Weeks 16-17

                   WEEK 16

            LOGJAM IN THE NFC EAST

Because of the Giants’ loss and win by both the Cowboys and Redskins, there is now a three team logjam atop the East. The Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys are all tied for first at 8-6. In other words, every NFC East team is in position to win the division except the one that I picked. The Redskins and Cowboys can win the division simply by winning their last two games because they play each other in Dallas on the season’s last day. The Giants are going to need to win their final two and get a little bit of help. Let’s take a look at what each team has going for and against it should they make the playoffs.

REDSKINS PRO: They have RG3, one of the most terrifying quarterbacks to play against in recent memory and also one of the most mistake free rookies in the game’s history. Out of the three teams that are in the race, the Redskins might be the only one with a legitimate home field advantage. If you’re the Seahawks and you’re playing the NFC East champ in the first round on the road, Washington is the place that you want to avoid. Tony Romo in January and the better on the road Giants wouldn’t be nearly as scary. Mike Shanahan is a steady coach that isn’t afraid to take risks (like going for it on fourth down) or change his offense to suit RG3’s needs (like using the pistol formation). Since they have one of the best pure downhill rushers in the league (Alfred Morris), they could probably run a four minute drill better than the Cowboys or the Giants could. They’d also enter the playoffs with momentum, which is a sure sign of the playoff sleeper.

REDSKINS CON: They have RG3, a QB that might not be 100% healthy by the time Seattle’s pass rush comes calling. And with an offensive line that ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate, it’s virtually an assurance that Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons will spend a lot of time in the backfield. The Skins have a defense that is mediocre at best: I watched DeAngelo Hall get beaten time and time again by Anquan Boldin and other decent receivers. The deep pass is the NFL’s great equalizer, and it can be used to great effect against Washington. It also bears mentioning that Washington’s pass rush also ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate, which doesn’t bode well in a modern playoff atmosphere where almost every QB is at least competent. RG3’s best downfield weapon is Pierre Garcon: not bad, but certainly not on the level of a Dez Bryant or a Victor Cruz. Defenses know that they have to focus on RG3 and Alfred Morris. Stop those two guys, and the rest usually falls into place.

COWBOYS PRO: Tony Romo seems to be shedding his December stigma. He has played a crucial part in a road win over the Bengals and a home win over the Steelers. We’ve seen a smarter and more stable Romo make big plays over the stretch to guide Dallas to 8-6. It also appears that Dez Bryant is finally becoming a number one receiver. Each of his ten touchdown catches have come in the second half, a time where Dallas has had difficulties over the past couple of years. As the Giants demonstrated last year, pass rush is also another great playoff equalizer, and the Cowboys might just have the most athletically gifted pass rusher of the last decade (DeMarcus Ware). He has quietly amassed 11.5 sacks over the course of the season and is a threat to have a three sack game at any time. Dallas has ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate this season.

COWBOYS CON Dallas might be the only team that makes the playoffs with a totally unstable coach. Every Dallas fan covers their eyes when the game has under two minutes left and Jason Garrett is forced to manage his timeouts. For all of the money and effort that they spent on improving the secondary, most of the Football Outsiders statistics still say that they’re a middle of the road team when it comes to stopping the pass. And let’s not forget that the whole “Tony Romo chokes” stigma hasn’t been completely shed yet. Most Cowboys fans still expect the worst and often get it. I think that the Redskins would much rather play the Cowboys than the Giants in their decisive final game. It’s also not excessively difficult to make the Cowboys a one dimensional team. DeMarco Murray hasn’t been totally healthy and effective since Dallas played Baltimore in mid-October. Overall, nobody would be that nervous about their team playing the Cowboys in round one.

GIANTS PRO: Eli Manning turns into Joe Montana whenever the game is on the line. Out of every team in the playoffs, the Giants are probably the one that nobody wants to play simply because they have an uncanny knack for getting hot at the perfect times. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are probably two of the top ten wide receivers in the entire league if the playoffs version of Eli is throwing to them. New York also has two of the best pass rushers in the league, and Jason Pierre-Paul might be the most athletically gifted defensive player in the NFL. They’ve been in tight situations a million times before, have an established identity, and relish playing on the road. In other words, they’re the ideal postseason team.

GIANTS CON: The Redskins and Cowboys control their own destiny, but the Giants do not. They need help to win the division in the form of either a Redskins or Cowboys Week 16 loss. Last week’s 34-0 loss to Atlanta means that the Giants will have to pull off their “us against the world” and “nobody believes in us” routines from both 2007 and 2011 to find success again. The funny thing about those motivational tactics is that they’re hard to convincingly pull off when you just won the Super Bowl last season.They’re not sneaking up on anyone this year. If their pass rush doesn’t get rolling early and often, then opposing QBs will find plenty of opportunities to air it out against the Giants’ secondary. For instance, Jayron Hosley couldn’t cover Julio Jones one on one unless he were allowed to punch him in the face at the start of each play. Opposing QBs took note of Hosley and Prince Amukamara and will test each guy early and often. It’s still possible for the Giants to repeat, but it will be very difficult to say the least.

           

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 16

• Let the record show that there were a number of teams this week that totally failed to show up. Every year, you get a few teams that totally pack it in down the stretch. Kansas City was not only shut out by the Raiders, but couldn’t muster a first down until over two and a half quarters had passed. Tampa Bay couldn’t get a single point against the historically bad New Orleans Saints’ D. And don’t forget about the Lions, who went from 4-4 to 4-10 in pretty dramatic fashion against the Cardinals. Matt Stafford threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns to help the Cardinals, a team that fits the definition of “hopeless” word for word, win by a score of 38-10. In the Seattle-Buffalo game, Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch was inside the five yard line with only Da’Norris Searcy between him and the end zone. Searcy immediately dodged Lynch and extended his arm a little bit in order to give the appearance of an attempted tackle before Lynch walked into the end zone. It’s usually around Week 14 that lackadaisical effort in teams that have already been eliminated begin to show up. Gamble against these teams at all times.
• There was quite an interesting role reversal in the Steelers-Cowboys game. Ben Roethlisberger, the two time Super Bowl champion, was the one that ended up throwing the game sealing pick. That’s right, Mr. Clutch and not Mr. Choke threw the deciding interception. I’m not knocking Roethlisberger: Brandon Carr made a terrific break on the ball and showed excellent spatial awareness by not stepping out of bounds as he tightroped the sideline. I’m just pointing out that anyone is capable of making the crucial mistake. Had Tony Romo thrown that interception, talk radio and sports blogs would explode talking about how Romo choked again. But because Roethlisberger threw it, nobody seems to care. Aren’t all game-ending interceptions in crucial games created equal? It’s not fair to totally fault Roethlisberger for that interception. In fact, it’s probably more fair to just chalk it up as a great play by Carr. However, we all know what would have happened if Romo made that mistake instead of Roethlisberger.
• Adrian Peterson is now about 400 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s all-time rushing record. I’ve mentioned that he’s rebounding from multiple ligament tears? I have mentioned that, right? This guy is a physical specimen. Think Barry Sanders with a dash of Jerome Bettis in his prime, and you get AP. Defenses are loading the box with eight and nine guys on almost every single play, and he still finds a way to completely destroy everybody. That’s just unbelievable.
• Hey, remember when I thought that the Eagles would get to the NFC Conference Championship? That was a hoax. My little brother logged onto my computer and wrote the Eagles into that slot and I didn’t have time to change it. No, seriously. That’s what happened...... Alright, that’s not what happened. I don’t have a little brother and I totally would have went with that lie if I did have one. Such is the downside of being an only child: you can never blame things on a sibling. But I digress. Also, this book needs to end soon. I love football and everything, but the average teenager can only take so many days of writing the equivalent of an essay and a half before he tries to break the keyboard over his head. You know, not that I tried to do that or anything.
• I’m grabbing the Falcons and not looking back in the Saturday Night Game. After failing on a bunch of my upset picks this past week, I should probably start picking more conservatively this time around. I’m pretty sure that’s at least the second time in this book that I’ve sworn off heavy upset weeks, which once again proves that I’m not learning from my own mistakes. One of these days, I’m sure I’ll get the whole self-improvement thing down. Anyways, I’m taking Atlanta to beat the free-falling Lions before pulling the starters in Week 17 against Tampa.W Falcons 31, Lions 18

WEEK 16 PICKS

TITANS AT PACKERS I’m obviously going with Green Bay here. If we’re excluding the Jets game (a statistical outlier for obvious reasons), the Titans’ defense has allowed just over 29 points per game. That’s good for last in the league. Since the Football Outsiders site is down right now, I can’t check the newest DVOA rankings. However, I’d be willing to wager on the Titans still being in the bottom five even after the Jets essentially gifted them a win and a solid defensive performance. That’s not a defense that I’d have any sort of confidence in when going up against Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay can still claim the two seed and a first round bye, so they still have something to keep the starters in for. This is going to be a blowout win for Green Bay.W Packers 55, Titans 7

SAINTS AT COWBOYS Here’s how the last two weeks will play out for Dallas. They’ll control the tempo of the game against the Saints and force a few key turnovers. Jason Witten will catch at least ten passes for at least 120 yards. Tony Romo will remind everyone that the Saints’ defense sucks. DeMarco Murray or Felix Jones will probably have a solid five yards per carry. During the week, everybody will start gushing about how awesome Dallas looks while forgetting that the Saints defense is atrocious. There will be people that jump on the Felix Jones or DeMarco Murray bandwagon, even though we just went through the same up/down cycle with David Wilson just a week ago. Everybody will tout the Cowboys and pick them as favorites over the Redskins. And then a pissed off RG3 will shred them for 300 yards and two touchdowns. I’m not a Cowboys-hater, but that series of events is not out of line with what people expect from Dallas. I’m taking them over the Saints, but I need to see them beat Washington before I can even think about believing in them. L Saints 34, Cowboys 31 (OT)

COLTS AT CHIEFS If the Colts lose to the Chiefs, a team that couldn’t get a first down against the Raiders, then they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. The Houston game last week reminded me that I shouldn’t get carried away with the Colts, but it would probably be the most embarrassing loss of the year if the Chiefs come away with this one. Besides, there is no way that the Chuckstrong mantra and the feelgood first overall pick’s season can end against the Chiefs. I’ll take Indy by thirteen. W Colts 20, Chiefs 13

BILLS AT DOLPHINS Thank goodness that there are a lot of teams still in contention for a playoff spot so I don’t have to look at too many games like this one. I’m taking the Dolphins. W Dolphins 24, Bills 10

CHARGERS AT JETS Or this one. I’m taking the Chargers in the first game of the Greg McElroy era and the second to last game of the Norv Turner era. Norv will be missed by every team not located in San Diego. W Chargers 27, Jets 17

REDSKINS AT EAGLES I’m taking the Redskins here. The Eagles, much like the Chargers, probably just want this season to be over already. Everybody on the team knows that Andy Reid is going to be gone after next season and the team is going to be gutted before starting from scratch. The final two games before that realization comes to life are almost never pretty. If Kirk Cousins were starting this game, you could probably talk me into an upset because every rookie QB is bound to have his first crappy start sooner or later. But with RG3 presumably coming back from injury and the Skins riding a ton of momentum right now, there’s just no way I can take the Eagles in good conscience. Geez, I feel like I’ve written, “I can’t take the Eagles in good conscience” at least twice in this book. And at least twice in this book, it was the right move. Washington 35, Philly 20. W Redskins 27, Eagles 20

RAMS AT BUCS If this game were played just a week ago, it would have major Wild Card ramifications in the NFC. Now, it’s just a game between two par-for-the-course teams and the winner will probably have the privilege of finding themselves one game out of the sixth seed. Just like last year, the Bucs are coming apart at the seams in the second half of the season. They’ve lost their last four games and were just shut out by the Saints. For obvious reasons, I’m going to jump ship on Tampa Bay. (because they’re the Buccaneers! Get it? Thank you very much, you’re a great crowd. Wow, I really need to stop writing soon.) I’m taking St Louis on the road. W Rams 28, Bucs 13

RAIDERS AT PANTHERS Ewwwwwww. Panthers win by twenty and Cam Newton gets over 30 fantasy points. Having Cam Newton on your fantasy team is the only reason to care about this game beyond being a fan of either team and rooting for them to bottom out. I do not have Cam Newton on my fantasy team. If I did, then I wouldn’t have blown a thirty-five point lead to Liam in fantasy football. I suddenly feel the urge to drop-kick something, so let’s just move on. W Panthers 17, Raiders 6

BENGALS AT STEELERS Ladies and gentlemen, we could be seeing the first of a couple exciting “loser goes home” games. This is a scenario where the matchups are probably more important than the collective talent level on both teams. If you’re going by obvious metrics like “Dalton vs Roethlisberger” or “total talent on Steelers vs total talent on Bengals”, then you’d probably go with Pittsburgh here. But once again, we’re not totally sure if Roethlisberger is 100% back to normal yet. And Pittsburgh’s corners last week were absolutely dreadful, thus reinforcing my claim that Ike Taylor is one of the most underrated CBs in football. Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen just couldn’t physically match up to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. I can’t even imagine what they’re going to do about covering A.J. Green, only the second most athletic wideout in football. The Steelers’ corners wouldn’t be a problem if they could get a consistent pass rush going, but they rank 16th in total sacks this year. That’s the lowest they’ve ranked since 2005. This game might have more than playoff ramifications on the line: it could be the final three hours of the 2000s Steelers mini-dynasty that won two Super Bowls and made a third. Their front seven has been aging for years, there’s no answer at running back, and too many key guys are banged up to the point where they’re not going to be the same (Roethlisberger, Harrison, Mendenhall, Polamalu, etc). Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes and most recent dynasty will end this week. I’ll take Cincy by a score of 27-10 and I’ll take A.J. Green to have at least 150 receiving yards. W Bengals 13, Steelers 10

PATRIOTS AT JAGUARS The Pats have an outside chance at scoring 600 points. Going into the final two games, they have 506. They’d have to average 47 points per game to get there, but they have a little bit of help. They’re facing both members of the Terrible Florida Duo (Jacksonville AND Miami) in December. For almost any other team in football history, it’s out of the question. For the Pats, it has never been out of the question. Even some pre-season projections ranked their offense better than that of the 2007 Patriots. Could they get to that 37.5 points per game mark? I say that they can, and they’ll put themselves in range this week. It’s already in the Jags’ best interest to lose, so they might as well get crushed under the massive iron frame of the Patriot machine. I’m taking New England, 54-10. W Patriots 23, Jaguars 16

BROWNS AT BRONCOS My awesome mid-season prediction is still alive! Come on, that was a pretty good pick, right? My wrong/right ratio in this book has to be at least 3:1, so I feel like I’m aloud to celebrate when I get something right. (Spends twenty minutes knocking on every piece of wood in the house) OK, I’m back. I’m taking Denver by twenty. W Broncos 34, Browns 12

VIKINGS AT TEXANS I’m not going to be tempted to take an upset here even though I had my trademark all-caps “upset pick” in this spot about twenty seconds ago. How many games can Adrian Peterson single-handedly win for the Vikings? I’m not sure, but probably not this one. If the Vikings ever get in a position where Christian Ponder has to throw the football consistently, they’re screwed. It’s like they can only sustain their style of play if they’re winning by more than a touchdown. Their entire strategy revolves around giving the ball to Adrian Peterson and hoping something good happens. AP is definitely a transcendent running back, but the Texans are just too good to be beaten by such a one-dimensional offense. The way to beat Houston is by attacking them both down the field and in the slot. Needless to say, that’s not something the Vikings can do. I’ll take Houston, 27-19. L Vikings 23, Texans 6

BEARS AT CARDINALS I could almost be talked into a Cardinals’ upset here, but I’m a little bit gun-shy on that front after whiffing on so many of them last week. I really think that the Arizona defense can causes some problems for Jay Cutler. But picking a Cards upset would also mean having faith in Ryan Lindley against a good defense, which would mean that I’d shame myself into never picking a game again and would have to stop writing the book. That’s not something I want to do to myself. I’ll take Chicago. W Bears 28, Cardinals 13

GIANTS AT RAVENS See, the Giants are doing it again. Their 23-10 loss to Washington in Week 15 of the 2011 season suckered us all out, and then the Giants went on their championship run. They’re desperate for people to not believe in them. The problem here is that nobody believes in Baltimore either. This feels like a game where a bunch of people are going to say, “I don’t have confidence in either of these teams, so I’m gonna grab the Ravens because they’re at home and Ray Lewis might be coming back.” But I’m not sold on Baltimore’s secondary and I’m definitely not sold on Jim Caldwell as the new offensive coordinator, at least not as an emergency stopgap late in the season. This seems like the type of game where Eli is going to go off for 300 yards and 3 TDs when everyone least expects it. I’m taking the Giants here. L Ravens 33, Giants 14

NINERS AT SEAHAWKS We have some more game of the year potential with this one. It’s not so important for playoff purposes-the Niners virtually assured themselves the NFC West title with a win in New England last week. However, we finally get to see if the Seahawks are truly one of the best teams in the league. They hung with the Niners for most of their early season game before losing 13-6, and that was on the road with an inexperienced Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings and first in DVOA at home. As the Patriots demonstrated with their split against the Niners and Texans, it’s extremely difficult to beat two great teams in a row. There’s just too much wear and tear on players’ bodies by this point in the season. Plus, this game means infinitely more to the Seahawks than it does to the Niners. San Fran has just about clinched everything that it could possibly clinch at this point. Even if they lose to Seattle, they have the division so long as they beat Arizona. They’re the heavy favorite to get the two seed and a first round bye, but the one seed has already been clinched by the Falcons. This game is more for pride than anything else. To the Seahawks, this game is a chance to take down the team that they’ve been looking up at this entire season on their home field. This is a chance to show the league that they belong in that Super Bowl discussion. The NIners have already had their statement games and proved everything that they possibly could up to this point. They’ve flown to New England, beaten the Pats, and will now have to fly all the way back to the West Coast to play in the harshest stadium that the NFL has to offer. I feel like the Niners are a better team, but the Seahawks will get the win because of the intangible factors. But unless something really convincing happens in this game, I’d still take the Niners in the playoffs should they meet again. W Seahawks 42, Niners 13

                      

WEEK 17

           STEELERS-BENGALS: NOW THAT WAS FOOTBALL

The sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC was up for grabs in Heinz Field. Two AFC North rivals went at it for four quarters. Andy Dalton and his Cincinnati Bengals sought to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs and claim the sixth seed for themselves. Pittsburgh fought desperately to hang on to their crumbling dynasty for one more year. Both teams unleashed the hounds on defense. Zone blitz followed overload blitz followed Geno Atkins as each team repeatedly punched the other square in the face. Needless to say, this is a game that both your father, your grandfather, and Chris Berman would approve of. Both teams fought to the bitter end as the ball constantly switched field positions. Even after turnovers, the sputtering offenses would advance the ball a few yards and then punt. No, this game was meant for the defenses to win or lose. You know how Chris Collinsworth or some announcer that played the game over twenty years ago will say things like “back in my day, etc, etc?” This is the type of game that they’re talking about. On the 40th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception, the game was played in a way that Franco Harris would recognize, but the final result was probably not what he had in mind.

   Pittsburgh fought tooth and nail to knock off the Bengals and put themselves in prime position for a playoff berth. They were the Pittsburgh Steelers, and a team like that never goes quietly. Pittsburgh brought the full fury of their pass rush to bear on Andy Dalton, hitting him eight times and recording a sack on six of those hits. To borrow Michael Lombardi’s vernacular, the Steelers adjusted Andy Dalton’s eye level. The trained eye could clearly see that he looked at the line of scrimmage in front of him more than he looked downfield because he didn’t know where the next guy would come from. Dick LeBeau’s defensive schemes are all designed with the purpose of toying with a quarterback’s brain. He was one of the pioneers of the zone blitz and is widely known for Pittsburgh’s “11 Angry Men” defense, or what we now call an amoeba defense where there are either one or no down linemen. Pittsburgh’s defense employed all of those tactics to great effect against Andy Dalton. Cortez Allen executed on two huge turnovers that briefly tipped momentum in Pittsburgh’s favor in a game where such momentum was excessively hard to come by. Yes, Pittsburgh ended up losing this game because of a number of factors, not the least of which was the offensive line. And yes, Cincinnati made the crucial plays at the end where Pittsburgh couldn’t. But the Steelers put forth a valiant effort and even in defeat, there’s something to be said for that. Even though they lost, they went out like Steelers.

The Cincinnati Bengals have been in existence for 44 years. Previous to this season, they had never been to the playoffs in consecutive seasons. There have been franchises that have won Super Bowls in consecutive seasons, yet the Bengals haven’t even managed back-to-back postseason trips. Evidently, somebody forgot to inform Geno Atkins. It’s very rare for a defensive tackle to get his name called as much as Atkins does, but one must remember that there are very few defensive tackles like Geno Atkins. This guy is an absolute force, someone that can push the right guard into the running back on one play and casually shove him aside and get to the QB on the next. You’d be hard-pressed to find a defensive tackle anywhere in the NFL’s history that can play both the one and two gap schemes as well as Atkins can. It’s hard to overstate the value of a good pass rushing DT like Atkins because of his proximity to the QB. Players like him and Vince Wilfork cause the entire pocket to cave in on the QB from the front, whereas defensive ends must take a less direct route. Atkins demonstrated that the best way to Ben Roethlisberger was a straight line. And if that line just happened to pass through Steelers’ guard Ramon Foster, then so be it. Atkins finished the day with 2.5 sacks, six total tackles, and we’ll never know how much Pittsburgh’s playbook was compromised because they had to either run away from him or commit another blocker to him.

Geno and the rest of the Bengals’ D was out en force and provided the two big plays that Cincy needed. With the score deadlocked at 0-0 late in the first quarter, Ben Roethlisberger was surviving on the short passing game, much like he had done against Dallas. He tried to force one over the middle to Heath Miller, who thought he had found a small hole in the zone coverage. Not a good idea. Leon Hall broke in front of Miller much like Brandon Carr broke in front of Mike Wallace at the end of last week’s Cowboys game. The ball fell right into Hall’s arms, who took it seventeen yards for a touchdown. Safety Reggie Nelson provided the other big play, intercepting a Roethlisberger overthrow near midfield to give the Bengals the ball back with 14 seconds left. Throughout this whole game, Ben Roethlisberger seemed to have trouble throwing the intermediate and deep ball (his sixty yard touchdown to Antonio Brown notwithstanding), and the Bengals made him pay for it.

However, the real star of this day was A.J. Green. We’ve all been annoyed by some talking head or another saying, “BIG TIME players make BIG TIME plays in BIG TIME games. And let me tell you, Coach/Madman/Teej, (Insert Player here) is a BIG TIME player.” Well, we just found out that A.J. Green is a big time player. The Bengals were on the Pittsburgh 44 and at least seven yards out of field goal range. All day long, Dalton been trying to get the ball to A.J. Green behind the Steelers’ D. He was targeted 18 times. And all day long, the Steelers committed a corner and a safety to ensuring that would not happen. They weren’t so fortunate this time. Dalton lofted a pass towards Green, who was running a corner post route out of a trips bunch formation against Keenan Lewis. Green got a step’s separation on Lewis and made a leaping grab, just barely getting both feet in. He finished the day with ten catches for 116 yards, but none were more important than that 21 yard reception. It set up Josh Brown for a 43 yard field goal with eight seconds left, which he knocked through to put Cincy up for good, 13-10. Time ticked down on Pittsburgh’s season, and Cincinnati made it to the playoffs. For Pittsburgh, the loss represents the end of the 2012 season. But For A.J. Green and the Cincinnati Bengals, that game and that catch was just as immaculate as any in their history.

           PLAYOFF ROLES REVISITED: FIRST ROUND

Back in Chapter 14 (which was about three minutes ago for the reader and about a month ago for the writer), I examined the playoff roles. Time Out: That section is in the book.  Each postseason has the one and dones, the borderline teams, the emotional teams, etc. Now that our playoff picture has been largely determined, it’s time to apply those roles to the 2012 first round playoff teams. Hopefully this will provide an accurate picture of where each team was at the end of the 2012 season, and maybe you’ll take away a few things to watch out for in the future. Let’s start with....

THE EMOTIONAL TEAM: This is the easiest one in the book. Could it possibly be anyone other than the Indianapolis Colts? Chuck Pagano, who should probably win coach of the year purely out of respect, will rejoin the team for their Week 17 game after spending the entire season battling leukemia. You think that might give the Colts a little bit of a boost heading into their first playoff game? Everybody knows that the Ravens are going to be the Vegas favorites and Chuck Pagano is going to deliver an inspiring speech beforehand. Those two things are almost givens. Consequently, that’s also a perfect formula for a road upset. The Colts have Chuck Pagano, a young, streaky team, and a rookie QB in what seems to be the year of rookie QBs. Things almost couldn’t get more perfect for Indy. Well, unless....

THE HOME TEAM THAT EVERYONE COUNTS OUT: Baltimore-Indy is going to be the type of game where the media will hold an enormous amount of sway. Can’t you see Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs watching Tom Jackson or Keyshawn Johnson say, “I like Indy for the upset here” and just getting madder and madder? I can, and it’s terrifying even in the safety of a home that’s two states away from M&T Bank Stadium. And that brings me to another point. The Ravens have a legitimate home field advantage. Baltimore is 6-2 at home and Joe Flacco averages 8.3 yards per pass at home as opposed to 5.9 on the road. The crowd is one of the loudest in the league, trailing only the Qwest Field crowds and a good Arrowhead crowd. And I’m supposed to just write off all of that after seeing both Denver and Seattle pull off huge upsets at home in the last two years? The Colts may very well win, but the Ravens are not a team to be taken lightly.

PUT US OUT OF OUR MISERY: This generally covers any mediocre team that got a good record because of a few close wins/an easy schedule. They’re usually a sixth seed that has the misfortune of going on the road and playing a much better team. Usually, they have a QB that isn’t necessarily Super Bowl Caliber. Think of the 06 Jets or 2011’s Bengals. Or, you know, this year’s Bengals. Their schedule included two games with Cleveland and a game with all of the following: Oakland, Kansas City, Philly, Jacksonville, and Miami. Cincy has two quality wins, one over the Redskins in RG3’s third game and one against the Giants in the second week of an eight week stretch that saw New York go 2-6. Granted, they are an underappreciated team with a phenomenal pass rush that leads the league in adjusted sack rate. But I’m supposed to take the Bengals for a playoff win in New England? I don’t like their chances. And on the NFC side of things, you could talk me into Christian Ponder or Jay Cutler going into San Francisco and emerging with all of their limbs intact. More than that might be a stretch.

OK, PEOPLE, CALM DOWN: And then there’s the team that everyone gets a little bit too excited about. I’m going to take this opportunity to pre-emptively turn to whoever wins Cowboys-Redskins this week. If Dallas wins, then every pregame show will make it a fireable offense to not sprain an arm from patting the Cowboys on the back. If Michael Irvin’s arm does not come back with ligament damage from patting Tony Romo on the back, then he’s fired. No, seriously, it’s in his contract and everything. Same goes for the Redskins: if they win, then nobody will remember that they were 3-6 at one point. Or that they’ve gone 4-0 in close games in their six game winning streak. Everybody will be too caught up in the RG3 vs Luck thing to even give Seattle the time of day. Not to take anything away from those teams, but they shouldn’t be favored to beat Seattle. And speaking of...

THE CONTENDERS Balance, continuity, and the capacity to take care of business are the hallmarks of contenders. Our three first round contenders: San Fran, New England, and Seattle, meet those criteria. They’re three of the twenty best teams that DVOA has ever measured. They all have solid identities and have repeatedly come up with huge wins over the course of the season. And once you cut through all of the half-contenders, these three teams are left standing. Not only are they the three best teams in round one, they might be the three best teams in the entire playoffs depending on how you feel about Denver. These are teams that can and will take care of business in Round One.

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 17

• I think that the Seahawks might have taken the “most impressive victory” crown away from San Fran over New England with their 42-13 victory over the Niners. That was a one-sided destruction of a team that some said was the best in football. It’s part of the most well executed three consecutive games that the NFL has seen this year. Seattle has now scored over 40 points in each of those games and has forced 13 turnovers. That’s almost more than the 2011 Steelers forced for the whole season. Seattle also has 1,305 yards of total offense, which is just under what the Jets have had in their last five games. Russell WIlson has had a quarterback rating of over 100 in six of his last seven games and has accounted for nine touchdowns in the three game winning streak (six passing, three rushing). They’ve been unbelievably impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the Super Bowl. But at the same time, I do have to question whether they can beat a great team on the road. They’ve had some bad road losses to Detroit and Miami where the secondary allowed game winning drives through the air. But for now, Seattle might be the best team in football.
• It’s amazing how much of a 180 I’ve done on the Houston Texans. I thought that they were going to be this year’s dominant team, but that’s just not the case. If you’ve watched any of their last eight games and you knew nothing about the NFL, you probably couldn’t tell that they might end up earning a first round bye. They haven’t even looked remotely convincing since Week 7 against Baltimore. All three of their losses have come by two touchdowns or more, the worst of which came this past Sunday against Minnesota. Everybody already knew that the Texans would struggle against elite passing teams: both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady took them to the woodshed. But a 17 point loss at home against Christian Ponder? That’s awful. For a team whose entire identity is focused around time of possession and tough defense, it’s alarming that they were bested in both time of possession and total yards by Minnesota.  Matt Schaub was even benched at the end of the game for T.J. Yates. If Houston is down by more than 10 points, a loss is almost assured. It might be safe to put the Texans in the “peaked too soon” category, right up there with the Bears.
• In my two QB fantasy league (the one where I lost to Liam), my opponent in the consolation match is Ray. He started both Tony Romo (26-43, 416 yards, 4 TDs) and Drew Brees (37-53, 446 yards, 3 TDs). I have no words.
• Merry retroactive Christmas, everyone.

      

WEEK 17 PICKS   

JETS AT BILLS See, this is what I hate about the last two weeks of the season. There are so many throwaway games where both teams are out of the playoffs or somebody already clinched everything and is resting their starters. Hence, you get games like this. They make for quick picks, but not quality investments of time. I’m taking the Jets to win here because it would be just like the Jets to win this meaningless game and bump themselves down three spots in the draft order. I’m taking New York solely on that principle. L Bills 28, Jets 9

JAGUARS AT TITANS If it weren’t for this book, then games like this would be quickly forgotten and completely lost to history. But since this book exists, the twenty-five people who bought it get to cherish this game in their memory forever. Or just forget about it right after you read this. You know what? That’s probably the best thing for you to do. No need to pollute innocent minds with graphic images of bad football. I’ll take Jacksonville. L Titans 38, Jaguars 20

BUCS AT FALCONS This is the aforementioned second type of game that I hate in Week 17. Atlanta has already clinched the number one seed and thus has no need to risk injury to their starters. We might see them play for a quarter or two, but I’d imagine that the subs will come in quickly. I’m still going with Atlanta because there’s no way I can pick the Bucs in good conscience after their performance in the last three weeks. New The Football Volumes Drinking Game: Take a shot every time you see the phrase, “in good conscience” or, “I can’t feel good about....” or any other variation thereof. Don’t actually try that. I’ll take Atlanta. L Bucs 22, Falcons 17

PANTHERS AT SAINTS I’m just trying to get all of the games that are of no consequence out of the way early. I’ll take New Orleans to win and break even at 8-8.  L Panthers 44, Saints 38

RAVENS AT BENGALS This one looks like a significant game, but it really isn’t. The Bengals have the sixth seed locked up and the Ravens are essentially locked in at the four. So this game is more for pride than anything else. Assuming that both teams play their starters the whole way through, I like Cincy for this one. Ray Lewis won’t be back for this game, and I feel like that’s an indication of the Ravens’ game plan. If there ever were a “don’t show too much of your hand” type game, this will be it. I’d expect tons of base packages and bland defensive formations, which will create easier reads for Andy Dalton and allow A.J. Green some room to work downfield. Besides, they need to lose this game for my, “Colts become the popular upset pick and the Ravens become pissed off about it” scenario to happen. The only thing that can counteract the Chuck Pagano/Andrew Luck story is, to borrow a Bill Simmons moniker, a “nobody believes in us” attitude for Baltimore. That can only really happen if they lose to Cincy this week. I’m taking the Bengals over the Ravens, 27-17. W Bengals 23, Ravens 17

TEXANS AT COLTS And here’s the second prerequisite for my Round 1 scenario to happen. The Colts have Chuck Pagano back, thus officially making this a “win one for coach” type game. I obviously don’t mean to trivialize his cancer and I’m glad he’s alright, but emotion carries enormous weight when it comes to how a football team performs. I can already see Andrew Luck throwing for 400 yards, leading a last minute drive, and then handing the game ball to a sobbing Chuck Pagano while everybody books first class seats on the Indianapolis Colts bandwagon. And what better team to do it against than the Texans? Their performance has really fallen off in recent weeks, their secondary is extremely vulnerable against the deep pass, and they’re just about hopeless if they can’t stay in the game early. Oh, and their “this is the first time a certain rookie QB has seen us” advantage is now gone. Sounds like a team that’s waiting to be beaten by Andrew Luck, provided that their pass rush doesn’t totally destroy the Colts’ O-Line. I think the Colts will get a convincing win and then everybody will write the Ravens off for their Wild Card matchup. One step at a time. Oh, and please buy a Chuckstrong t-shirt. All of the proceeds go to the IU Simon Cancer Center. Pick one up for twenty bucks, donate to a great cause, feel good about yourself, and take the rest of the day off. W Colts 28, Texans 16

CHIEFS AT BRONCOS OK, so the Broncos could potentially get the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs depending on whether the Texans win or not. All that stands in their way is the 2-13 Kansas City Chiefs. Take that at face value. Broncos win big. W Broncos 38, Chiefs 3

BROWNS AT STEELERS Zzzzzzzzzz.... oh wait, that’s right. I have to make one more pick before bedtime. Uh, I’ll take Pittsburgh because (sound of head clunking on the keyboard) Zzzzzzz..... W Steelers 24, Browns 10

DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS The Pats are at home in December and the only thing standing between them and the chance for a first round bye is the Dolphins. I sense a beatdown in the making. New England by at least 14. W Patriots 28, Dolphins 0

RAIDERS AT CHARGERS The only reason this game is of any consequence is because of...... wait for it.... wait a little bit longer..... NOOOOORRRRV!!! That’s right, it’s Norv Turner’s last game in San Diego. And it would be just like the Norv era Chargers to win this meaningless game and push their draft pick back a few spots. I’ll take the Chargers. W Chargers 24, Raiders 21

BEARS AT LIONS You know how I feel about the Bears already: there’s ample evidence to show that they were merely a slightly above average team that masqueraded as a great one for a little while. But the Lions have just been too sloppy with the football recently. They’re at -12 in the give/take ratio department and average 1.81 turnovers per game. You know who ranks first in the league in takeaways and averages 2.5 of them per game? Yep, that’s Chicago. In light of these facts, I can’t justify picking the Lions (Bottoms up, everybody! Just kidding. Kind of.) I’ll take Chicago. W Bears 26, Lions 24

EAGLES AT GIANTS The Giants are trying to fool us all into not believing in them. I might be going down with the ship here, but I’ll continue to believe in the Giants when it’s December until the bitter end. I’m taking New York to win, but miss the playoffs. They would need to win and have Dallas, Chicago, and Minnesota lose to squeak in at the 6 seed. Not likely. W Giants 42, Eagles 7

PACKERS AT VIKINGS Finally, a game with far-reaching implications for both teams. They’re few and far between this week, to say the least. You know what? Screw it, I’m riding Minnesota on this one. Adrian Peterson carved up the Packers to the tune of 210 rushing yards and ten yards per carry the last time these two teams played. Everybody also forgets that Green Bay’s pass protection stinks: they have an 8.4% adjusted sack rate, which is good for 29th in the league. Something tells me that Aaron Rodgers will be getting very well acquainted with Jared Allen, who has quietly had eleven sacks this season. If I have to go down with the Christian Ponder ship, then that’s what I’ll do. In fact, I might as well be watching this game while the violinists from The Titanic play in the background. And anytime a football pick and the violinists from The Titanic are co-mingled, it’s probably not a good thing. Whatever, I’m going with the Vikings. W Vikings 37, Packers 34

RAMS AT SEAHAWKS The Seahawks are at home and have an outside chance at winning the division. End of story. I’ll take Seattle. W Seahawks 20, Rams 13

CARDINALS AT NINERS Just for old times’ sake.... AND THEY’RE FREEEEEE fallin now they’re, free fallin, FREE FAALLLLLIN!!!! Oh come on, it’s the last week of the season. Also, the Niners are at home with a chance to wrap up the division against Ryan Lindley. If I really have to explain my pick further, then this book is probably not for you. W Niners 27, Cardinals 13

COWBOYS AT REDSKINS And here is our second game with far-reaching implications for both teams. The winner is in the playoffs and the loser is out of the playoffs. I feel like this game is going to play out the only way it can: a good old-fashioned shootout. Both secondaries are below average and both QBs have been playing spectacularly this month. It’s going to come down to whoever has the ball last or whoever can force a big turnover. “Who has the ball last” is pretty much a crapshoot, and both teams aren’t particularly stellar in the “force a big turnover” department. So it might just come down to who can hold a lead better. Somebody is probably going to have to execute a four minute drill, and the Redskins are so much better equipped to run something like that than the Cowboys are. Like I said, DeMarco Murray hasn’t looked like himself since that Ravens game back in October. That means the Cowboys would most likely have to turn to Tony Romo inside of five or six minutes to pick up a few first downs. And we all know how “Romo+4th Quarter+December” usually turns out. I still think he gets a bad rap, but he has failed to win big divisional games in the Winter. Look no further than Week 17 of 2011 or Week 17 of 2008 for proof. I want to believe in Romo, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to wait until he delivers in the clutch before I put stock in him. I’m taking the Redskins, but I don’t necessarily feel good about it. W Redskins 28, Cowboys 18

And with that, the NFL Regular Season is over. Now, we can get on to the last and best part of this book: the NFL Playoffs. Wait, what!? This book is too long and you’re ready to put it aside to read The Hunger Games!? Come on. Just stick with me for a little while longer.