Weeks 6-10

      WEEK 6: 10/8/10

               PASSING A LEGEND

As Al Michaels said last night on NBC, “there are records, and then there are records.” Well, Johnny Unitas’ streak of 47 straight games with a touchdown pass was a record. And Drew Brees passed it. He has thrown a touchdown pass in 48 consecutive games. Wow. That’s all anyone can say.

   Drew Brees was the first pick in the second round of the 2001 draft. That seems like a pretty odd place for the all-time record holder in single season passing yards to be taken, but that’s where he was. Why was he taken there? Scouts said he was too short. He’s barely six feet tall and often has to crane his neck to see over his offensive linemen. He’s around the same height as Russell Wilson, another QB that the scouts knock for being too short. However, the big thing that separates Brees from Wilson and most other QBs in NFL history is his smarts. There are few better in the National Football league at reading and reacting to a defense. To me, the sign of an elite quarterback is when an announcer says both, “You’ve gotta put pressure on this guy to beat him” and, “he absolutely loves when the defense blitzes him” in close proximity to each other. Nobody illustrated this catch 22 more thoroughly than Drew Brees. If a defense plays zone and lets Drew Brees sit back in the pocket, they have no chance of effectively stopping him. He has such great chemistry with his receivers that they’ll reliably find a pocket in the defense to work in and he’ll throw to that area all day. Oftentimes, zone defenses also surrender the deep out route, and few are better at throwing that route than Drew Brees. However, if a defense brought the blitz and went man-to-man, they were playing a very dangerous game. Look at what the Detroit Lions did in the 2011 NFC Wild Card round. They brought the blitz, and Drew Brees identified where the mismatches were all day. Darren Sproles on an outside linebacker? Brees found him early and often when the Lions were foolish enough to rush five guys. And if the Lions rushed six, forget about it. That left Marques Colston one on one outside the numbers or Robert Meachem uncovered in the seam. It was a thorough domination that could only be delivered by one of the best quarterbacks of our generation.

   Drew Brees is unlike any other quarterback in the league because of what he means to the city of New Orleans. After Hurricane Katrina devastated the wards, Drew Brees and his teammates were one of the first responders. That 2006 team stood for something much larger than football. They were one of the first rays of hope for a city that desperately needed something, anything, to cling to. The Monday Night game against the Falcons that doubled as the Saints’ first game back at the Superdome was one of the top five moments of the past decade in the NFL. Over the course of that season, Brees became the leader of that team and a symbol of the notion that brighter days were ahead for New Orleans. After he led them to a Super Bowl victory in 2009, Brees instantly became forever beloved by New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are most prominently tied to the Packers and the Patriots. For anybody who was affected by Katrina, Drew Brees is most prominently tied to the city of New Orleans, not the Saints. That’s why it amazed me so much that the Saints were willing to low-ball Brees in contract negotiations. He’s so much more than just a quarterback. He’s a living testament to everything the city of New Orleans went through over the years.

   I’d still say that Johnny Unitas’ streak was more significant. He did it in an era where teams threw the ball far less. Unitas was one of the early innovators of the forward pass, and his streak came in the time before quarterbacks threw the ball 40 times per game. Plus, the offensive machinations of Bill Walsh and the pass heavy offenses they encouraged would not manifest themselves for another decade or two. Even the early passing offenses of Don Coryell were only starting to take effect in the NFL. So, for the sheer originality of it, I’d still say Johnny U’s streak was more impressive.

   However, that should not serve to discredit what Drew Brees has done. He broke a record that has stood for over 50 years and held by one of the game’s all time greats. His smarts, quick release, and footwork are used by other coaches as examples of how to correctly play the quarterback position. He’s one of the most real, generous, and respected players in the league whose legacy will live on long after he’s retired. A couple of days before the game, Philip Rivers said of Brees:

“He deserves all the recognition he’s received. I was only with him those two years kind of early in his ascent to where he is today. He was a heck of a player then, obviously before the Super Bowl and the other great things he’s done since he’s come to New Orleans. It’s certainly been impressive to see.”

You know, he still is a little short.

       ARE THE PACKERS GOOD?

   The Chuck Pagano story will rightfully overshadow a developing storyline of the 2012 season. Are the Packers good? Seriously, are they good or are they pretenders? Well, let’s take a look at how the Packers’ offense tends to operate.

   It’s no secret what the Packers’ offense likes to do. When a team has an all-star quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, they’re going to throw the football early and often. And that’s just what the Packers have done in pretty much every conceivable way. The West Coast offense that the Packers like to run emphasized using the short pass to set up the long pass and above all else, not turning the football over. Teams like the Chargers and the Lions like to take deep shots early and often, whereas the Packers often preferred if Aaron Rodgers read his routes from short to deep. You’ll notice that on a lot of Aaron Rodgers’ deep throws, he gets either an inordinate amount of time in the pocket or the receiver is wide open. This is a direct result of the defense either saying,“They’re throwing short passes all game: let’s get aggressive.” (thus, the receiver is wide open) or, “He’s gearing up for the deep pass soon, we need to call in our 6 DB Package.” (thus, Aaron Rodgers has loads of time).  The preference of the Packers’ offense seems to be the intermediate pass or the short pass that becomes an intermediate/long pass through yards after the catch. Teams that run West Coast offenses (such as the Packers) or Spread offenses (such as the Patriots) are going to use the slot receiver and the short passing game as a substitute for the running game. In the case of the Patriots, Wes Welker and Julian Edelman rotate as the primary slot receiver. In the Packers’ case, multiple receivers fill that role. More often than not, opponents will be so fixated on stopping that short passing game because the Packers had no alternative method of gaining four or five yards a play. However, the most deadly part of the Packers’ offense is the fact that the short, intermediate, and deep passing game are all interchangeable. Opponents see a lot of four and five wide receiver looks, so they have to counter with at least one matchup that is a mismatch in favor of the Packers because the Packers usually have a deeper receiving corps than their opponent’s secondary can effectively cover. Aaron Rodgers distributes the ball better than almost every other quarterback in the league because there is a mismatch on almost every play. Jordy Nelson sometimes found himself lined up with a slot corner, safety, or even linebacker. Sounds great to Aaron Rodgers! So if Rodgers hits Jordy Nelson on a deep strike, the other team starts getting more conservative and backing their corners off the line of scrimmage. If Greg Jennings sees a corner playing off on his outside shoulder, he’ll just run the “in” route and pick up an easy first down. The most crucial part of this is Rodgers’ chemistry with his receivers. Greg Jennings, Jermichael FInley, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones have all been a part of the Packers for a couple of years now. When Rodgers can read a coverage shell the same way his receivers read it, he’s already got the inside track to winning the battle.

   OK, so what’s changed? First of all, defenses are now more committed to making the Packers run. When the Packers faced the Niners and the Seahawks, Aaron Rodgers tended to see a lot of Cover 2 Zone defenses that involved two deep safeties. Those safeties’ jobs? Keep things in front of them. The safeties in both of those games simply read and reacted to what they saw developing seven yards upfield. Deep safeties that are assigned to cover large portions of the field are able to mitigate the threat of a deep throw right off the bat. Granted, it will never be enough to completely stop Aaron Rodgers. However, it will significantly lessen the damage done by the West Coast attack. The basic coverage scheme on a Packers wide receiver consists of a quick jam at the line of scrimmage, then immediately backing into zone and letting the receiver wander into someone else’s domain. But what’s to stop the Packers from dinking and dunking their way to victory? The offensive line. The Packers’ pass protection has been less than stellar so far, allowing 21 sacks of Rodgers. That trails only the Cardinals for most in the league. It’s getting to the point that if Aaron Rodgers can’t get rid of the football immediately after his initial drop, he’s going to find himself on the turf. When opponents start to put pressure on Rodgers, it begins to undermine the foundation of the Packers’ offense.

   The larger issue here is that a one-dimensional team can’t last for long. The reasons why the Packers aren’t finding the same success this year are the same reasons that the Wildcat and Option offenses aren’t as successful anymore. Without some other dimension, the Packers’ passing game is only the astronomical monster it was in 2011 until defenses catch up. The Packers have no running game, can’t effectively stop opposing teams who run the football, and keep going back to the same tricks. Great football dynasties, such as the 2000s Patriots, are able to adapt when other teams figure them out. It’s now time to see if the Pack can do the same.

   This isn’t to suggest that the Packers are a bad team. I’m sticking with my Super Bowl pick and I’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The Packers might have the single best offensive player in the league and the second best pass rusher in the league (Clay Matthews). This team hasn’t been forcing turnovers like it was last year, and their victory over the Bears shows that they win if they can control the turnover battle. The Pack are absolutely in trouble, and a 2-3 record better serve as a wake-up call. But after a little while, the great ones always figure it out. Over the next few weeks, we’ll see if and how the Packers are able to adapt.

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 6

• Thank you to the San Francisco 49ers for blowing out the Buffalo Bills this week. After seeing the Niners systematically dismantle the Bills into pieces, I suddenly don’t feel as bad about the Jets losing to them. In fact, I feel 90% as bad, tops. As an interesting side note, we saw Alex Smith take some shots down the field in this one. Could Alex Smith be a little more than a game manager? We’ll see.
• Poor Buffalo. Just when they think there’s something going, it gets killed. They had a 5-2 record in 2011 and finished the season at 6-10. It looked like C.J. Spiller was going to be the premier running back in Buffalo after a stellar first two weeks until he injured his knee. The Bills overpaid for Mario Williams and Mark Anderson in the offseason, two guys that had 85.5 sacks combined before they came to Buffalo. They currently have 2.5 sacks combined and are both on pace for career lows. Oh, and the defense has allowed over 1,000 total yards in just the last two games. Don’t forget about that. I feel bad for the Bills.
• I’ll take the Steelers in a win over the Titans. I’m not sure whether the Steelers are as good as I thought they were going to be, but the Titans are easily one of the league’s five worst teams. This one really shouldn’t be close, yet I feel like it will be. I don’t have confidence in Pittsburgh yet, and I feel like the Titans will hang with them for two or three quarters. In the end, Pittsburgh should put them away with a long touchdown drive in the fourth. I’ll take the Steelers by 8 or 9 points. L Titans 26, Steelers 23
• What in the name of Newton is going on with Carolina’s offense? They’ve played exactly two good games all year, and one of those games came against the Saints. My theory is that the Panthers have outsmarted themselves with the option system. There were a couple of times in their game against the Giants where Cam Newton paused at the point of exchange between him and the running back for too long and almost fumbled. The option seems like it’s so contingent on reading a defense that it becomes a battle to not tip your hand first on every play. And while Newton tries to read the defense, the defense reads him more effectively. ICarolina needs to come up with something new before they fall to 1-5.

                WEEK 6 PICKS: 10-10-12

RAIDERS AT FALCONS This is going to be a yawner. The line on this one is Atlanta +9 and it quite frankly cannot be high enough. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/ Roddy White+Historically Awful Raiders secondary= 30+ point blowout. The NFL is a firm believer in actually playing the games, and I have no disagreement with that. But if there ever were a game that was the equivalent of a gimme putt in golf, this is it. I’ll take Atlanta by a score of 48-17. W Falcons 23, Raiders 20

BENGALS AT BROWNS I’ll take the Browns. First of all, divisional games are always going to be tough, no matter the opponent. Second of all, I’m not entirely sure that the Bengals are that good. Their secondary is bad, they don’t have an especially great running game, and their entire identity is Andy Dalton throwing the ball to A.J. Green. Neither Armon Binns nor Andrew Hawkins have truly stepped up into a number two role.  And that leads me to my last point. Joe Haden is going to be back for this game to cover A.J. Green. Seeing as how he is the best player on the Browns, how is this not a big deal? Isn’t this totally taking away what the Bengals do best? I haven’t been impressed by the Bengals yet, and I’ll keep going against them until I see a really good game from them. W Browns 34, Bengals 24

RAMS AT DOLPHINS I’m erring on the side of time zones severely messing with a team’s psyche. The last time a team went into Miami from the West Coast was the Raiders in Week 2, and they were destroyed by three touchdowns. Are the Rams really that much better than the Raiders? The biggest advantage that the Rams had over the Cardinals in their last game was the Cards’ atrocious left tackle, Bobby Massie, and Kevin Kolb being due for a reminder that he was still, in fact, Kevin Kolb. The Dolphins are getting Reggie Bush back for this game, so expect a healthy dose of him in a 23-16 Dolphins win. In a weak AFC, this Dolphins team is developing as kind of a sleeper pick to sneak into the playoffs. They’ve got a great O-Line, a good running game, and a run defense that is allowing .5 Yards Per Carry less than anyone in the league. Stay tuned for a potential Dolphins’ sleeper. W Dolphins 17, Rams 14

COLTS AT JETS Even though I hate myself for doing it, I’m going to have to take the Colts. Why wouldn’t I? The Jets don’t have a single playmaker on either side of the football except for maybe Antonio Cromartie, and he isn’t going to change a game single-handedly. The Colts’ greatest weakness, a deficient secondary, will not be exposed whatsoever by the Jets’ rotating cast of Keystone Kops wide receivers. The Colts are still emotionally charged because of Chuck Pagano’s illness, so they’ll probably be playing above their ceiling. Meanwhile, the crowd is going to be so unhappy and Tebow-crazy at the Meadowlands that this might as well be a road game for the Jets. I’ll put this one down as another upset; Colts 21, Jets 17. L Jets 35, Colts 9

LIONS AT EAGLES For the first time since the American Flag scored a knockout victory over Brandon Weeden, I’m taking the Eagles. It’s sort of unbelievable how much of a one-dimensional team that the Lions have become. It has become increasingly clear that this is the team that was screaming regression before the season. They came back from a 20 point deficit twice in 2011, scored seven defensive touchdowns, and had an offensive game plan that mostly consisted of “Throw it to Calvin Johnson as much as possible and hope Matt Stafford doesn’t get hurt.” Just like Carolina and Green Bay, it’s possible that the league has started to figure the Lions out. On the other hand, the Lions lost two games against the Titans and the Vikings that they had no business losing. The jury is still very much out on the Lions and there’s no significantly advantageous matchup for either team that I can see, so I’ll take the home team. I’m going with Philly in another one or two point win. L Lions 26, Eagles 23 (OT)

CHIEFS VS BUCS I have lost any and all confidence in the Kansas City Chiefs this year. The Bucs haven’t played a complete game yet, but they won’t have to in a home game against the worst team in football that isn’t located in Cleveland. I’ll take the Bucs by a score of 30-16. W Bucs 38, Chiefs 10

COWBOYS AT RAVENS I think that the Ravens’ offense just had an off week against the Chiefs. Every team has a bad game, and I think we saw theirs. Also, why, oh why are the Ravens ranked twentieth in rushing attempts? You have Ray Rice, so USE RAY RICE. Joe Flacco is going to be throwing into Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne this week, so he’s probably going to make his fair share of mistakes.The whole “unleash Joe Flacco” campaign was fun, but it’s time for the Ravens to get back to what they do best. They need to take an early lead, maybe give Flacco his pass attempts in the first quarter, and then take the keys away from him and give them to Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. The only way the Cowboys win is if the Ravens have a hand in their efforts. I’ll take Baltimore; 27-19. W Ravens 31, Cowboys 29

BILLS AT CARDINALS Do the Bills have the worst defense in the league? I mean, it’s certainly possible, right? After all that money spent on a clear attempt to drastically overhaul the defense, the Bills somehow made it worse. Absolutely brutal. The Cards have a number of weaknesses (namely, their entire offense except for Larry Fitzgerald), and the Bills are set up perfectly to give the Cards free passes on all of them. The Bills have no pass rush, a mediocre secondary, and a gimmicky passing game that apparently forbids a ball to be thrown over 15 yards downfield. I’ll take Arizona in a blowout. L Bills 19, Cardinals 16 (OT)

PATRIOTS AT SEAHAWKS I’m tempted to pick another upset here, but I’m not. It’s uncanny that after only two consecutive good games, I’m totally sold on the Pats’ running game. The committee of Woodhead-Ridley-Bolden-Sometimes Vereen can attack a defense in so many different ways depending on which one is in the game. The run blocking has been absolutely flawless in the last two games. However, it’s going to face a big test on the road in Seattle, who I haven’t given up on yet. I’m still telling every football fan who will listen how awesome Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman are. The Seattle run defense allows 3.2 yards per carry, tied for second best in the league. However, they’ve faced some pretty bad running teams so far. It’s not extremely difficult to allow that few rushing yards when you’re facing a steady diet of Ryan WIlliams, an old Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, and the Panthers’ suddenly decrepit offense. I think that the Pats’ running game will carry them and create opportunities down the field in a 27-17 win. As a quick aside, it will be very interesting to see if Seattle unleashes Russell Wilson in this game. So far, it’s been nothing but dumpoffs, curls, slants, and fraudulent Hail Marys. I’m expecting Seattle to start the game with a few deep balls to challenge Devin McCourty. L Seahawks 24, Patriots 23

GIANTS AT 49ERS This is another game where I thought about going upset and ended.... you know what? UPSET!!!! If I’ve learned anything about the Giants, it’s that they play their best football when the chips are down. Every single one of their best games have been against good teams on the road. And there’s no way that the Niners can possibly be as good as the Jets and Bills have made them look. Something tells me that this is going to be a bit of a let-down game for the Niners. Plus, it seems like Ahmad Bradshaw is discovering his mojo after a 200 yard day last week against the Browns. While there’s no way he’s going to do that again, it shows that the Giants might be able to have some success running the football. The only team to have success running the ball against the Niners this year was the Vikings, and they won. The Giants are a team that can execute the fundamentals, and that’s why they’re going to come out ahead in this one. W Giants 26, Niners 3

VIKINGS AT REDSKINS I’m taking Minnesota in this one. The Washington Redskins’ tackles are absolutely awful after a season-ending injury to Trent Williams. So we could potentially see Jared Allen matched up with Tyler Polumbus for four quarters. Are any Washington fans out there confident in Polumbus? No? I thought not. I’ll take the Vikings over the Redskins in a low scoring game where RG3 gets sacked in the middle of the Redskins’ last drive. The Vikings just have too much talent on the edges of that defense to allow a Redskins’ upset. L Redskins 38, Vikings 26

PACKERS AT TEXANS One of the biggest problems that the Packers have this season that I neglected to mention is that they continue to lose the battle up front. The offensive line has now been manhandled by both the defensive fronts of both the Seahawks and Colts. J.J. Watt was probably salivating as he watched what Chris Clemons was able to do to them in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Packers are absolutely a team that can be beaten with misdirection. I have not seen disciplined play from the Packers so far, and they tend to be too aggressive at times. The Texans are a team that likes to run a lot of play-action and misdirection handoffs to punish undisciplined teams, and I feel like that’s what they’ll do to Green Bay. Houston: 35-24. L Packers 42, Texans 24

BRONCOS AT CHARGERS I’m riding this rule until it kills me: NEVER trust the Chargers or Norv Turner in a primetime game unless they’re playing against a faulty long snapper named Travis Goethel. I’ll take Peyton Manning, possibly the best night game QB of all time, against the worst big game coach in recent memory. Denver wins this one. W Broncos 35, Chargers 24

               WEEK 7: 10-15-12

       ARE THE RAVENS WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!?

   Maybe, but maybe not. You know what this calls for? PRO-CON COMPARISON!

Pros: The Ravens are 5-1 and would have a share of the first seed in the AFC if the Texans were to lose tonight against the Packers (the Texans are down 14-0 as I’m writing this). Even though the season is still young, it’s pretty much safe to hand Baltimore the division. Their closest competition are the Bengals, who are two games back and don’t have the Ravens’ talent. The Steelers, who were projected to battle with Baltimore for the divisional lead throughout the season, are currently two games back. They have an offense that ranks tenth in the league in DVOA and a running game that ranks fourth in DVOA. Timeout: Notice how my use of things like DVOA, VOA, and yards per game increased over the course of the season and my use of total yardage statistics decreased. I gradually learned which stats were important over the course of the season. Ray Rice is a unique offensive weapon, and there are only a few other teams in the league that can claim to have something similar. He is usable in all scenarios; he can bounce outside the tackles and use his superior acceleration, run between the tackles and follow his blockers to daylight, catch a checkdown pass, or help out with blocking. Any team that plays the Ravens will always have to think about Rice, no matter the situation. This is why Baltimore can have a 65/35 pass/run ratio and sell Joe Flacco as a legitimate threat to beat opposing defenses; because of the threat that Rice brings to the table. And speaking of Flacco, it seems like his maturation as an NFL QB is complete. He’s 27 and entering the prime of his career. I’m not seeing Flacco make as many rookie mistakes as he used to. Not only that, but he’s getting more and more comfortable throwing the deep pass. Of course, it helps that he has speedster Torrey Smith. Ravens’ beat writers were buzzing all through training camp about how much Smith has become a multi-dimensional receiver. I thought that he was just a more athletic Bernard Berrian- somebody whose only significant calling card was the forty yard vertical- but I was wrong, big-time. He’s really worked on his route-running and is on track to become a great receiver in the years to come. On the defensive side of the football, veterans Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed anchor a steady defense that was among the best in the league in 2011. Playing from behind against the Ravens is one of the most difficult things that any QB will have to do in the NFL because they will bring pressure, pressure, and more pressure on the quarterback from every conceivable formation. The Ravens have established themselves in the 3-4 scheme over a couple of seasons and have a great mix of both veterans and young guys under the tutelage of head coach Jon Harbaugh. At first glance, there’s not much to find fault with about this team.

CONS: And then you take a second glance. The Ravens are currently ranked 28th in total defense. 28th! Time Out: Apparently, I wasn’t totally off the total yardage statistics bandwagon at this point. Not only that, but the Ravens have surrendered consecutive 200 yard rushing performances for the first time since a year that I’m too lazy to look up. I dismissed it when the Chiefs were able to amass 214 rushing yards because every defense has a bad day once in awhile. Besides, the Chiefs ran the ball 51 times and passed it 17 times. Whenever there’s that kind of imbalance in an offense, the defense is doing something right. But this past week against the Cowboys? How is giving up 227 rushing yards against the Cowboys explainable in any way? The Cowboys’ O-Line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards (see footballoutsiders.com for more detail), so there is absolutely no reason why that should have happened. The Cowboys’ run/pass ratio was almost 1:1 (it was actually 41:36), and they possessed the ball for 40 minutes. Another poor showing by the Ravens’ defense is alarming for a team that built their identity on stopping opposing offenses in key situations. Not only that, but they’ve had injury problems. Cornerback Lardarius Webb, one of the best young corners in the league, could be out for the season with an ACL tear. Ray Lewis may or may not have torn his triceps. If he did, then he’ll most likely be done for the year. While he’s not as athletic as he was in his twenties, he’s probably the most knowledgeable player on any defense in the NFL. Center and middle linebacker are the two positions where teams can’t afford to have injuries because of their role in coordinating the offense line/defensive front. Losing a leader like Ray Lewis is going to further weaken this Baltimore defense.

   Still not running away from the Ravens yet? I’ve got one more area of concern, and that is their record in close games. They’re 4-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, which is a statistic that history has shown to be largely random. I hate to play the “what if” game with football because changing the outcome of even one play can have unknowable ramifications on later plays. However, it’s true that Jason Garrett’s terrible time management skills (buy the book for details) giftwrapped the Ravens a win that statistics say they had no business winning. The Cowboys outgained, out ball-controlled, and outmuscled the Ravens by a healthy margin. Winning on a mismanaged clock and a missed field goal took a little bit of luck. And that’s before we get to the Patriots game, where Justin Tucker’s field goal could have easily been called no good (It went directly over the right goalpost. Adam Carolla was horrified.) So if the breaks were to go against the Ravens, they could be 2-3 right now and every talking head in the NFL world would be having obligatory “what’s wrong with the (insert underperforming team here)” conversations about them. It’s definitely not a stretch. So while they might be able to cruise to a playoff berth, they’re highly susceptible to an early loss in the playoffs if they keep playing like this.

I don’t know which one is the real Baltimore Ravens, but I have a feeling that we’ll gain more insight after their marquee matchup with the Texans this week.

           WHO’S GOOD IN THE AFC?

   Well, the answer to that question has multiple parts. There are a number of teams that are on different levels right now. Some are better than they’ve played, some are unquestionably worse. So, without further ado, let’s break it down by division.

AFC East- Shockingly enough, all four teams in this division are at 3-3 right now. And while the New York Jets are technically the division leader, the New England Patriots are still the best team by far. I’m frantically snapping screenshots of the standings on my phone so I can look back at them in Week 15 when the Jets are 6-7. Maybe it isn’t a foregone conclusion that the Patriots win the division, but it’s readily apparent that the lead is New England’s to lose. And the team that they are most likely to lose it to may very well be the Dolphins instead of the Jets. They can run the ball effectively and have a killer run defense. They’re the only team in the division with any type of identity besides the Patriots. But 10-6 might be good enough to take the East this year, and the Pats are the only team that has the talent and the schedule to get there. Here is the Pats’ schedule for the next seven weeks: home for the Jets, at the Rams, bye, home for the Bills, home for the Colts, at the Jets, at the Dolphins. It’s not out of the question for the Pats to enter their showdown with the Houston Texans at 9-3. New England has the inside track to win the division, and it’s going to take something catastrophic to take that away.

AFC North- Once again, we have a clear division frontrunner. The Baltimore Ravens might have played above their true ceiling for a significant portion of the season so far, but there’s nobody in the North can rise up to challenge them. A healthy Steelers team might be able to match them, but it’s clear that the Steelers’ defense that is ranked 26th in DVOA barely resembles your father’s Steelers. Baltimore is without a doubt the most complete team in the division, and every other team has a glaring weakness. For the Steelers, it’s their offensive line and pass rush. For the Bengals, it’s their secondary. For the Browns, it’s their everything not named Trent Richardson, Joe Haden, or Joe Thomas. Even a semi-washed up Ravens team should easily capture the AFC North crown.

AFC South- A more clear division winner than the 2012 Texans have never existed. I’m not even going to waste the time needed to give an argument to validate them. Congrats, Texans, you won the South already.

AFC West- This seems like it’s a two team race between the Chargers and the Broncos, numbers one and three on my list of NFL teams I don’t trust (the Eagles are number two). Reports about Peyton Manning’s arm seem exaggerated to me. Yes, he doesn’t have nearly the arm strength that he had pre-surgery, but everybody should have expected that. What, you thought a guy in his late thirties with a fused spine should throw like he did in college? Absolutely not. Time Out: Throughout the book, I’ve been posing rhetorical questions that combatively accuse you of thinking things that you probably weren’t thinking. I apologize if you weren’t actually thinking about these things. The Broncos don’t have a 100% Manning, but they don’t have Charlie Frye either. Time Out: A reference that’s both obscure and dated. I’ve outdone myself. He’s still a perfectly capable NFL quarterback. They might not have much else, but they at least have that. I’m going to hold comment on the Chargers because I still don’t know what to make of them. Philip Rivers looks improved this year; he’s stopped throwing into double coverage as much. However, the running game is still struggling to find its way and the defense is only average. In fact, the Chargers rank sixteenth in DVOA at 5% worse than the league average. This leaves an intriguing possibility. Could someone else win the West? Seeing as how they have not held a lead in regulation this season, I’m writing off the Chiefs and saying a sweet goodnight to my 2012 AFC sleeper pick. That leaves the Raiders. Hmmmm... Assuming that the Broncos win tonight’s game, that would leave the Raiders 1.5 games behind the division lead. Besides a November road game against the Ravens, the Raiders have nothing but winnable games left. These include two pushover games against the Chiefs, a game against the Jags, a game against the Bucs, and a home game against the Browns. Why couldn’t Oakland go 5-0 in those games? Their secondary is terrible and they’d almost certainly be run out of the stadium by whoever they face in the playoffs, but they could still get the division. My official pick to win the division for now is the Broncos. However, I in no way feel confident about that.

Wild Cards- Now this is where things get interesting. I count five teams (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Steelers, and the Chargers/Broncos) who could get into the playoffs as a Wild Card. Barring anything completely out of left field, these five teams are going to go back and forth all season for a chance at the playoffs. Only the Chargers are above .500 for the season so far. On my quest to hijack every Football Outsiders statistic for the book, I came across a statistic called DAVE. It combines pre-season projections with DVOA in an attempt to forecast how a certain team will fare for the rest of the season. Out of the teams I mentioned, the Broncos placed first, ranking in at number eight. The team that came next, at number 12? The Miami Dolphins. Again, identity matters. And as a side note, I’m on the verge of admitting that I completely screwed up in evaluating Tannehill. The next team, which is ranked at number 13? The Pittsburgh Steelers. Because the great teams always figure it out. The Steelers’ continuity is going to serve them well when it comes time for the Wild Card races in December. DAVE despises both the Bengals and the Jets, who are 25th and 24th respectively. DAVE pretty much agrees with my thought process right now; the Steelers and the Dolphins are two teams that know what they’re supposed to be and have the talent to get there. They’re good, the division leaders are elite (with the exception of Denver/San Diego), and everybody else is on the outside looking in. Whether the Jets, Bengals, or Chargers can kick their game up a notch and grab a Wild Card spot remains to be seen

        ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 7

• . Remember when I said last week that it would be interesting to see what the Packers do to rebound after the loss to Indy? Packers 42, Texans 24. Yep, very interesting indeed. That was the 2011 Aaron Rodgers. Once Rodgers gets locked into the zone and starts throwing bullets to covered receivers that somehow end up right in their hands, the other team might as well pack it in. That was unbelievable. The Pack needed a big win in the worst way and Aaron Rodgers just said, “I’ve got this”, then threw for six touchdowns. That’s what a team leader is supposed to do and that’s why Rodgers is still the best QB in the league.
• What did I say about not trusting the San Diego Chargers in primetime games? This was a new low even for the Chargers. Really, you can’t hold on to a 24 point lead? It’s getting to be that bad? That was just a perfect storm of turnovers, Norv Turner, Peyton Manning getting hot at the worst possible time, Norv Turner, bad defense, and more Norv Turner.
• Quote from some dumb writer named Andrew Goldstein from a section that he wrote this past Friday

RAIDERS AT FALCONS This is going to be a yawner. The line on this one is Atlanta +9 and it quite frankly cannot be high enough. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/ Roddy White+Historically Awful Raiders secondary= 30+ point blowout. The NFL is a firm believer in actually playing the games, and I have no disagreement with that. But if there ever were a game that was the equivalent of a gimme putt in golf, this is it. I’ll take Atlanta by a score of 48-17.

Atlanta 23, Oakland 20 (OT).The lesson, as has been true so many other times, is that I’m an idiot.

• Isn’t it unbelievable that the Chiefs have not led in regulation this year? Through six games, the Kansas City Chiefs have only held a lead in overtime. Once the RedZone channel put the Chiefs’ game on and Andrew Siciliano said, “The Chiefs could take their first lead of the year on this drive”, Brady Quinn threw an interception. Kansas City is on a bye this week and then is home for Oakland after that, so it’s possible that KC could finish the month of October without ever holding a regulation lead. Pitiful.
• I have one last shocking statistic. Not to go all Tim Kurkjian on you, but guess how many times the Carolina Panthers have called a designed running play on third down as of October 17th. Just guess; I’ll wait.

(Cue Jeopardy Music)

   And..... time! Well, here’s the answer. Three. The Panthers have intentionally run the ball on third down exactly three times all year. With a backfield that they’re paying a combined 50 million dollars to. Why is everybody going nuts over how awesome OC Rob Chudzinski’s running game is if he won’t even use it when he needs it the most?

                       WEEK 7 PICKS

SEAHAWKS VS NINERS The Niners could not be more of a lock in this one. I’ll admit that the Seahawks’ win over the Pats was absolutely impressive. They deserve all the credit in the world for it. However, the road has not been kind to Seattle this year. They’ve gone 3-0 so far at home and 1-2 on the road. Both of their road losses have come against divisional opponents (Arizona and St Louis) that confused Russell Wilson and goaded him into making bad throws. History has also shown us that teams coming off an emotional high are bound to hit an emotional low the next week before balancing out. After a huge win over the Pats, it only makes sense that the Seahawks are going to come out a little bit flat on a short week against a ticked off Niners team. I’ll take San Fran: 28-17. W Niners 13, Seahawks 6

TITANS AT BILLS This game makes the NBA Pre-Season look watchable. I’ll take the Bills in this one because there’s no way the Titans are winning two games in a row. Their defense is just too atrocious. There’s nobody on this entire Titans team that can stop C.J. Spiller. Or Stevie Johnson. I wish I could give you more insight on this one, but I can’t find interesting things to say about either team. When the RedZone Channel shows this game, that’s my cue for a bathroom or food break. L Titans 35, Bills 34

BROWNS AT COLTS Swiiiiing and a miss, strike two on the early games. Looks like it’s just going to be one of those weeks. I think that Andrew Luck is going to find his second and third options very often in this game.This Browns’ defense is just an unbelievable mosh pit of poor tackling, and I think Luck will exploit that by throwing the ball in the middle of the field to Fleener as well as isolating the speedy T.Y. Hilton in space. I can definitely imagine a scenario where the Browns pull off an upset, but I’m playing it safe on this one. I’ll go with the Colts to win by 10, and at least two big penalties against Browns’ cornerback Buster Skrine. I can’t emphasize enough how terribly he’s played so far. W Colts 17, Browns 13

CARDINALS AT VIKINGS And we finally have our first good early game. I think you’re going to see a big game from Jared Allen as he matches up against D’Bobbie Mastiste (I figured we should just combine both bad Cardinals’ tackles into one super-bad tackle) and the rest of the Cards’ hit parade of atrocious offensive linemen. The Vikings are a good team with a solid offense that just had a bad game last week against Washington. We all knew it had to happen eventually. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are free falling (yes they’re freeeee, freeeeeee faaaalling) after losses to both St Louis and Buffalo. In those losses, they gave up a combined total of 14 sacks and made Mario Williams look like not a total waste of money. I’m taking Minnesota by at least 7. W Vikings 21, Cardinals 14

PACKERS AT RAMS The Pack is back! I’ll take the Pack in another big win simply because it feels like Aaron Rodgers is in the zone right now. I don’t think that the St Louis secondary is deep enough to handle all the weapons that the Packers’ offense can utilize. I’d expect a big day from either Randall Cobb or James Jones and the Packers to win 35-20. I’m really sold on the fact that Aaron Rodgers might have just had a slow start to the season. We’ll see after this week. W Packers 30, Rams 20

REDSKINS AT GIANTS UPSET PICK!!! Even though Bill Barnwell has successfully debunked the myth that the Giants’ one or two terrible home games per year are worse than any other team’s, the fact is that they still happen. And if the Giants still have another bad home game left to play this year, wouldn’t it make sense that it comes against a divisional opponent that can effectively attack the Giants’ secondary? I’d think so. Don’t forget that as impressive as the Giants looked in that win over San Fran, they’ve looked equally unimpressive in losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. I think that the Giants are most susceptible to teams who know them the best, and the Redskins beat this same Giants team twice last year. With the arrival of RG3, I think it’s not a stretch to make it three in a row. Redskins: 34-19. L Giants 27, Redskins 23

SAINTS AT BUCS Why not go for the Saints? I’m a huge believer in the power of Drew Brees after a bye week. I also happen to believe that the Bucs are not a good team. The only complete game that they’ve played so far has been against the Chiefs, quite possibly the worst team in the league. Now that Aqib Talib has been suspended for admitting to Adderall usage, this Bucs secondary has nobody except Mark Barron, and he’s struggled in coverage this year. The Saints are going to pick up right where they left off against the Chargers. I’ll take them in a 37-28 win. W Saints 35, Bucs 28

COWBOYS AT PANTHERS This is a must-win game for both teams. I really shouldn’t say that, because Carolina currently looks like it’s at the point of no return for the 2012 season. The wisdom of re-signing the core players of 2010’s 2-14 season is starting to blot out anything that Cam Newton is doing. The Boys have fantastic coverage corners in Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, but they’re also very physical players. When going against the Panthers, nothing is more important than setting the edge. You can’t let Newton or DeAngelo Williams run outside the tackles. Carr and Claiborne are one of those rare corner duos that are also superb tacklers for their position. Dallas is too good of a football team to be eliminated from contention this early in the season. The same cannot be said for the Panthers. I’ll take Dallas. W Cowboys 19, Panthers 14

RAVENS AT TEXANS Welcome to the marquee matchup of Week 7. However, it feels like this may not be the best game when all is said and done. The Ravens are going to miss injured corner Lardarius Webb in the worst way because he could defend nickel runs. As Michael Lombardi pointed out on a recent episode of the BS report, nickel runs (teams lining up with three wide receivers and a tight end, then handing it off to the RB) are becoming a bigger and bigger part of the league because it limits the number of defenders that can be near the line of scrimmage at any given time. Lombardi identified Webb as one of the rare slot corners that could both cover a receiver like a cornerback and play the run like a linebacker. Since he’s out, the Ravens have a pretty poor run defense. They do have Haloti Ngata, but he’s not going to be very useful because the Texans like to employ stretch runs and zone blocking principles to spread defenses from side to side. Also, he may or may not have a debilitating knee injury. That, too, might be a problem. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are just going to repeatedly run away from Ngata and into various holes created by their terrific offensive line. I feel like this is a game where both teams aren’t going to play their best, but the one who can run the ball more effectively will win. And right now, I feel like that team is the Texans. 21-10 Texans is my call. W Texans 43, Ravens 13

JAGS AT RAIDERS This game and Jets-Pats are our only two late games of the day. I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in this game, so I’m staying tuned to Jets-Pats for the late slot instead of going for the Red Zone channel. I feel like the Raiders are going to get back on track in this one for two reasons. First of all, it’s always invigorating to an upstart team when they play one of the league’s best teams and keep it close. Second of all, I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever in Blaine Gabbert after the time zone shift does a number on him. Shockingly enough, I had no confidence in Blaine Gabbert without him flying cross country into the most hostile environment in football. I’d take the Raiders in a blowout. W Raiders 26, Jaguars 23 (OT)

JETS AT PATS I would really love to pretend that the Jets’ blowout win over the Colts was a sign of things to come, but I know better. In SAT prep, I was told that the average SAT subject gets the easy problems right, about half the medium problems right, and none of the hard problems right. As I heard that, I thought, “Wow, this describes the 2011-2013 Jets to a T.” They will never fail to make themselves look good by beating up on the worst teams, they’ll beat average teams about half the time, and they will never beat good teams. The only thing that can really rattle Tom Brady is pressure, and the Jets have consistently failed to bring it. This is the week that Pats fans will breathe a collective sigh of relief as Brady has one of those, “28-38 320 yards 2 TDs 0 INTs” kind of games and the new law firm of Woodhead-Ridley-Bolden-Sometimes Vereen sinks the Jets by converting key intermediate third downs all day long. It’s exactly what happened in Week 5 of 2011, and I have no doubt it will happen here as well. In fact, I’ll even predict the same score as that Week 5 game. 30-21 Pats. W Patriots 29, Jets 26 (OT)

STEELERS AT BENGALS Are the Steelers even that good? I really don’t know what to think here. Troy Polamalu is sitting this one out with a calf injury, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley have been getting minimal pressure on opposing QBs, and the Steelers rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass. Even though a lot of people say that the Steelers are shifting from a defensively-minded team to an offensively minded one, let’s not kid ourselves. The offense is staying at the same level that it performed at in the last two seasons and the defense is declining, so the offense just looks better by comparison. In fact, the offense might also be regressing. The Steelers currently rank 12th in offensive DVOA. They have not finished a season ranked that far down the list since 2008. Of course, we have a pretty small sample size with the Steelers (5 games to be exact). However, these stats show that the Steelers are moving downward, not laterally. I expect that downward slide to continue on the road against a divisional opponent that’s angry after a loss to Cleveland. I’ll take the Bengals by a score of 28-24. L Steelers 24, Bengals 17

LIONS AT BEARS I feel very comfortable about taking a 4-1 Chicago Bears team that’s at home and fresh off their bye week. I’m not especially impressed with the Lions’ defense, and I feel like the Bears are going to have the chance to outmuscle them. The 2011 Lions’ defense was predicated on making the big play, and those plays have not been made this year. Meanwhile, the Bears’ D has been making big plays virtually every single game. How about four defensive touchdowns in the last two games? Does that sound good? The only way that the Bears lose this game is if Jay Cutler has a significant hand in sinking the offense from within. The Bears are going to want to do what they always do with Cutler; keep it on the ground early and often with Matt Forte and Michael Bush while mixing in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Time Out: No clue why I was so in on Alshon Jeffery week after week. The Lions are undisciplined and will shoot themselves in the foot eventually: the Bears just can’t give them extra opportunities to redeem themselves. I don’t think that’ll be a problem in this one. I’ll go with the Bears, 23-17. W Bears 13, Lions 7

WEEK 8: 10-21-12

                       DRAFT PICKS REVISITED

It seems like everybody forgets about the events of the NFL draft except for a few select rookies that make some noise. Within about a year or so, nobody will remember who the fourth pick was in the 2012 draft (it was Andrew Goldstein favorite Matt Kalil, by the way). But I believe in accountability. I made some predictions back in May of 2012 when I started writing this book, and it’s time to revisit two of those predictions in particular to see how things are going.

Prediction Number One:Matt Kalil will end up being a better player than Trent Richardson.

I was kinda right and kinda wrong on this one. Let’s start with the wrong. I said that it was stupid of the Browns to trade up for Trent Richardson, which I’m not willing to admit that I’m completely wrong about yet. First of all, Richardson has missed significant time with rib injuries this season. And as Michael Vick could tell you, rib injuries are a seriously nagging problem that might force you to wear a military grade Kevlar vest during games (no, seriously. Vick essentially wears a bulletproof vest under his uniform). Secondly, Richardson is developing in an offense where opponents will single him out from the rest of the offense and stack the box to stop him because of the lack of respect paid to quarterback Brandon Weeden. However, I was wrong about his actual performance. He’s been everything that the Browns drafted him as and then some. Even legendary running back Jim Brown, who once called Richardson an “ordinary back” has changed his opinion on the first year player from Alabama. Still, that doesn’t explain why the Browns gave up extra picks when they probably could have just picked Trent Richardson fourth and kept those picks. Even though it was a relatively small prize, the Vikes played the Browns like a grand piano on that trade. They created a market for the third pick, capitalized on the Browns’ fears that another team was moving up to take Richardson, and then milked them for the extra picks.

   Meanwhile, I was right when I said that Kalil would be the better fit for the Vikings. People (yes, including me) forget that Adrian Peterson is a physical freak of nature that can come back from an ACL injury in a fraction of the expected time and play like nothing ever happened. The Vikes smartly realized that they needed to protect their investment, Christian Ponder, and they took steps to make that happen. My Uncle Jim, who is a huge Vikings’ fan, was gushing over how much better Kalil is than Charlie Johnson. I’m inclined to agree with him. Try to remember the last time your team either had a shaky offensive line or lost a great left tackle or center. You never noticed how good they were until you didn’t have them anymore, right? It’s extremely unsettling to know that your QB is always one play away from getting wiped out because of terrible blocking on the edges. Arizona fans know what I’m talking about. Kevin Kolb is currently not speaking to Bobby Massie or D’Anthony Baptiste. The Vikes definitely didn’t make the polarizing pick that would get all the fans talking. Instead, they made the smart one and more importantly, the right one for them. It was probably stupid of me-nay, definitely stupid of me- to compare a running back and an offensive lineman. However, I don’t feel like I’m wrong when I say that Kallil was the right pick for the Vikes.

Prediction Number Two: The Bucs’ first found choices didn’t fit their needs.

I was grossly wrong on at least one player. That player would be Mark Barron, the guy that Tampa traded out of the top six to get. The Tampa Bay Bucs currently rank first in the league in adjusted line yards allowed, and that’s in no small part due to Barron. In my short-sightedness, I failed to realize what I should have realized all along. Picking Morris Claiborne would not have been the right move for Tampa. Don’t get me wrong, Claiborne is an absolutely fantastic player who has the requisite skills to have a great career. However, the Bucs’ defense had too many holes in the secondary and featured too many guys that were question marks (Bowers, Clayborn, Talib, Barber, etc) for them to pick a player that would ultimately only address a single problem. Barron is versatile and can be used in a variety of different ways, thus addressing multiple holes in the Bucs’ defense. His capacity for playing the run was never in question; his claim to fame during his college career was hard-hitting run defense in the box. After a Bucs’ mauling of the Chiefs, Scott Reynolds from pewterreport.com wrote an article detailing Barron’s Pro Bowl case. He pointed out that, “Barron... has 35 tackles through five games, which ranks third on the team behind linebackers Mason Foster (43) and Lavonte David (41). That’s eight more stops than [Eric] Berry had at this point in his rookie season. Barron also has forced a fumble and recorded an interception, in addition to breaking up seven passes this season.” And to think that this is only his rookie season. The lesson, as always, is that I’m an idiot. Please never forget that. I’m going to reserve judgment on Doug Martin until I get a bigger sample size, but he definitely seems competent so far. However, it seems somewhat telling that the Bucs never once thought to hand the ball to Martin when they had first and goal on the one against the Saints this past week. They ran LaGarrette Blount into the pile three straight times and came away with -1 yards to show for it. Then, they called a Josh Freeman rollout on fourth down that inevitably failed. Personally, I think that was a bad series of calls by the Bucs’ coaching staff instead of a referendum on Martin’s toughness. However, it does show that the Bucs aren’t ready to commit to him yet. Regardless, the Bucs’ draft class has proved me 100% wrong so far.

           QUOTES OF THE YEAR SO FAR

   Since I don’t have any ideas for new things to write 1,000 words about (wow, it sucked having six teams off last week), I’m going to hijack some Football Outsiders quotes and maybe try to break them down a little bit. I am not good at finding sound-bytes, and one of the things that Football Outsiders deserves all the credit in the world for is finding memorable quotes. Wading through the boring press conferences of Aaron Rodgers and Bill Belichick-Bot 3000 to find the few good quotes out there is tough work, and I’m now going to steal some of those verbal gold nuggets that they found and try to make heads or tails of them. Ready? Go! Some of these quotes are from college football. All quotes are from Football Outsiders’ “The Week in Quotes” section and are re-stated in italics exactly how they are presented there.

QUOTE 1: "Do you know what I hate? I hate Twitter. I think these guys are young guys, and I think 'Tweet this, Spacebook that.' Whatever. We've got to go play the game. We don't have any hatred for Iowa." -- Penn State head coach Bill O'Brien, on a Tweet one of his players made about hating Iowa

REACTION 1: Now there’s a quote that my grandpa will approve of! And where can I get myself a SpaceBook account? That sounds awesome.

QUOTE 2: "We don’t have any defenses designed to give up 50-yard touchdowns." -- Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, on criticism for his defense

REACTION 2: As long as you’re starting Devin McCourty and Alfonzo Dennard, pretty much every defensive alignment that you call is designed to give up a 50 yard touchdown.

QUOTE 3: "If you tell Ray you hear he's not playing any more, he'd freaking kill you." -- Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, on Ray Lewis

REACTION 3: Not great word choice by Flacco here. It’s not a figure of speech, Joe. He actually di- nah, maybe we should just move on.

QUOTE 4: "I love Coach. I said it before, I'd take a bullet for Coach. " -- Castillo, on his firing

REACTION 4: This isn’t just being late to the party; this is like arriving at the party once everybody is filing out. Juan, buddy, what do you think Coach just had you do for him?

QUOTE 5: "Why should we have to go to class when we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain't come here to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS." -- Ohio State backup quarterback Cardale Jones, on his education

REACTION 5: I don’t really know if Cardale Jones was lighting up the 2015 NFL Draft Boards, but it’s safe to say that may not be the case anymore.

QUOTE 6 (Not listed in The Week in Quotes yet, but absolutely will be when the Week 7 version is released): “I eat burritos bigger than you”-- Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt trash talking Ray Rice

REACTION 6: If my earlier piece on Watt plus this quote isn’t enough to convince you to get on the bandwagon, nothing will ever convince you. J.J. Watt is awesome. There’s really nothing more to say.

QUOTE 7: "I'm just wondering why they didn't go back and take Michael Strahan’s sack away from him when they broke the record." -- Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, on the Elias Sports Bureau taking a sack away from J.J. Watt

REACTION 7: They took a sack away from J.J. Watt? How dare they!? That’s it, I’m protesting Elias Sports Bureau.

QUOTE 8: "We have fans all over the US and I think it is time that they RISE UP and snatch back what satan, himself, has stolen." -- Wife of Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, Jonna, discussing the team on Facebook

REACTION 8: I have no clue what I’m rising up for, what’s been stolen by Satan, or why Auburn fans should care about it. If she’s talking about the national championship, then the trophy is gonna stay in Satan’s hands for a little while Auburn waits for another Cam Newton. But yeah, I’m totally willing to RISE UP. Not sure what I’m RISING UP for, but I’ll do it. Anytime you need me.

QUOTE 9: "Floyd, what do you think about this? What has it been like in Minnesota this year? I can't hear you. Do you have a preference on what sideline you'd rather be on?" -- ESPN sideline reporter Lewis Johnson, interviewing a statue of a pig

REACTION 9: And really, that’s reason number 730,478 why sports are so awesome. Let’s not dwell on the fact that the winner of each year’s Iowa-Minnesota game is rewarded with an ugly pig statue. A football game actually prompted ESPN to say, “Hey, Lewis, why don’t you go down there to the sideline and interview the pig trophy? No, there’s no such thing as an awful announcing blog; why do you ask?” Nowhere else in the world would this happen but sports. Could we maybe replace the Nobel Peace Prize trophies with hideously unattractive pig statues? And last but not least

QUOTE OF THE YEAR (at least so far....): "We should have done a better job of accounting for him, and keeping an I Spy on him wherever he is. Essentially don’t throw in that area or throw extremely high. He’s six-six, and he can jump 30 inches, so he’s probably like 15 feet by the time you add it all up." -- Jets owner Woody Johnson, on how the Jets should have played Watt

REACTION 10: A quote that involves J.J. Watt, my team, and my team’s semi-incompetent owner named Woody Johnson? Count me in! Is it a bad thing that my favorite team’s owner thinks that six feet and a half plus two feet and a half equals fifteen feet? That’s a bad sign, right?

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 8

• Wow, this has turned into a long book. And I’ve still got ten more weeks and change of regular season plus the Playoffs to go before it’s over. Thank you very, very much to what will undoubtedly be the fifty or so people that stuck it out until this point. Through this book, I’ve gotten the unique opportunity to use football as an excuse to not take AP English. It’s safe to say that I got more out of writing this book than I ever would have out of essays on The Crucible (again, sorry Mr. Lapinski).
• We have our London game this week between the Pats and the Rams! First of all, it’s a bit puzzling how the NFL keeps scheduling these crappy games in London. Bears-Bucs, Pats-Bucs, Giants-Dolphins in the first London game, and so on and so forth. It’s a little bit telling that the biggest and best teams often won’t agree to give up a home game to play in London. What’s the incentive to forfeiting a home game for London if you’re a mediocre team? I don’t see the NFL catching on internationally unless this problem gets a definitive answer.
• I’ll take the Vikings over the Bucs on Thursday Night. However, the rest of the Vikes’ schedule is very interesting. After going to Seattle next week, they play four divisional opponents in a row with a bye week after the first one (home for Detroit, bye, in Chicago, in Green Bay, home for Chicago). That’s really tough. They also have a road game in Houston left on their schedule. And they have a young QB. This entire situation could not scream “letdown!” any louder. L Bucs 36, Vikings 17
• It seems like just about every single team in the AFC has sleeper potential except for my preseason sleeper pick. RIP 2012 Kansas City Chiefs- the Andrew Goldstein Approved sleeper. May the football gods bring both them and Bob Fescoe’s vocal chords peace.

·                 WEEK 8 PICKS: 10-24-12

PANTHERS AT BEARS And we’re off to a great start on the early games! The line on this one right now is Bears by 9, but it could be Bears by 20 and I’d still briefly consider betting on them. Chicago wins in a blowout. Next. W Bears 23, Panthers 22

CHARGERS AT BROWNS I think the Chargers’ sole purpose of existence right now is to mess with the head of every single analyst and gambler on the planet. Every time you think they’re about to zig, they zag, and vice versa. With the Browns becoming the hot upset pick this week, it’s almost a lock that the Chargers are gonna win this one. When an upset pick is described as a “popular pick”, then that’s one to stay away from. And once the Chargers blow out the Browns, Chiefs, and Bucs, everybody is going to get back on their bandwagon so I can pick against them. Never trust the Chargers to lose, either.                                          L Browns 7, Chargers 6

SEAHAWKS AT LIONS It’s just about desperation time for Detroit. They’re not going to sniff the playoffs in a super-deep NFC with a 2-5 record. It just won’t happen. The Seahawks had a long week to get ready for Detroit, while the Lions suffered an ugly loss to Chicago and now must turn around on a short week to face a chippy Seahawks squad. Detroit is a sloppy team, and it’s not going to get better after facing a stout Seattle defense. I’m picking Seattle to get a tough road win here and knock the Lions out of playoff contention. L Lions 28, Seahawks 24

JAGS AT PACKERS Well, it looks like everybody that’s still alive in the Eliminator Challenge on ESPN gets a freebie this week. This one could have been close, but the Jags are really gonna miss all of that production from Blaine Gabbert. Aaron Rodgers is great and all, but I bet that he wishes he could be half the QB that Gabbert is. Somehow, the Packers should struggle through to a 38-7 win. W Packers 24, Jaguars 15

COLTS AT TITANS Do you realize that by the end of this game, the Titans could be at .500 or the Colts could be over .500? I had no idea that the AFC was this terrible. The scary thing is, this game is actually an awesome matchup for the Titans. Did you see what Shonn Greene was able to do to the Colts’ front seven? Or how the Jets’ O-Line was able to consistently open up giant gaps for Greene to run through? Chris Johnson can’t run through contact at all, but he can accelerate through gaps quicker than any other running back in the league. I think that Luck will keep the Colts in this game, but the Titans are going to dominate the time of possession by keeping it on the ground with Chris Johnson. Titans win 24-20 and everybody will think that Chris Johnson is back before he gets shut down by the Bears next week. L Colts 19, Titans 13 (OT)

PATS AT RAMS London game!! The Pats are very easy upset targets, and I thought about going down that road for a little while before wisely backing away. I think this is going to be Brady’s revenge game, where he’s visibly pissed about how the last couple games have gone and he just goes off for five touchdowns. We’ve seen it before, and we’re even more likely to see it against a severely jet-lagged Rams team. I’m going with a Pats win by a margin of over two touchdowns where they score more than 35 points. If that happens, I’ll also bet on under 1.5 mentions of the Pats’ abominable secondary by NFL analysts this week. W Patriots 45, Rams 7

DOLPHINS AT JETS Is it weird that I’m kinda, maybe, sorta back in on the Jets this year?  Time Out: Yes. Yes, that is weird. They haven’t looked incompetent at any point in their last three games, and they might have taken down the Texans if J.J. Watt didn’t eat burritos that were bigger than Ray Rice. They’re not a quality team, but I think that they’re effective against other non-elite teams. And with the Dolphins’ porous secondary coming to town, would it be so strange to expect a half decent game from Sanchez? Plus, Ryan Tannehill is overdue to look terrible again, and aggressive 46 defenses have the tendency to make young QBs look bad. I’ll take the Jets, 23-16. L Dolphins 30, Jets 9

FALCONS AT EAGLES I’m not gonna overthink this one too much; I’m taking Atlanta to run their record to 7-0. Do first games with new defensive coordinators in mid-season ever work out well? I couldn’t find the stats for them, but I’m assuming the answer is no. The Falcons needed that bye week to recover from near losses to both Carolina and Oakland, but they should be fine against Philly. The dirty little secret of the Philly defense is that you can absolutely throw the ball at Nnamdi Asomugha. Antonio Brown, for instance, beat him a couple times on important throws. Why can’t Julio Jones do that this week? He’s got the speed to beat Nnamdi down the field, and he’s physical enough to fight off jams. I’ll take the Falcons by at least five and over 100 yards for Julio Jones with at least one touchdown. W Falcons 30, Eagles 17

REDSKINS AT STEELERS Another reason why I could never join Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal on their weekly “Guess the Lines” podcast; I would have NEVER imagined that the Steelers are favored by five points in this game. They haven’t played a complete game yet this year! Their O-Line looks terrible, I still have no clue what’s going on with Rashard Mendenhall’s health, and “plodding” would be a nice step up in terms of ways you could describe the Steelers’ D without Troy Polamalu. And the, “well, they don’t have Polamlau” excuse holds no water anymore because he always gets injured. A year or two ago, we reached the point with Polamalu where injuries were a regular occurrence instead of a random irregularity. The defense has to find ways to adapt without Polamalu, and so far they have not done that. The Redskins win this game by 10 and everybody suddenly realizes how old the Steelers’ D is. L Steelers 27, Redskins 12

RAIDERS AT CHIEFS We now have two afternoon games for this week as well, and one of them is this stinker. Ew. Just ew. I refuse to give this game the time of day. I’ll take the Raiders and move on very quickly. W Raiders 26, Chiefs 16

GIANTS AT COWBOYS While I’m giving out dirty little secrets about defenses, let me remind you about this for the Giants. Their corners suck. The Giants rank 26th in the league in DVOA vs #1 wide receivers, and 25th in DVOA against receivers that are not listed as X (first), Z (second), or Y (tight end) in the playbooks. Say what you will about the Cowboys, but they do have a deep receiving corps. I’m still waiting for another big game from Kevin Ogletree and another Eli Manning stinker. I feel like both are overdue, and both are going to happen in a huge divisional game. Then again, Eli with the ball in a tie game with three minutes left (which is probably what this will come down to), terrifies me. Against my better instinct, I’m going against the Giants for the second week in a row. I’ll take the Cowboys by a field goal. L Giants 29, Cowboys 24

SAINTS AT BRONCOS Drew Brees and the explosive Saints’ offense, meet the Broncos. The Broncos have a very good quarterback, but a terrible defense. In fact, the Broncos have trailed by 20 points in the majority of their games. Also, their quarterback has a surgically reconstructed neck, so you can quite literally kill his head if you wanted to. Whoops, I can’t say that in the book unless I want Roger Goodell to suspend me for eight paragraphs. The Broncos are somehow the second best AFC team right now despite having quite literally nothing else besides Peyton Manning. Seriously, try to name one other thing that Denver is good at besides making the score look closer than it was in a losing effort and getting Norv Turner fired. I’m not saying the Saints are suddenly a good team either, but Drew Brees sure is a good QB. I’ll take the Saints, 41-28. L Broncos 34, Saints 14

NINERS AT CARDINALS Yes they’re freeeeeeeee (dah dahdahdahdah dah dah dah) they’re free faaaaaallin. I’ll take the Niners on Monday Night and me to keep dropping that same Tom Petty reference until the Cards win a game. If you haven’t already gotten tired of me, wait till we get to Week 13 and I’m still quoting “Free Fallin.”                                             W Niners 24, Cardinals 3               

     WEEK 9

                       THE SAME OLD JETS

   Remember how I said that I was kinda, sorta, maybe back in on the Jets? Yeah, I’m now running away from that statement. Funny how I can do a complete 180 on my favorite team, but I am.

   Maybe it’s an overreaction. After all, the Jets didn’t play especially badly against the Dolphins. They averaged five yards per carry. They ran twenty more total plays than the Dolphins did. The Jets either led or were not far behind in every statistical category except for the most important one. The scoreboard. At the end of the game, it read, “Dolphins 30, Jets 9.”

   Every single thing that had been a problem for the Jets throughout this season and the end of 2011 found ways to manifest themselves in this one. Was there shaky special teams? You bet! How about a blocked punt to put the Jets down 10-0 and set the tone for the rest of the game? Oh, and a missed field goal before the half that could have made the score 20-3 and given the Jets some momentum. Don’t forget about that one. Plus they were caught off guard by an onside kick. How about bad pass blocking? Well, the Jets aim to please! Four sacks for a total of twenty-five yards lost was enough to set the already anemic Jet offense back even further. The Jets’ O-Line especially had trouble with recognizing corner blitzes and various stunts, repeatedly letting cornerback Jimmy Wilson get into the backfield. On the play that really swung the game in the Dolphins’ favor, Wilson came unblocked from Sanchez’s blind side around left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, who never recognized his assignment. Wilson then punched the ball out of Sanchez’s hands and into the hands of defensive tackle Koa Misi to set the Dolphins up inside the Jet 35. Shaky play-calling? Yeah, we had some of that too. There is no circumstance whatsoever where Sanchez should be throwing a football 54 times in a game. It could be a playoff game, regular season game, Sanchez family touch football game, whatever. There’s just no reason why it should ever happen. And that’s especially true when the running game is picking up five yards per carry. Why even put the ball in Mark Sanchez’s hands that much? Oh, and last but not least, there’s Sanchez himself. You know, he of the 12.1 QBR. According to ESPN Stats and Information, 14 of Sanchez’s 54 passes were either overthrown or underthrown. Coming into this game, Sanchez had either over or underthrown 23.4% of his passes, which is by far the most in the league. Wow, I didn’t think I could feel worse about Sanchez than I did six hours ago when I watched him. I’m actually beginning to wonder if Sanchez has a depth perception problem. Go back and watch his interception to Alfonzo Dennard against the Pats. He had Steven Hill wide open on a go route in the end zone about twenty yards downfield, and then he threw one of the most horrific passes I’ve ever seen in my life. It seemed to hang in the air forever before Dennard intercepted it five yards short of where Hill was. A Hail Mary crossed with a five year old kid releasing a balloon into the sky was the best way to describe it . And yet Tony Sparano decided, “Hey, let’s have him throw the ball 54 times today and completely ignore our running game.” Savvy move, Tony.  I can’t believe I picked the Jets.

Of course, the Jets did plenty of talking in the week leading up to the game. Antonio Cromartie called Reggie Bush a “punk.” Chaz Schilens called them “cheap.” And Rex Ryan said before their first matchup with the Dolphins that the Jets wanted to, “put some hot sauce on Reggie Bush”, which sounds more along the lines of cannibalism than trash talk. My point is; enough with this crap. The Ryan era came with the promise of eliminating the so-called “same old Jets.” For the 2009 and 2010 seasons, we were the new and improved Jets that backed up our talk and played with a brash swagger that nobody else in the league had. And then, it changed. These are precisely the same old Jets. They’re pretenders that can’t beat good teams or play their best when they need to. I’m another disappointing year away from saying that it’s time to clean house. The Jets are not run by Rex Ryan, Tony Sparano, Mike Tannenbaum, or Woody Johnson right now. They are instead run by delusion. Delusion that Mark Sanchez and/or Tim Tebow is the long term answer at quarterback. Delusion that the Ground and Pound Jets are alive and well despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. And delusion that they can contend for the next five to seven years with their current roster. I can see the writing on the wall for the rest of the Jets’ season pretty clearly. A punchless loss to Seattle after the bye. Another disappointing home loss to New England. A bunch of meaningless blowout wins against patsies like Jacksonville and Tennessee to get people’s hopes up. And then a final letdown against Buffalo on the last day to drop those hopes off the Empire State Building. This is just how the Same Old Jets operate. With the corners and the O-Line as the only above average parts of the team, it’s time for management to shift into rebuilding mode. Remember when I described what the worst place in sports was? When you’re not a contender, but you’re good enough to not bottom out? Well, that’s where the Jets are, only pile on a few expensive contracts and an incompetent front office on top of that. Unless Mike Tannenbaum makes some savvy moves (really unlikely) or Jets fans conspire to frame Mark Sanchez for a crime, then that perpetual state of mediocrity will be ensured for another few years. Just another day in the life of the Same Old Jets.

          

    THE NFC

So what about the NFC Playoff picture? We already went over the AFC; it’s essentially a logjam that’s going to take a couple weeks to clear. But the NFC, the clearly superior conference, seems to also have no shortage of teams that could potentially sneak into the playoffs. Let’s run down the divisions.

East- The Giants are already running away with this division. But don’t let that fool you, the Giants are not as good as their 6-2 record would indicate. Again, I hate playing the “what if” game because that can be said about literally every single play in every single game. However, it’s not exactly a big leap to suggest that the G-Men should be 4-4 right now. If Dez Bryant’s hand were a half inch closer to his body when he landed in the endzone this past Sunday, they would have lost to the Cowboys. And if Madieu Williams isn’t an absentee landlord in his coverage against Victor Cruz, that’s potentially another loss against a divisional opponent. Time Out: If you got the hidden Pacino reference there, then give me a high five. Unless you’re in a public place and high fiving a book would make you look weird. Then just wait until you get home. That would make them 1-3 in the division and in just about the worst spot out of anybody in the East. Both Antrel Rolle and Chase Blackburn have gotten hurt, and their capacity to cover tight ends and possession receivers was bad enough before that.The Cowboys were able to stay in the game down the stretch because Romo kept throwing eight yard out routes and underneath curls to Witten, who finished the day with eighteen catches for 167 yards. So even though the Giants have the division locked up, they’re not necessarily as good as you might think. Time Out: A-ha! Finally nailed a big prediction!

North- This one seems like a two team race between the Bears and the Packers. It seems a little bit too close to call right now. I was sold on the Packers before the season started, but then they started playing very inconsistently. I wrote a couple weeks back that teams had started to figure them out. It was the Bears’ division to lose. And so far, they haven’t lost it. However, their team is looking a little bit like the 2011 Lions in the respect that they’ve had more defensive touchdowns than is realistic to ever expect to have again. With a defense that good, turnovers are always going to be an advantage. However, turnovers returned for touchdowns are just about the most random thing in football. The Bears have also had the good fortune of playing some pretty bad teams. They’ve gotten the Panthers (23rd in DVOA), the Colts (28th), the Jaguars (30th), and the Cowboys on one of Tony Romo’s terrible games. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of offense. And they almost lost to Carolina, to boot. Meanwhile, the Packers seem like they are finding their groove in the midst of a three game winning streak. Ever since I wrote my, “What’s wrong with the Packers?” section, they’ve outscored opponents 96-59 over their last three games. If you give them the win in the Seattle Screw game (and I do because I felt like I needed to have a “IT’S MY BOOK AND I CAN DO WHAT I WANT!” moment. Feels great.), that would only put them a half game behind the Bears for the division lead. On the other hand, the Packers’ defense is pretty banged up, especially at the inside linebacker position. I expected this to be Desmond Bishop’s breakout year, but he’s out with a season ending injury. Backup linebacker D.J. Smith had been filling in for Bishop extremely well, but now he’s out. And on top of all of that, it was in question for most of the game whether they would beat the Jaguars. The only thing that I can be sure about is that this is a two team race, since the Lions are three games back and the Vikings are pretty much done after their no-show against Tampa. I’m still sticking with my preseason pick and going with the Packers.

South- The Falcons have this division locked up. They’re three games up on their closest competitor, the Bucs, and will probably win the division by the beginning of December.

West- Same goes for the Niners, who have a two game lead over both the Seahawks and the Cardinals. They’ve also beaten both of those teams and hold a perfect divisional record so far. This one is already locked up as well.

Wild Card- Just like the AFC playoff picture, this one is going to be interesting. If the playoffs started today, the Vikings and the Packers would get the Wild Card spots. However, no less than TEN teams (Packers, Vikings, Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs, and Lions) are within two games of those Wild Card spots as of today. And that’s assuming none of the division leaders collapse and lose their lead. Right away, I think I see some teams that I can eliminate. The Eagles, for instance, are pretty safe bets to miss the playoffs because of reasons that I’ve already spent thousands of words on. The Redskins are another team that has no identifiable strengths except for RG3 and Alfred Morris. Their defense has looked terrible for two straight weeks, and it’s pretty safe to assume that they’re not going to get better as the season moves along. Time Out: OK, so I’m 1-2 for the last two pages. Ultimately, I’d give the two remaining Wild Card spots to the Seahawks and the Bears (because I think that the Packers are going to win the division). Look at that list up there and try to pick out two other teams that have strong identities. Teams that don’t know what they do best, such as the Rams or the Cowboys, aren’t going to last very long when push comes to shove. Trust a Jets fan on that one. Maybe you can make the case that the Lions have as much as talent as the Seahawks and Bears, but they’re going to need a heck of a second half surge to pull themselves out of a 3-4 start. Out of the 19 wins that Matt Stafford has had in his career, eight of them came with the Lions trailing at the beginning of the fourth quarter. All three of the Lions’ wins this year have also come under those circumstances. I don’t put much faith in teams that consistently require a fourth quarter comeback to win a whole lot of games. The Seahawks and Bears both have great defenses that can consistently measure up to any team in the league. Both teams can dominate the lines of scrimmage on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball like nobody else on that list can. The only thing that the Bears and Seahawks can’t do is play from behind. The less that the ball is in the hands of Russell Wilson/Jay Cutler, the better. Both the Seahawks and the Bears have figured out ways to win without explosive passing games, and that’s what will make the difference in the inclement weather that December will often bring. That’s why they’re my picks to take the two remaining spots in the NFC.

• Demaryius Thomas has taken the sage advice of Bill Simmons’ readers and dressed up as a replacement ref for Halloween. Is that the greatest Halloween costume idea of all time? Possibly, right? It was funny and all, but I feel like it was a little bit of a dumb move when he knows that Police Chief Goodell is watching and probably planning his arrest.
• This past Sunday’s Giants-Cowboys game was just another classic moment in the Cowboys’ never ending quest to find new and inventive ways to sucker punch their fans. They allow twenty-three unanswered points to the Giants in the first half, compliments of three horrible turnovers. Then, the Cowboys go on a tear and score twenty-four unanswered points to make the score 24-23, Dallas. Then, the Giants end up tacking on two more field goals to put them up 29-24 with about four minutes left to play. One of those field goals came as a result of an indefensible fumble by Felix Jones where he ran into his own offensive lineman. Time Out: This was the spiritual grandfather of the Mark Sanchez butt fumble that was to occur one month later. The Cowboys end up driving down the field, because of the Giants’ inability to cover Jason Witten’s out route. The Boys end up facing second and one at the Giants’ 19, and then somehow they fail to pick up that one yard on second or third downs. On fourth down, the offensive line completely fails to block anybody, letting Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph have a straight shot at Tony Romo, who throws a desperation pass that gets intercepted. The Cowboys get the ball back at their own thirty with forty-four seconds left and start driving down the field again. The ball is at the Giants’ 37 with mere ticks left in the game when Romo flings a pass to the end zone that’s CAUGHT BY DEZ BRYANT!!!!!! TOUCHDOWN COWBOYS!!!!! THE COWBOYS HAVE PULLED OFF A MIRAC- nope. When Dez Bryant cushioned his fall after a terrific leaping catch in the back of the end zone, one finger on the hand that hit the ground first was out of bounds. Rich Eisen observed that if he had put his fist down instead of his hand, the Cowboys would have won. Romo’s remaining attempts would fall incomplete and the Giants escape with a 29-24 win. In light of everything that’s happened, the Cowboys’ logo needs to be changed to one of those Internet troll masks wrapped around the blue star. It’s time.
• I’ll take the Chargers over the Chiefs in this one. But in a way, a blowout win would be pretty bad for the Chargers because the front office staff couldn’t justify firing Norv Turner immediately after that. They had a golden chance to do it after the Chargers lost to the Browns this week and they blew it. As a quick aside, did you know that Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith’s nickname among his critics is the Lord of No Rings? Can I continue to make you feel worse about the Chargers, or should I just stop now? W Chargers 31, Chiefs 13
• That was one heck of a statement game from the Patriots. Every once in awhile, usually after one or two tough losses, the Brady-era Pats have a statement game. I call them statement games because it’s as though they’re telling the rest of the league, “Screw you; we’re the Patriots and you’re not.” Now, the Patriots are supposed to win, and they often do. But these kinds of games go beyond winning; instead they’re utter dominations. That’s why the Pats are still one of the best teams in the league; because of their collective ability to tell an inferior opponent, “You know what? You’re losing 45-7 today. There’s nothing you can do about it.” If the Brady era Pats are ever coming off of a tough loss or two, you could pencil them in for a blowout win in the next game.

               WEEK 9 PICKS: 11-1-12

BRONCOS AT BENGALS Hey, it’s the Gus Johnson Bowl! Remember Brandon Stokley’s Immaculate Deflection catch back in 2009? Good times. However, it’s decidedly not good times for the Cincinnati Bengals. They rank 28th in defensive DVOA and 26th in overall DVOA. Opponents have been able to put up thirty points or more in four of the Bengals’ seven games, and facing Peyton Manning does nothing to help the problem. I’ll take the Broncos on the road. W Broncos 31, Bengals 23

RAVENS AT BROWNS This is another game where I thought about an upset before deciding against it. The Ravens looked terrible without Webb and Lewis on defense, and divisional games are always going to be close. But the Ravens had two weeks to settle their “who’s our new play caller on defense?” issue, and I doubt that they’ll play as badly as they did against a vastly better Texans team. To pick the Browns in this game would also mean going with Brandon Weeden over a quality team, and that’s a forty foot freefall off of a cliff (I thought “Leap of Faith” would be too generous) that I’m unwilling to take. I’ll go with the Ravens by a field goal. W Ravens 25, Browns 15

CARDINALS AT PACKERS Gonna freeeeee faaaaaaall, out into nothing. Gonna leaaaaave thiiiiiis, world for a while. AND I’M FREEEEEEE.... Isn’t this a fun gimmick? I’ll take the Packers in this one because there’s no way a defense that only forced one incompletion out of Alex Smith is going to do anything against Aaron Rodgers. Packers win in a blowout to extend their winning streak to four, while the Cardinals’ losing streak hits five. W Packers 31, Cardinals 17

BEARS AT TITANS OK, so maybe the Bears weren’t as good as I thought they were. Again, the six defensive touchdowns in four games (completely unsustainable) probably go a long way towards inflating the Bears’ stock. But even so, there is absolutely no reason why the Bears should lose to the Titans. Nobody stops the run better than the Bears (77.9 yards per game allowed, best in the league), and there are few running backs that are streakier than Chris Johnson. It won’t be difficult for the Bears to make the Titans one dimensional, and that one dimension (One Dimension: not a bad name for a One Direction cover band, but I digress) is Matt Hasselbeck. I rest my case. Bears win by ten points. W Bears 51, Titans 20

PANTHERS AT REDSKINS The Panthers are just a team in complete disarray right now after the firing of GM Marty Hurney. With all of the bad contracts left over from the Hurney era (Charles Johnson for twelve million per year, for instance), the Panthers are just about trapped cap-wise for a year or two. Meanwhile, it’s fair to say that Cam Newton is taking steps backward in his maturation as a rookie QB because Ron Rivera is increasingly yanking the offense away from Newton and giving it to the Williams-Stewart backfield. Ever since Carolina was beaten down by the Giants, there’s been a dramatic reduction in the number of read option plays run and increase in traditional power running schemes. The change has not been a welcome one for the Panthers, who have seen their offensive production slide even more since the shift. Because of Carolina’s self-inflicted hampering of their offense, I’ll take the Redskins to get back on track with a 28-13 win. L Panthers 21, Redskins 13

LIONS AT JAGUARS The Lions win. *yawn* Next. W Lions 31, Jaguars 14

DOLPHINS AT COLTS If the Colts had only switched to a prevent defense against the Jaguars in Week 2, there’s a possibility that they could be gunning for a 6-2 record right now. That’s mildly unbelievable. But one thing that the Colts haven’t done well this year is stop the run and prevent running backs from getting to the second level. They currently rank 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, and the Dolphins’  excellent offensive line won’t help that problem. I’ll take the Dolphins: 24-13. L Colts 23, Dolphins 20

BILLS AT TEXANS Only thing of note in this game is Mario Williams’ return home to Houston. After a beating by the Texans, he’ll be begging to stay. I’ll go with the Texans by at least twenty. W Texans 21, Bills 9

BUCS AT RAIDERS Upset pick! I’m jumping on Oakland’s bandwagon for this one because of the East/West time zone shift. Besides, there’s absolutely no way a team as inconsistent as the Bucs can string together two great games in a row. Oakland wins 27-23 and gets back to .500. L Bucs 42, Raiders 32

VIKINGS AT SEAHAWKS I think the Vikes might have a little bit of the 2012 Cardinals’ DNA in them. I really don’t like their chances of facing the Seahawks on the road with a young QB and coming out with a win. And after seeing what Doug Martin did to the Vikes last week (or more accurately, what the Vikes let Doug Martin do to them. A lot of defenders were out of position all day, especially on that screen pass Martin scored on), it’s hard for me to imagine they’ll turn it around when they face Marshawn Lynch. I’ll take the Seahawks to win and get over .500. W Seahawks 30, Vikings 20

STEELERS AT GIANTS I feel like the Giants are going to win this one for two reasons that go beyond the game. First of all, the Steelers are traveling the same day as the game because of Hurricane Sandy. How can that possibly work out well? Secondly, remember what I said about teams raising their level of play when tragedies happen? I feel like that’s what will happen with the Giants this weekend. It’s no different from when the Jets played the Sunday Night game against Dallas on the tenth anniversary of 9/11 or when the Giants blanked the Redskins after owner Wellington Mara’s death. I’ll take the Giants to win for those two reasons. And of course, my thoughts and prayers go out to all of the people who suffered losses of either life or property during Hurricane Sandy. The Jersey Shore (the real one, not the one that MTV would have you believe) has always had fond memories for me, and I look forward to the day when everything is back to normal down there. L Steelers 24, Giants 20

COWBOYS AT FALCONS UPSET!! That’s right, the Atlanta Falcons are going to be knocked off by the Dallas Cowboys. I feel like the Cowboys started to gain a lot of momentum against the Giants in the second half. And despite what the point totals show, Rob Ryan’s defense did a fantastic job of stopping the G-Men. Manning’s long completion to Reuben Randle was the only real offense the Giants could generate all day. The rest of the points were mostly the result of good field position after turnovers, such as the touchdown scored after Dez Bryant’s muffed punt. I’m really a big fan of the Cowboys’ corners, Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. They’re one of the few CB duos in the league that can match Roddy White and Julio Jones play for play. Meanwhile, those near losses to the Panthers and Raiders give me the impression that the Falcons might not be as good as their record indicates. And with pseudo-elite teams, there’s usually at least one big letdown game. Look at the 2008 Titans, for instance. They were undefeated despite a few close calls against bad teams, and they ended up being fleeced by the Jets on their own turf in Week 12. They’re a different team than the 2012 Falcons, but I believe that the situations are similar. I’ll take the Boys in a 33-25 upset win. L Falcons 19, Cowboys 13

EAGLES AT SAINTS It’s the Misery Bowl, coming to you live on ESPN!! For the first time this season, the Saints offense looked pretty miserable against a pedestrian Broncos’ secondary. But even if the Saints’ offense were firing on all cylinders, it would need to be downright historic to keep pace with the abominable defense. They’ve given up at least 400 yards of total offense in seven straight games, a dubious distinction that only they can claim. And for a desperate Eagles team that’s one loss away from the end of the Reid/Vick era, this is undoubtedly a team that they want to play right now. I’ll take the Eagles, 37-24. L Saints 28, Eagles 13

WEEK 10

MORE MIDSEASON AWARDS

   MVP- I probably got too cute with my RG3 for MVP pick. I’m going to correct that and instead go with Matt Ryan. Picking the quarterback of the league’s only undefeated team is daring, I know. But it seems like the only smart pick right now. He has completed over 60% of his passes in every game so far and ranks in the top five in nearly every major statistical category (completion percentage, touchdowns, and QBR, to name a few). Besides, the MVP award often boils down to the best player on the best team. I usually go against that trend and instead choose the player that has made the biggest impact on his team’s performance (hence the RG3 pick), but there are no other fantastic candidates for MVP that I can see right now. The runner-up for the MVP trophy is probably Peyton Manning because he’s a big name that has made a huge impact on a team above .500. Manning probably won’t win the MVP award because of the dumb “he’s already won it four times, somebody else needs to win it” unwritten rule. But if Denver can reel off six or seven wins in a row over the second half of the year, which isn’t out of the question, Manning’s MVP stock is gonna go through the roof. I tried to talk myself into picking J.J. Watt, but I couldn’t do it. We would need to see a transcendent season from a once in a lifetime defensive player for that discussion to take place. And while I do believe Watt can get there, he’s not quite there yet.

Defensive MVP- J.J. Watt, meet the NFL defensive MVP trophy. You two will be getting very well acquainted over the next ten years or so. A whole lot of offenses have started to take notice of Watt’s play and say, “I think we might want to double team or chip block that guy. Might be a good idea.” As a result, Watt is no longer on pace for a record breaking number of sacks. However, he has 10.5 of them through eight games, which is good enough for the league lead in that category. He is now on pace for 21 sacks, which would make him the youngest player to ever break the 20 single season sacks barrier. What makes this all doubly impressive is that Watt accomplishes all of this while being a defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. In a 3-4, the outside linebackers are typically the big pass rushers. A 3-4 defensive end’s typical job is to occupy blockers and stunt to the outside linebacker position if need be. The fact that Watt is able to lead the league in sacks from this role is nothing short of incredible. Wade Phillips does tend to play more of an aggressive 5-2 defense instead of a base 3-4 formation, but that makes it no less impressive. I had to search the Internet for about ten minutes before I was able to find the 3-4 defensive end that had the second most sacks at this point in the season. It’s Watt’s teammate, Antonio Smith, with four of them. Notice the disparity. And I’d be willing to bet that some of those opportunities were created because offensive lines had to slide protection over to Watt’s side of the field. Of course, J.J. Watt’s pass swatting skills make it almost like having another linebacker on the field. He has defended ten passes this year, at least four more than any other defensive end and good enough for eighth on the league list in passes defended. And this is for a player that is never actually assigned to cover a wide receiver. I couldn’t find stats for how many of those tipped passes have turned into interceptions, but I can remember at least two of them did.  If I can’t effectively convince you that J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in football, then I really need to stop writing this book and study for my Italian quiz. Crap, I should probably do that anyways.

Best Game- Week Five, Packers-Colts has got to be the best game this year for these five reasons.

Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia earlier that week, and that added a lot of emotional weight to the game for the Colts. If I hear even one player on a team say, “We have to win this one for (insert person here)”, I know that some crazy stuff is bound to happen in that game. You never have a “we have to win this one for (insert person here)” game end up 6-3 with twenty combined penalties. It just doesn’t happen.

If the Colts end up making the playoffs (which would be beyond impressive considering their pre-season projections), then this is the game that started it all. The whole Chuck Pagano story was simultaneously sad and inspiring to so many people, including the entire Colts team. After the second half of that game started, you could just feel something fundamentally change about that team. It’s not often that you get to observe a season being transformed in minutes like that.

In a lot of comebacks like this, the team that was up initially usually caves to some degree. But that didn’t happen here. The Pack definitely played well. The only thing that ended up killing them was penalties (9 of them for 89 yards), but the Colts also had them (9 for 100 yards). Green Bay scored touchdowns on all three of their red zone trips, only committed one turnover, and was able to run the ball effectively (6.2 yards per carry). The Colts just played a fantastic game, and that’s why they won.

It marked the real beginning of the Andrew Luck era. It technically began at the start of the season, but he was pretty quiet for the first few weeks. That’s not to say he was bad, of course, but rookie QBs always have a 4-5 week grace period where they run a simplified offense and are heavily managed by the offensive coordinator. If it’s not part of the coaches’ plan, it certainly feels and looks like it. This is the game where Luck shed his training wheels. The Colts were down 21-3 when Bruce Arians probably decided, “We don’t have much of a shot of coming back, so why not let Luck take some risks?” Luck then led them all the way back, and Arians did the smart thing by letting Luck keep taking shots, as opposed to the annoying “Down by three, on the opponent’s 12 yard line, third and seven, run the draw play” mentality. (Pat Shurmur™)            

It was a comeback. Who doesn’t love comebacks? At that point in the season, the Colts were thought to be one of the worst teams in the league. In the first half, the Packers seemed to be getting their mojo back. Everybody was thinking, “OK, this game is completely over. The Pack are back.” (switching to Lee Corso voice)... NOT so FAST my FRIEND!!!! The Colts came all the way back, won 30-27, and capped off the year’s greatest game...... so far.

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 10

• So where does Doug Martin’s 251 yard, four touchdown performance put him in the rankings for best running back in the league? Probably not in the top five just yet: those spots belong to McCoy, Foster, Rice, Peterson, and Jones-Drew. But I think it’s perfectly reasonable to put him in the top 10. After all, he’s already there in yards, yards per carry, touchdowns, and yards per game. I’m not putting him past Marshawn Lynch and Stevan Ridley just yet, but I’ll put him just ahead of Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles. Halfway through Doug Martin’s rookie season, it’s not unreasonable to put him in the top 10. Wow, I can’t believe I just said that. Quite a change from “larger sample size needed”, no? By the way, don’t take that as an expert opinion. Martinmania has left its mark on me. Only took one game.
• Even though it didn’t get as much attention as the hit that gave him a concussion, RG3 made another reckless choice this Sunday. The Skins were down to the Panthers 21-6 when RG3 converted a fourth and four by allowing himself to get sandwiched in between two defenders, who sent him spinning in the air (a la John Elway) and over the marker. It didn’t injure him, but it very well could have. Washington not only had just about no chance of winning, but RG could have also picked up the first down by diving for it instead of taking on two linebackers. He’s gotta be less reckless.
• I’m not saying that Beyonce for the Super Bowl Halftime Show is a downgrade from The Who or Bruce Springsteen but...... scratch that, it is kind of a downgrade from The Who or Bruce Springsteen. If this book is even moderately successful, I’m using all of my powers to get Bruce back for the 2014 show in the Meadowlands. You know it needs to happen.
• Wow, the Colts have been playing well lately. Like, unusually well. Plus, they’re 5-1 in close games this year. Hmmmm..... It looks like everybody’s jumping on the Colts’ bandwagon even though they seem to be outplaying their collective talent (no semblance of control up front whatsoever). And we all know that road teams have a tendency to look terrible on Thursday Nights because of the whole short week+travel thing. This smells like a trap game to me. For once, I’m not falling for it. I’ll take Jacksonville over Indy, 23-13.     L Colts 27, Jaguars 10

·               WEEK 10 PICKS: 10/6/12

GIANTS AT BENGALS I had been saying that the Giants were due for a letdown game for weeks now, so of course it happens on the one game in that stretch where I pick them. But one team that I am pretty down on this year is the Cincinnati Bengals. They’re an average team that masqueraded as an above average team in 2011 due to an easy schedule. That’s a luxury they don’t have in 2012, and their performance has reflected it. Besides, the Giants usually don’t play two crappy games in a row. I like New York in this one, 35-24.       L Bengals 31, Giants 13

TITANS AT DOLPHINS Despite last week’s loss, I’m still in on the Dolphins. They do have an outstandingly bad pass defense, but that shouldn’t be a huge problem against the Titans. In fact, I probably didn’t even need to see the Titans’ opponent. As soon as I see “Titans at”, I’m going against them. Wow, they’ve looked helpless this year. Out of their six losses, five of them have come by twenty points or more. How is this team 3-6 again? I wish I knew. But I do know that the Dolphins are going to roll over the Titans by at least two touchdowns. L Titans 37, Dolphins 3

LIONS AT VIKINGS I feel like the Lions are starting to climb back from the brink. Key wins over Philly and Seattle have Detriot back in the playoff hunt. One of the losses that put the Lions on the brink was to none other than the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions lost that game by one touchdown and the Vikings got two special teams touchdowns. That’s not likely to happen again. This will probably be a close game until the end, but the Lions should put it away with a final touchdown drive and win 34-24. L Vikings 34, Lions 24

BILLS AT PATRIOTS The Pats have not lost a home game that immediately follows their bye week since 2002. Against the porous Buffalo Bills’ defense, that streak is in no danger of ending. Pats win by a score of 41-17. W Patriots 37, Bills 31

CHARGERS AT BUCS I want to avoid hopping on the Bucs’ bandwagon simply because they’ve looked a little bit too good the past few weeks. Whenever you see a huge spike in a team’s performance compared to everything they had done previous to that, it should be treated with suspicion. However, picking against the Bucs would mean pinning my hopes on a “should have been fired” Norv Turner. You know what? I’m gonna do it. The Chargers have the fourth ranked run defense in the league, and the Bucs are on the second leg of their West Coast road trip. Plus, Tampa’s O-Line is clearly exceeding expectations without Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. I’m thinking it’s relapse time for the Bucs. L Bucs 34, Chargers 24

FALCONS AT SAINTS Remember when I thought I had a good handle on the New Orleans Saints? Good times. However, I can’t feel good about picking the Saints here. That atrocious performance on all fronts in Denver is still fresh in my mind. Sure, they looked good against the Eagles. But don’t forget about Patrick Robinson’s 99 yard interception return. It eliminated the possibility of the Eagles getting a touchdown on that drive (which they were about to do) and instead put one on the board for the Saints. So if that never happened (let’s just say the tipped pass went away from Robinson instead of right at him), then the score is 21-16 or even 21-20. That’s not so impressive anymore, right? Especially when they were at home and against an Eagles team that is coming apart at the seams. Atlanta should stay undefeated for another week. L Saints 31, Falcons 27

RAIDERS AT RAVENS The player that Doug Martin gets compared to most often is Ray Rice. Doug Martin ran for almost 250 yards against the Raiders last week. Ray Rice plays professional football for the Baltimore Ravens. Yep, I think I’m going with Baltimore here. W Ravens 55, Raiders 20

JETS AT SEAHAWKS Did you know that Russell Wilson has yet to throw an interception at home (cough, cough)? Or that the Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year? They’re just a dominant team at home, and that has a lot to do with their ability to win the battles up front. Even though the “running to set up the pass” notion is somewhat outdated in the NFL, the Seahawks need to do it to set up Russell Wilson’s play action passing. It’s something that they’ve been doing to great effect, as Marshawn Lynch has averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Fortunately for Seattle, that’s the exact way to beat the Jets. Dominate them at the line, and then blitz Sanchez until the cows come home. I’ll take Seattle by 10. W Seahawks 28, Jets 7

BRONCOS AT PANTHERS Future generations are going to look back at this game and recognize that it was the start of my best prediction ever’s journey to coming true. Time Out: Buy the book for details. I’ll take Peyton Manning throwing against Josh Norman and Haruki Nakamura all day. Anybody that plays the Panthers should adopt the same offensive strategy that teams use against the Patriots- just throw the ball thirty yards downfield at least three or four times per quarter and trust that something good will happen. The Panthers won’t be able to bully the Broncos’ front like they were able to with Washington. I’ll take the Broncos, 27-13. W Broncos 36, Panthers 14

COWBOYS AT EAGLES The Cowboys have to come through one of these weeks. Three very winnable games (Ravens, Giants, Falcons) have all ended up adding an L to the Cowboys’ schedule. This is absolutely ridiculous. I’m going to break one of my most tried and true rules, which is to never fall into the Gambler’s Fallacy Trap. I am going to assume that Dallas won’t blow another winnable game even though the probability of the Cowboys blowing another game hasn’t changed. They’re just too good of a team to be 3-6, and that description does not fit a decomposing Eagles team with a lame duck head coach. I’ll take Dallas, 23-20. W Cowboys 38, Eagles 23

RAMS AT NINERS St Louis in San Fran after a bye? This game won’t exactly be yanking my attention away from the Jets. San Fran should win in a blowout. W (I’m counting the tie) Niners 24, Rams 24

CHIEFS AT STEELERS Pittsburgh has won three straight games and it should probably be five straight games. They’re starting to gain a lot of momentum. On the other hand, Kansas City wouldn’t know momentum if it came up and punched them in the mouth. Come to think of it, that’s kind of what’s going to happen in this one. Steelers in a blowout. W Steelers 16, Chiefs 13 (OT)

TEXANS AT BEARS Ohhhhhhhh man. This is gonna be the game of the year, and the winner will probably be the NFL’s undisputed best team after the week is over. I’ve jumped on the Texans’ bandwagon all year, and I’m not getting off now. The Bears’ amazing defensive touchdown streak has obscured a very important fact about them. Their offense is terrible. It’s 25th in total DVOA at 36.5% worse than the average offense. That’s probably the worst ever recorded for a team that’s doing as well as the Bears are right now. Chicago also ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate, which is just like regular sack rate except it’s adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. Oh, and Jay Cutler gets sacked on somewhere around 10.5% of his dropbacks. Also, due to Football Outsiders’ statistics on sacks allowed and most false start penalties, I have come to the conclusion that JaMarcus Webb might be the worst tackle in football. You know who he’s facing this Sunday? J.J. Watt! Yep, the same J.J. Watt that leads the league in sacks right now. If Houston just takes care of the football (they have six turnovers committed all year, the least in the league), they should be able to deal with the Bears. Basically, as long as the Texans’ offense denies the Bears’ defense a chance to make that game-changing turnover, they’ll win. I’m taking Houston, 16-10. W Texans 13, Bears 6