Weeks 1-5

WEEK 1

                  SEATTLE’S QB BATTLE AT AN END

Pete Carroll has made a decision as to who will be his starting QB in Week 1. Russell Wilson, the third round rookie from Wisconsin, beat out heavy favorite Matt Flynn for the job after everybody assumed that it was a foregone conclusion that Flynn was the starting QB. Wilson has looked absolutely fantastic all preseason, and he’ll make the Seahawks an even more attractive sleeper pick.    

So, what do we know about Russell Wilson besides the fact that he rendered my whole section on Matt Flynn irrelevant? First of all, Football Outsider’s Lewin Career Forecast, which projects the amount of success that each incoming rookie quarterback drafted in the first few rounds will have over their careers, gave Russell Wilson the highest score in its history. I’d be way more excited if I had any idea what went into a Lewin Career Forecast score, but I assume that it’s not a bad thing to have the highest score in its history. Secondly, we already know that Pete Carroll made a very savvy move by drafting Wilson. The Seahawks had just signed Matt Flynn to be their starting QB, so logic would dictate that they shouldn’t take a QB within the first three rounds. However, Carroll went with the tried and true strategy of picking the best player available instead of reaching for a need. That pick almost makes up for the fact that they took Bruce Irvin in the first round. Almost. And lastly, we know that Wilson is going to provide a downfield passing game that was completely nonexistent with Tarvaris Jackson. He has been fantastic in the preseason, and I’d be willing to bet money that he continues that he continues that success in the regular season. Don’t let me down, Russell. I’ve got twenty bucks riding on you throwing for over 3,500 yards.

But before we fully embrace Wilsonitis (It’s like TebowMania, but for people who can throw), I’d like to extend my sympathies to Matt Flynn. He finally gets his shot in the NFL, and then gets ousted from his starting job by someone who never had to wait his turn like Flynn did. I’m definitely not saying that Wilson should have had to wait his turn; the Seahawks definitely made the right choice. However, he played very well in preseason and just happened to have the bad luck of being the guy in front of Russell Wilson. Don’t be surprised to see him starting somewhere else next year if the Seahawks can trade or dump his contract. Remember that the last Green Bay QB to wait a long time to finally get a starting job was a guy by the name of Aaron Rodgers. I’m not comparing Flynn to Rodgers, I’m just saying that even though Flynn lost this battle, he might still have a shot in the war that is an NFL career.

                                          WEEK ONE: ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS

• Since the Wednesday/Thursday night game is usually too early for the picks portion of the chapter (I usually write that on Fridays and Saturdays), I’ll be picking those games in the Odds and Ends section. So, I’m going with a 31-27 Giants’ win over the Cowboys in the opener tonight. These two teams are essentially a wash in all but a couple key areas. The first area is the pass rush, where the Giants have a huge advantage. While Dallas arguably has the single best pass rusher in this game (DeMarcus Ware), the Giants can throw any combination of Osi, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Justin Tuck into all manner of blitzes. As a matter of fact, the Giants ran their “four aces” set with four defensive ends across the line of scrimmage and two linebackers almost two thirds of the time in 2011 (Thanks, Pro Football Almanac!) They can rush four or even three guys and still get consistent pressure with the talent on that team. The same cannot be said for the Cowboys. The other area where the Giants have a huge advantage is in quarterback play in close games. There’s going to be a gut check moment for both teams in this game, and I have my money on Eli responding better to it than Tony Romo does. L Cowboys 24, Giants 17

• Adrian Peterson could possibly return to the field against the Jaguars, fulfilling his goal to play in the season opener. However, the Vikings are making the right decision by activating him, yet putting him on the bench. He’s going to be an injury risk for the rest of his career, and there’s no need to take that risk in a Week 1 home game against the Jaguars. I can never understand when players are rushed back after injuries, or more accurately, why teams let players rush themselves back from injuries. In all except the most important games (Super Bowl, Playoffs, etc), a 50% healthy player won’t make much more difference than a deactivated one; we saw that with Gronkowski in the 2011 Super Bowl. All the team is doing by letting the player come back is increasing the chance of future injury. And with three long-term injuries to his legs (one at Oklahoma in college, one in 2007, and one against Washington in 2011), Adrian Peterson is definitely not someone that should be hurried back onto the field. That’s a good call by Minnesota. Time Out: Peterson would end up starting opening day and rushing for two touchdowns and over 100 yards. I’m a numbskull.

• This one is being posted on 9/6 after watching the Cowboys-Giants game.

   Yep, that prediction was wrong. That last sentence and its variations will probably be the most common words in this book. What can I say? The Cowboys came up big. Tony Romo held on to the lead and showed a lot of toughness, while Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense never seemed to get going. One significant difference between the two teams was the running game, which the Giants were never able to establish. A David Wilson fumble early on really set the tone for the night, and the Cowboys were able to dominate the line of scrimmage on run plays. If DeMarco Murray can keep from getting in to injury trouble, that’s going to add a great, new dynamic to the Cowboys’ offense.

•    The real problem that the Giants faced all night was a depleted secondary. Terrell Thomas is out for the year. Prince Amukamara had a high ankle sprain and missed the game. Michael Coe, who was doing a very good job filling in for those guys, had to leave the game after injuring his hamstring. By game’s end, fifth cornerback Justin Tryon was playing every down. That’s right, THE Justin Tryon. Once the secondary gets depleted on the edges, the QB has no reservations about throwing the ball downfield because the receivers will most likely have a distinct physical advantage over the backup corners. And speaking of corners, the ones in Dallas uniforms looked pretty good. Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne covered Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz very well last night. Of course, Claiborne was helped out by three Cruz drops, but he was more than adequate for his first game. For a couple of years now, the Cowboys have been kept from the ranks of the NFC elite in part because of a suspect secondary. Is this the year that potentially changes?
• This game is not a reflection on the Giants. They’re 0-1 and have always zigged when everybody expects them to zag and vice versa. After a loss to Washington to open their 2011 season, I made the following prediction for the Giants-Rams game in Week 2:

The Rams are another team that's much better than the box score would show. Sadly, I'm beginning to suspect that the Giants are not. An already beaten up secondary will get picked on some more on Monday Night as the Rams beat the Giants 17-7.

The point is, never overreact to things that happen early in the season to veteran teams. There’s all the evidence in the world that suggests the Giants will come back from this loss completely unfazed. This was far more of a win for the Cowboys than a loss for the Giants. My answer to the question, “who is the one team that you don’t want to face in the playoffs?” remains the same. For now.

               NFL WEEK 1 PICKS: (9-6-12)

This also doubled as my last column for SIKIDS.com. And if you’re one of the forty or fifty people who was a regular reader of mine when I wrote for SIKIDS, thanks for reading me in my early days.

The powers that be have told me that this might be my last column before my time at SIKIDS draws to a close and the new reporters are brought in. I’ll always remember and cherish my time at SIKIDS, and I’d like to thank my readers for sticking with me throughout this process. And if you aren’t one of my readers and you’re reading this right now, just nod your head.  Anyways, I’ve decided that my exit column for the website should be the same as the column I used in the application to get in to SIKIDS. That’s right, it’s time for the Week 1 NFL Picks column. Ready? Let’s go.

BILLS VS JETS: I’m really not completely sure how to feel about this game. On the one hand, I don’t totally believe in Buffalo, especially their offense. Fred Jackson is going on 31 and just coming off of a season ending injury. Unless Stevie Johnson really does have Darelle Revis’ MO all figured out, the Bills are going to struggle to put up points. On the other hand, the Jets’ offense is awful. Calling it trash would be an insult to trash, and neither Tebow nor their Wildcat gimmicks are going to change that. On a recent episode of NFL Total Access, Rich Eisen outlined these two scenarios:

Scenario A: Bills receive the ball first and score a field goal. Sanchez goes three and out and the Bills score a touchdown. Jets are down 10-0 at the end of the first quarter. The Jets go on to lose to Buffalo.

Scenario B: Sanchez is much improved and the Jets beat Buffalo.

He then asked the five panelists which scenario the game would be closer to. Every single one of them went with A. I think I should be worried about this game, but I feel equally unconfident about both teams. When picking against the spread, take the points when in doubt. But when picking straight up (like I’m doing right now), take the home team when in doubt. And that’s what I’m gonna do. 13-7, Jets. W Jets 48, Bills 28

JAGUARS VS VIKINGS: I’m picking the Vikings in this game because I believe in Christian Ponder and Maurice Jones-Drew missed training camp. If there is a more useless way to spend three hours on a Sunday than watching this game, I’d sincerely love to hear about it. W Vikings 26, Jaguars 23 (OT)

COLTS VS BEARS: Something tells me that Andrew Luck is about to get a very rude welcome to the NFL. I don’t care how good the rookie QB is, every single team in the league would kill for a chance to play one in the first two or three weeks of the NFL season. The rookie hasn’t seen anything resembling a regular season defensive scheme, and it’s almost a given that they’ll make a mistake or two. By the way, I’m watching out for Alshon Jeffrey in this game. I think he’s gonna be the most popular waiver wire acquisition in fantasy football after he feasts on the Colts’ excuse for a secondary this week. Bears win 34-17. W Bears 41, Colts 21

EAGLES VS BROWNS I would have chosen this game as my ESPN Eliminator Challenge pick, but I’m absolutely terrified of picking the Eagles in anything. I’m still picking the Eagles to win, but I’m not confident about it. Couldn’t you see Michael Vick throwing a few interceptions and/or getting hurt at some point? He’s certainly been out of the offense long enough for there to be some amount of rust on his game. There’s always an upset of some magnitude in Week 1, and this one just screams of a couple dumb things happening.  Still, I can’t go against common sense. Eagles win, but not by much. W Eagles 17, Browns 16

PATRIOTS VS TITANS   A team without an identity, such as the Titans, simply doesn’t have a chance against the Pats. When they fall behind by two scores (which they absolutely will at some point, since they don’t have the corners or safeties required to cover Welker, Lloyd, and the Hernandez/Gronk duo), what are they going to rely on to come back? Jake Locker certainly isn’t going to match New England point for point, and Chris Johnson won’t be of much use when the Titans are down 28-10 in the third quarter. Pats win easy.  W Patriots 34, Titans 13

RAMS VS LIONS Assuming that a large majority of them aren’t arrested on their way to the stadium, which isn’t out of the question considering the events of this offseason, the Lions should run the Rams out of the building. The Rams are extremely weak in the secondary, which seems somewhat significant when they have to stop Matt Stafford. Lions win 38-10. W Lions 27, Rams 23

FALCONS VS CHIEFS  It’s the first game of the year in one of the loudest stadiums in football. Nobody’s giving the Chiefs a chance this year, but they’re getting two significant players (Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry) back from torn ACLs. They’ve apparently had a much better training camp under Romeo Crennel, and Dwayne Bowe is back from a holdout. Meanwhile, the Falcons are kind of an overvalued, unpredictable team without much of a defense. You know what all this says to me? UPSET PICK!!!!! Chiefs 23, Falcons 20. L Falcons 40, Chiefs 24

REDSKINS VS SAINTS  The Saints are in complete turmoil right now, and are without their play-caller on defense or their coaching staff. Plus, it just seems like with all of the bounty stuff going on, this is the year where everything goes wrong for the Saints. So you know what this means, right? Come on, you can say it out loud. Ready? UPSET PICK!!!!!! Can’t you see RG3 lighting up a depleted Saints’ defense? I certainly can. Redskins 26, Saints 21. W Redskins 40, Saints 32

DOLPHINS VS TEXANS  The Dolphins have come to a decision about their starting QB. You know how Ryan Tannehill hasn’t started 20 significant games at QB in his life? Well, the Dolphins are about to throw him to the wolves with no safety net against the Texans. Learning behind a veteran QB? Hah! That’s for losers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady! What does a guy who was a wide receiver for most of his college career have to learn from someone who’s been an NFL starter for four years? No, they’d rather just let everybody see right away that he was a terrible pick. Why wait? Texans win big. W Texans 30, Dolphins 10

NINERS VS PACKERS Welcome to the marquee game of Week 1. Games like this are why everybody should be glad that football is back. What could be better than watching the two teams who led the NFC in turnover ratio and have completely contrasting styles of play meet in Lambeau Field? Anything? Anything at all? I feel like this one is gonna go the Packers’ way. I’m still really not sold on Alex Smith beating elite teams on the road. In fact, any sentence that involves Alex Smith and words like “road” and “elite teams” is probably gonna end badly. The Pack will intercept Smith at least twice and hang on for a 20-10 win. L Niners 30, Packers 22

SEAHAWKS VS CARDINALS  Is anyone fired up to potentially see John Skelton’s first game as a full time starting QB? Any takers for John Skelton? Nope? Yeah, me neither. Seahawks win by at least a touchdown. L Cardinals 20, Seahawks 16

PANTHERS VS BUCS  I’m excited for the return of Cam Bam (Yes, I’m desperate for a gimmicky new nickname). I feel like Tampa Bay could upset Carolina. However, the defenses are equally bad and Cam Newton>Josh Freeman for now, so I’m taking Carolina by three points. L Bucs 16, Panthers 10

STEELERS VS BRONCOS  I was personally shocked to find out that the majority of people on ESPN.com’s Pigskin Pick’Em challenge went with Denver for this game. I’m not at all confident in Peyton Manning against the Steelers’ D. This is the first time Peyton will be playing a home game outdoors in his whole career, and he’ll be doing it with a new offense and against the number one defense in terms of yards per game in 2011. Conventional wisdom says to never bet against Peyton Manning at night, but there’s nothing conventional about Manning’s situation right now. Steelers win 24-20. L Broncos 31, Steelers 19

BENGALS VS RAVENS  This is a pretty interesting game. I still don’t think that the Bengals have progressed enough to challenge Baltimore, though. I feel like a lot of the NFL Previews that put the Bengals second in the division are overestimating how much progress Andy Dalton is going to make this year. He’ll make some, but not enough to beat Baltimore or Pittsburgh at any point in 2012. I feel like year three will be his big breakout season, but we’re not there yet. And I think that this game will serve as a little bit of a reality check to the Bengals that the top teams are not so easily overthrown.  The Bengals will keep it close for awhile, but I don’t think that the Ravens’ defense will allow too many points in this one. 20-16 Baltimore is my call. W Ravens 44, Bengals 13

RAIDERS VS CHARGERS  If you remember nothing else from my columns at SIKIDS, remember this. NEVER trust the Chargers, especially in primetime games. Time Out: That advice applies at all times. Always. Seriously, always. 24-19 Raiders is my pick. L Chargers 22, Raiders 14

If this is indeed my last column, thanks for reading and happy trails everybody.

And with that, Week 1 of the NFL season is set to kick off.

                                    WEEK 2

               HEY, WHY DIDN’T I THINK OF THAT?

I was talking with my friends Matt and Ray (to the extent that Ray talks in the morning) about the previous night’s Giants-Cowboys game. Naturally, I was so impressed by Tony Romo’s performance that the conversation went like this.

Andrew: How about Tony Romo? He came up big last night.

Matt: Yep. Got you some decent fantasy points too.

Ray: (grumbles)

Andrew: Cowboys are lookin’ pretty good this year, huh?

Matt: Yup

Ray: (still asleep)

Andrew: You think the Cowboys have a chance at winning the NFC East?

Ray: (suddenly wakes up) No. They suck.

Matt: You’re an idiot.

And then I heard it from them for the next fifteen minutes about how stupid it was to suggest that the Cowboys even had a shot. I couldn’t entirely debate them on it. They were the Cowboys. Tony Romo would find ways to keep them out of it. Or somebody would get injured in their secondary. Or somebody would be arrested. They are the Dallas Cowboys, after all.

So, I went to my classes. Then, I started thinking a strange, ridiculous thought. It kept coming back all throughout Italian class. And Pre-Calc. And other times throughout the day when my teachers would be disappointed if they knew I was thinking about the Dallas Cowboys. Why couldn’t the Cowboys win the division?

The Dallas Cowboys finished 8-8 in 2011. Depending on the scenario, either one or two more wins would have won the division. Think about all of the games they could have and should have won. There was the opening day game against the Jets, where the Cowboys were up by 14 points in the fourth quarter and lost after a goal line fumble, a blocked punt, and some of the worst game management I’ve ever seen. Who could forget Week 4 against Detroit, when the Cowboys lost despite holding a 27-3 lead at halftime? What about Week 5 in New England, where Tom Brady threw the go ahead touchdown to Aaron Hernandez with less than a minute left? How about the Arizona game, which was undoubtedly the worst end-of-the-game time management I’ve ever seen from a professional football team? And then there was that first game against the Giants where the Cowboys were up two scores with under six minutes left, yet couldn’t close the deal. For those of you counting at home, that’s five games that the Cowboys absolutely should have won. If somebody made the 2011 Cowboys’ campaign into a movie, it would definitely have a scene where Alec Baldwin tells Tony Romo that coffee is for closers. Time Out: Totally forced Glengarry Glen Ross reference. I highly recommend it, by the way. After you’re done with the book, of course.

What you’ve just read is a never-ending parade of screw-ups that is almost historically unprecedented. From what I just saw in the season opener, I doubt that those series of events will repeat themselves. Check out these second half stats from those five games and see whether they could ever happen again with a revamped secondary and a (possibly) different Tony Romo.

Number of non-offensive touchdowns scored: 3 (All against the Cowboys)

Passing touchdowns allowed: 7

Outscored 96-50

The Cowboys absolutely have the talent to win the division against a streaky Giants team and the Eagles, who are absolutely vulnerable when Michael Vick isn’t on his game. It seems odd of me to be putting this section right after the one where I said, “Don’t make brash predictions based on Week one”, but this is a trend that goes back to the 2011 season. All I’m saying is, the NFC just might want to watch out for the Dallas Cowboys.

AS LONG AS WE’RE ON THE TOPIC OF THINGS I MIGHT BE WRONG ABOUT...........

Alex Smith beat an elite team on the road. Holy crap, Alex Smith beat an elite team on the road. I said last week that those words should never be involved in the same sentence. Yet four days after I wrote that, they are somehow involved in the same sentence. You just can’t make this stuff up.

Again, it’s waaaaaay too early to be changing predictions about things. My general rule is that you should always stick to your guns until at least Week 4 unless either something catastrophic happens or a trend that started last year is continuing this year. In the case of the San Francisco 49ers, I bet against last year’s trend continuing. I thought that the Packers’ west coast offense and depth at the receiver position was going to spread the Niners out. I thought that at least one of the safeties, most likely Donte Whitner, would be stuck covering a wide receiver all game, thus creating opportunities in the running game for the Packers. I was right about that. What I wasn’t right about was how well it would work. I really underestimated the Niners’ depth in the secondary and up front. The Packers wholly disregarded the run, going with a no running back set for over half of their plays. Carlos Rogers played shutdown defense on Greg Jennings all game. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, none of them got open for extended periods of time. After the game, Rodgers said of the Niners’ defense, "You've got to give them credit. They've got some of the top guys in the league at their position."

This game may also highlight an interesting turning point in the offense vs defense dynamic in the NFL. Everybody agreed in the preseason that barring something unprecedented (like the Bounty scandal), the teams with the best quarterbacks would be the Super Bowl favorites. That’s just a fact of today’s NFL. But for teams without elite passing games, a new option is starting to emerge. The Niners and the Ravens have proven that building a team around a tough defense and a strong running game still works. As long as you get a QB that can manage the game, an Aldon Smith can be just as important as an Aaron Rodgers. We could very well hear a TV analyst in ten years say, “I like this team, but you can’t win in this league without an elite pass rusher, and they don’t have it”. Now, the Niners-Packers game wasn’t a revolutionary moment in the philosophy of the NFL. But it was a step. Last Winter, the elite offenses triumphed over stout defenses in both the AFC and NFC Championship games. This game proved once and for all that if the defense is good enough, then a team can beat anyone on any given Sunday. That might seem obvious, but it was getting to the point where I doubted that a team could ever contend for a Super Bowl year in and year out without a franchise QB. Now, it looks like a franchise cornerback and a few other pieces might just do the trick.

Don’t let the final score of 30-22 fool you, this game was never that close. From the moment that David Akers hit an insane 63 yard field goal to end the half, it seemed like this was just the Niners’ day. The Pack crawled back to within one score due to a Randall Cobb punt return for a touchdown that never should have happened (the replacement refs missed the most blatant illegal block in the back call I’ve ever witnessed), but that was just about the only big moment for the Pack on Sunday, September Ninth. For the first time in a long time, the Packers couldn’t seem to find that game changing moment. The Niners just wouldn’t allow it. And I forgot how much I liked seeing a team win with defense. It’s not good for a league when every team tries to get ahead using the same method, and I love the fact that the Niners have found success while completely bucking the “big play or bust” trend. I’m still sticking to my prediction until it becomes unreasonable to do so, but I didn’t give enough credit to this Niner defense. I forgot how good they were. On Sunday, they gave me a little reminder, and I don’t think I’ll forget again.

   

        WEEK 2: ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS

• My second running back in my fantasy football league right now is Isaac Redman. I have no earthly idea how I let this happen to myself, but I might be saddled with Isaac Redman for the rest of the year. Well, him or Mark Ingram. I also went 4-8 in 2011 and actually had to start Jon Kuhn one week. Did I try to trade him to another owner for nothing so he’d be forced to drop someone? Of course I did. Did it work? Uh, no. This has no relation to anything relevant to the real NFL, but I wanted people to empathize with me.
• On Monday night, the Chargers defeated the Raiders by a score of 22-14. That’s not really the important thing. The most important thing to remember about this game was the long snapping. Yes, the long snapping. Meet Travis Goethel, the unfortunate soul who happened to be on the Oakland Raiders the night they needed a replacement long snapper. The Raiders botched a punt not one time, not two times, but three times. On two of those punts, Goethel rolled the ball back to all-pro punter Shane Lechler, which was only slightly more effective than just handing the ball to San Diego’s special teams unit. I feel bad for Goethel. There’s no way he could have known that the team would need a backup long snapper, mostly because few teams in the history of football waste a roster spot on a guy whose only talent is long-snapping. Also, could an injured long snapper in the season opening game happen to anybody but Oakland? I’m gonna go with no on that one.

• This may or may not sound completely ridiculous when you read this, seeing as how you know what happened in the 2012 season and I don’t, but I think it’s time for the Eagles to bench Michael Vick. I know it doesn’t make much sense on the surface, but I think it’s almost time. Vick threw four interceptions and barely beat the pitiful Cleveland Browns, and only luck prevented a game-sealing fifth interception. Every other part of the Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl caliber. Their secondary is among the best in the league. LeSean McCoy is one of the most explosive running backs of the past decade. However, there is no way that the Eagles can go deep into the playoffs while starting Michael Vick. This is an exception to my “never overreact to Week 1” rule because this is a trend that dates back to 2011. He almost single handedly engineered two significant Eagles’ losses in Buffalo and Arizona. He actually trailed Tarvaris Jackson in completion percentage in 2011. Tarvaris Jackson! Now, I’m all for sticking with a guy when he gives the team the best chance to win out of anybody on the roster. But that’s the thing. I’m not sure Vick does anymore. Nick Foles outshined Vick in both the preseason and training camp, and if that’s reason enough for the Seahawks to start Russell WIlson over Matt Flynn, then there’s the Eagles’ reason to give Nick Foles a shot. Foles will absolutely get significant playing time this season if and when Vick gets hurt. If he performs well in those games, I think he should start. Besides, Philly fans are notoriously unforgiving. I’m not sure how many more lackluster Vick games they can take before Foles becomes the guy. Andy Reid loves to throw the football, and if Foles shows him something (kind of like the Kolb-Skelton situation that went down this week against Seattle), then I’m not sure Andy will hesitate to pull the trigger on a QB change. I don’t know if the Eagles’ brass considers Michael Vick’s job completely safe right now. But after that performance and Foles’ strong showing in the preseason, they shouldn’t.
• I’m taking the Packers over the Bears in the Thursday Night game. Even in his not totally in sync performance against the Niners, Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards and could have made a game of it if not for a killer interception in the possession following the Randall Cobb touchdown. Meanwhile, it’s a bit of an alarming sign that Jay Cutler started out 1-8 against the Colts. That’s not a typo, he started 1-8 against one of the worst secondaries in the league. And while the Packers’ defense surrenders a ton of yards, they do know how to make plays. They’ll get ample opportunity for that against the trigger-happy Cutler and his disorganized heap of an offensive line. The Pack will force at least three turnovers and win 30-17. W Packers 23, Bears 10

           WEEK TWO PICKS

After much alarm and hand-wringing, I did find out that Deion, Rich, and Mooch were still hosting the Thursday Night kickoff show together. What a relief. Now, let’s get to the picks.

Time Out: In the book, I lamented the separation of Deion, Rich, and Mooch on NFL Gameday Final.

CHIEFS VS BILLS I can’t decide which team I want to stay away from more in this matchup. The Bills looked absolutely awful in the Jets game. There was not a single good thing to say about that game from their standpoint, and it turns out that Ryan Fitzpatrick’s performance without cracked ribs is about the same as his performance with cracked ribs. BUT, the Chiefs’ defense is all kinds of banged up right now. They will get Tamba Hali back, but three other defensive starters (Brandon Flowers, Anthony Toribo, and Kendrick Lewis) are questionable, with Flowers being the one most likely to play. With the Bills playing at home, there could be the potential for an upset here. However, with Tamba Hali coming back for the Chiefs and an abomisaster (cross between abomination and disaster) of a game in Week 1, I can’t pick the Bills in good conscience. 30-22 Chiefs is my call for this one. L Bills 35, Chiefs 17

BROWNS VS BENGALS The Bengals could not have asked for a better game after that debacle against the Ravens on Monday Night. Put yourself in the position of a Bengals fan. Your defense got torched by Joe Flacco last week; why yes, I think I would like to face Brandon Weeden. Home game against a bottom five team? For me? Sounds great! The Browns don’t have a Vilma’s chance in Goodell’s office of winning this one. Bengals win by two scores at least. W Bengals 34, Browns 27

VIKINGS VS COLTS Hmmmm.... This one actually looks kind of interesting. Two exciting young QBs against bad secondaries in a dome? Count me in! I’m not entirely sure which defense is going to cave more; this one’s gonna come down to the quarterback that throws a killer interception halfway through the fourth quarter. I’m betting on Ponder making that mistake first. I’d go with the Colts by a score of 24-21. W Colts 23, Vikings 20

RAIDERS VS DOLPHINS Against my better judgment, I’m going with an upset on this one. The Raiders have to turn around from a disastrous late night loss on Monday Night and travel cross country on a short week to face a sneaky good Dolphins’ defense. This one just stinks of an ugly, six turnovers, twenty penalties combined kind of game. If I had nine TVs for the nine early games, I’d drop this one for a DVD of Any Given Sunday. I’ll take the Dolphins by a score of 13-10. W Dolphins 35, Raiders 13

CARDINALS VS PATRIOTS This could not be more of a clear-cut choice. If the Pats don’t win by at least two touchdowns, something went horribly, horribly wrong. If only Bernard Pollard played on the Cards.... L Cardinals 20, Patriots 18 Time Out: Something went horribly, horribly wrong.

BUCS VS GIANTS I was thinking about plugging an upset before I wisely backed out of it. Especially since I said, “Don’t overreact to Week 1” and then overreacted to it at least five times already. But still, I feel like this is gonna be closer than some people think. The Bucs’ defense looked fantastic last week, holding Carolina to only ten points. And that Giants’ secondary is still banged up. Prince Amukamara could be coming back, but might sit behind Michael Coe, who may or may not be coming back from a hamstring injury even though he may or may not but definitely won’t be at 100%. Still, I have to imagine that the Super Bowl champs will figure it out. Eli Manning will get back to doing Eli Manning things, they’ll outgain Tampa by at least 100 total yards or so, and they’ll win 28-17. W Giants 41, Bucs 34

RAVENS VS EAGLES Despite my much better judgment, I’m taking Philly here. I regret this pick even as I’m takin- never mind I’m going with Baltimore. I hated Michael Vick’s performance so much last week that there’s no way I can trust him to not negatively affect the game against the Ravens. And with that sentence, I can check, "Use a triple negative in my book" off of my bucket list. But I digress. Baltimore is the rare defense that might give a finesse runner like Shady McCoy problems, and they’re coming off of a huge season-opening win. Expect the Ravens’ D to be all over the field in a 24-10 win. The only way I can see Philly winning is if the Ravens’ corners blow some coverages and Vick connects with DeSean Jackson on a couple deep passes. Even then, the Ravens can play zone and bring pressure from a defensive back, which might be a smart idea because Vick has a 22.4 QBR when he sees a DB blitz. Other than the Jackson catching two long touchdowns scenario, I don’t see a situation where Philly ends up with much of a viable offense. L Eagles 24, Ravens 23

SAINTS VS PANTHERS I’m sticking to my preseason guns and taking Carolina in a mild upset over New Orleans. Jabari Greer is questionable and might not play on Sunday. You know what that means? More Cam Newton, please and thank you. Even in a low scoring loss against Tampa, he did throw for over 300 yards. However, the Panthers were handicapped by a faulty running game that produced post contract Chris Johnson-esque numbers. DeAngelo Williams finished the day with -1 yards rushing. The Panthers had 10 rushing yards total. That may or may not get better against a clueless Saints’ defense, but it can’t be worse than last week. Besides, the Panthers have an explosive passing game and the Saints have an interim to the interim head coach who made absolutely no halftime adjustments after being torched by RG3. Wow, I could have just written that last sentence and saved myself the short paragraph. Carolina wins 41-34 in a shootout. W Panthers 35, Saints 27

TEXANS VS JAGUARS Here’s an excerpt from a recent Bill Barnwell column:

“Blaine Gabbert looked great when the Jaguars offensive line was able to keep Jared Allen & Co. off of him, but that's not a surprise; the Vikings might have the least-pedigreed secondary in football. When the Vikes had even a little bit of pressure on Gabbert, he began to bumble.”Need I say more?  W Texans 27, Jaguars 7

REDSKINS VS RAMS This is another interesting game that I went back and forth on a bunch of times throughout the weekend. Ultimately, I’d take the Redskins here. Has any quarterback’s “welcome to the NFL” game ever happened in a dome? I know that the Rams looked great against the Lions last week, but there was a lot of sloppy execution by the Lions to accompany Cortland Finnegan’s pick six and Janoris Jenkins’ goal line pick. And how is it not an issue that Sam Bradford, a guy whose career has been more damaged by the lack of an O-Line than almost any other active QB, is playing without his starting left tackle? That’s not a big deal? Sam, meet Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. Redskins win 21-17. L Rams 31, Redskins 28

COWBOYS VS SEAHAWKS I’m not losing faith in Seattle just yet. Besides, doesn’t this one just scream of a typical Dallas Cowboys’ loss? They’re on the road in an incredibly loud stadium, the media has been throwing rose petals on them all week after a deceptively easy win, and Tony Romo is their quarterback. What am I missing here? The Seahawks are always roughly a hundred times better at home than they are on the road. Plus, they were playing first class grey and beige offense last week, giving Marshawn Lynch twenty carries and gaining a paltry 4.1 yards per pass. I get the feeling that since Seattle is at home and they know this is a must win for them, they’ll unleash Russell Wilson. I’m going with a 27-24 Seahawks’ upset. W Seahawks 27, Cowboys 7

JETS VS STEELERS Despite what I desperately want to happen, I’m going with Pittsburgh in this one. Not having Darrelle Revis is just going to be too much for the Jets to overcome. Even though the Steelers most likely won’t have Polamalu or Harrison, they still have more than enough talent on defense to take the Jets out of their element.The only way I can see the Jets potentially winning this one is if they get to Ben Roethlisberger early and often. If that pass rush doesn’t come through, then the Jets are severely shorthanded against Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. And I wouldn’t count on Sanchez repeating his fantastic performance on the road with LaMarr Woodley in his face. I’m taking the Steelers by a touchdown. W Steelers 27, Jets 10

TITANS VS CHARGERS The Chargers didn’t actually look that good in their win over the Raiders. Were it not for a faulty long snapper wrapping and putting a bow on the field position battle for them, they very easily could have lost. They couldn’t establish the point of attack without Ryan Mathews there.Then again, except for a pretty decent performance from Jake Locker, I didn’t find much to like about Tennessee either. Usually, my rule is to pick the home team when in doubt. But that also violates my “when in doubt, go against the Chargers” rule. Hmmmm..... I think I’ll go against San Diego. 31-28, Titans. L Chargers 38, Titans 10

LIONS VS 49ERS The two coaches who were involved in the handshake to end all handshakes are back at it again on Saturday Night. The Lions are not going to be able to run the ball effectively against San Francisco’s linebackers with just Kevin Smith, so that already makes them one dimensional. I don’t think that the Lions’ O-Line can handle a steady diet of Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis if there’s not at least the threat of a run. The Lions were also one of the sloppiest and most penalized teams in the league last year, while the Niners have gone six games without an offensive turnover. I’ll take the Niners by two touchdowns and Harbaugh over Schwartz if another handshake fight breaks out. W Niners 27, Lions 19

BRONCOS VS FALCONS Peyton Manning in a dome against a defense that just lost their all-pro number one corner? Yes, please! In the aftermath of Week 1, not many people except for Falcons’ fans acknowledged just how much of a loss cornerback Brent Grimes was. He had a down year, but there were few better in the 2009 and 2010 seasons at reading and reacting to the QB. His loss will leave the Falcons ill-prepared to deal with the Broncos, who will undoubtedly be using more and more of the no huddle offense and quick, intermediate slant routes to utilize their size advantage. Unlike against the Chiefs, the Falcons can’t win this game by turning it into a shootout. They need to get a few key stops against Peyton Manning, and I don’t believe that they’re going to be able to do that on a consistent basis. I’m taking the Broncos in this one. L Falcons 27, Broncos 21   

                                                            WEEK 3

                  THE CARDINALS DID WHAT!?

I spent Week 2 watching the games with some of my friends at my place. My friend Liam, fresh off of two hours of sleep on our school’s football field the night before (don't ask), came over along with the aforementioned Matt and Ray for a full slate of weekend games. Out of every single exciting moment that happened in Week 2, the Ryan Williams fumble and Gostkowski’s ensuing missed field goal were the only two things that made us totally lose our minds. We went completely and utterly insane. I think my dog was terrified to come downstairs. This whole game was especially brutal for Matt, a Pats fan who insisted that we stay on the Red Zone channel so we wouldn’t miss anything instead of watching Cards-Pats. Now that’s a friend. That whole two minute sequence, from the Williams fumble to the Woodhead touchdown that was called back to Gostkowski’s missed field goal, was absolutely unbelievable. Also, Matt blames me for jinxing it because I said, “there’s no way Gostkowski misses this” right before he missed the game winning field goal. I take full credit.

The Pats have lost one September game in each of the last four years, with each loss getting less and less explainable. In 2008, they were blown out by the Miami Dolphins when they brought back the Wildcat offense. It took a formation that had not been widely employed in the NFL for decades to hand the Pats their first regular season loss since 2006. In 2009 and 2010, they lost on the road to a very good Jets team. Maybe the execution could have been better on their part, but certainly no one would call that an unforgivable loss. In 2011, they let the Bills come back from a 21-0 deficit to win 34-31. The four Brady interceptions are all you need to know about that one. But this loss? How does anyone explain this? Even without Aaron Hernandez, the Pats seriously couldn’t generate any offense whatsoever? Once they’re past the opponent’s 40 yard line, it’s usually a fantastic bet that they take it in for a touchdown. There’s almost no team in the league that’s as good at making the most of opportunities as the Pats are. Yet not only did they go until the two minute warning without a touchdown, but they botched Williams’ fumble, the rarest of opportunities that completely fell out of the sky and into their lap. How does this make any sense?

The conclusion that I’ve come to is the same conclusion that a lot of people came to; we simply don’t know. I read about ten different Pats-Cardinals articles this morning, and nobody could agree on a reason for why this happened. So as much as I’d like to pretend that this is a larger trend that will ultimately result in the complete collapse of the Belichick-Brady era, it’s far more likely that this is a one-off. How often does Tom Brady have a game like that? How often do blocked punts, like the one that set the Cards up inside the Pats ten yard line for their only touchdown, happen? The answer to both of them is not very often. The only bad thing about this game that could potentially carry over to their showdown with Baltimore this Sunday is the injury to Aaron Hernandez. If he does end up missing the 4-6 weeks that some reports are saying he’ll miss, things are suddenly going to be very difficult on the Patriots from now until when he gets back. But as a sub-rule to my “don’t overreact to the early weeks of the football season” rule, the “don’t overreact to abnormalities in good teams” credo has been proven true time and time again. If you were one of the Packers fans who freaked out after the Niners manhandled them in Week 1, you experienced this firsthand. The Packers figured out a different way to win against the Bears, and that’s just what the Pats will do from here on out. The Hernandez injury is a tough one to deal with, but the truly great teams always figure it out. It was a shocking loss, but it’s nowhere near time to panic yet for New England.

       I CAN’T FIGURE OUT THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

I have absolutely no earthly idea what to think of the Eagles this year. None whatsoever. In fact, I had to spend about an hour listing the pros and the cons when it hit me. Why am I trying to draw a conclusion about the most confusing team in the league right now after Week 2 when I can just list their pros and cons? That way, I won’t have to commit either way on the Eagles and can get an easy 600-700 or more words out of it. Sounds great! Let’s start with.....

THE PROS: The Eagle defense is looking a whole lot better this year. Sure, Brandon Weeden and Joe Flacco aren’t exactly Young and Montana, but the Eagles’ defense single-handedly kept them in and ultimately won both of their games. This year’s Eagles have a lot better tackling and fundamentals than 2011’s squad did. After they pulled out the win over the Ravens, my friend Ray said, “it’s so nice to watch guys like DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks who know how to tackle. Last year, it sucked having to watch Chris Gocong and Casey Matthews miss all those arm tackles. Every time I see Fletcher Cox wrap a guy up, it’s like a breath of fresh air." Isn’t that exactly what you want to hear after last season if you’re an Eagles fan? The 2011 Paper Eagles were the team that I frequently describe as the best in almost everything that isn’t a fundamental, so isn’t it a fantastic thing that they have a great running game and are starting to tackle well? Isn’t this no different from how the Niners turned their team around? Besides, the Paper Eagles would have blown one or both of those games. Here’s a relevant quote from Nnamdi Asomugha in the postgame press conference:

"I think the belief is what's new. I think we would say the same thing in the huddle last year, but we'd be wondering what play we were going to run and not really be believing it. So I think that belief is there now that, when it comes down to the end of the game, we can finish it off."

This is illuminating on two levels. First of all, it highlights some intangibles that just weren’t there for the Eagles last year. Second of all, it shows that the Eagles’ D has a better idea of what their gameplan is because there was minimal personnel turnover and a full offseason. This seems significant for a team that was one game away from making the playoffs last year.

CONS: Andy Reid. Quite possibly the shakiest short-yardage/crunch time play caller in the league. He’s good at a lot of things as a coach, but he always seems to antagonize Eagles fans at the worst possible time. For instance, even though he scored on the play to give the Eagles the go-ahead touchdown, having Michael Vick line up in the shotgun formation with no running backs beside him on the one yard line would have been panned by every sports talk radio host in Philly had it failed. How about his earlier decision to go for it on fourth down and one with Bryce Brown? Savvy idea, Andy. What do we need LeSean McCoy for? Plus, there is absolutely no way that the Eagles can keep turning the ball over this frequently. They’ve turned the ball over nine times and are somehow 2-0. The Kansas City Chiefs have the next most turnovers with 6, and then four teams have committed five turnovers. Those five teams are a combined 2-8 this year. Wouldn’t this suggest that it’s just luck that’s keeping the Eagles from being 0-2? The Eagles were T.J. Ford’s hands and the replacement officials away from being 0-2 right now, and some would argue that they deserve that mark instead of the 2-0 record that they currently have. It’s a miracle that Michael Vick hasn’t gotten hurt yet, but the argument can be made that he’s the worst quarterback in the NFC East. Even though he’s led two game-winning drives, he was forced to do so by his own play earlier in the game, which put them in a situation where they needed a game-winning drive. In a division where two of the three other teams have a weakness in the secondary, the Eagles’ lack of a conventional quarterback that can consistently take advantage of opportunities is going to be a big problem. Speaking of potential problems with Michael Vick, the Eagles have lost starting center Jason Kelce for the year. Since the center is the one that calls the protection schemes, it’s going to take at least a week or two to adjust to Kelce’s absence. And there’s a certain quarterback with a few healing broken ribs that can’t afford the transition to take that long. Also, you have to consider the fact that their coach is Andy Reid. I feel like I have to mention it two times because it’s super important. With the Eagles, no leads are completely safe and each drive feels like a highwire act above the Delaware River. The Eagles have tempted fate so far, but they’ve managed to go 2-0 on a +2 point differential. It will be very interesting to see whether the Pro Eagles or the Con Eagles come out in the next few weeks

.

WEEK 3: ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS

• The Bleacher Report just posted a photo of a fan at the Broncos-Falcons game wearing a Peyton Manning jersey that read “Eli’s brother” on the back. The crazy thing is, it’s absolutely defensible to refer to Eli as the main Manning (and here I promised I’d stop making bad puns). He’s won more Super Bowls, has come up bigger in key moments, and done it without the unwavering support from New York fans that Peyton had in Indy. Maybe he never earned that unwavering support and it’s unrealistic to be beyond reproach in New York, but I think he’s done more in the way of winning key games than Peyton has. If you were told in 2006 that one Manning brother threw three picks in the first quarter on Monday Night Football in a loss and the other one threw for 500 yards in a comeback victory, you would have put Eli down for the loss and Peyton in the win column, right? I’m not sure who is going to end up having the better career when all is said and done, but I would choose Eli over Peyton as the better player for the moment. The “Manning vs Manning” story is going to reach a deafening crescendo if and when the Broncos and the Giants meet. Come to think of it, that would make for an interesting Super Bowl. Hmm......
• Along the lines of the Philadelphia Eagles, another team that I can’t quite figure out what to do with yet is the San Diego Chargers. I can never quite figure out what to think about this team, but it’s especially difficult this year. This team is 2-0, but they did it against a team ruined by a faulty long snapper and the punchless Tennessee Titans. They don’t have a running game, but that’s because Ryan Mathews is out. In case we needed some more question marks, I don’t know what’s going on with Antonio Gates after he was held out of the Titans game because of a rib injury. I’m not making a decision one way or another on these guys yet. I’m leaning towards calling them a pretender rather than a contender because of the lack of quality opposition so far and the fact that Norv Turner is their coach. Also, don't forget about the whole "Norv Turner is their coach" thing. That’s important. Besides, there’s always one or two teams every year that start the season quickly only to fall back down to the pack when they face quality opposition, like the Bills did in 2011. However, it’s entirely possible that they’re a good team and Phillip Rivers has made the leap. Their home game against Atlanta will serve as a nice test.
• I’m going with the Giants over the Panthers in the Thursday Night game. The Panthers won a shootout against the decomposing New Orleans Saints, but I’m not sure how they’ll hold up against the Giants’ pass rush. The Giants are one of the few teams that have the necessary speed off the edge to keep Cam Newton in the pocket. Plus, how is this Panthers’ secondary much better than the one that Eli Manning just torched a couple of days ago? It’s gonna be another shootout, but I’m counting on the Giants scoring one more than the Panthers. I’m taking the Giants in a 35-31 victory. W Giants 36, Panthers 7

                   WEEK 3 PICKS 9/19/12

RAMS AT BEARS: I went back and forth on this one a couple times. On the one hand, the Bears’ O-Line is a mess. On the other hand, they are playing at home and the Rams don’t really have an elite pass rusher to take advantage of the Bears’ big weakness. I’m not buying into the notion that the NFC West and the Rams are suddenly good until I see some more conclusive proof, and I’m going to pick accordingly. I’m going with the Bears by a score of 23-20. W Bears 23, Rams 6

BILLS AT BROWNS I hate everything about this game. I refuse to even give it a proper review. You can’t make me do it. I’ll take the Bills. I need to move on before I start to feel even more nauseated. W Bills 24, Browns 14

BUCS VS COWBOYS I’m taking the Cowboys in this one. As you read in the season preview (unless you skipped it, in which case I can’t blame you), I’m not buying the new and improved  Bucs. It’s a very young team with a lot of new pieces on offense and in the coaching staff, but still trotting out the same inept secondary as the 2011 Bucs. Maybe I’m being too harsh on Tampa Bay (I am a big fan of Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson), but I don’t think that they’re going to easily rebound from the Giants loss. A lot of young teams rely on momentum to carry them, and tough losses are often bad signs for the next game as well. Plus, they’re going into the stadium that tops the league in attendance in its home opener. I’m not liking their chances. I’ll take Dallas by a score of 34-23. W Cowboys 16, Bucs 10

LIONS VS TITANS It can absolutely be argued that the Titans are the worst team in the league right now. I can’t even name a single area where they’re above average. They might be slightly better than average at wide receiver, but certainly nothing that’s going to give the Lions’ defense fits. And given their lackadaisical defense against the Chargers sans Antonio Gates last week, I doubt that they’ll be of much use against Calvin Johnson. I’m taking Detroit by two touchdowns here. L Titans 44, Lions 41 (OT)

JAGUARS VS COLTS Hey, remember the AFC South of 2007 that fielded three playoff teams over 9-7? Good times. Now, one of these teams will go 6-10 or 7-9 and still be the AFC South’s second best team. This is another yawner on a terrible slate of early games. The Jags aren’t good enough to beat anybody on the road, and they’re not effective enough on blitzes to take advantage of Andrew Luck. I’ll take the Colts to win and the Jags to drop to 0-3 to the surprise of absolutely nobody. Also, if this name is still relevant by the time you’re reading this, keep an eye on Guy Whimper the next time he starts at tackle. If not, then just watch some tape of J.J. Watt obliterating him in the Texans’ game. It was Wayne Hunter-esque. Time Out: If you’re one of the six Jets fans reading this book that got the reference..... then high five.L Jaguars 22, Colts 17

JETS VS DOLPHINS This is a game where the Jets need to take care of their business. They were worn down and punched in the mouth late by Pittsburgh, and they need to bounce back in Miami. If they don’t, they’ll be 1-2 with the Niners and Texans in their next two games and the Pats two weeks after that. Even though the Week 2 Dolphins looked great, I’m not buying their performance against a jet-lagged Raiders team. The only time Ryan Tannehill has seen anything like a Rex Ryan blitz was in Week 1 against the Texans, and he handled that somewhat poorly. I’m not confident in his ability to handle this one any better. I’ll take the Jets by a score of 24-17. W Jets 23, Dolphins 20 (OT)

VIKINGS VS NINERS There’s absolutely nothing on this Vikings team that the Niners’ D shouldn’t be able to easily handle. If they were able to so easily bottle up the Packers and the Lions, then the Vikings should be no problem. The only thing of note about the Vikings offense is that they have a running game, something that the first two teams on the Niners schedule didn’t have. If Adrian Peterson can rip off a few medium length first downs or more, it will be interesting to see if things get any easier on Christian Ponder. Any team that hopes to beat the Niners needs to run the ball and force turnovers. While the Vikings might be able to run the ball, Alex Smith will still be at his game managing best against a Vikes’ secondary that blew all sorts of coverages against the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck. I’ll take the Niners in a 21-3 win. L Vikings 24, Niners 13

CHIEFS VS SAINTS I think I’ve done OK on predictions so far. Time Out: No, I haven’t. I’d at least like to think that I’ve won some and lost some. Time Out: That’s a pretty generous statement. And it turns out that the one team I really have a good handle on so far  is the Saints. But I’m reversing the past two weeks’ trend and taking the Saints in this one. The Chiefs’ secondary has offered minimal resistance to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and there are too many mismatches to count on a banged-up secondary. With Kendrick Lewis just getting back from injury, I think Jimmy Graham is going to very much enjoy this one. Besides, would you rather go with Drew Brees or the team that prompted this tirade from radio host Bob Fescoe?

Fescoe:Stop embarrassing yourselves! You're embarrassing your mother. You're embarrassing your father. You're embarrassing the city. You're embarrassing your wife and your children. ... You're an embarrassing trainwreck to the 2.5 million people that call this metro area home. You've let down all the old ladies that are on life support, rooting for you, trying to pull out another day. You give people nothing to live for. You suck.

Uh, I’ll be taking New Orleans please and thank you. L Chiefs 27, Saints 24 (OT)

BENGALS AT REDSKINS I’m going with an upset pick here. I really like Cincinatti in this one. This is the first game that RG3 is playing outside of a dome, and each rookie QB has at least one terrible game in their first four weeks as a starter. Look back through NFL history, and you’ll see that it almost never fails. I’m banking on this one being the bad week. Besides, the Washington secondary has surrendered a lot of big plays this year, and Andy Dalton is coming into this game with momentum to spare from decimating the Browns for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Redskins have recently lost both Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker for the year, so I’m not really confident in their ability to create big plays defensively (read: turnovers). I’m going with a 24-20 upset in favor of the Bengals. And if RG3 makes me look like a fool, well, then so be it. W Bengals 38, Redskins 31

EAGLES AT CARDINALS Is it so crazy that I’m going with the Cardinals here? It seems like they might have a legitimately good defense, and I’m a huge believer in Patrick Peterson. The Cardinals left him with almost no over the top help all day against the Pats, and he shut down whichever receiver he was lined up against. He blanketed Brandon Lloyd all over the field. and I have a feeling that he’s going to do the same to DeSean Jackson. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders’ advanced stats absolutely hate the Eagles offense so far. They’re ranked 29th in VOA so far at -20.4%. In other words, they’re rated as 20 percent worse than the average offense would have performed under their circumstances (again, go to footballoutsiders.com to find a better explanation than I could possibly give you). That’s not going to get better if Andy Reid continues to not rely on LeSean McCoy and instead lets Michael Vick throw 44 times per game, like he’s been doing so far. Add in the emotional peak from a Baltimore win and a trip out west and this feels like a game that Philly could very easily lose. Oh, and their center is out for the year. That too. I’ll take Arizona by a score of 17-13. W Cardinals 27, Eagles 6

FALCONS AT CHARGERS You know what? I’m going against the Chargers one more time. If they win this one, they’ll have won me over. But their two wins came against the faulty long-snapping Raiders and the could not be more bland Titans. Antonio Gates is still questionable, and Ryan Mathews is still out. Plus, we’re overdue for a Philip Rivers stinker, and it seems like the defense that just picked off Manning four times is much obliged to provide it. I’m taking Atlanta by a touchdown and Julio Jones to go over 100 yards and catch at least two touchdowns. It’s time for his big breakout game. W Falcons 27, Chargers 3

STEELERS AT RAIDERS I’m calling this one almost an upset. I feel like Pittsburgh will win in overtime or on a last second field goal. I was going to spring for the upset here, but then I remembered two things. One, the Raiders crippled  Darren McFadden, a downhill runner, by installing a vision and speed based zone blocking scheme. So they can say goodbye to their number one offensive weapon operating at maximum effectiveness. Two, I just can’t get out of my head how awful the Raiders were last week. I know that the jet-lag and the heat were killers, but I did not expect their defense to be that terrible. They surrendered 452 yards to the Dolphins, for goodness’ sake! The Steelers didn’t play as well as their 27-10 W over the Jets would suggest, but I just can’t pick the Raiders after that game. It would be absolute heresy. I feel like the East-West travel dynamic and the fact that the Steelers are starting the season a little bit flat will have some effect on the game, but not that much. I’ll go with the Steelers in overtime. L Raiders 34, Steelers 31

TEXANS AT BRONCOS Now we’re getting to the good stuff. It’s a nice rebound off that terrible early game slate. Since I’m a huge believer in the Texans right now, I think I’ll stick with them. I firmly believe that the Texans’ front seven is the best in the league, and they’ve upheld one of the central Football Outsiders principles that the best measure of an elite team is whether they can dominate inferior teams. This is going to be a huge statement win for either team, and I think that Peyton is going to be a little bit rattled when he sees his first really good pass rush (the Steelers were a little bit banged up). I’ll take the Texans by 6. W Texans 31, Broncos 25

PATRIOTS AT RAVENS I like Baltimore here. The Patriots offense is positively screwed without Aaron Hernandez (or so Matt told me in his nervous breakdown this past week), and newly signed tight end Kellen Winslow’s knee is about one love tap with a helmet away from giving out. Thank goodness that Bernard Pollard isn’t.... whoops, he is. Never mind. The Pats are going to have an especially difficult time if they continue to freeze Wes Welker out of their offense like they did last week. Seriously, can anybody explain to me why he wasn’t on the field for every passing play? Add in a ticked off Ravens team at home that’s dying to get revenge for the AFC Championship game, and I’m sold on the Ravens for this one. W Ravens 31, Patriots 20

PACKERS AT SEAHAWKS Yep, I managed to resist the urge to do something stupid with this pick. This is another one that might be a bit closer than people would otherwise think, but I think that the Packers win this one. They showed last week against the Bears that they’re able to win physical games, and their defense is going to relish the chance to face a not totally comfortable Russell Wilson. Clay Matthews has 6.5 sacks right now, by far the most in the league, and I’ve gotta imagine that he and the rest of Dom Capers’ Psycho defense will be at their best against Seattle. The Seahawks’ crowd and secondary are both absolute killers when trying to play from behind, but I don’t think that the Packers will ever put themselves in that position. I’ve got the Packers by a score of 27-14. W (Yes, I know that the Seahawks technically won. But it’s my book and I refuse to let the replacement refs’ screw-up stand even if the league will.) Packers 12, Seahawks 7

                       WEEK 4

                   WOW, THAT WAS AWESOME

The Tennessee Titans and the Detroit Lions played one of the best games I’ve ever seen in my life. It was absolutely nuts. For the first time in NFL history, a single team had five touchdowns of over sixty yards. The Titans racked up over 400 yards of total offense and an astounding 7.2 yards per play in a 44-41 victory. In other words, the Titans’ average distance on second down was second and three. Offensive coordinators dream of games like this. You know what the weird thing is? The Titans were completely outgained! The Detroit Lions racked up 583 yards of total offense, 442 passing yards, and a 40:36 time of possession figure. And those insane numbers weren’t the half of it.

          It looked like an average game with half of the fourth quarter to go. Well, besides an insane punt return where Darius Reynaud and Tommy Campbell re-enacted the Music City Miracle and gave Chris Berman the chance to show the Music City Miracle clip two more times on NFL Countdown. You know, little details. Matt Stafford had just connected with Nate Burleson on a three yard touchdown to put the Lions ahead 25-20. Just for good measure, Stafford went ahead and threw the two point conversion to Burleson as well. However, I didn’t even have enough time to grab more nachos before I saw Reynaud streaking towards the end zone for a 105 yard kickoff return. I even missed some of the Jets game because I absolutely had to see what was going to happen next in this one, thus once again proving that professional sports are the best form of reality television.

          Once the Titans got the ball back, quarterback Jake Locker wasted no time hitting Nate Washington in stride for a 72 yard touchdown. Washington had to leap halfway over his defender, reach down behind the defender’s back (while still in front of him), trap the ball against the defender’s body for a millisecond, secure it, and then run in for a touchdown. That whole process took less than half a second. Now it was desperation time for Detroit when they got the ball back. Matthew Stafford searched the field, clearly wanting to go deep. He didn’t find anything, so he checked it down to tight end Brandon Pettigrew. And here’s the first thing from this game that I’ve never seen before in my life. As Pettigrew turned upfield to advance the ball, Titans’ CB Alterraun Verner just took the ball from him and ran it back the other way for a touchdown. I’ve seen the ground cause fumbles, hard hits cause fumbles, incompetence cause fumbles, and strips cause fumbles, but I’ve never seen the ball so matter-of-factly taken right from somebody’s hands. Verner just ran up and yanked the ball away from Pettigrew like I yank chew toys out of my dog’s mouth. To make matters even worse for the Lions, Stafford was injured on the play. Well, time to pack up. Great game, nice job, nice effort everybody. But as Lee Corso always says….

          NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Shaun Hill comes in the game and starts driving the Lions down the field. Twenty yards to Johnson here, out of bounds. Twenty-two yards to Johnson over there, out of bounds. A couple more dumpoff passes and the Lions are suddenly knocking on the door. That door would soon be kicked down by a Hill to Calvin Johnson touchdown pass. 41-34, Titans with eighteen seconds left.

          Well, that was nice. Shaun Hill looked good, the Lions were able to pad their stats a little bit, but I should really get back to the Jets game once the Titans recover the onside- The next thing I see is Amari Spievey coming away from the pile with the football for the Lions after the onside kick.

          Cool, maybe I’ll stick around for the inevitable failed Hail Mary attempt. I mean, these things work maybe once every couple years. Still, it was a good effort by the Lions to battle back this far. They stuck with it and never gave-

          TOUCHDOWN!?!?!?!?!? TOUCHDOWN!!!!!! WHAT THE!?!?!?!?!?

          I’m typing this on Monday morning and I’m still kind of in shock. A last second Hail Mary to tie the game? That isn’t supposed to happen unless Gus Johnson’s there! But the ball bounced perfectly off a defender’s glove and into the arms of a waiting Titus Young. Even though it’s probably an ultimately inconsequential moment over the course of the season, I’ll be telling my kids I saw that moment live.

          Of course, there was still an overtime to play. The Titans get the ball first and drive into the Lions’ end for a field goal. OK, that was pretty run of the mill. So the Lions do likewise and get down to the Titans’ 7 when a fourth and one situation comes up. Time to send out Jason Hanson for a pretty automatic- wait a minute. What is Shaun Hill doing still out on the field? Maybe they’re just trying to draw the Titans offsides. Maybe that’s it. Yeah.

The next thing I see is the ball being marked short of the first down marker and the Titans running off the field with their arms raised.

I’m not certain what to take away from this game. Yes, we can take away that the defenses of both teams are causes for concern, and that’s an understatement. But this was just one of those wild, unpredictable games that make football great. I never left the edge of my seat for a second after that fourth quarter started. Well, there might be one thing to take away from it.

Jim Schwartz’s decision to go for the first down was almost universally panned as one of the most stupid coaching decisions we’ve seen this year. However, he claims that there was a miscommunication. The Lions’ offense was in fact just supposed to draw the Titans offsides. They had no intention of actually snapping the football. All I can say is, the Lions need to get better communication. I don’t know whose fault it was that the ball was snapped; Stafford’s or center Dominic Raiola’s, but both parties knew the play call and should have stuck to it. Raiola might have been fooled by his own quarterback’s hard count, a deliberately exaggerated count used to draw a defense offsides. If that is the case, then Raiola just forgot the snap cadence. Whether it’s this miscommunication or leading the league in personal fouls last year, the Lions have shown a consistent record of lacking discipline. If they don’t reverse the trend soon, they might find themselves watching the playoffs the same way the Titans will come January.

                            WHAT HAPPENED TO SAN FRAN!?

After dominating the Lions and the Packers, the Niners were handily defeated on the road by the Minnesota Vikings. Even with the benefit of two extra challenge flags that the replacement refs somehow made fall out of the sky, the Niners lost to Minnesota by a score of 24-13. So what happened? Why did the mighty San Francisco 49ers suddenly collapse against the likes of Christian Ponder? Well, let’s look at it.

First of all, the Vikings were able to establish a running game. True, it wasn’t anything special. Adrian Peterson ran the ball 25 times for 89 yards and no touchdowns. However, it was better than the 53 yards that Kevin Smith produced in Week Two. Or, you know, the dismal 18 yards on 9 carries that Cedric Benson had in Week One. Teams that rely on the big play as a large part of their offense, like the Packers and the Lions, are out of luck against San Francisco. The Niners aren’t big blitzers; most of their pressure comes from their front three plus a rushing linebacker. If you rely on the deep ball, then you’re most likely going to have to throw against two fantastic coverage linebackers, one of the deepest cornerback units in the league, and at least two deep safeties (which are most likely Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner). There’s not much that can be done about the corners except for making good throws, but running the ball effectively will draw another linebacker and/or deep safety into the box. Then, maybe there will be some opportunities down the field. Nobody in the NFL can beat the Niners when everybody on their defense is maintaining their roles and doing their jobs. Other teams have to make them adjust in order to succeed, and that’s where the running game comes in handy. Things like quarterback scrambles, sweeps, and play action can be used to great effect against the Niners. The Vikings used those tools to stretch the Niners’ defense both vertically and horizontally. However, instead of stretching them vertically in the traditional sense by testing them on deep passes, the Vikings gave Peterson those carries so they could get as many Niners as possible up at the line of scrimmage. Once they were there, that created an imbalance of defenders in the box, and linebackers weren’t able to get back in coverage on tight end Kyle Rudolph in the red zone, who finished the game with five catches and two touchdowns. If Smith, Willis, and Bowman can be roped into playing another team’s game instead of theirs own, then you have a chance.

It’s also very important to execute on the fundamentals. Like I said, the Niners are the worst enemy of teams that require big plays to succeed. Instead, the best way to beat the Niners is four yards at a time. When you play San Francisco, it’s time to get back to the basics of football. For instance, the Vikings won the turnover battle, something that’s only happened four times in the history of the Jim Harbaugh-era Niners. Winning the time of possession battle, something that the Vikings did by about three minutes, is also central to beating the Niners because they’ll have less time to reel off those nine and ten play touchdown drives that their team is built on. It’s also essential to not have a lot of penalties. No team takes more advantage of those free yards than San Fran, and the Vikings didn’t give them the opportunity to get them. They were penalized once for ten yards as opposed to the Niners’ six penalties for sixty yards.

However, the most important thing is to set the tone of the game early. The Vikings took up roughly half of the first quarter on a sixteen play, 82 yard touchdown drive. That’s how a game against the Harbaugh-era Niners has to start for a team to have a good chance of winning. If the Niners are allowed to score first and set the tone, they pretty much already won. No team is better at protecting a lead than the Niners, especially if they’re playing at home. Once the Niners get a good lead, then they can run the ball downhill with Frank Gore and have Alex Smith convert short and medium third downs all day. Once they start dropping those safeties back and getting pressure with only four rushers, you have no chance. Other teams have to flip the script on them. Make Alex Smith rally back and beat you. Take away their running game. Force them to respect your running game. And no matter what, always execute the fundamentals. The Vikings did all of these things, and that’s why they came out on top.

            WEEK 4: ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS

• It goes pretty much without saying (yet somehow I’m saying it anyways) that I like Baltimore over Cleveland. Should I bother explaining this one? Nah. W Ravens 23, Browns 16
• Holy Bob Fescoe, the Chiefs finally pulled out a game! Sure, it was against a decrepit Saints defense that let Jamaal Charles rush for more yards in one game (233) than four other teams in the league have for the season so far (Titans, Cowboys, Steelers, and Raiders), but still. And while we’re here, the Saints are almost at the point of no return this year. Starting 0-3 in a super-deep NFC is already bad enough, but then you throw in that defense? The one that’s dead last in rushing yards allowed and 17% worse than an average defense according to Football Outsiders? Ew. Once you blow a 24-6 lead over Kansas City at home by allowing 21 uncontested points, it’s just about a lost season. That said, I can’t wait to see them against Green Bay this week. If someone gave me an over/under 20 on the number of blown coverages in that game, I might just take the over on that one.
• The best team in the league at this point is clearly the Houston Texans. They took care of business in both Week 1 and Week 2, plus they obliterated the Broncos (the score was 31-25, but don’t let that fool you. Denver was down 31-11 at one point). Moreover, what doesn’t this team have? Foster and Ben Tate are one of the best one-two punches at running back that the NFL has ever seen, and the Texans as a team average almost four yards per carry. Their defense ranks first in Value over Average, coming in at 35% better than an average defense in their situation. The now earless Matt Schaub might not be a top five or even top ten QB, but he can get the job done and make big plays when necessary. Aren’t the Texans by far the most complete team in the NFL from what we’ve seen so far? In Weeks 5,6,7 they face the Jets on the road, then Baltimore and Green Bay at home. If they emerge from that stretch unscathed, then this team can make a strong case for being this year’s Super Bowl favorite.
• If I’m Rex Ryan, I’m either not changing the defensive game plan at all after the Revis injury or I’m taking it in an even more blitz-heavy direction. The Jets can only beat good teams without Revis if they get pressure on the quarterback. In the last two years, the Jets have never gotten an interception on a play where Darrelle Revis was not on the field. Considering the game plan they switch to without him, I’m not surprised. Take another look at some of the game film from Week Two against the Steelers. The Jets employed far more zone concepts than they usually did, and that let Roethlisberger sit back and pick them apart. It was plodding four man rushes all the way with the occasional plodding three man rush thrown in. Nothing was open downfield, but Roethlisberger could get all the seven yard dump paases he wanted. The Jets still got beaten, it just happened more slowly. When they did start blitzing, it was because they were behind late and needed to make something happen. Even then, they got very close to a couple of sacks and couldn’t finish the job because Ben Roethlisberger kept shaking them off. Still, it was progress. The point is, enough of this garbage zone defense without Revis. I want a defense that plays to win instead of one that plays not to lose. If the Jets get beaten, at least they’ll get beaten going for the win and playing their game. This team claims its philosophy is “Ground and Pound” when they do neither effectively. It’s time to go for broke, and that starts by restoring the Pound.

               WEEK 4 PICKS: 9-27-12

PANTHERS AT FALCONS Is the cat finally out of the bag on Carolina? Will I ever stop making terrible puns? Seriously, that Thursday Night game against the Giants was a complete mockery. The Giants dominated them in every phase of the game, and they were playing on the road. I still think that Carolina is better than they’ve shown so far this season and Atlanta is a little worse, but I can’t justify picking the Panthers after their offense looked so discombobulated on Thursday Night. I’m not completely sold on Atlanta because they’re not especially strong up front, but they’ll win this one by a score of 31-16.  W Falcons 30, Panthers 28

PATS AT BILLS You have no idea how much I’d love to call this one a trap game for New England, but I can’t do it. The Pats haven’t had a three game losing streak in the 2000s, and they would be 3-0 if not for a missed kick in the Cardinals game and a (cough, cough) illegal contact penalty and the subsequent made field goal in the Ravens game. The last two games have made the Bills look way better than they are. People are suddenly back in on the Bills for some reason after they beat Kansas City and Cleveland, quite possibly the two worst teams in the league. Plus, C.J. Spiller is most likely out for this game. So, we’ve got a punchless Bills team facing a ticked off Pats team that’s desperate to avoid it’s first three game losing streak since I was in diapers. I’m not gonna overthink this one. I’ll take the Pats by two touchdowns. W Patriots 52, Bills 28

VIKINGS AT LIONS I thought about taking the Vikings here, but I can’t do it. There’s a real possibility that the Niners game was the best game Minnesota will play all season. They’re still incredibly weak in the secondary. Let’s not forget that they almost lost to the Jaguars and Blaine Gabbert on a last second touchdown pass to Cecil Shorts over number one cornerback Chris Cook. Thank goodness the Lions don’t have anybody that can exploit the weakness in the secondary. Whoops, they have Calvin Johnson. My bad. Even on the off chance that Matt Stafford can’t play, I’m still very confident in the Lions’ ability to put up points against this defense. I’ll take the Lions by a score of 38-21. L Vikings 20, Lions 13

CHARGERS AT CHIEFS The Chargers came out completely flat last week against the Falcons in typical Norv Turner fashion. Meanwhile, it looks like Jamaal Charles could have possibly regained some of his mojo from the 2010 season against the Saints last week. Norv Turner’s Chargers always come out of the gates struggling, and they’re going to the second loudest stadium in the league. Plus, I’m feeling like we could potentially see another Philip Rivers stinker here. Sounds like a dumb Chiefs win to me! I’m taking Kansas City by a score of 23-20. L Chargers 37, Chiefs 20

SEAHAWKS AT RAMS I’m taking a road upset and picking the Seahawks over the Rams. Since Rams’ tackle Roger Saffold sprained his MCL and won’t be playing for another week or two, the Rams are forced to start Wayne Hunter. Yep, the same Wayne Hunter that let countless defensive ends and blitzing linebackers take the turnstile route to yet another hit on Mark Sanchez. The same Wayne Hunter that would probably commit a false start penalty if I yelled, “Hey, Wayne, look up here!” from the stands. That’s the same guy who is starting this game for the Rams. Sam Bradford, meet Bruce Irvin, Chris Clemons, and Red Bryant. You’ll be getting very well acquainted by the second quarter. I’ll go with the Seahawks in a 13-6 defensive struggle. L Rams 19, Seahawks 13

NINERS AT JETS The Jets aren’t absolutely screwed in this game, but only because San Fran doesn’t have an elite QB or a great wide receiver. The Jets aren’t necessarily going to miss Revis against Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith. No, the Niners are going to win this one for a different reason. They’re absolutely dominant up front. The Dolphins completely bullied the Jets last week. They were able to establish the running game and a lead. However, the Dolphins are not a good team, so it wasn’t that much of an issue when the Jets were down 10-3. On the other hand, the Niners love nothing more than to take a quick ten point lead and then stick it in their back pockets. The Jets have to win the battle of the lines and not turn the ball over, and they’ve already demonstrated that they can’t do either. I’ll take the Niners by a score of 23-13. W Niners 34, Jets 0

TITANS AT TEXANS Even though that gimmicky win over the Lions last week was really fun, don’t let that fool you. The Titans are not a good team. In general, any win that features a bunch of big special teams plays and gimmicks (like throwing the ball across the field on a punt return) are alarming because there’s no way that can be duplicated consistently in future games. The Titans still don’t have a rushing attack, and their defense is surrendering almost 40 points per game. I don’t hold out a lot of hope that a miracle will occur and their defense will be fixed before they face the best running game in the league. The Texans are the best team in football right now, and they’ll play the part against a clearly inferior team at home. I’ll take Houston by three touchdowns. W Texans 38, Titans 14

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS Wow, the Raiders could not have come at a better time. The Broncos have the second toughest schedule in the league as of pre-season rankings. They’ve also fallen behind by twenty points in their last two games. Home game against the 26th ranked Raiders’ passing defense? Peyton Manning will take that. I’ll take the Broncos, 35-20. W Broncos 37, Raiders 6

DOLPHINS AT CARDINALS Even though I think that the Cardinals are eventually going to come back down to Earth and then some, this is not the week. I didn’t have a lot of confidence in Ryan Tannehill to begin with, and I have less in Ryan Tannehill traveling cross country. With Darrelle Revis out (WHY!?!?!?), Patrick Peterson is the top corner in the league. He, Calais Campbell, and the rest of the Cardinals’ D are going to tee off on Tannehill. I’ll take the Cardinals by a score of 12-3. W Cardinals 24, Dolphins 21 (OT)

BENGALS AT JAGUARS With the regular officials back, the crew assignments are going up as they always do on football-refs.com. So imagine my delight when I found out who was back in action for this game. That’s right, it’s The Lawyer himself, Ed Hochuli! I’m unbelievably glad to have the Gun Show back in action for this one. In a somewhat related story, I’m jumping on Jacksonville here. Both defenses are susceptible to big plays, but Maurice Jones-Drew looks like he’s getting back on track. I’ll take MJD to go over 100 yards with two touchdowns, and I’ll take Jacksonville in an upset. The Cincy defense has really lost it’s way, and I expect it to take up until their bye week for them to fix it. L Bengals 27, Jaguars 10

SAINTS AT PACKERS This game has taught me to not use pen when I circle games in the NFL Preview magazine. I was looking forward to this one since I saw it on the schedule back in April, and now there’s a real possibility that it might be the worst game of the week. Both teams have looked flat coming out of the gates, and that’s a huge understatement. This is the tipping point for both teams. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t regain his mojo in this game, it might not come back until it’s too late. And if the Saints don’t win this game, it’s a lost season already. I think the latter is much more likely. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack Show will take advantage of a porous Saints’ D and win by 10. W Packers 28, Saints 27

REDSKINS AT BUCS The problem with Tampa Bay is that they can’t seem to play a complete game. It’s not hard to imagine a world where the Bucs are 3-0 right now. They just needed to hold on to a two touchdown lead with one quarter to go for a win against the Giants. That didn’t work out. The Cowboys played dismally in their Week 3 matchup, but the Bucs couldn’t muster enough offense to pull out a win. All of this speaks to a team that is not ready for primetime yet. Their defense is capable of creating turnovers, so I’m looking for a heavy dose of the pistol offense and short screen patterns from the Redskins and RG3. After a tough loss at home against Cincy, look for the Redskins to tighten the leash on RG3 and get back to incorporating his Baylor offense into their own. I think that the simplified game plan will really help Griffin, and the Redskins will pull out a 27-21 win. W Redskins 24, Bucs 22

GIANTS AT EAGLES There is absolutely nothing to make me like the Eagles in this one. The same problems that existed last week are still gonna be there this week. Things certainly haven’t gotten better on the offensive line or on the ball control front. The Giants always play better on the road than they do at home, and Eli is performing like a top three quarterback. With Dallas Reynolds taking over for Jason Kelce at center, the Eagles are still going to be at a severe disadvantage in protection against a dominant Giants’ pass rush. Philadelphia talk radio hosts the world over were panning Demetress Bell for his lackluster performance last week, but I’m sure it’ll somehow get better when he’s facing the most dominant Giants’ pass rusher since Lawrence Taylor. I’ll take a blowout win for the Giants and at least 7 total sacks for the Giants’ D as the calls for Nick Foles get a little bit louder. L Eagles 19, Giants 17

BEARS AT COWBOYS It’s that time of year again. Yep, it’s time for Michael Irvin to cough up multiple pieces of sandpaper from his throat while discussing what’s wrong with the Cowboys. This pick just boils down to the fact that the Cowboys are a team that I do not trust under any circumstances. Chicago’s defense has been quietly awesome this year, ranking third in VOA at 29.5% better than the average defense. In the only game where they faced a potent offense (the Thursday Night game in Green Bay), they were absolutely fantastic. Jay Cutler and the fake field goal swung the momentum in the Packers’ favor, but their defense shut down Aaron Rodgers. Through three games, Chicago’s defense comes in third in terms of yards per drive allowed. Since the Bears are on the road and don’t fully trust their offensive line or Jay Cutler, expect this to be a bread and butter game. It’ll be tons of slants, curls, and other easy to complete routes that allow Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey (still on his bandwagon) to use their superior size to box the Cowboys’ corners off the ball. I’d expect a lot of blitzes in this game, because both teams are just short of saying “screw it” and importing Wayne Hunter, Guy Whimper, and Tony Mandarich to start. I’ll take the team with the better overall defense to come out on top. I’d go with the Bears in a close one, at least six combined turnovers, and at least twelve combined sacks. W Bears 34, Cowboys 18

                       WEEK 5: 10-1-12

               CARDINALS AND DOLPHINS AND KOLB, OH MY

So the undefeated Arizona Cardinals got a big scare at home this week courtesy of the Miami Dolphins. This was especially shocking because the Cardinals beat the Pats in Week two and easily disposed of the Eagles in Week three. The extremely stingy Cardinals’ D, which had only given up 11 points per game through Week 3, allowed Ryan Tannehill to compile over 400 passing yards on them, breaking Dan Marino’s rookie record. Brian Hartline had a few receiving yards here and there, you might say. More accurately, he had 253 of them. Through four quarters, the Dolphins held on to a 21-14 lead when Patrick Peterson returned a fumble 61 yards to inside the Dolphins’ 5. Kevin Kolb then proceeded to throw an interception in the red zone. However, the Cardinals got the ball back after a Miami three and out. Kolb then proceeded to lead a ten play game-tying drive that featured two fourth down conversions, the last of which was thrown to Andre Roberts for a 15 yard touchdown with 22 seconds remaining. The Cards would go on to win that game by a score of 24-21 in overtime to run their record to 4-0. They are currently in pole position to win the NFC West. Kolb was satisfactory, throwing for over 300 yards and amassing three touchdowns.

   Imagine this was the 2012 offseason and somebody told you that. Or what if somebody from the future told you, “Hey, man. Just a heads up: the Cardinals are gonna be 4-0 in a few months. Just thought you should know.”? What were the odds of that paragraph coming remotely true? This was an absolutely unbelievable game from an unbelievable team in an unbelievable season and I don’t even think it’s hyperbole that I’m using the word “unbelievable” this much. Because that’s exactly what I said to myself over and over as I watched this madness unfold. Has anything like this storyline ever been seen before? As this story unfolds, or won’t stop unfolding, I’m beginning to think the answer is “no”. Has a team this hopeless before the season ever turned around this quickly? Again, the answer is probably no. What about after losing their left tackle and facing a no-win quarterback competition? The answer is undoubtedly__. You can fill that one in yourself.

   I’m not going back on my prediction for the Arizona Cardinals. I still think they’re headed for a decline. After all, their average margin of victory since Week 9 of 2011 has been a whopping three points if you exclude the Eagles’ game. Also excluding their Week 3  beatdown of the Eagles, their biggest win since Week 9 of last year has been by six points. That’s not a misprint, six points. This team’s performance in close games, a statistic shown to be almost entirely random even for the best teams, has been nothing short of historic. But it can’t last. There’s absolutely no way. If you look at some historical data, teams with the worst records in close games usually improve the next year and teams with the best records in close games usually fall down to Earth. The Eagles have not necessarily performed better this year than they did in 2011, yet they’re 3-1 because they’ve gone 3-0 in close games. The 2011 Jets changed almost nothing about their roster after the 2010 season, yet they found themselves on the losing end of close games more often than they won them. Always watch out for the teams that have been winning a disproportionate amount of close games, because odds are they’re going to tumble back to Earth soon.

   The Cardinals currently rank 24th in passing offense, a mark worsted by their 30th ranked rushing attack. But that’s not a problem. After all, the Cards are winning with defense, right? Actually, they rank 21st in the league in passing yards allowed and 15th in rushing yards allowed. So how are they doing it? TURNOVERS!!!!! If you learn nothing else from this book, just learn that turnovers matter. And they’re +5 in the turnover margin right now. They got more right plays at right times this week, benefiting from an unprovoked Legedu Naanee fumble and a very much provoked Ryan Tannehill interception. Quite literally everything about this team screams regression.

In the chaos of the 4-0 Cards’ season, I should mention that the Dolphins played very well. Ryan Tannehill is far exceeding my expectations, once again proving that I shouldn’t be writing a football book. Reggie Bush has emerged as the legitimate top ten running back we all thought he’d be when he was picked by the Saints. Their run defense is tops in the league in terms of YPC allowed. They have allowed only 2.8 yards per carry. They should be 3-1, are 1-3, and I wouldn’t want any piece of them down the stretch if I were battling for a Wild Card spot. But on this day, they were overshadowed by the now 4-0 Arizona Cardinals. Unbelievable.

           PREDICTIONS GONE WRONG

I stand by everything I said in this book so far. Nothing from the pre-season was changed after the year started to make myself seem smarter. OK, not many things (just kidding). But lest you forget about them, let’s catch up on my terrible predictions. Ready? GO!

RG3 is going to be a bust: That’s looking like the Akili Smith of predictions right now. I’ve softened my viewpoint on RG3 a little bit; I no longer think of him as a potential bust. However, I do think it’s fair to still have injury concerns. I’ve heard numerous announcers say that RG3 needs to learn how to hook-slide and avoid taking hits, which is exactly what I saw from him when he played at Baylor. You know who RG3 reminds me a little bit of? A young Donovan McNabb. The mobility is there, the arm strength is there,  and both came from operating unconventional offenses in college. Right now, RG3 is on pace to become a rich man’s Donovan McNabb (not that there was anything wrong with McNabb’s career- he was one of my favorite non-Jets). But if he doesn’t start hook-sliding or getting more pocket savvy, his ACL is going to be crying uncle by his third season.

The Seahawks are going to win the NFC West: In my defense, the statistical community was screaming for a Niners’ regression and I brought into it. And if you read my Niners’ season preview, I don’t think it was an unreasonable conclusion to arrive at. Another sure indicator of a team taking a big step back is taking too big of a step forward the season before. It almost never fails. Now, it’s clear that Seattle does not have the talent to win the division. Time Out: Or do they? San Francisco is clearly the superior team, especially on the defensive side of the football. With that said, I can’t help but have a soft spot for these Seahawks. I love underrated defensive teams, and the Seahawks are just that. I’m not kidding when I tell you that I thought about dropping sixty bucks or more on a Richard Sherman jersey just so I could frame it in the basement and tell everybody how good Seattle’s secondary is. The one problem with the Seahawks is everything associated with their passing game. This was a classic case of me getting suckered in by the pre-season, something that I should have known better than to let happen. I still feel like Russell Wilson is going to be a good QB in this league because he’s athletic and has enough positive intangibles to make a pro scout jump for joy. However, the adjustment period is going to be longer than we all thought. Until Seattle gets some decent weapons and a half-decent pass blocking O-Line, Bill Simmons’ man crush is going to continue to have a difficult time. For this year, the 49ers look like the king of the NFC West and perhaps the entire NFC.

The Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West: Did I say that? No, that was some other guy in some other book you read recently. You know, that other guy. I don’t ever remember saying anything like that. Let’s just move on....... OK, you got me. I did write that. Since this is bumming me out, I’ll pick one more to replay. How about....

The Eagles will get one of the top two seeds and make it to the NFC Conference Championship: This one seems pretty likely if you just look at wins and losses, but not when you get a centimeter deep into the statistics. Don’t let the 3-1 record fool you, there are teams in the NFC that are much better equipped to make a deep run into the playoffs. The Giants have been there before and are better at playing from behind. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense are still a threat to drop 40 anytime. The Falcons look much improved from last year, and Matt Ryan could be a candidate for MVP. And the San Francisco 49ers are by far the best fundamentals team.That last point is the most important. All of these teams have mastered the fundamentals. Their head coaches never make their respective fans scream, “What is he doing!?” They all practice good tackling and are constantly winning the turnover/time of possession battles. I’m not sure that much in the way of mastering the fundamentals could be said about Philadelphia. Out of every potential playoff team in the NFC, I think the Eagles have the shakiest quarterback situation. Would you trust Michael Vick down 7 with three minutes left in San Francisco? Save my sanity and nod your head no. In the playoffs, it comes down to fundamentals more than anything else. Whichever team executes the game plan that they’ve employed for the last seventeen weeks better will win. It’s that simple. The Eagles don’t have a definitive game plan, as shown by their inconsistent and head scratching reluctance to use LeSean McCoy. They’re not at all difficult to force into playing someone else’s game. Now, there’s still time for the Eagles to figure out what their style of football is. And as much as I rag on Andy Reid, there is a reason he’s held on to a head coaching position in the toughest market in America for the last decade-plus. He knows how to make the most of his players. I’m not ruling this prediction wrong yet, but it’s on dangerous ground.

           

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 5

• Speaking of which, one prediction that I did get right was my call on J.J. Watt. I told you he would be one of the top defensive ends in football, and it’s happening. Of course, that’s like somebody saying back in 2004, “Hey, I think that LeBron James guy is gonna be good someday!” He leads the league with 7.5 sacks, and it on pace to set a record with 30. He’s probably going to rip the Jets’ new right tackle, Austin Howard, in half on Monday Night. The weird thing is, I won’t even care. Not only have I almost given up on the Jets’ season, but I just love everything about how this guy plays. Next time you watch the Texans, watch J.J. Watt and you’ll see what’s so special about him. He seems to bat passes down almost at his pleasure. He has a killer speed rush along with the requisite strength to bull rush his man. If the MVP award ever finds its way back onto the defensive side of the ball in the next ten years, it’ll be going to J.J. Watt.
• My vote for the MVP a quarter of the way into the season is unconventional, to say the least. I’m going with Robert Griffin III, and I’m doing it for one reason. Without him, the Redskins would be the worst team in the league. And now they’re 2-2 and in the thick of the playoff race so far. Is any of that possible without RG3? Does anybody mean more to their team right now? Take him out, and you remove the last playmaking presence on this entire team. He’s in the top five in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and total QBR. And his offensive line is terrible! Much like Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers, he uses his athleticism to get out of a bad pocket and his smarts and awareness to turn it into positive yardage. That’s an asset that only a select few teams have, and that asset  will turn into a deadly offensive weapon if he doesn’t lose his head on one of those hits he always ends up taking. I’m sure it’ll change, but he’s my vote for MVP and Rookie of the Year right now.

• As a Jets’ fan, I am now terrified of the Pats’ new The Guy. For future reference, “The Guy” is a catchall term that I use for any low-drafted/undrafted/nobody ever heard of him/ supposed to be washed up  guy that the Pats pick up and immediately turn into a terrifying weapon. This is reason number 168 that I hate the Patriots; it seems like every Joe Schmo that they pick up for a couple of spare footballs in free agency turns into a superstar right when the Pats need him to. Brady, Welker, Corey Dillon, Troy Brown, Danny Woodhead, and Deion Branch fall into that category. Now, there’s a new The Guy on the Patriots. His name is Brandon Bolden, and I have nightmares about the three touchdown game that he’s inevitably going to have against the Jets in three weeks. He’s an undrafted rookie from Ole Miss university that ran for 137 yards and a touchdown on sixteen carries against the Bills. I know that the Bills aren’t exactly the 86 Bears, but this is ridiculous. Stevan Ridley and Bolden? Do the Pats finally have a running game? I think I’m in hell right now.
• UPSET ALERT!!!!! Yep, this is the week the Cardinals fall off the bandwagon. I’m taking the Rams in an upset. I thought that the great regression wouldn’t happen until the tough part of the Cards’ schedule, but McKayla Maroney’s unimpressed face was out en force in the Goldstein household all throughout the Dolphins’ game. The Dolphins dominated them in every phase of that game, and it was due to a couple of dumb plays that the Cards won. I feel like every week, everybody loses their mind over some team that ends up disappointing. It happened to Denver in Week 2, it happened to San Francisco in Week 3, it almost happened to Atlanta in Week 4, and now it’s Zona’s turn. They’ve been due for some bad luck since the middle of last year. I’ll take the Rams by a score of 18-14. Six field goals for Greg Zuerlein? Yep. What can I say? I like the guy. W Rams 17, Cardinals 3

       WEEK 5 PICKS: 10/5/12

DOLPHINS AT BENGALS It turns out believing in Blaine Gabbert over Andy Dalton didn’t work out so well last week. Wow, who saw that one coming? Well, apparently everybody but me. I never claimed to learn from my own mistakes or follow my own rule about not picking stupid upsets just to try and look smart, so I’ll take Miami. I feel like this could be kind of a smart pick, though. Cincy is a very weak 3-1, with victories over the Jags, Browns, and Redskins. The combined DVOA of the teams that the Bengals have beaten? -55.2%. Ouch. The Dolphins’ big weakness is Ryan Tannehill until he definitively proves otherwise, and the Bengals don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that weakness. They come into this game ranked dead last in total DVOA at 23% worse than the average defense. It’s all gonna be on Andy Dalton in this one, and I’m not sure he can carry this team to a victory on his own. The Bengals are going to lose this game by ten points because of their defense’s inability to get off the field. W Dolphins 17, Bengals 13

PACKERS AT COLTS I have a good feeling about Aaron Rodgers this week. I really don’t know why; I just do. Hold on one second.

(Checks nfl.com)

Oh yeah, the Colts have allowed 8.1 yards per passing attempt allowed over the course of this year. That might have been it. I’ll take the Pack by two touchdowns. My thoughts go out to Chuck Pagano, who is currently battling leukemia. Here’s to hoping for a speedy recovery. L Colts 30, Packers 27

RAVENS AT CHIEFS Oh boy, are the Ravens worn out. After playing four grueling games in seventeen days, they’re headed for a collapse. This is a good team, but there’s only so much they can take. So now we all get to- wait, what’s this? A ten day rest and the chance to play quite possibly the worst team in the league? The Ravens will take that, please and thank you. Baltimore could win this by thirty or more as Matt Cassel pulls an Exit Sandman. W Ravens 9, Chiefs 6

BROWNS AT GIANTS Three of the first four early games are this terrible? Wow. On the one hand, this is going to make for a boring time slot between 1:00 pm and 4:00 pm on Sunday. On the other hand, it’s saving me loads of time because I don’t have to pretend to give them serious reviews. I’m taking the Giants by ten and saving myself the agony of analyzing the Cleveland Browns. W Giants 41, Browns 27

FALCONS AT REDSKINS About time! We’ve finally got a good one. I’ll take the Falcons. I can’t imagine how the Redskins’ defense could possibly stop Matt Ryan. I’ll take that Roddy White/ Julio Jones vs DeAngelo Hall matchup all day. I feel like there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for yards after the catch for one of these two guys because of Hall’s many tackling woes. Or as Primetime Sanders calls them, business decisions. And don’t even get me started on Tony Gonzalez vs DeJon Gomes over the middle. If we took Wayne Hunter and converted him to a tight end, I think I would like him in that matchup. RG3 is going to keep this game close, but there’s no way that a team as poor on defense as the Redskins are can step to the Falcons. I’ll go with a 33-21 win for Atlanta. W Falcons 24, Redskins 17

EAGLES AT STEELERS Pittsburgh’s bye week could not have come at a more perfect time. Both James Harrison and Troy Polamalu could be back for this game, and that makes a huge difference. The statistics and the tape show that the Steelers are most aggressive and effective when both of them are on the field. I feel like the loss to the Raiders gave them just the kick in the rear they need to start playing like an elite team again. And as you might have inferred from about 4,000 words ago, I don’t trust the Eagles. Not even a little bit. If Lawrence Tynes’ last second field goal attempt had been three yards longer or Ramses Barden didn’t blow up his defender for a holding call, the Eagles would have lost that game to the Giants and Philly sports talk radio would be going crazy. The Steelers are just a more stable team with better coaching and better QB play. I’ll take them by a touchdown. W Steelers 16, Eagles 14

SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS The key to this game is going to be the Seahawks’ ground game. This Panthers’ defense is very susceptible to the pass, as their last three games have shown. Pete Carroll is going to open more of the offense to Russell Wilson in this game to test guys like Charles Godfrey and Haruki Nakamura. However, this can only happen if the Seahawks establish the running game. Rollouts, play action, pump fakes, everything that can be used to make Wilson’s job easier depends on consistently getting four or five yards per carry. Fortunately for Seattle, the Panthers are surrendering rushing yards at a clip of 134.8 per game. I’m sure Seattle can establish the running game and win by four points on a big second half performance from Russell Simmons Wilson. W Seahawks 16, Panthers 12

BEARS AT JAGUARS The Bears defense has looked absolutely fantastic. Recently, Blaine Gabbert has looked..... not fantastic. I’ll take the Bears by two touchdowns. By the way, the next four weeks for the Bears go like this: Bye, home for Detroit on Monday Night Football, home for Carolina, and away for Tennessee. We could potentially be talking about the 7-1 Bears going into Week 10. W Bears 41, Jaguars 3

TITANS AT VIKINGS Minnesota could be the team that sneaks into the playoffs at 10-6. That win over the Lions last week was a textbook example of the kind of dumb victories that teams like this get. How many times are the Vikes going to get a kick and punt return touchdown in the same game again? Would zero be in the ballpark for that one? I feel like Minnesota is going to catch some breaks and maybe take the sixth seed. And one of those breaks is playing a Jake Locker-less Titans at home. I’ll go with Minnesota, 28-13. W Vikings 30, Titans 7

BILLS AT 49ERS I think this is gonna be a little bit closer than people think. I don’t think that this game will be a blowout; it’ll be fairly close for a half or even three quarters. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are going to present the threat of a long run on each and every play, and that’s something that the Niners only faced against the Vikings in 2012. However, I don’t think that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be able to make the throws he needs to make to take advantage of those opportunities because he’s a one dimensional quarterback. He has very little arm strength. The Niners’ two deep safeties will be free to roam within ten yards of the line and challenge his short passes because he eliminates a fair portion of the field purely through virtue of his presence. The Bills will only be able to rely on C.J. Spiller and the surgically reconstructed knee of Fred Jackson for so long, and their weakness is going to be exposed once they get down by seven or ten points. I’ll take the Niners, 24-14. W Niners 45, Bills 3

BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS The marquee game of Week 5 pits Tom Brady against Peyton Manning again. I noticed that Denver ran a lot of draw plays from the shotgun formation last week to draw the Raiders toward the center of the field. Then, Peyton Manning could stretch the field horizontally with slant and screen routes. The new Peyton Manning can no longer stretch the field vertically like he once could, so the Broncos have to find other ways to exploit defenses. Expect the Pats to take advantage of that and put their safeties in the box alot. They’re not going to let Peyton Manning dink and dunk his way to victory; he’s going to have to beat them deep like the old Manning would have. Meanwhile, the biggest area of concern for the Pats is the secondary. Devin McCourty versus anybody is a mismatch in favor of anybody. That whole unit is completely undersized and was shredded by Joe Flacco and briefly by Ryan Fitzpatrick. They’ll keep Denver in it right until the end, and the Pats have had more than a little trouble closing games dating back to last year’s Super Bowl. I’m going with a pick that’s totally not biased because I hate the Patriots, Denver 34-31. L Patriots 31, Broncos 21

CHARGERS AT SAINTS I’m taking the Saints to get off the griddle and pick up their first win. If I haven’t already articulated this, I’m not a fan of picking Chargers games. You just never know what you can expect from too many players on that team. I feel like the Saints have the personnel to spread the Chargers out. I can’t point to a single linebacker on that whole Charger D who would effectively cover Darren Sproles out of the backfield. And I certainly don’t have confidence in Drew Brees making a crucial mistake before Philip Rivers does, which is probably what needs to happen for the Chargers to win this game. This is going to be a high-scoring affair that is going to come down to a last minute drive. If that is the case, I’d rather have Brees leading that drive. I’ll go with the Saints, 41-38. W Saints 31, Chargers 24

TEXANS AT JETS The Texans could win this game by 30 or more points. This is quite possibly another blowout loss for the Jets. Who’s the Jets’ best offensive weapon right now? Holmes is done for the year with a Lisfranc injury. Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller both did not practice. Shonn Greene is still Shonn Greene. So without those guys, I’d say the best offensive option the Jets have is Wayne Chrebet. That’s right. Just call Wayne out of retirement and plug him in at the wide receiver position. It’s the same result they’ll get if Chaz Schilens starts in that spot, but they might be able to sell some more tickets. There is no conceivable way this Jets offense can even get ten first downs against the Bulls On Parade. The Texans are a complete team, and the Jets are a completely awful team. I’ll take the Texans, 41-10. I wish that were an exaggeration. W Texans 23, Jets 17