2012-2013 NFL Retroactive Preview

    7/26/12: THE RETROACTIVE PREVIEW: 32 TEAMS IN 32 DAYS

We are T-42 days away from the start of the football season as I write this, and almost everything has been settled. Unless Brett Favre is involved, there are almost no completely team-altering transactions that happen after training camp starts. Once a team locks into their philosophy for the year in early June (or in a team coached by Norv Turner’s case, Week 15), it severely limits the number of players that a team can work with in free agency. Unless they’re bench players, bringing in a player that doesn’t match the system or can’t learn the system will result in a breakdown of their role. Bring in a right tackle that’s an angle blocker in a zone blocking scheme, and he has to learn a style of play that he’s unfamiliar with. If he can’t learn the system, then most runs going to his side are going to be on the ground before the play can develop. That might mean an extra blocker has to be committed to his side, thus taking away either another lineman or a valuable RB or TE. This will result in a far less efficient offense.

So now that all major external personnel moves are most likely done, it’s time to make some predictions. For me, this section exists so I can have both a written record of my predictions before the season as well as a rough plan to gamble on football with my friends by. For you, it exists for the former reason of the previous sentence as well as to have a section in this book where you can say “Who is this idiot that thought the Giants were going to miss the playoffs?” Time-Out: I GOT THIS ONE RIGHT! Hold a parade! I’ll explain that a little later. Think of this section like you’re picking up an old copy of SI and reading the preview section. Actually, treat this whole book kinda like that, except imagine SI was a snarky high school kid who’s writing this stuff at one in the morning. Anyways, enjoy a look back at the pre-season picks. Keep in mind that these power rankings are with regards to record from 32-13 and playoff rankings from 12-1. So if there’s a 10-6 team that misses the playoffs and a 9-7 team who makes it, the 9-7 team will be ranked ahead of the 10-6 team.

32-27:THE CROWN TURDS OF THE NFL

          32: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jaguars are certainly not candidates to be the worst team in football history. They’re a scrappy team that can steal a win or two at home from decent opponents on a good day. And their brief period of blacking out significant portions of Jags’ games has mercifully ended. Unfortunately, that’s pretty much where the positives run dry for this unbelievably lackadaisical Jacksonville squad. Their only two real assets are newly drafted wide receiver Justin Blackmon and running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Fortunately for their opponents, the Jags saved defensive coordinators around the league a little bit of trouble and rendered them insignificant before they even step on the field.

Let me preface this section by saying that I believed in Blaine Gabbert. That’s another thing that can be added to the list of “reasons why I  probably shouldn’t be the one to write this book.” But I started turning against him after his second or third game, and it’s a little mystifying that the Jags aren’t doing the same. As long as the Jacksonville Jaguars are under the delusion that Blaine Gabbert can be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL, they won’t be going anywhere in the divisional race or the playoffs. Somehow, Gabbert managed to top even Mark Sanchez’s abominable rookie year. He threw for 230 less yards and completed 3% less of his passes for an average of over a full yard less per completion. Now, I’m not usually a fan of advanced stats, mostly because I’m lazy and can’t be bothered to understand all of them. Yet I’ve found a lot of them to be useful and I’m going to try to incorporate them more, so allow me to start with this one. Football Outsiders created a statistic called DVOA, which is a percentage that measures a player or a unit’s value over or under an average player or unit’s. TIME OUT: I’ll be using this stat a lot throughout the book, so make sure you understand it. There will be a quiz later. OK, time in. Since this percentage is based on scoring, a negative DVOA is good for a defensive player and bad for offensive player, and a positive DVOA is just the opposite. Blaine Gabbert’s DVOA? -46.5 percent. He is ranked at almost fifty percent worse than an average quarterback. Football Outsiders, the guys who make the statistical almanac at the beginning of each season, have Gabbert’s season ranked as the fifth worst in league history since they started measuring advanced stats in 1991. And you think Justin Blackmon will make a difference in this offense with that guy throwing to him? To make matters worse, as of the day I’m writing this, Maurice Jones-Drew has been placed on the reserve list of the Jags’ roster as he holds out for a new contract. The Jags have told numerous sources that they do not plan on giving Jones-Drew a new contract, and the odds that he comes back to play a significant portion of training camp are not great at this point.

Fortunately for the Jags, their defense should at least be competent this year after ranking in the top ten of both passing and rushing yards allowed in the 2011 season. The Jags nearly had a trio of 100 tackle guys on their roster last year as Paul Posluszny (119 tackles), Daryl Smith (107 tackles), and safety Dawan Landry (97 tackles) lead a very physical defense. A significant portion of the Jags’ pass rush comes from defensive end Jeremy Mincey, who recorded 8 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in 2011.

So if they can get a game where Blaine Gabbert plays semi-competently, Maurice Jones-Drew breaks out with a two TD game, Justin Blackmon catches a touchdown or two, and the defense comes up with a big play, they can beat a few decent teams. But that ain’t happening more than once or twice this year. They should already start giving serious thought to who they’ll take with the first pick of the 2013 draft.

31: CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Colt McCoy bandwagon tragically exploded. It was extremely sad for all who were involved. Personally, I never understood the wide-ranging appeal of a guy who went 2-6 in his rookie year. Was he something to be hopeful about? Absolutely. But he went from a pedestrian rookie quarterback to the Browns’ savior after one fluky win against the New England Patriots in 2010. Once Peyton Hillis fell victim to the infamous Madden Curse (I think it’s illegal to write a Browns’ preview without mentioning this), McCoy lost a valuable running back and blocker. Suddenly, nobody overplayed the run against the Browns anymore because they weren’t afraid of the big, bad Montario Hardesty. That will probably change with Trent Richardson in the backfield. However, the Browns, much like the Jags, helped to nullify their own guy by putting in Brandon Weeden. He’s a 28 year old rookie, he ran a collegiate offense that only vaguely resembles an NFL offense, he’s a 28 year old rookie, has some accuracy issues, and have I mentioned that he’s a 28 year old rookie? Here are two quotes taken from the Milwaukee Sentinel and Weeden’s scouts.com page, both from scouts that saw him at various points throughout the season and during workouts. Please keep in mind that these quotes are not from a few scouts, they’re the ones that best represent the majority of scouts’ opinions.

"The problem with him is he's older," one scout said. "He's like that guy (Chris Weinke) that came out of Florida State a few years ago.” (I’m not saying that a Chris Weinke comparison is a death sentence for your NFL career but...... yeah it’s kind of a death sentence).

Scored 27 on the Wonderlic, but scouts say he isn't a quick study. Finished with passer rating of 107.5. "Not a very strong arm," a third scout said. "Not very good in the pocket. Average intelligence. He's just a guy." (Let’s see, that leaves clipboard holding and chest bumps as his only above average skills. Sounds great!)

Here’s a novel idea; why not stick with McCoy for one more year? Even if Brandon Weeden is the next Peyton Manning (and the odds of that are about a million to one), by the time he learns the offense and adjusts to the mental speed of the game, he’ll be in his thirties. West Coast offenses are notorious for confusing young quarterbacks who are unused to all the verbiage and mannerisms that aren’t in a regular offense (for instance, calling out every receivers’ route by name instead of number coding them). It’s entirely possible that McCoy might just need an extra offseason to learn it. Instead, they’re gambling on a 28 year old to be their franchise QB.

It would appear that there are no completely useless teams this year. Almost every team has some kind of above average asset, and there aren’t any teams that could remotely approach the 07 Dolphins or George Seifert’s 2001 Panthers as the worst team of all time. And despite how it might seem, the Browns do have some pieces in place to aid their young offense. An elite left tackle might be one of the most crucial elements to a young quarterback’s success, and few are better than the Browns’ Joe Thomas. The Browns also have some talent in their relatively easy to teach 4-3 defense, specifically in their back seven. Joe Haden is one of the most underrated corners in football, and linebacker Scott Fujita is still a playmaker with a knowledge of the defense. However, as long as Brandon Weeden is at QB, the Browns will never move out of the AFC North’s cellar.

                                      30: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Even though I’m as big of an Andrew Luck fan as the next guy, the Colts won’t be doing anything of significance this year. They have Andrew Luck and quite literally nobody else that would even be passable starters on playoff teams. Seriously, put the Colts’ and Giants’ rosters right next to each other, and then tell me if there’s a single guy you’d swap from the Colts to the Giants to make the Giants better. Maybe you’d put Coby Fleener at tight end, but that’s just about it. My point is, even if Andrew Luck turns out to be a cross between Aaron Rodgers, Tim Tebow, and Bruce Willis, he’ll be extremely lucky to pull off a 6-10 record. Even though the Colts did everything right in the draft, namely building up the offense before the defense, it’ll take at least a few years to clean up the gigantic mess that was left behind after Peyton got injured.

Get ready folks, because I’m about to name two big 2012 fantasy football sleepers, information that will bear no usefulness whatsoever by the time you read it. Screw it, let’s make them my 2013 fantasy football sleepers as well, and you’ll hopefully read this before your fantasy draft. Oh, and if you’re reading this book during your fantasy draft..... PUT THE BOOK DOWN AND PAY ATTENTION!!!! OK, getting back on topic, my two big fantasy sleepers for next year are Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener.

Why not? Everybody thinks that Reggie Wayne had an awful year, when in reality it wasn’t completely terrible.

2011 Wayne: 16 Games Played, 75 Receptions, 960 Rec Yards, 4 Touchdowns

You’re telling me that you wouldn’t take a guy like that with, say, an 8th or 9th round pick? That wouldn’t be a pretty decent guy to have on the bench or at the flex position? And assuming that Andrew Luck lives up to his potential, Wayne’s numbers could get another bump back up, thus making him the only 34 year old receiver in the league with moderate upside. As for Fleener, it’s a proven fact that young quarterbacks rely heavily on their tight ends. The tight ends give them a big target to throw to, usually run short and intermediary underneath routes that can give a rookie QB a sense of security, and are often the quarterback’s hot route against the blitz (along with the slot receiver). Plus, the Colts have nobody else that can consistently score in the red zone, so Fleener will probably see a lot of action. Who’s gonna be their go to scorer down there, Donald Brown? But best of all, Fleener and Luck played together at Stanford. One of the things that makes a great quarterback great is attention to detail. And no detail is more important than his receivers. Guys who play together start to develop a rhythm. Things like knowing the exact number of seconds your receiver will take to run a particular route go a long way towards succeeding in the NFL. The three years Luck and Fleener spent together in Stanford’s pro style offense are going to help at least a little bit. Time Out: I went one for two on that paragraph.

Here’s another reason that their fantasy numbers are going to go up: they’ll be constantly playing from behind. The 2011 Colts’ “defense” ranked 25th in yards allowed, 28th in points allowed, and 29th in rushing yards allowed. And the Colts haven’t had a truly successful defensive first round pick since Bob Sanders in 2004, not to mention the fact that they haven’t drafted a player who would go on to make a Pro Bowl since Joseph Addai and Antoine Bethea in 2006. Even Addai was a one hit wonder who is now off the team. So no matter how good Andrew Luck is, the Colts are truly starting from scratch. They’ll gain momentum rapidly in the coming years, but certainly not enough for the playoffs in 2012 or 2013.

       29: ST LOUIS RAMS

After being only one game away from winning the NFC West in 2010, the Rams fell back to a pitiful 2-14 record in 2011. This was mostly the fault of a horrifyingly bad offensive line. You want to talk about bad O-Line stats, just look at these.

55 Sacks Allowed (Most in NFL), Power Run Blocking 48% success rate (2nd to last in the NFL), Adjusted Sack Rate 9.6% (3rd most in the NFL).

Yikes. It’s no wonder that Sam Bradford only saw ten games of action in 2012, he was playing behind five human revolving doors. And with most of his offensive line returning and exactly zero significant draft picks invested in bolstering that line, I wouldn’t expect that problem to go away. Not only does Bradford still have to play behind this offensive line, but the lockout could not have happened at a worse time. The offseason after the quarterback’s rookie year is often the stretch in which a QB progresses the most from a mental standpoint, and not having access to a playbook or a coaching staff during that timeframe delayed or even destroyed his development in ways that we might not even know about. It doesn’t help that Bradford’s receiving corps is average at best. Steve Smith was a number four receiver with the Eagles last year, and now he’s making a leap to number one, when at best he’s a quality number two. The only help Bradford’s really ever had was Steven Jackson, and he’s thirty years old (29 as of the day I’m writing this). Look at what happened to Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Eddie George, and Marshall Faulk when they were in their low thirties. It’s a proven fact that running backs burn out quicker than other positions. Add in Steven Jackson’s injury history, and it won’t be long before he breaks down as well. What you have left is an offense banking on some young guys (Sam Bradford, Austin Pettis, and Isaiah Pead) to rapidly develop so that it might be passable within a few years.

However, the defensive side of the ball looks a lot better for the Rams. The transition to a new defensive scheme under veteran head coach Jeff Fisher should be an easy switch for the Rams, who have had to change schemes more than a few times in the past few years. New defensive tackle Michael Brockers also played in a 4-3 defense at LSU that was just about the closest thing you could get to an NFL 4-3 scheme, so it won’t take much for him to break into the Rams’ D. That 4-3 alignment will perfectly showcase the talents of Chris Long and Robert Quinn, two explosive and athletic pass rushing defensive ends. Long quietly had a breakout season last year with thirteen sacks and will look to follow that up with another great performance this year. The double teams and attention that must be committed to Long will open up opportunities for Quinn, the young defensive end out of North Carolina. His NFL Scouting report describes him as a, “physical specimen who has the size, strength, and speed to be a great defensive end”. Quinn also posted a 34.0 in the vertical jump, tied for highest at his position. Simply put, Quinn’s lower body explosiveness and his edge rushing speed will allow him to be a star in a sneaky good Rams defense. They won’t be going to the playoffs until their offensive talent catches up to that of their defense, but don’t assume that they’re helpless. With multiple high draft picks in the coming years and some assets on the defensive side of the ball, the Rams might be a contender sometime soon. Yet, like other teams in this section, “sometime soon” does not mean 2012 or 2013.

28: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Even with all the upgrades made to the offense and another year under the belt of Josh Freeman, a severely underperforming defense and the toughest division in football will continue to hinder the Tampa Bay Bucs. In all fairness to Tampa Bay, 28th in the league might be a little bit harsh and it’s certainly a couple spots lower than a lot of other power rankings have them. Then again, I have much less confidence in their defense than most other people out there. Warren Sapp is probably watching them with tears in his eyes as we speak (and they’re not tears of joy). Check back in the NFL Draft Trades section for some relevant Bucs’ defensive statistics and their lineup for this year, and know that they have not gotten better whatsoever for the 2012 season. Gerald McCoy will be coming back from his torn bicep injury, but that only elevates the Bucs’ defense from abysmal to bad. Mark Barron, although not the guy the Bucs should have taken, was nevertheless a solid pick who should greatly improve a front seven that was absolutely gashed all of last year (again, see draft trades section for stats on that one. And I know that while Barron is a safety and technically not in the front seven, his greatest strength by far is tackling and run defense. This is according to his scouting report). But even with a retooled run defense, the secondary will need absolutely huge contributions from Barron, Aqib Talib, and Ronde Barber, who can now be seen in an antiques store. Even if (deep breath).... Gerald McCoy comes back from injury, Da’Quan Bowers comes back from multiple injuries, Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib defy every indication and become solid contributors, Mark Barron is Ed Reed 2.0, no major injuries are suffered whatsoever, and one or two non-standouts step up to make some big plays (exhale), the Bucs defense would only be slightly above average. And the odds of all that happening are not great.

Like I mentioned before, there are no truly useless teams in the NFL this year. Everybody has some quality players. The twenties in these power rankings are like picks in the twenties of the NBA Draft. With late picks in the NBA draft, you get half-players. You know, guys with the body to play basketball but not the mind or vice versa. It’s the same thing with the NFL this year. The Bucs are a half team that actually looks pretty intriguing on offense.  The Bucks did manage to pick up Carl Nicks in free agency to help with their blocking, which should keep quarterback Josh Freeman protected. I, for one, am still on the Josh Freeman bandwagon, and I feel like he’s going to make a comeback this year. What I said about the lockout impeding Sam Bradford’s development also applies to Josh Freeman. It didn’t help that his top three receivers (Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, and Dezmon Briscoe before he left town), were all young guys that were essentially developing along with Freeman. That has a lot of advantages, but one of the major disadvantages is that if a lockout happens, it stops their development as well. Receivers have a lot more autonomy than one might think with respect to reading coverages and picking their routes based on that. I highly doubt that in such an abbreviated training camp, Freeman and those receivers were on the same page in 2011. Now that they had a full slate of OTAs, minicamps, and training camps, the receiving corps should get a much needed boost. And you can’t argue with the results that bringing Vincent Jackson in will yield. He’s just happy that he got paid the big bucks by a team not named the San Diego Chargers, and I think that his play will reflect that. And even though Doug Martin might not have been the best possible pick for the Bucs, he will definitely help a running game that the Bucs didn’t even try to get started (finishing dead last in rushing attempts by a healthy margin). But even with a resurgent offense, the Bucs should consider anything above 7-9 as a moral victory. Their defense is still at least a year away.

       27: MIAMI DOLPHINS

After going 0 for their first seven games, the Dolphins went on an impressive 6-3 stretch to close out the season. I’ve gotta give the Dolphins a lot of credit for not tanking their season in hopes of getting Andrew Luck in the draft. It looked like the Dolphins had the inside track for him after the first half of the season, but they banded together in the face of internal and external criticism to become the token “team with a bad record that nobody wants to play” over the homestretch of 2011.

First of all, I have mixed emotions about Joe Philbin switching the offense to a West Coast attack. On the one hand, it fits the Dolphins’ running backs and receivers perfectly. Miami does not have a star wideout. Or, you know, even a competent wideout. If the Dolphins want to be any kind of threat to opposing defenses, they’re going to have to spread the defense out and advance the ball in chunks of five or six yards. Plus, the West Coast Offense promotes the use of halfbacks in the passing game, which plays right in the Dolphins’ hands since both Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas are speedy tailbacks that can also serve as receiving threats. The biggest strength this offense has is its ability to stretch the field horizontally with two dual-threat backs, so choosing a system that would never give the opponent a reprieve from having to cover those backs was a good choice. The Dolphins will also undergo a change from an angle blocking scheme, which relies on power and downhill running, to a zone blocking scheme, which relies on speed and running back vision. This also plays to the strengths of Miami’s Bush-Thomas time sharing backfield. It would seem that Miami is handling the transition from the Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams power backfield to the Bush-Thomas speed backfield very well.

On the other hand, Miami has two principal weaknesses in its offense that will keep it from being any more than mediocre. Those two weaknesses are the lack of a quarterback and the lack of decent wide receivers. First of all, any time Davonne Bess is your number one wide receiver, you’re gonna have a bad season. There’s just no way around it. Second of all, if your quarterback competition is between David Garrard, Matt Moore, and Ryan Tannehill, then you might as well try to call Vinny Testaverde out of retirement and start him instead. Time Out: You will not believe how many dated football references I can put in one book. Try me. To be honest, I can’t necessarily blame the Dolphins for taking Tannehill in the draft. After all, they needed a quarterback and he was the best one available, which should tell you a lot about the quarterback market after Luck and RG3 this year. Tannehill is going to be thrown for a serious loop when he tries to learn the verbiage of a West Coast offense while having played 17 games at QB in his life. If the Dolphins want to give him any chance of developing, they’ll start Moore or Garrard in 2012 and possibly 2013 as well.

  

Believe it or not, the Miami defense isn’t half bad. The sixth rated defense in points allowed boasts a front seven featuring the likes of Cameron Wake (8.5 sacks), Karlos Dansby (103 tackles), and 2010 first round pick Jared Odrick (6 sacks). And although the defense will miss longtime standouts Jason Taylor and Yeremiah Bell (Taylor retired and Bell left for the Jets), the Dolphins are still more than physical enough without them. However, the real question marks lie in the secondary. The Dolphins’ corners like to gamble. Number one corner Vontae Davis is only 5 feet 11 inches and is at a huge disadvantage against taller wide receivers, but he makes up for that disadvantage by disguising his coverage and trying to jump shorter routes. Time Out: Davis was traded to the Colts about a month after I wrote this. However, should that fail, the Dolphins really don’t have an answer for good passing attacks, as shown by Tom Brady’s 500+ yard decimation of them in Week 1 of last 2011. A sneaky tough schedule and the lack of anything resembling an answer at quarterback will relegate the Dolphins to the AFC Cellar once again.

           

  THE WORST PLACE IN SPORTS (26-23)

26: OAKLAND RAIDERS

The worst place to be in a professional sports league is that spot between the middle and the very bottom. Obviously, the ideal place to be is contending for a championship or at least a playoff spot. If you can’t do that, then it’s actually better to be as terrible as possible so you can get a high draft pick and the potential to turn things around soon (otherwise known as bottoming out.) Being average isn’t great, but it also means that you’re not that far away from being a good team and can probably contend with only a few upgrades. To find the spot where you absolutely do not want your team to be- consistently mediocre and a long way to go before the top or the bottom- look no further than the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders aren’t necessarily a bad team, but they’re far from a good one. They’re the only team that I can think of that has absolutely no reliable above average players. Darren McFadden is the only one that I can think of, and that’s if his foot injury heals correctly. And seeing as how LaDanian Tomlinson was permanently hampered by a similar injury, I’m not confident in the fact that McFadden can come back. Even worse, the Raiders’ hands are tied, handcuffed, and being trampled on by the salary cap. They have about a million dollars’ worth of room under the cap. This is the second lowest amount of cap space available in the league and just barely legal. So you can forget about Oakland making any big trades or signing free agents anytime soon. At least the Raiders might have gotten a future franchise player in their first round pick..... oh, wait they didn’t have one. Well, the Raiders might have gotten a steal in the second round, where they moved up to take..... whoops, they didn’t have a second round pick either. Both of those picks were packaged as part of a deal to rescue Carson Palmer from Cincinnati. While Carson Palmer might be relieved to no longer play under one of the worst owners in sports, he walked into a situation that’s not much better. Sure, the Raiders’ offense is sufficient. It ranked just outside the top 10 in passing yards and 7th in rushing yards. Had Darren McFadden not gotten injured, it might have been more. However, the Raiders no longer have the services of solid backup Michael Bush, the guy who amassed a large fraction of their all-purpose yards in 2011. So when McFadden breaks down, and I’m predicting that he will at some point, the Raiders can alternate Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones off the bench. Sounds encouraging. The only thing the Raiders really have going for them is a slightly above average passing game with what can only be described as an average receiving corps, which is led by Darrius Heyward-Bey, a pedestrian number one receiver that might be worth a mid-round pickup in fantasy drafts this year. The Raiders’ receiving corps of Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, Denarius Moore, and Juron Criner has great depth, but nothing else about it is remarkable. You know, kinda like the Raiders.

The Raider defense forced 26 turnovers in 2011 and is fairly opportunistic. This, however, does not come close to making up for their many shortcomings. The Raiders ranked 29th in yards allowed, 29th in total points allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 27th in passing yards allowed per game. Football Outsiders pegged the Raiders defense as 10% worse than average, also 27th in the league. The Raiders had exactly one player on their entire roster (safety Tyvon Branch) who recorded more than 100 tackles in 2011. To make matters worse, one of the only above average players on the whole team, Stanford Routt, exited stage right in free agency. Therefore, the Raiders have no choice but to put their corner positions in the hands of Shawntae Spencer (disappointment in San Francisco) and Ronald Bartell (disappointment and injury risk in St Louis).

It all boils down to the fact that everybody else got better and the Raiders stayed the same. The Chiefs are getting Jamaal Charles back, addied Peyton Hillis, and have a relatively easy schedule. With the addition of Peyton Manning, the Broncos are going to be a threat this year. If Philip Rivers can get back on track, maybe the Chargers can take the division. Oakland’s 2012 team is slightly worse than its 2011 counterpart because of the absences of Michael Bush and Stanford Routt, and they’re not going to measure up to the rest of the AFC West with that kind of roster. My prediction for them is 6-10 and the AFC West’s cellar.

       25: ARIZONA CARDINALS

Kevin Kolb disappointed in his first year as QB, leading the Cardinals to a 1-6 start and straight into the NFC West gutter. And since the entire NFC West is something of a gutter, that’s saying a lot. Time Out: That last sentence was really interesting given the events of the 2012-2013 season. The Cards were able to rebound in the second half of the season, taking advantage of one of the easiest stretch runs in the league to finish 8-8. Despite Kolb’s below average first season, the Cardinals quietly field a decent offense that can give an unprepared defense a little bit of trouble. New rookie receiver Michael Floyd is going to provide a great alternative when Larry Fitzgerald sees constant double teams. He’s a tall and physical option that can take advantage of some size mismatches with opposing corners. However, Floyd will most likely take a backseat to the established star, Fitzgerald. While I feel terrible that Fitzgerald is handcuffed to whatever crappy QB the Cardinals are trotting out, it’s easy to forget that he had a pretty good year. Time Out: If only I knew how utterly dog excrement-like the Cards’ QB situation would become…. He had over 1,400 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, so it wasn’t like Kolb murdered his career in a Jake Delhomme-Steve Smith kind of way. He has the physical tools necessary to succeed no matter who is quarterback is. He’s 6-3 and can catch more types of passes than any receiver besides Calvin Johnson. What really sets him apart is his ability to catch passes in traffic and his 34 inch wingspan, which would undoubtedly make Jay Bilas salivate if he covered football. In Pat Kirwan’s book Take Your Eyes Off the Ball, Bill Cowher was quoted as saying that it doesn’t matter if Fitzgerald is covered: he’s always open three feet over his head. And that’s essential, because the offense centers around him and a resurgent running back by the name of Beanie Wells. Even though Wells revived his career from the NFL grave, he still needs to produce consistently if he’s going to be the Cardinals’ feature back. He averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in only seven out of sixteen games last year, and his two best games were against the notoriously poor rush defenses of the Giants and the Rams. Still, considering the fact that everyone wrote him off as a bust, it was definitely a good season for Wells. This year, he’ll be able to take advantage of Michael Floyd’s fantastic outside run blocking skills and hopefully get a few more solid runs per game. If Kolb can improve on his accuracy a little bit and the backfield of Wells and LaRod Stephens-Howling can make one or two big plays on a game to game basis, then this offense could surprise some people this year. It’s not an elite offense or even a particularly frightening one, but as Herm Edwards would say, “WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!!”

The problem with the Cardinals, and a lot of teams down in this section, is that they don’t have an identity. They have an offense that might take a step forward this season, but by no means passes for an elite squad. There’s really not much to say about the Cardinal defense. It’s a pedestrian defense filled with one or two above average guys. Patrick Peterson might be known for his breathtaking punt return skills, but he could be ready for a breakout season on defense as his ball skills improve. And if the fact that he received the third most passes thrown his way among CBs in 2011 is any indication for this year, he’ll have no shortage of interception chances. Calais Campbell is an above average defensive lineman who had 8 sacks in 2011 and 10 passes defended, a rarity for an edge rusher like him. And really, that’s it. Unless Sam Acho has a breakout year or Darnell Dockett can return to his 2007 form when he recorded nine sacks, the rest of the Cardinals’ D is average. A difficult out of division schedule and the emergence of the Niners and Seahawks in their own division makes anything past 7-9 for the Cardinals a pretty tough sell.

       24: WASHINGTON REDSKINS

After executing a blockbuster deal to grab Robert Griffin III with the second pick in the draft, we should start to see the Redskins offense expand vertically this year. RG3 has a lot of excellent tools at his disposal, one of which is incredible arm strength. Of course, my big upset pick for the 2012 season is that RG3 isn’t going to have a good year, but I also misjudged every single QB in the rookie class of 2011, so take that prediction with about five giant salt shakers. Also, provided he lives up to the hype, RG3 is set to become a great fantasy football quarterback. Never underestimate QBs that can run as well as throw the ball for fantasy purposes. And while I’m on the topic of Redskins’ quarterbacks, I have to say that I find the selection of Michigan State quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fourth round of the draft more than a little confusing. Did they really hate Rex Grossman that much? I get the fact that nobody would ever want to start RG Pick Six again but with all the other needs that the Redskins have, I’m not so sure that Kirk Cousins was the right pick there. Then again, if RG3 turns into an injury risk like I expect him to be, then Cousins might prove to be valuable insurance. Second year running back Roy Helu will accompany Griffin in the Redskins’ backfield. Helu might be primed for a breakout year after closing out 2011 with three 100 yard rushing performances in his last five games. He is primarily a downhill runner with limited speed and agility, but he’ll get plenty of chances to utilize the power aspect of his running with Griffin there to stretch opposing defenses out both horizontally and vertically. I think that if either Tim Hightower (assuming he’s OK from offseason knee surgery) or second year back Evan Royster can step up and take some of the load off of Helu, then it’ll extend his career by a few years since he’s not taking contact on every single play. The Skins also have a lot of different options for things they can do with their RBs. If they need to score in the red zone, they can just have Roy Helu jam it inside. If they see a blitz and they’re in a two back formation with Helu and Royster, they can split Royster out wide and use him as a hot route against the blitz and have Helu do a chip block on his blitzer (a chip block is when you don’t try to get a sustained block going, but instead just hit the blitzer to slow him down and then release into the flat). Speaking of receivers, the Redskins have a lot of depth at that position. Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon, Leonard Hankerson (another one of my fantasy football sleepers for 2012), Dezmon Briscoe, Josh Morgan; wow, that’s a five man deep receiving corps. I can’t think of another team in the league with five perfectly viable and proven wide receivers. This offense obviously isn’t going to blow anyone away unless RG3 can match Cam Newton’s performance in 2011, but it’s pretty solid and full of fantasy football sleepers nevertheless.

The Washington Redskins have a defense that’s kind of like the Cardinals' defense, only a little better. It’s very run of the mill. However, I feel like the defense and the offense both possess some of the pieces required to make a playoff run in 2013. Nobody can deny that both Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are playmakers. They’re both fantastic picks that should pay dividends in the years to come for Washington. Provided that London Fletcher can keep playing at a high level, the Redskins defense won’t be too bad even if Fletcher fails to match his 166 tackle total from 2011. The Redskins are now relieved of their next two first round picks and their next second round pick, so they better hope the pieces they have are enough to at least elevate them to the level of a playoff contender. They’ll make progress in 2012, but they won’t approach the playoffs. Their success or lack thereof after that will hinge first and foremost on RG3, but also on how long Fletcher can contribute to the defense, whether Roy Helu breaks out or not, whether they can get one wide receiver to elevate his game and become the leading guy, and whether any of the other teams in the division decline. For now, I don’t foresee anything more than 8-8, and I’d put them at either 6-10 or 7-9. But if my prediction on RG3 is wrong and he turns out to be a star, then the future finally looks pretty bright for the Washington Redskins.

       23: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

A lot of other power rankings have the Vikings several slots lower than this, but I put them this high because I believe in Christian Ponder. Timeout: Oh my god, what kind of blasphemous book have I written? He showed good mobility in 2011 and his aptitude for going through his progressions is above what I expected from him. He has a penchant for making some mistakes and forcing throws when there’s nothing there, as shown by his 1:1 TD/INT ratio. However, I think that with a full offseason to learn the system and grow into his role as a starter, he’ll come out of the gates much improved from the 2011 season. He’s got a long way to go before being the franchise QB that the Vikings want him to be, but I feel like he’s headed in the right direction. The main question for the Vikes’ offense this year will be if Adrian Peterson can come back from a major injury suffered in 2011 as well as an offseason arrest. Peterson has been an all-star running back so far for the Vikings, rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of his first four seasons and falling short in 2011 because of the aforementioned injury suffered in November against the Raiders and then a severe re-agitation of that injury later in the season against Washington. To not have him back would be a huge blow to their offensive production. If he can’t come back, then the RB role falls to backup Toby Gerhart, who was very good in limited action last year. Gerhart averaged 4.9 yards per carry in 109 rushing attempts, a higher average than Adrian Peterson. Of course, Peterson logged 4.7 yards per carry in just under double the attempts, but it does speak to the fact that the Vikings would actually be in pretty decent shape with Gerhart as their new feature back. If Peterson isn’t himself this year, the Vikings shouldn’t hesitate turning to Gerhart as a viable option. I also can’t stress enough how much I love the Vikings’ pick of Matt Kalil. A lot of young quarterbacks take beatings behind terrible offensive lines early in their careers and are never the same (Read: David Carr), and I feel like the Vikes ensured that won’t happen to Ponder. Getting Charlie Johnson out of that left tackle spot and replacing him with Kalil was the right move and his contract will pay for itself in all the injuries that Ponder won’t get because of it. One position where the Vikings are more than a little light is wide receiver, where an unhappy with his contract version of Percy Harvin returns as Ponder’s number one option.

The premier playmaker on the Vikings' defense is all world defensive end Jared Allen, who nearly broke Michael Strahan’s single season sacks record by racking up 22 sacks throughout 2011. He’s an absolutely dominant defensive end that can beat tackles with bull rushes, speed rushes, swims, spins, or any combination thereof. He’s a one man nightmare for opposing offenses, and a player of his caliber only comes around once every few years. The Vikes’ run defense is respectable, with tackling monster Chad Greenway (154 tackles, third most in the NFL) and linebackers E.J. and Erin Henderson (13 tackles for loss between them) anchoring a stout front seven. But once you start looking at the Vikings’ secondary, things aren’t nearly as rosy anymore. The Minnesota secondary gave up 34 passing touchdowns, the most in the league. They also surrendered 8.1 yards per pass, the third worst mark in the league. A lot of that has to do with cornerback Antoine Winfield’s inability to stay healthy. He only played five games in 2011 and will reportedly see reduced playing time to prevent another severe injury along the lines of the season ending broken collarbone that we saw last year. The Vikings must rely on rookie Harrison Smith to keep the secondary from falling apart, especially in a division that requires the Vikes to face off against the merciless passing attacks of the Packers and Lions. Even though I really like what I saw from Christian Ponder and I feel like he’ll make big strides forward, this Minnesota team is two years and a secondary away from contending for a Wild Card spot. My prediction for them is 6-10.

       WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR (22-17)

       22: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

If you think about the predictions at the beginning of every NFL season for the last decade, has anyone consistently fallen short of expectations more than the San Diego Chargers have? Sports Illustrated’s Super Bowl pick last year was Chargers vs Falcons, which ended up working out really well. In 2010, the Chargers finished 9-7 despite ranking number one in total offense and total defense. Even when they didn’t disappoint (13-3 in 2009,  14-2 in 2006, and 12-4 in 2004), they ended up eventually disappointing anyways with early playoff exits (Nate Kaeding missed field goals, conservative offenses, Marty Schottenheimer, more Nate Kaeding missed field goals, more Marty Schottenheimer).

The Chargers look pretty lackluster this year, to be honest. I feel like everybody is overvaluing their offense for no apparent reason. For instance:

Everybody Says: Phillip Rivers is due for a big year. He’s better than his 2011 stats.

I Say: Rivers lost his number one target, Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates is on his last leg minus a foot after he tore his plantar fascia. The Charger offense is founded upon the fact that Rivers is going through his progressions downfield to front. Watch his eyes the next time you see him throw and you’ll see them look way downfield the instant he gets the ball. Now that there’s nobody there as a legitimate deep threat, looking for the longball on every play is going to be a disaster.

Everybody Says: Ryan Matthews is finally going to break out this year

I Say: First of all, this isn’t necessarily something that everybody says. However, I saw enough fantasy football previews and online writers predicting a big year for Ryan Matthews that it felt like everybody said it. And once again, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that this year will be any different injury-wise for Matthews. If he stays healthy, then he’s absolutely one of the top ten running backs in the NFL as of August 8th, 2012. But that’s IF HE STAYS HEALTHY. How is this season different than all the others? Well, there is one difference. This time, he’s injured before the season even starts. Matthews was involved in a minor car crash and suffered a slight elbow injury. The day afterwards, he told the San Diego Union-Tribune that it “felt like I played four full games when I woke up."And he’s played zero games so far. In the repurposed words of Andy Bernard, if I had to reduce Matthews’ chances of not getting injured this year to a percentage, I would give him a none percent chance.

Everybody Says: Well, what about Robert Meachem?

I Say: What about him? He was a number two receiver in New Orleans beside Marques Colston, so nobody ever pressed him or routinely committed more than one guy to stopping him. Plus, he had Drew Brees as his QB in the most passing friendly offense in the league, which really inflated his numbers. He’s a very good possession receiver that benefits from having an elite X receiver beside him (an X receiver is just another way of saying a number one receiver). He no longer has that safety net, and I feel like his production is going to suffer because of it.

The Charger defense is average. There’s really not a lot going on with it. Eric Weddle leads the team with 7 interceptions and Antwan Barnes recorded 11 sacks in 2011. Other than that, it’s just an average defense. The Chargers finished at -7 in the turnover ratio department, and there’s really no reason that should change this year. For the Chargers to really have a shot at making the playoffs this year they need a lot of the following to happen.

A: Nobody in the division exceeds expectations and Peyton Manning doesn’t comes close to his pre-injury levels.(Not Likely)

B: Melvin Ingram lives up to the hype and I cringe every time he records a sack knowing that THE JETS SHOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM!!! (Pretty Likely)

C: Out of the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Titans, Steelers, Broncos, and Chiefs, two of those teams end up winning the division, one ends up winning the Wild Card, and the rest of them have terrible seasons. The Chargers then get the last Wild Card spot. (I’d like to put down 10 bucks at 30,000 to 1 odds for this, thank you.)

D: Malcolm Floyd, Eddie Royal, and Vincent Brown make up for Vincent Jackson not being there and provide Phillip Rivers with quality short throwing options. (Decent Odds)

E: Ryan Mathews doesn’t get injured. (Sometimes I crack myself up)

My prediction for the San Diego Chargers’ 2012 season is a modest 9-7 and just out of the playoffs. At least Norv Turner is no longer the Chargers’ head coach... wait, he is? OK, 7-9 and a long way out of the playoffs.

       21: DALLAS COWBOYS

Before the Jets started unrightfully stealing every national headline, this is the team I used to hate for getting so much undeserved attention. They were like the Notre Dame of professional football; consistently underperforming in recent years and receiving a perplexing amount of media attention due to their reputation. Michael Irvin and Lou Holtz (for the Cowboys and Notre Dame, respectively) are the champions of this trend. If Rich Eisen suddenly grew wings and started flying around the set of NFL Gameday, Michael Irvin would probably still be sitting in front of the camera talking about Tony Romo an hour later.

A popular topic for debate among NFL TV personalities this offseason was whether the Super Bowl window had closed for the Cowboys. I’d argue that not only is it closed, it was never open. It might have been possible in the 2007 season if they hadn’t suffered a crushing loss to the Giants, but at no time before or after that was it ever remotely possible, in my opinion. That starts with the QB. Tony Romo is a great stats quarterback. He’ll consistently get you 300 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s one of the only athletes I can think of who has a “choking hazard” label that is entirely warranted. Watch everything that transpires over the last fifteen minutes in the 2011 Jets-Cowboys game and you’ll see a vintage Tony Romo choke job. Also, get the best view that you can on the interception he threw to Darelle Revis near the end of the game and try to explain to me exactly what he was attempting to do. I can’t even venture a guess. The point is, the Cowboys aren’t sniffing the Super Bowl with Tony Romo. The rest of their offense, however, looks pretty good. I’m in on DeMarco Murray this year; he has that rare mix of power, straightaway speed, and agility that not a lot of running backs have. My only concern is how his high ankle sprain is healing. It has been reported that the injury has healed and it’s not showing in his camp performance, but never underestimate the effect of significant knee and ankle injuries on running backs. The receivers are in a bit of a flux after Jason Witten experienced a slight drop-off in his touchdowns (from 9 to 5) and his receptions (from 94 to 79). However, the bigger issue with the wide receiving class of 2012 for the Cowboys is big man Dez Bryant. Bryant was arrested about a week or two before I wrote this section for allegedly assaulting his mother. He’s been such a liability in terms of character that Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones finally had to have a sit down with him. He says that it went well, but when the meeting prompted Jones to say, “As a daddy, sometimes you’re not supposed to spank when you get mad”, you kind of have to wonder about that. So…… yeah.

I really like the move that the Cowboys made for Morris Claiborne. For all the shots that I’m taking at the Cowboys (both justified and unjustified), they’ve always been the ones to act instead of react when it comes to acquiring players, which is something I really respect. If there’s a big trade being discussed, the Cowboys always want to enter the discussion, and the Claiborne Move was no different. He should bring some stability and ball skills to a secondary that has had almost none of that for a long while now. The Cowboys also have DeMarcus Ware, one of the most routinely destructive players in the NFL and a guy who has recorded double digit sacks in every year since 2006. Sean Lee started alongside Ware in 2011 season and had a strong first season as a starter, notching over seventy solo tackles and ten tackles for loss. Overall, the Cowboys were a very disciplined team, ranking third to last in the league in total penalties. However, I feel like the rest of the NFC East has gotten better or remained the same and the Cowboys haven’t caught up to them yet. In past years, the Chargers and Cowboys have both repeatedly suckered me into thinking, “this is their year." They’re not going to get me again this time.

       20: TENNESSEE TITANS

After signing a big contract extension in the training camp preceding the 2011 NFL Season, Chris Johnson fell off the face of the Earth. Statistically, his year wasn’t awful; he averaged four yards per carry and rushed for 1,047 yards. However, it was more than a 75% downgrade from his 2010 yardage totals over a comparable number of attempts. However, it might not be entirely his fault. Check out these Football Outsiders statistics regarding the Titans’ O-Line.

Stuff Rate (Plays where the running back is tackled for 0 yards or less): 24%(29th in the NFL)

Adjusted Line Yards 3.39 yards per carry (Last in the NFL)

Second Level Yards 1.03 yards per carry (31st in the NFL)

Now, some of this is obviously Chris Johnson’s fault. It feels like his vision for knowing where cutback lanes are going to open has suddenly disappeared. In 2009 when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, it was almost impossible to get his feet or legs to stop moving. If you ever watch a game that Chris Johnson played in 2011 where he didn’t do well, notice how much he either stops moving in an area where there is no cutback lane or has no choice but to run directly into the defensive pursuit. It’s possible that Chris Johnson is being used in the wrong capacity, seeing as how the Titans’ line is built for man to man angle blocking and not zone blocking, which requires more agility. The Titans like to run a bunch of zone plays for Chris Johnson so he can use his superior vision to find a hole in the defense and exploit it. However, running the zone is as much a detriment to the Titans' massive O-Line as it is a benefit to Chris Johnson. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Titans go bigger and run a primarily angle blocking scheme or stay with the zone scheme. Another very interesting piece of the Titans’ offense is their quarterback battle. Specifically, when will Jake Locker take over the starting job from veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck? Locker showed promise in limited action last year, starting two and a half games while throwing 542 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. The move could come sooner than a lot of people think, especially if the Titans find themselves in a hole early on in the season. Overall, this offense could either be very good or very bad. There are a lot of question marks. Is Chris Johnson going to rebound from his subpar 2011 and return to being an elite back? Is Jake Locker going to start, when is he going to start, and how effective will he be? Who’s the number one receiver, Kenny Britt or Nate Washington? Will the offensive line show up this year? Why is the O-Line so bad when their head coach, Mike Munchak, gained his reputation as an offensive line coach? Why exactly does a sixteen year old kid in central Jersey care so much about the Titans? All of these questions need to be answered before the Titans’ offense can be considered playoff caliber. Well, except the last one. I’ve got no answer for you there.

First and foremost, the Titans need to improve their pass rush. They ranked 31st in the league in sacks and their defense had to stay on the field for extended periods of time because of it. The two guys that really need to come up big on this Titans defense if they want to make the playoffs are Derrick Morgan and Colin McCarthy. McCarthy saw limited action throughout the season and only began seeing significant playing time in Week 10. McCarthy averaged over six combined tackles per game and also forced two fumbles. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that if McCarthy can keep it up, we might be looking at the next elite linebacker. Meanwhile, 2010 first round draft pick Derrick Morgan has to rebound from a season-long injury and contribute in some way to the Titans pass rush. I like the talent on this team and I think that they can go far provided a few pieces fall into place in the coming years. However, there’s just too many question marks with this year’s team to go any more than 9-7 on them. This team is the very definition of the phrase “one year away."

                19: BUFFALO BILLS

After being both 3-0 and 5-2 in 2011, the Bills collapsed in a seven game losing streak and crushed their fans’ hopes yet again. In other words, it was par for the course. But you know what’s kinda strange? The Bills kinda look like a sleeper this year! But much like the Titans, there are more than a couple “ifs” with this team. So, I present to you

WAY TOO MANY IFS: THE BUFFALO BILLS’ STORY

IF the new offense works. Last season, the Bills changed their offense so that it relied on stretching the field horizontally. Their thinking is that if they run with a lot of four wide receiver sets with Fred Jackson in the backfield, it will both open up their offense for catch and run plays and remove defenders from the box so Fred Jackson can constantly face 5 and 6 man fronts. However, to put in that extra receiver, you often have to remove the tight end, which really hurts blocking. And since the Bills’ O-Line isn’t fantastic, Fitzpatrick is going to be taking a lot of three step drops. Those three step drops mean that the receivers are going to be running predominantly short routes, so I feel like a defense can make the Bills one dimensional by pressing the receivers and challenging the short throws.

IF the Bills can get healthy. Don’t forget the fact that Mario Williams missed a majority of the 2011 season with a torn pectoral muscle. Fred Jackson missed just under half of 2011 with a foot injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a nagging rib injury since their last loss to the Jets. It’s getting to the point where I won’t even get within fifty yards of a Buffalo Bills jersey, or else I’m sure I’d suffer a high ankle sprain or something. Provided that everybody is back in the lineup and there are no recurring injuries, then the Bills could be a legitimate dark horse wildcard team. If they’re not, then the Bills might be in some serious trouble.

IF Mark Anderson can be a factor on that Bills’ defense. Anderson is coming off a surprising 10 sack year for the New England Patriots and is supposed to be a big part of the Bills’ revamped pass rush. However, Anderson played in a very specific system in New England that allowed him to succeed. Anderson thrived playing in New England’s unique mix of 3-4 and 4-3. They often ran both one and two gap schemes simultaneously, attacking gaps on the strong side of the line and attacking blockers on the weak side of the line. Therefore, all Anderson really had to do was rush the passer. He only recorded 28 tackles total in 2011, and I don’t think he’ll have the same success in Buffalo because he doesn’t have guys like Wilfork and Jerod Mayo who make a lot of tackles behind him. I think the Bills might have overrated Anderson because the scheme he played in seemed to elevate him from a average/good defensive end to a good/great defensive end.

IF Ryan Fitzpatrick can become the Bills’ franchise guy at QB. I was never really sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s got good mobility, yet doesn’t really have a great sense of timing and his pocket presence is only average. He’s got good accuracy, yet not much of an arm. You can definitely make the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick IF the rest of your team is good enough, but, like every team in this section, there are more than a few question marks with this Bills’ team. And none are bigger than Fitzpatrick. In a quarterback driven league, Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to step up big time if the Bills are going to surpass the Jets, Bengals, and whoever else is in contention for the AFC Wild Card spot. Since I’m lazy, there were like five to ten more ifs that I didn’t write about. I just chose the four most important ones. But you get the picture. Maybe, if some of those “ifs” are settled, the Bills can contend either this season or next. But I think that it will most likely be next year IF they take care of the remaining loose ends on their team.

       18: CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Panthers already have the biggest piece that they need to become successful in quarterback Cam Newton. I’d argue that there is no other player in the league on offense or defense that creates as many matchup problems for the opposing team as Cam Newton does. When you’re the first QB to both throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 500 yards in a single season, that means you’re an absolute nightmare for every single defensive coordinator that faces you. Usually, the defense has a natural advantage over an offense. Both teams have eleven guys. Say the offense comes out with five linemen, a tight end, a QB, and four wide receivers. If the defense committed one person to matching up with each guy on offense, that leaves one spare defender to either rush the passer or drop back into coverage. But when you have a quarterback that can both throw the ball downfield AND be a significant threat on the ground, suddenly the defense loses that extra guy because they have to be committed to the possibility of a QB scramble. And even though they’re all better quarterbacks than Cam Newton at this point in time, that’s something Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees don’t have. When you have a guy like Newton, suddenly the field really opens up both horizontally and vertically. If you want to run with him, just line up in a four or five receiver set and have him follow his blocks, which will work because the formation ensures that there won’t be an eight man front. You wanna throw it? Fine, Steve Smith can consistently beat cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage, DeAngelo Williams is an underrated tool for use in screen passes and other flat routes, and Greg Olsen can either catch intermediate length passes or run deep routes up the seam to take away an underneath linebacker or the deep safety. Which would in turn free up Cam Newton to run if he wants to. As you may not have been able to tell, I’m kind of a fan of Newton’s skillset. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart provide a nice change of pace in the running game and Mike Tolbert is an all purpose guy (catching, running, and blocking) who can almost guarantee a touchdown in goal line situations. And don’t forget about Brandon LaFell, the number two receiver who is about to catch nine touchdowns this year due to the Panthers’ love of utilizing Newton in the red zone. Time Out: He ended up catching four. This book is turning out to be a very bad idea. In the process of about two years, the Panthers’ offense has gone through a radical transformation from an absolute joke to one of the premier units in the National Football League.

So why put them this low if their offense is that good? Well, there are two reasons. First of all, there are teams in the NFC that are more complete than the Panthers that are also competing for that Wild Card spot. Assuming that the preseason favorites (Eagles, Packers, Saints, and Niners) win the divisions (and I don’t think that will be the case), then the Panthers will contend with the Giants, Cowboys, Lions, Bears, Falcons, and Seahawks for two of the Wild Card spots. Out of all those teams, the Panthers have the worst defense. Newton isn’t so good that the performance of the Carolina defense doesn’t matter, nor does Carolina’s defense force enough turnovers (24 takeaways for a +1 turnover margin) to make up for their 28th ranked total defense or their 27th ranked scoring defense. Even though quarterback might trump everything else, I’m still holding on to the outdated notion that you need at least a decent defense to win a Super Bowl. The Giants were awful in terms of yardage on defense, but they got sacks when it mattered. The Pats were similarly awful in terms of yardage, but they forced turnovers and didn’t let up a lot of points. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ D has very little going for it. Jon Beason and maybe Charles Johnson are the only two remotely above average players they have as of the day I’m writing this (August 11th), and I’m not exactly giddy about their projections for the 2012 season. Wait until 2013, Panthers’ fans.

       17: DENVER BRONCOS

After being elevated to a surprising AFC Divisional Round appearance by God disguised as a human named Tim Tebow (I don’t actually believe that. Tebowmania spiraled out of control to the point where I had to clarify), the Broncos brought in Peyton Manning. For the sake of my aching wrists, since I’m at the end of a marathon writing session right now, I’m not going to recap the Tebow-Manning chain of events again. But the Broncos’ entire season will hinge on the question of whether Peyton Manning is healthy or not. The Broncos’ receivers are not stellar, but that won’t be a problem. Manning is one of those rare guys who can make it work no matter who his receivers are. Even though Demaryius Thomas is formally the number one receiver right now, his lack of experience in a conventional offense will mean that Eric Decker will probably be receiving the lion’s share of targets. It might even work better that way because if the Broncos plug Demaryius Thomas in to the number two receiver position or the slot, he’ll suddenly be matched up against shorter corners. That’s where he can rely on his 6 foot 3 inch frame and ridiculous wingspan (Jay Bilas alert) to create mismatches for opposing corners. The Broncos also have a few options at the running back position, but Willis McGahee figures to be the number one guy. However, the Broncos also moved up in the third round of the draft to take San Diego State running back Ronnie Hillman. He might cut into McGahee’s appearances, but he shouldn’t threaten his starting job as long as he’s healthy. He’s an explosive back who is great at catching passes out of the backfield, and he could be a good option for the Broncos this year. Personally, I’m hoping that McGahee does well so I can feel good about buying his twenty dollar autographed mini helmet. You know, just as a way of indirectly thanking him for being the only reliable running back on my 2011 fantasy team. But in the end, it’ll all boil down to Peyton Manning to produce most of the offense’s yards. From what I’ve heard about him in training camp, he’s not having any significant problems learning the verbiage of his new offense and he looks completely healed from his offseason surgery. However, these reports are based on non-contact drills in training camp. We’ll have to see how he does behind a new offensive line and in a pressure situation to judge where he is in comparison to the old Peyton Manning.

The Denver defense is headlined by a pair of explosive pass rushers. Second year linebacker Von Miller (11.5 sacks) and defensive end Elvis Dumervil (9.5 sacks) should continue to wreak havoc on opposing QBs. However, the Denver Post is reporting that the guy on the Broncos’ defense that has impressed the most is high second round pick Derek Wolfe. He recorded two sacks in his first preseason game and began getting practice reps with the first team. So if Derek Wolfe can become a quality pass rusher, that’s suddenly a really good front seven. I also really like what Denver is doing in the secondary. With Tracy Porter, Drayton Florence, Keith Brooking, and the Brain Trust (my nickname for Jim Leonhard, who became one of my favorite players over the last few years) in the back four, there’s a nice mix of veterans and athletic young guys on this roster. All in all, I’m not worried about the Denver defense. And if it seems like I’ve been touting the offense over the defense on these last few teams, it’s because the offense truly is the more newsworthy unit. This whole team will revolve almost solely around Peyton Manning. If he fails, then Brock Osweiler comes in and the Broncos drop down into the cellar while Osweiler develops. If this experiment succeeds, then the Broncos are one of the top ten teams in the league and Osweiler will develop behind one of the ten best and smartest QBs to ever play the game. I’m taking the safe road and splitting the difference. My prediction for the Broncos is either 8-8 or 9-7 and second place in the AFC West.

       CLOSE BUT..... (16-13)

     16: CINCINNATI BENGALS

Don’t worry, excluding the Bengals from the playoffs isn’t the most ridiculous part of the preseason power rankings. But as all those spam emails say, “Sounds crazy, but I thought it was worth a shot!” Also, it’s a really bad sign that I’m comparing anything about this book to a spam email. Anyways, here’s my argument in full for the Bengals missing the playoffs this year. Time Out: On second thought, not worth a shot at all.

First of all, the 2011 Bengals played a very easy out of division schedule. Their only truly tough games were within their own division against the Steelers and Ravens, the two teams in the AFC North that they need to compete with in order to make the playoffs. With that info in mind, don’t you think it seems kind of relevant that they recorded an 0-4 record against those teams in 2011? Me too. Keep in mind that the Bengals definitely don’t have a bad team. There are good assets on both sides of the ball. However, there are too many good teams in the AFC and the Bengals just aren’t up to the point where they can challenge those teams. They played seven games against playoff teams in 2011 and lost all of them (not counting their Wild Card Round loss to the Texans). Plus, the Bengals won four games by way of a fourth quarter comeback against the Titans, Bills, Jaguars, and Browns, teams that had a combined record of 24-40. If you’re expecting to break through an especially deep AFC and/or win the AFC North, the four teams mentioned above and the words “fourth quarter comeback” really shouldn’t be mixing in any capacity. The Bengals also recorded a solid 0 in the turnover ratio department. Plus, their defense recorded only twenty five sacks, tied for 28th in the league. So we know that the Bengals aren’t a particularly explosive team on the defensive side of the ball. But I think the biggest problem with the Bengals is a lack of identity UNLESS Andy Dalton can turn into an elite QB. Because without that, what do they do exceptionally well? Definitely not passing; that’s a stat they rank 20th in. Their top rusher, Cedric Benson, is not on the roster anymore. BenJarvus Green-Ellis could fill in some of that missing production, but the luxury he had in New England of facing five and six man fronts on a lot of snaps will be virtually non-existent. I’d expect a letdown in his production this year. And defenses are going to find success against the Bengals if they just throw double teams at A.J. Green every play unless Mohamed Sanu can develop into a viable second option. And the Bengals were extremely fortunate to be the only team (as far as I can tell, anyways) to not play any of the top ten offenses in terms of total yards in the NFL in 2011. So there’s absolutely no reason to think that their defense will put up the same kind of numbers this year. All in all, the 2011 Bengals were some fourth quarter heroics and a couple unlucky special teams turnovers that didn’t happen away from being a pedestrian 8-8 team.

I definitely do not have anything against the Bengals. In fact, there are a lot of things to like about them. Some predicted them to finish below 4-12 before the 2011 season started, and they quietly executed one of the more shocking turnarounds we’ve seen in the last two decades, on par with the 08 Dolphins and 97/98 Jets. A.J. Green and Andy Dalton, provided they keep developing at the pace they’ve shown us over the past year, could be terrorizing defenses for years to come. The Bengals’ defense is always going to be respectable with Mike Zimmer there to coach them, and guys like Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick are going to ensure that their pass defense stays top notch. However, the Bengals are still one step behind both their division and their conference. It’s not necessarily that there’s something wrong with the Bengals, but the other teams that they hope to catch have strong identities. The Ravens have their hard-nosed defense and Ray Rice. The Steelers have their pass rush and a very good passing game. The Bengals are good at everything, but not great at anything. And until they become elite in a specific area, they’ll always be on the outside looking in.

       15: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Nope, we’re not at the most shocking prediction of the preseason power rankings yet.

I’m sure that when people read this thing (all twelve of you that bought it), will think that I’m an absolute idiot when Drew Brees breaks his own passing record and the Saints go 16-0. But here’s how things appear to me right now.

The Saints got absolutely destroyed by the bounty punishments. Nobody realizes how much of an impact they’ve made yet, but everybody will in due time. The Saints lost more than a couple of players and coaches in the aftermath of BountyGate, they lost the foundations of a winning culture. Sure, part of that foundation was corrupt and based on opponents’ broken legs and rolls of hundred dollar bills, but it’s not something that you can just yank from under a team and expect them to do without. The head coach, the defensive coordinator, the GM, and the middle linebacker are all essential guys to a team. Plus, the interim head coach, Joe Vitt, will be suspended for the first six games in 2012. That’s right, the Saints will be playing a good portion of 2012 under an interim interim head coach. Or as Michael Scott would call it, interim to the interim head coach. Alright, how can this possibly work well? Even though Joe Vitt and the Saints say that they will not change Sean Peyton’s system, there’s always at least a little bit of turnover once you change head coaches. And speaking of systems, the Saints lost their defensive captain, Jonathan Vilma. Guess who called all the defensive plays for the Saints in 2011? Yep, that was Jonathan Vilma. As for the person that those calls were coming from, Gregg Williams is suspended indefinitely and will be nowhere near the sideline for the 2012 season. The whole chain of command on their defense was destroyed in about a day and a hundred or so words from Roger Goodell. Whether Goodell exercised too much authority or attempted to suspend James Harrison (I couldn’t resist) is another debate for another time. But these penalties will hurt the Saints so much more than anybody is predicting right now. Timeout: This is one of the only times that I have ever impressed myself with my foresight. Doesn’t happen often.

Of course, we all know the positives about the New Orleans Saints. Their offense will be business as usual with Drew Brees at the helm. Brees is everything you’d ever want from a quarterback: smart, quick release, great accuracy, unbelievable arm strength, and a knack for knowing when to thread the needle and when to just check it down or throw it away. The Saints did lose Robert Meachem this past offseason to San Diego, but Brees is so good that Meachem should be easily replaceable. Brees’ record overshadowed another mark set by a member of the Saints’ offense. Running back Darren Sproles set a record for the most all purpose yards in a season with 2,696, and he figures to be a very valuable part of the Saints’ attack in 2012. Also, I’m looking for Mark Ingram to be more involved in 2012. The second year Heisman winning running back from Alabama University took a backseat to Sproles and the passing game last year, and should have more of a role, especially on the goal line. And let’s not forget Jimmy Graham, who emerged into the second best tight end in football behind Rob Gronkowski and perhaps the premier blocking tight end in the game. The defense, however, was something of a problem even before the bounty suspensions. They ranked 31st in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways, which should really call into question how effective the bounty program was. Statistically and personnel wise, it’s par for the course in New Orleans. But not only should their competition be better this year, they should also be hungrier. You can bet that the Packers want revenge after what happened in January against the Giants. You can count on the Eagles starting to come together this year. You can count on the whole NFC South being tougher and one or two other teams (maybe the Lions or the Seahawks) taking a huge leap forward. The Saints? They’re shorthanded both between the lines and on them, and the core group of guys that helped build the Saints from 2009 onward aren’t even there anymore except for Drew Brees. You’ll start to see the Saints have more of those games along the lines of their 2011 Week 8 loss in St Louis; the ones where they’re losing badly but you can’t quite figure out why. My prediction for the Saints is 9-7 and out of the playoffs.

       14: CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears finally threw their offense a bone by getting some help for Jay Cutler, bringing in Mike Tice as the offensive coordinator, and re-signing Matt Forte. Since my last update on the Forte contract situation, the Bears have finally locked up their star RB with a 4 year, 32 million dollar deal that also includes 17 million dollars in guaranteed money. However, the question of whether he’ll be a happy new contract guy (Tom Brady) or a dropoff in production new contract guy (Chris Johnson) remains to be seen. My money is on the latter of those two options. Even though reports by the Chicago Sun-Times say that Forte’s frustration with the Bears has been mostly alleviated, some tension still remains. Forte said a few weeks ago that the deal, “could have been done last year” and, “stuff like that really frustrates you as a player.” If that weren’t enough, after the Bears signed Michael Bush to be Forte’s backup, Forte tweeted, “there's only so many times a man that has done everything he's been asked to do can be disrespected!" Sounds like a totally happy guy to me. So even though the public relationship between Forte and the Bears is good, my guess is that the private one might be less than sterling. If Matt Forte does go into a Chris Johnson-like funk because of the offseason contract disputes, the Bears’ offense is really going to be hurt. Speaking of Chicago running backs, Michael Bush was a very underrated offseason pickup for the Bears. He’s a multipurpose back, not unlike Forte, that can really contribute to the Bears’ offense. He’ll be taking most of the goal line carries away from Forte, and the Bears may use him in the passing game. If so, then they could use Forte and Bush in dual-back formations for either the run or the pass, since either of them against all but the most athletic of linebackers is a mismatch. They will serve as a nice complement to a resurgent Bears’ passing game, which features a reunited Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall (sadly, Marshall’s “I want to kill Josh McDaniels” face will not be making appearances in Chicago.) The Bears also took South Carolina standout Alshon Jeffery in the second round. Jeffrey, the 2010 Biletnikoff Award winner, gives the Bears another tall wide receiver to throw to. Because of the elite possession receiver skills of both Jeffrey and Marshall, speedsters Johnny Knox and Devin Hester are free to run deep routes. It’ll all be up to Jay Cutler and an extremely spotty offensive line to help carry the offense. One big positive of bringing in tall possession receivers like Marshall and Jeffrey is that Cutler can now afford to take three step drops and get rid of the ball quickly, whereas he had to wait a long time for routes to develop when Johnny Knox and Roy Williams were his number one guys. This opened the door for a lot of sacks and interceptions, especially if the wide receivers were jammed at the line of scrimmage. A large part of the Bears’ explosiveness was provided in the return game by Hester, the best return man in NFL history, and we should continue to see that over the next few years. Hester’s a guy whose acceleration and vision makes him a threat to go to the end zone every time he fields a kick or punt.

The Bears’ pass rush was helped immensely when they picked up Boise State outside linebacker Shea McClellin in the draft. I’m not so sure I like this pick for the Bears. McClellin is only 260 pounds and his best attribute, versatility, won’t be utilized to the fullest extent in Chicago’s 4-3 defense. I would have liked McClellin a lot better going to a 3-4 team, where he could shift and stunt between defensive end and linebacker. Maybe he is too small for a 3-4 defensive end, but that problem would be somewhat negated if he were to be played at linebacker, the traditional pass rushing position for a 3-4. He’ll be starting opposite Julius Peppers on the Bears defensive line. Although Peppers had 11 sacks last year, he’s currently 32 years old and coming off the prime of his career. Come to think of it, so is leading tackler Lance Briggs (31 years old) and second leading tackler Brian Urlacher (34 years old). All the important players on the Bears are aging, and their secondary was purged of most experience a few years ago, which might explain why they ranked 28th in the league in passing yards allowed. Their longest tenured starting corner, Charles Tillman, is more of a tackler than a coverage guy, so don’t expect the Bears’ secondary to improve. This Bears team is a big step up from previous years with one or two flaws that will keep them out of the playoffs. In many other years, this team would be good enough to make the playoffs. However, a deep NFC and a questionable secondary that can’t stand up to the elite offenses in their own division will keep the Bears out of the playoffs.

       13: NEW YORK GIANTS

Yep, I just went there. The defending Super Bowl Champions are going to miss the playoffs. Don’t waste your breath accusing me of being biased against the Giants, because I absolutely am. But don’t worry, there’s a legitimate reason for the Giants not being in the playoffs. Before I start spelling out the reasons why they’re not going to make it, let me begin by saying that there are all kinds of things to like about the Giants. Of course, a lot of those things boil down to five players, but there are a lot of things to like nevertheless. They have an identity, a great quarterback, and a fantastic head coach that doesn’t deserve half the pressure he gets in years when he doesn’t win the Super Bowl. However, it appears to me that their success was the result of catching fire at the perfect time and the performance of their stars. Somehow, the Giants’ identity (Eli, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, pass rush led by Jason Pierre-Paul) kicked into gear and every bad thing about them (unreliable running game, offensive line whose run blocking was awful, aging linebacker corps, extremely suspect secondary) seemed to fade away without explanation. Did you ever wonder how a team that lost to the Seahawks, the Redskins, and almost to the winless Dolphins won the Super Bowl? One word, momentum. First of all, momentum isn’t the same thing as luck. Luck is how you explain an end of the half Hail Mary succeeding (which happened to the Giants against the Packers in the divisional round). Momentum is something that the Giants built just before Week 16 and it carried them all the way to the Super Bowl. It started with the “All In” speech from Gian-Paul Gonzalez right before the Jets game. Then, the Giants easily defeated the Jets and the Cowboys, two teams that were in the process of decomposing. Then, the Giants defeated an identity-less Falcons team, a Packers team that beat themselves with four turnovers and six dropped passes, a 49ers team starting Alex Smith at quarterback, and a Patriots’ team whose defense ranked next to last in the league.  Does anything about the past three sentences make a repeat seem likely? There’s nothing wrong with riding that wave of momentum to a championship, but it’s highly unlikely to unfold that way again. In the NFL, momentum has a tendency to swing back the other way. The “Super Bowl Hangover” is a powerful force not because players start to get lazy or complacent, but because that emotion is gone. That Giants team was a perfect blend of experience (Manning, Tuck, Bradshaw, etc) and that drive to win your first one (Cruz, Nicks, Pierre-Paul, Boley, etc). Even worse for defending champions, opponents are now doubly excited to beat the best. It takes a special kind of team, along the lines of the Walsh era 49ers or the Belichick era Patriots, to weather that storm. I don’t think the Giants are that team.

The emotional reasons will prevent the Giants from repeating. The physical reasons are why they won’t make the playoffs. First of all, their schedule. It’s statistically the toughest in the league. And if we’re projecting their schedule based on how teams are going to do this year, then their Week two home game against Tampa and their Week 7 home game against Washington are the only two easy games to be found. Even worse, the Giants have done nothing to improve a secondary that will see Robert Griffin III, Michael Vick, and Tony Romo twice a year. The only reliable guy that the Giants have in their secondary is Kenny Phillips, and he’s constantly getting injured. Antrel Rolle is a playmaking gambler, but not somebody that they can consistently rely on to shut opposing wide receivers down. Unless Prince Amukamura can come back from his injury as good as advertised, then opponents are going to continue having a field day through the air. Don’t forget, this was the principal problem for the Giants in 2011 when they were 7-7 and barely in the playoff race.  Plus, the Giants lack a middle class. You always hear NFL analysts talk about “glue” players.  For the sake of future reference, we’ll call them Glue Guys. They’re the guys who are overlooked, but can play multiple positions/always show up with a moderate contribution/are the unassuming type of player that always get the big touchdowns. It’s impossible to define what makes them so valuable to a team, but you know them when you see them and it takes a few years of following the NFL to identify one. Look at the Patriots, for instance. Aaron Hernandez is a glue guy. So is Gary Guyton. So was BenJarvus Green-Ellis. And Julian Edelman is in the Glue Guy Hall of Fame. These are the guys who aren’t stars, but can still contribute in very unexpected ways. OK, so where are these guys on the Giants? Travis Beckum isn’t there anymore. Mario Manningham was a crucial member of the Giants’ middle class, and he’s not there anymore. Brandon Jacobs was a glue guy and a valuable pass blocker, but he’s now in San Francisco. I feel like the same complaint that people had about the Jets last season now exists about the Giants, and it’s not something that’s conducive to winning football.

Maybe I’m an idiot. Scratch that, I’m quite possibly an idiot. Time Out: Au contraire! See, I know what I’m talking about on occasion. The odds are stacked sky-high against the Giants not returning to the playoffs, and they’ll probably make it back. But that’s why people make upset picks; if the odds were always right then we’d all be on TV picking football games. Alas, they’re not. Something just doesn’t feel right about this Giants team. Call it a hunch. Bill Simmons might call it the “Everybody believes in us too much” syndrome. Whatever it is, I think that there are better candidates for the two Wild Card spots in the NFC. And that’s not just because I hate the Giants.

       THE WILD CARD TEAMS: (12-9)

       12: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Welcome to my sleeper team for 2012. Yep, it’s the Seattle Seahawks. I really wouldn’t be surprised if they won the division, but I fully expect them to be at least in the Wild Card hunt and maybe even win the six seed. Here’s why:

1. I have a ton of completely irrational confidence in their quarterbacks. I would feel totally confident with Matt Flynn starting. Or Russell Wilson. Put it to you this way: I’d be fine with Mussell Flynnson starting at QB. I think Flynn showed a ton of promise in Green Bay, and he looked incredibly sharp and on point with his throws in a preseason win over the Titans. And if Flynn doesn’t end up getting the starting job, they would be absolutely OK with Russell Wilson. He’s a mobile quarterback that has fantastic arm strength. He was great at Wisconsin and I see no reason why he won’t be great in the pros.

2. The Seattle secondary is ready to break out. I’m not just talking about Earl Thomas, who is a beast in his own right and probably among the top ten safeties in the league. Brandon Browner quietly had one of the best seasons of any corner in the league in 2011 with six interceptions, two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and a league best twenty three passes defended. After spending four years in the Canadian Football League, Browner made his first Pro Bowl appearance last season. If he maintains his excellent ball skills and his ability to read a quarterback’s eyes before he throws, there’s no reason to believe he won’t make it back there again.

Browner and Thomas aren’t the only rising stars on the Seahawks’ secondary. Have you ever heard of Richard Sherman if you’re not a Seahawks fan? Just shake your head no. I found out about him around the end of last season when I was going through the ESPN stats pages. Did you know that he has seventeen passes defended, tied for tenth in the league? Or that he also had four interceptions? That’s a pretty strong resume for a second corner, and I expect more out of him this year. With Thomas, Browner, Sherman, and Kam Chancellor in the back four, the Seahawks have a ball hawking secondary that’s going to make plays when it counts. And they’re in a division with Alex Smith, a rehabbing Sam Bradford, and a grotesque mixture of Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. Which reminds me....

3. Their division is going to be one part challenging, two parts absolute garbage. The Niners clearly aren’t going to be as good as they were last year; no team starting Alex Smith at quarterback is going to maintain a +28 turnover ratio. That would defy just about every precedent that’s ever been set in the NFL. Timeout: It’s kind of astounding how much I crapped on Alex Smith in the preseason. I didn’t have anything against the guy personally or performance wise, as far as his 2011 season went. I was probably just prejudiced against him because I remembered all of his bad seasons, in which case, shame on me. The Rams and the Cardinals don’t have as much talent on their roster as the Seahawks have on theirs. And it also helps that the Seahawks only have five quality opponents on their schedule (quality opponent is defined as a 9-7 or above team who made the playoffs in the preceding year). Only the Patriots (4) have fewer. Plus, they’re one of the few teams remaining in the NFL that has a legitimate home field advantage anymore. Qwest Field is the loudest stadium in the league; only Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City even comes close. That throws opponents’ communication off immensely and really swings any momentum in a close game back in the Seahawks’ favor. So between the easy division and the home field advantage, that’s at least 8-9 completely possible wins.

4. Here’s the one catch. They need Marshawn Lynch to show up for their offense to work. In an offense featuring a suspect O-Line, below average wide receivers (I’m looking at you, T.O.), and young quarterbacks, a guy like Marshawn Lynch becomes really valuable. He can block effectively, take on eight man fronts with success, and really open up the passing game. That’s what he did for the Seahawks last year. However, he was arrested in the offseason and charged with a DUI, and he’s at the point in his career where most power running backs start to lose it. If he can’t produce for the Seahawks, then the weight of the offense falls on Mussell Flynnson’s shoulders, and I’m not sure they’ll find success if they’re getting constantly blitzed and facing Cover 4s on first and ten. If Marshawn Lynch can bounce back, keep running hard, and bowl defenders over like he’s been doing, then the Seahawks’ offense is really going to open up and whoever is starting at QB is going to get opportunities to let his receivers make plays down the field. I think Lynch is going to return at full strength and the Seahawks are going to pull out a surprise wild card berth.

11: NEW YORK JETS

I keep telling myself that the Jets can make it to the playoffs. I’ve apparently told myself often enough that I ended up believing it. No, seriously, they can make it. Don’t forget that the Jets finished 8-8 in 2011 under the worst circumstances that possibly could have happened. Short of something along the lines of a hostile takeover by Matt Millen, 2011 was one of the worst-case scenarios. An ugly breakdown, a 2-6 road record, and all those turnovers were the worst thing that possibly could have happened to the Jets. Yet. they still went 8-8 after going 11-5 in 2010 with the exact same team. If you’ve got pretty much the exact same team, there’s nowhere to go but up, right?  So, without further ado, the first NFL preseason team prediction column that doesn’t involve talking about the backup quarterback or players on the punt coverage team. Whoops, I’m now being told that most NFL preview columns don’t talk about them. My bad. Time Out: Let’s hope that in just a year or two after this book’s release, nobody will remember which player that joke vaguely referenced. Anyways, here are the sometimes lovable misfits that we know as the Jets and why they’ve got a shot at the playoffs.

I would tell you to check out the second half of their schedule, but this is a giant running diary of the NFL Season and checking out their schedule by the time you’re reading this would be somewhat pointless. You just need to know that every single game after their bye week was absolutely winnable. And the Jets’ three toughest games (Houston, San Francisco, and New England) all come at home, a place where the Jets went 6-2 in 2011. Plus, since they are such a mess and they’re apparently not going to the Super Bowl this year (darn, Rex’s guarantee has been spot-on the last three years), they no longer have a target on their backs, which can only help them.

Regardless of the sideshow on the offense, the Jet defense is going to be in the top five this year. That’s right, top five. If you look back about ten to twelve months from the release date of this book on grantland.com, Bill Barnwell wrote a fantastic piece on the Jets’ defense. Here are some Football Outsiders statistics from that piece about the 2011 squad.

Defensive Value over Average: 16.1% (2nd in the league)

Points per Drive allowed: 1.55 (tied for 6th in the league)

Drives Faced: 201 (tied for first in the league.)

Number of non-offensive touchdowns allowed: 7 (most in the league)

The stats that have been reliably shown to change every year (special teams turnovers, drives faced, non-offensive touchdowns allowed) all aligned against the Jets in 2011. If the trend that has held true throughout the history of the NFL holds true this season, you can take three or four turnovers off their ratio and a few touchdowns off of their points allowed total as well.

The Jet defense also has a lot of fantastic players. Darelle Revis is the best corner in the league by far. He, Jared Allen, or Jason Pierre-Paul are the only three acceptable answers to the question “Who is the best defensive player in the league?” as of mid-August. And as much as I would like Antonio Cromartie to at least pretend to tackle someone, I have to admit that he is a pretty good coverage corner. The Jets’ main problem in 2011 was the safety position. Eric Smith and Brodney Pool couldn’t cover anyone, so the Jets were getting destroyed by tight ends and stronger number two receivers (like Dez Bryant) that went over the middle and could run through contact. Now, the Jets have two extremely sound tackling safeties, LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell, that can both provide additional run support and go toe to toe with guys like Rob Gronkowski as long as they stay healthy. As a matter of fact, I would say that this is the best defense the Rex Ryan Jets have ever had if Quinton Coples can live up to his great preseason performance and, most of all, IF THEY STAY HEALTHY. Because it only takes one injury to a guy like Landry for their defense to go back to the way it was in 2011.

The offense is going to have a refreshing return to its core philosophies under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano. My principal problem with the 2011 Jets’ offense was that they put out the image of a physical team who was going to run the ball. Then, I saw games like the one against the Giants or Week 3 in Oakland where Sanchez racked up pass attempts in the 40s and 50s. Now, the offense is ready to commit to Shonn Greene, who gained over 1,000 yards in 2011 despite (inhale) an ineffectual QB, LaDanian Tomlinson taking some of his carries, an offensive coordinator who didn’t want to commit to him except for in situations where it made no sense to run (handoff middle to Shonn Greene on second and fifteen was a favorite of Schotty’s), an ineffectual right side of the offensive line, and a head coach that had no idea how to utilize him effectively. Exhale. Now that some of those problems have been fixed, I’m expecting an uptick in production from Greene. If Mark Sanchez can improve, that’s a huge plus for the Jets. In the likely event that he stays the same, this team still has enough talent to eke out a six seed.

10: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Time Out: WARNING! ALERT! YOU ARE ABOUT TO GO THROUGH THE MOST RIDICULOUS PART OF THE BOOK GIVEN WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED. RESIST ALL TEMPTATION TO LAUGH.

The transition from the Todd Haley era to the Romeo Crennel era has been a welcome change for Kansas City. After an oddly undemanding training camp schedule in 2011, the Chiefs have really stepped it up a notch under Crennel. He’s a players first coach whose calm, cool demeanor sharply contrasts the loud, hands-on style of Haley. Crennel will have a very youthful, energetic, and talented team to work with. They’re by far the most complete team in the AFC West and they should be able to lock up the division without an excess of trouble.

Injuries completely destroyed Kansas City in 2011. Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, the Chiefs’ best player on offense and defense respectively, went down early in the season to torn ACLs. Numerous reports coming out of Chiefs’ training camp say that their ACLs are fine and they should both be 100% going into this season. Speaking of Charles, I’m completely fired up about what Charles and Peyton Hillis are going to do this year. Now that the Madden curse has been lifted from Hillis, he should be able to contribute to the Chiefs’ offense as a multi-threat guy. He can be a factor in the passing game, help out an offensive lineman who is consistently getting beaten off the edge, and convert goal line scenarios. Meanwhile, Charles should return to being the same elite running back that he was before his surgery. The only question mark on this offense is the passing attack. Matt Cassel is sufficient at quarterback, but what about his receivers? Dwayne Bowe has just signed a franchise tender after holding out for most of camp to get a long term deal. A lost training camp for Bowe could hurt his production early on as he and Cassel try to get into rhythm. That could mean a significant increase in targets for second year wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin. Although he only had 254 receiving yards last year, he has nevertheless received a good portion of Matt Cassel’s throws in training camp. The Chiefs need either Bowe or Baldwin to step into that number one receiver spot if they’re going to have a decent offense this year. Guys like Steve Breaston and Kevin Boss are going to help with the offensive production, but somebody has to take over and give Cassel a reliable target on every down.

First and foremost, the Chiefs need to improve their run defense. They ranked 26th in that stat in 2011 and gave up an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Derrick Johnson logged 131 tackles by mostly playing in the box against the run, but that’s pretty much the only asset that the 2011 Chiefs had in terms of stopping opposing running backs. In an effort to go bigger on the front seven, the Chiefs picked defensive tackle Dontari Poe in the draft. Even though I don’t think Poe is going to have a great NFL career (see the NFL Draft section on him for details), I’m not sure it’s going to matter that much. The Chiefs play in a division where it’s more important that they stop the pass than the run. Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden are injured half the time anyways. If the Chiefs are going to win the AFC West, they’ll need to be able to stop Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers. Having Eric Berry back in the safety spot is going to go a long way towards doing just that. He’s a multi-tool safety that has the physical tools to cover tight ends and play the run, but he also has the athleticism and ball hawking skills needed to provide a corner with help over the top. Losing Brandon Carr to the Cowboys is going to hurt, but the Chiefs’ secondary is deep enough to compensate. Brandon Flowers is still a big play cornerback, and Kendrick Lewis is an underrated safety that’s primed for a breakout year (always watch third and fourth year players for big increases in production). This is a solid team that has a great chance of winning the AFC West. They can get to the playoffs, but they’re a long way from challenging the Pats, Ravens, Texans, or Steelers.

       9: ATLANTA FALCONS

What was wrong with Atlanta in 2011? Everybody thought it would be the year that they found their identity and put up a serious fight in the playoffs. After a 13-3 performance in 2010, I thought so as well. Unfortunately, the breakthrough never came, and the season culminated in a thoroughly disappointing 24-2 road loss to the Giants on Wild Card Weekend. Again, every playoff team needs to have something that they do exceptionally well, and the Falcons didn’t have that. Instead, they were a team that would earn a grade of B+ in a bunch of different categories, but nothing higher than that in any of them. The passing attack had the receivers necessary to be among the best in the league (Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez), but Matt Ryan is only a slightly better than average quarterback. If your favorite team is playing the Falcons in the playoffs, are you particularly scared of Matt Ryan? If you are a Giants fan, did you feel nervous before every Matt Ryan pass? I’d be wary of him, but I’m not terrified of him in the way that I would be if it were Tom Brady or even Eli Manning taking those snaps. Same goes for Michael Turner. He’s a very good, but not great, running back that has a big on/off switch and is approaching the end of his prime. Besides the last game of 2011, when he played against a Bucs team that probably shouldn’t have even bothered to show up, he went from Week 11 to the end of the season without either a 100 yard game or a game where he averaged 4.0 yards per carry. You know what that means? His jersey might as well have a red flag on it. Every single sign of a declining back is there. Wears down as the season goes on? Check. Inconsistent? Check. Losing speed? Check. Matthew Berry wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole in a fantasy football draft? Double check.  It’ll be up to Jacquizz Rodgers to make up for Turner’s expected dropoff in production.

The Falcons’ defense features a few impressive skill guys, but not much else. Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon both logged over 100 tackles in 2011. Both of them are great at identifying where gaps in the line are going to form and plugging them before the running back gets to the second level. They’re the leaders of a sixth ranked rushing defense that is very good, but nobody’s going to compare them to the Steel Curtain anytime soon. John Abraham is the only standout when it comes to rushing the passer, logging 9.5 sacks. However, he’s 34 years old and a lot of the speed that he had when he was younger is starting to disappear. The Falcons need to find somebody on their defense besides Abraham who can get to the quarterback consistently, and Ray Edwards has been a disappointment in that department so far. Another part of their defense that needs help is the secondary, where Brent Grimes is the only player of note. He had 17 passes defended in 2011 and is a pro bowl caliber corner. Time Out: I loooooove underrated corners and O-Linemen. Grimes is probably one of my ten favorite players. And sadly, none of the players in that top ten are Jets. However, the rest of the secondary was pedestrian. And when you’re sharing a division with teams that employ Drew Brees and Cam Newton, you can’t afford to have a pedestrian secondary. To that end, the Falcons acquired Asante Samuel from the Eagles for a seventh round pick, which was only slightly less of a steal than breaking into the Eagles’ locker room and kidnapping him. He should provide a good counterpart to Grimes at the second corner position while last year’s second corner, Dunta Robinson, will be demoted to the nickelback position. No, not the band Nickelback, the third corner in the Nickel defense. Time Out: This is not the first time I’ve made a truly terrible joke in this book, nor will it be anywhere near the last. Overall, the Falcons are a slightly better than average team that’s masquerading as a contender.

So why put them this high? Why do I have them winning the NFC South when I just told you that they were average? The answer is process of elimination. The Bucs certainly aren’t going to win it. The Panthers might win it if everything falls in place, but I still feel like they’re one year away. And the Saints are my sleeper pick to go up in flames this year because losing the entire coaching staff tends to do that to a team. The Falcons are a team worthy of a playoff spot, but certainly not a spot past the first weekend unless they can distinguish themselves in one area or another.             DIVISIONAL ROUND TEAMS (8-5)

           8: DETROIT LIONS

After showing signs of it for years, the Lions finally had their breakout season in 2011. The Lions' 2011 playoff appearance was their first since 1999. That breakthrough was spearheaded by an unbelievable season from Calvin Johnson. The receiver known as Megatron caught 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. While Lions fans shouldn't expect Johnson to exceed his insane 2011 season, they should expect something similar, especially after signing a deal worth over 130 million dollars this offseason. Time Out: Yep, he exceeded the hell out of it. More details later. Johnson is an athletic freak of nature, a rare specimen that will always provide mismatches for an opposing defense. He's 6'5 and can catch passes that are under or overthrown while being double or triple teamed. It almost doesn't matter what kind of coverage the defense throws at Johnson, he'll always find a way to make a big play. With his amazing athleticism and football smarts, not to mention his insane measurables, Johnson is the franchise wide receiver that every team wants to have. Quarterback Matt Stafford's job should get even more fun this year with second-year wideout Titus Young developing into a legitimate deep threat. The receivers on this Lions' offense alone would cause any defense trouble no matter who the quarterback is. But, the Lions don't just have any old quarterback. They have Stafford, who is probably among the top five quarterbacks in the league depending on how you feel about Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. As long as Stafford's injury history doesn't reappear, the Lions should have one of the most explosive passing games in the league. The running game, however, is a bit of a question mark. Incumbent starting running back Jahvid Best is explosive, but has an injury track record. He only played six games last year and is on pace to be placed on the physically unable to perform list come the end of training camp. If he is, he will not be eligible to play in a game until week seven. In that time period, the Lions will have to rely on second-year running back Mikel LeShoure. But even LeShoure has injury problems. He sat out most of training camp with a hamstring injury and is a risk to get injured at any point in the season, not to mention the fact that he’s suspended for the first two games of the season. Overall, the Lions offense is explosive, but very susceptible to injuries. Look for at least one key player, most likely either Stafford or LeShoure, to suffer an injury at some point in the season.

So why aren't the Lions a lock to contend for the Super Bowl? Because there are lingering concerns on the defense and the team's overall discipline is lacking, that's why. Let's start with the defense. The Lions defense ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed and 23rd in rushing yards allowed in the 2011 season. That's how the Lions found themselves down by two scores to such opponents as the Raiders, the Cowboys, and the Vikings. In the latter two games, the Lions put together unprecedented 20 point comebacks to win. Although it's a good thing that they won, it's an alarming sign that they were in those holes in the first place. The Lions also had the fortune of scoring five defensive touchdowns, a phenomenon that almost surely will not happen again. If you go back and look at their 2011 schedule, you'll see that it isn't a stretch to suggest that they could've been 7-9 or 6-10.Their playmaking secondary and opportunistic pass rush put the Lions in position to win games that they had no business winning.  Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril anchor the Lions' front seven that recorded 41 sacks in 2011, so we know that the Lions' defense can get after the quarterback. However, what worries me about the Lions’ defense is that it lives and dies by the big play. If you re-watch their 2011 playoff game against the Saints, you'll see that not once did the Lions ever rattle Drew Brees. Their defense has no reliable way to force three and outs from the offense. The Lions faced 201 drives in the 2011 season, tied for first in the NFL with the Jets. However, they only forced .388 punts per drive, 24th in the NFL. That leads to a tired defense and a lot of points as the game goes on. In addition, the Lions were the third most penalized team in the league in 2011. They also racked up more unsportsmanlike conduct penalties than any other team in the league. Unless they iron out discipline issues, they are going to continue to get eaten alive by the true playoff contenders in the NFC. However, there is too much talent accumulated on this team for them to not make the playoffs. This is a quarterback dominated league, and they have one of the best. My prognosis for their season is a wild-card berth, a wild-card round win, and a loss in the divisional round to the Packers.

                  

7: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

I'm not as sold on San Francisco as everybody else is. I mean, isn't it even a little suspicious that they're suddenly the second-best team in the NFC this quickly? How did they do in one year what it takes most teams 5 to 8 years to do? Turnover ratio. The 49ers ranked first in the league in turnover ratio at +28. The Niners have Alex Smith as their quarterback, so their chances of repeating or exceeding that +28 mark are just about zero. As their turnover ratio goes down, there should be a corresponding effect in the wins column. And then there is the issue of injuries. The Niners were by all accounts the healthiest team in the league last year, suffering virtually no major injuries. We haven't even made it out of the preseason as of the date I am writing this and both LaMichael James and Brandon Jacobs are already out with significant ailments. And we all know that the Niners dodged a bullet with Frank Gore in 2011. Of Gore's seven seasons in the National Football League, he's only been able to play all 16 games in two of them. So history would suggest that it's not a matter of if Gore misses a game or two, but when. Simply put, I do not trust Frank Gore's knee. And if history is repeated with regards to his injury track record, neither should anybody else. On the defensive side of the ball, 2011 team sack leader Aldon Smith could be another injury concern. Smith suffered a major hip injury in the preseason opener against the Vikings and is reportedly still feeling discomfort. The fact that the Niners are rushing him back before their regular-season opener is a mistake that might compound Smith's injury troubles. Overall, the Niners have already suffered more significant injuries in just the preseason than they did in the entirety of last year. Historically, how healthy or unhealthy a team is largely comes down to luck. In 2010, the healthiest team in the league was the Chicago Bears. We saw their luck swing back the other way when Jay Cutler got hurt during the stretch run of 2011. There's every indication that the same thing is happening to the Niners. It won't necessarily preclude them from being a good team, but it will seriously impede their ability to get back to where they were last season.

Moreover, I see pieces of other teams in this year's Niners. A team that's complete except for its quarterback -- hey, that reminds me of the Jets circa 2010. An all-new section of the team, the receiving corps, has to learn an extremely intricate game plan that is sometimes described as its own language (the West Coast offense) and isn’t particularly the best system for this group of players. Wow, doesn't that kind of sound like the Eagles' secondary if you replace "West Coast offense" with "zone coverage scheme”? In 2011, the Niners made an unprecedented seven win jump in the standings due to a fantastic record in close games and an easy schedule. Hey, doesn't that remind you of the 2007 Browns, the 2008 Dolphins, the 2008 Titans, the 2006 Jets, the 2007 Redskins, or the 2009 Bengals? Nope? Not even a little bit? Plus, I think everybody's forgetting that Alex Smith is their quarterback. As much mental progress as he has made, it's a pretty tough sell to convince me that a team with him at the helm can make the Super Bowl.

Now, don't think I'm just saying all this because I don't like the Niners. I really do. I want to see a team that relies on defense and time of possession win the Super Bowl. I want somebody to buck the trend of high powered offenses and prove that they can achieve success differently. And the Niners definitely have more than enough talent on their defense to be taken seriously. Star big men Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman anchor a front seven that went through half of 2011 before allowing their first rushing touchdown. That's not just a good defense, that's a historic defense.The Niners also have Justin Smith, a candidate for the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year award. Smith has 72 1/2 sacks in his 11 year career, and is an integral piece of the Niners' philosophy, which is centered around time of possession, turnovers, and ability to dominate the line of scrimmage. For the most part, the Niners have the personnel to implement and sustain this philosophy. The Niners will probably win their division and make it to the playoffs, where they're almost assured to get past Wild Card weekend. However, what you saw in 2011 was pretty much the perfect scenario for the 49ers. And if I know anything about the NFL, it's that lightning doesn't strike twice.

               6: HOUSTON TEXANS

   It’s scary to think what could have happened had injuries not felled the 2011 Texans. Check out the highlights of their lineup and think about how monstrous they could have been if not for injuries. Well, at least I hope you check them out and don’t close the book. Even though nobody would blame you if you’re tired of reading predictions about things that have already happened (and probably false predictions at that), I at least hope that they’re somewhat entertaining and informative.

   They had Matt Schaub (Among the top 10 quarterbacks in the league) Time Out: This was a legitimate statement that could be made without fear of being carted off to an asylum before the season started., Arian Foster (Top 3 running back, could have gone over 1,500 yards had he been healthy the whole year), Andre Johnson (Top five wide receiver), a front seven featuring J.J. Watt, Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing and Mario Williams (I have to take a quick break to digest how good that would have been), and Jonathan Joseph in the secondary (top ten cornerback). That’s a lot of uses of the word “top.” Name me another team that would have been so good in so many areas. They had a great passing game, an unbelievable rushing attack, a phenomenal pass rush, and a secondary that wasn’t too bad. There’s no way that anybody can convince me that a healthy Texans team couldn’t have won the Super Bowl in 2011. You’re darn right I just used a double negative while describing the Houston Texans.

As it turns out, the best laid plans of Gary Kubiak could get kinda messed up by injuries. Matt Schaub was declared out for the season before Week 12 with a Lisfranc injury, leaving the Texans’ playoff hopes in the hands of Matt Leinart. And just as quickly as the Texans talked themselves into Leinart (who I genuinely feel bad for), he went down with an injury. Soon after that, the Texans found themselves in the position of starting third string QB T.J. Yates on the road in Baltimore during the playoffs. I think we all knew how that was going to turn out. As if that weren’t enough, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and Mario WIlliams played 25 of a possible 48 games. The Texans did not have a single game last year where they had their best possible lineup out on the field. I’d argue that no team had worse luck with injuries except for maybe the Chiefs.

   The injuries were problem number one for the Texans. Problem number two was that Williams and DeMeco Ryans had to leave in order for Houston to fit under the salary cap. Plus, Andre Johnson may or may not be past his prime as he rapidly approaches his 32nd birthday and his  third hamstring injury. We also have no idea how Schaub is going to rebound after the Lisfranc injury. I also had no idea what a Lisfranc injury was before I googled it. The point is, we don’t know how the injuries and the loss of two starting linebackers are going to affect the Texans. They could very well still be Super Bowl contenders, but there are a lot of questions regarding injuries that need to be definitively answered first.

   With all that said, they’re easily going to win the division. The AFC South, the toughest division in football five years ago, is now by far the easiest. If a lot of things go horribly wrong for the Texans and Jake Locker turns into Aaron Rodgers 2.0, then maybe the Titans have a chance. However, I severely doubt that. Unless Andre Johnson’s production falls off a cliff or Andre Johnson himself falls off a cliff, the Texans are still going to have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league. Their offense ranked 13th in the league in 2011 and they were only getting half of a year from Schaub, three quarters of a year from Foster, and half the year from Andre Johnson. There’s every indication that they’re going to be in the top ten in 2012. With all the attention being paid to the offense, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that their pass rush is still going to be amazing. Either in 2012 or 2013, J.J. Watt is going to be among the top ten pass rushers in the league, if not top five. He really carried the Texans’ defense in the 2011 playoffs with 3.5 sacks and one interception returned for a touchdown in two games. Also, nobody seemed to notice that Connor Barwin racked up 11.5 sacks in 2011. Or that guys like Brooks Reed and Antonio Smith were coming up with clutch sacks. With all the talent on this team, there is no conceivable way that they miss the playoffs barring injury. However, they’ll need to have everybody back and 100% from last year to contend for a Super Bowl.

               5: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

   Yep, the most reliable team in football will be chasing a ring once again this season. The Steelers and the Patriots are the two teams that you can always count on contending year after year so long as their philosophies remain intact. For the Pats, it’s Tom Brady and their merciless no huddle offense. For the Steelers, that identity comes in the form of a monstrous front seven that opposing quarterbacks should be terrified of. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is the best in the business at rushing the passer and leaving younger quarterbacks confused with a variety of unique looks on defense (He practically invented the “amoeba” defense: the one where there are no down linemen). That might be especially useful this season, considering the fact that the Steelers have six opponents on their schedule that start quarterbacks in either their first or second season. And that’s not even counting when Mark Sanchez comes to town in Week 2 (he practically needs directions from the sideline to the field at this point) and Nick Foles in Week 5 (I’m operating under the assumption that Michael Vick is going to be injured). The Steeler defense is absolutely stacked, just like they are every year. Even worse for opposing offenses, this defense is full service. A lot of the Steelers’ key guys can both stop the run and cause chaos in the passing game. Troy Polamalu is as multi-dimensional of a safety as you’ll ever see. James Harrison ranks fourth in stuff percentage against the run and is one of the best that I’ve ever seen at anticipating the quickest route to the ballcarrier, whether it’s the running back or the quarterback. Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley are also a factor in both the running and passing games. The only things that might be a problem for 2011’s number one defense are turnovers. The Steelers ranked 29th in turnover ratio, notching a pitiful -13 in that department. Generating momentum changing plays on defense and finding a way to make up for recently retired linebacker James Farrior’s production are going to be the two principal problems for the Steelers’ defense this year. However, with all the experience on both the defense and the coaching staff, I have a hard time believing that either one is going to have a significant impact on the Steelers’ season.

   The Steelers’ offense, on the other hand, has some question marks. It’s still a playoff-caliber offense, but it’s not as rock solid as the defense is. Concerns about the offensive line persist, especially after rookie guard David DeCastro could be done for the year with a torn MCL. The injury to DeCastro leaves the Steelers with no above average offensive linemen besides center Maurkice Pouncey. Even with all the injuries to the line last year, the fact that they started four different left tackles throughout the season is definitely not a good sign. It’s a good thing that Ben Roethlisberger is built the way he is; otherwise his career might have ended two years ago behind that line. In addition to the offensive line, nobody is quite sure what’s going on at running back. Rashard Mendenhall has recently been removed from the Physically Unable to Perform List and is now back in the mix to get a significant number of carries over the course of the season, if not at the beginning of the season. Even if Mendenhall comes back, neither he nor third string running back Jonathan Dwyer is the type of back that is going to scare defenses. The running game is clearly taking a backseat to Ben Roethlisberger’s arm. Speaking of the passing game, I'm watching out for Antonio Brown this year. He logged over 1,000 yards in 2011 and might take over the number one role from Mike Wallace due to the latter’s lengthy offseason holdout. Brown and Wallace provide Roethlisberger with two speedy wide receivers that can stretch the field, which in turn allows Mendenhall and Dwyer to run between the tackles. I’d expect the offense to experience some growing pains in the beginning of the season while new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s scheme is put into place, followed by a rebound to their usual level of production. This Steelers team retained the core personnel that led them to three Super Bowl appearances in the last seven years, and I’m very optimistic about their chances to be in the running for a fourth.

                 SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS (4-1)

                   4: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

   Yep, last year’s chronic underachievers make it to the NFC Conference Championships in my preview. Having watched their offense throughout the preseason, I came to the conclusion that the quarterback position may not be that much of a problem any more. Why? Because Nick Foles is really good. Time Out: Nope. Let me preface this by saying that this is only pre-season. Michael Vick should and will be the starter if healthy, and the argument for Foles as the QB of the future has little substance until he gets some regular season snaps. With all that said, he definitely outperformed my expectations. In the days following the combine, I was evaluating some of the late round quarterbacks in hopes that the Jets would do the smart thing and take one. A lot of articles that I read around that time hammered Foles’ accuracy and forty yard dash time (5.14, the worst at the combine). His NFL.com draft profile says that he, “struggles with accuracy at times” and, “there are times when the ball can get away from him on deep throws." However, Foles has shown almost none of those problems so far in the preseason. He’s going to be a fantastic option for the Eagles when Michael Vick misses a game. Notice that I didn’t say “if.” Vick is an explosive runner and occasionally a good deep thrower, but everything about him screams “INJURY!!!”. He extends plays much longer than he should, he has never been entirely comfortable staying in the pocket, and his 6’0, 215 pound frame was clearly not built to withstand the hits he takes on an everyday basis. Even if the Eagles have to do without Vick, LeSean McCoy will ensure that the Eagles’ offense is as explosive as ever. McCoy was the 2011 league leader in broken tackles (50), led the league in rushing touchdowns (17), and finished fourth in rushing yards (1,309). He has fantastic acceleration, great anticipation for where his running lane is going to be, and an unbelievable juke move. Even though Andy Reid said that McCoy’s carries will be reduced to save him some wear and tear, he’s still going to see a lot of action both in the running game and catching screen passes. Speaking of catching passes, one of my two concerns about the Eagles’ offense this year is on the receiving corps. DeSean Jackson is now paid, but I don’t quite know why everybody is assuming that means an increase in his production. Logic would have dictated that he should have had a big contract year in 2011 because the history of almost every sport shows that an athletes’ biggest year is usually a contract year in their prime. That was not the case with Jackson. If he didn’t have a conventional contract year, then it’s kinda tough to predict what he’ll do when he gets a new contract. My second concern involves tackle Demetress Bell. He has struggled both in the preseason and in training camp; and if there ever were a team that couldn’t afford to have offensive line problems, it’s the Eagles. If Bell can’t get it together, the Eagles could be vulnerable to speed rushes. Since the Eagles play a schedule that has them going up against Jason Pierre-Paul, Brian Orakpo, and DeMarcus Ware twice a year, that seems somewhat relevant.

   The defense should have an easier time this year now that they have a full offseason to learn Juan Castillo’s system. The only problem there is the rush defense, which may or may not be solved by drafting Fletcher Cox. As you read back in the draft section (which I wrote about four months before this section: I can hardly remember it), I’m always going to be skeptical of defensive tackles. The rate of failure there is just too high. The Eagles are also going to need a linebacker to take over the duty of stopping the run this year. It could be Mychal Kendricks or Brandon Graham, but both of them have had relatively quiet pre-seasons. Time Out: Kids, if you learn one lesson from my failures, it’s this: NEVER OVERRATE PRESEASON. The secondary is still going to be fantastic this year, especially if the Eagles start running more man to man schemes. That would make all kinds of sense since it will both highlight Asomugha’s talents and free up one of the safeties to either rush the passer or help out with their rush defense. The Eagles finished 8-8 in 2011 because of an abysmal turnover margin (-14) and a terrible record in close games (2-5). Their winning percentage based on points scored/points allowed ratio, otherwise known as their Pythagorean Winning Percentage (read Bill Barnwell or go on footballoutsiders.com for a more complete explanation) added on almost three wins to the Eagles’ season, which would suggest that the total talent on this team more resembles an 11-5 squad instead of an 8-8 one. The Eagles closed out their 2011 season with four consecutive wins by a margin of almost twenty points per victory, which implies that they were just starting to find an identity towards the end of the year. All of this points to the conclusion that 8-8 was the absolute worst case scenario for the Eagles. And if their luck swings back the other way, which it tends to do in the NFL, the Eagles have enough talent to contend for a title this year.

               3: BALTIMORE RAVENS

   The Ravens almost made it to the Super Bowl before being Cundiffed (yes, I just made that word up). Had it not been for the last second heroics of Sterling Moore and the leg of Billy Cundiff, we would have had a rematch of the 2000 Super Bowl instead of the 2007 Super Bowl. No, I don’t think about it much.

   After a few years of contending with the Steelers, the Ravens finally leapfrogged over them to win the division for the first time since 2006. They beat the Steelers twice in 2011, both of them in emphatic fashion. They pulverized them in Week 1 by a score of 35-7 and beat them 23-20 on a last second touchdown pass to Torrey Smith in Week 9.  Part of the reason that the Ravens were able to have their breakout year was the fact that they finally had an offense to match their traditionally strong defense. I’m not going to say that Joe Flacco is a franchise QB, because he certainly isn’t. But he is a reliable quarterback who the Ravens can count on to not make mistakes, deliver in the clutch (eleven game winning drives in his career), and occasionally deliver a big play or two. That’s all the Ravens need him to do and that’s more than a few other teams can say about their quarterback. If the defense keeps allowing only 16.6 points per game, then Joe Flacco is absolutely competent enough to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback, especially if halfback Ray Rice stays healthy. Rice is the focal point of the Ravens’ offense and makes everybody else’s job ten times easier. He has recently signed a long term extension with Baltimore that will keep him there for at least a few more years. Rice logged 1,364 yards on 291 carries in 2011 and scored twelve touchdowns. And scouts didn’t think he was worthy of being drafted on the first day because they were worried about his lack of size (chuckles). His job might get a little bit tougher this year with the loss of all-pro left guard Ben Grubbs, but his stats shouldn’t drop off that much. As for the receiving corps, Torrey Smith looks like he’ll be taking over the number one receiver spot from Anquan Boldin. It’s probably for the best, since Boldin has always been a possession receiver. Smith is a one dimensional receiver who has fantastic speed on deep routes, but not much else. He’s practically no different than Lee Evans or Bernard Berrian. Look for a sharp decline in his stats once he hits his late twenties.

   For the seventeenth consecutive year, the heart and soul of the Baltimore defense is middle linebacker Ray Lewis. Lewis has quite literally everything that a team could possibly want out of a linebacker. He’s one of the smartest players in the league, is both a vocal leader and leader by example, has a knack for making big plays at the time when the Ravens most need them, and never seems to blow an assignment. Besides Tom Brady and Drew Brees, Ray Lewis is the only player that is truly the face of his franchise. In an NFL that places more and more of a premium on scoring, that’s a rarity for a defensive player. However, Lewis  is now 37 and Terrell Suggs has taken over the role of being the dominant pass rusher. Suggs has recently been taken off the Physically Unable to Perform list and might return as soon as Week 4 or so. Another great presence on the front seven is defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The Ravens run a 3-4 defense, and that kind of scheme always works best when you have a dominant defensive tackle. Ngata blends in with the Ravens’ defense and rarely gets to the quarterback or causes fumbles, but I’d argue that he’s the single most important player on the entire D. He always takes up two blockers, thereby creating gaps for linebackers like Suggs, Lewis, and Jameel McClain. The linebackers are always the playmakers in a 3-4 defense, and Ngata sets them up perfectly. Plus, he’s surprisingly quick for a defensive tackle and is always going to be a factor in the Baltimore run defense. We also can’t forget Ed Reed, who consistently comes up with big interceptions and covers large portions of the field better than just about every other safety in the league. By the way, 2012’s breakout cornerback could be Carry Williams. He was targeted over 100 times in 2011 and defended sixteen passes. I know that trying to predict who is going to have a big year in terms of interceptions and passes defended is a crapshoot, but I really like the potential that Williams has shown. If the Ravens remain as good as they were last year, this is without a doubt a Super Bowl Contender. However, the lack of an elite QB puts them behind these next two teams.

               2:GREEN BAY PACKERS

For quite possibly the most dominant team in the league, the Packers are surprisingly one dimensional. Think about it. They haven’t had a decent running back since Ahman Green. Their frequently maligned defense ranked dead last in the league in 2011 in total yards allowed, surrendering over two thousand more yards than the Steelers, who ranked first in that category. But none of that seems to matter because of one man.

Any conversation about the Green Bay Packers has to start and end with Aaron Rodgers. He is without question the best quarterback in the league as of August 30th, 2012, as well as the most fundamentally sound quarterback I have ever seen with the possible exception of Tom Brady. They’re 1-2 in some order, and nobody can convince me otherwise. Contrast the tape of Rodgers and any current QB not named Tom Brady or Drew Brees and you’ll see a lot of subtle differences that greatly differentiate him from Eli Manning or Matthew Stafford. Notice how he never fails to go through his progressions, and always goes through them in almost perfect accordance with his drop. If Rodgers takes three steps back, his eyes immediately go towards a slant route. When he gets to five, then he eyes a curl or maybe an out route (he throws the deep out better than anyone I’ve ever seen). When he reaches seven, his eyes then drift downfield towards the go or post route. This seems like something that should be quarterback 101, but you’ll notice that average quarterbacks tend to stare down one receiver the whole way. In my preview, I talked about how Philip Rivers seemingly goes through his progressions as though the deep route is his only choice, which leads to forced throws into areas that a quarterback shouldn’t throw to. I can’t remember the last time Aaron Rodgers made one of those throws. He’s also fantastic at throwing off of his back foot, which is another thing that a lot of quarterbacks can’t do. Put it all together and add great mobility and a computer-like knowledge of the West Coast Playbook, and you get a quarterback that is like no other that we’ve seen since John Elway.

Of course, Rodgers’ job seems pretty darn easy when he has such a fantastic array of wide receivers at his immediate disposal. Another advantage that Rodgers brings to the game is that every single guy that the defense brings in to cover the wide receivers is completely beatable. I’ve seen a lot of games where the nickel corner is struggling, but gets a big break because his mediocre coverage is offset by a quarterback’s lack of chemistry with that receiver or inability to throw a certain type of route. You do not have that luxury against Green Bay. The Packers’ receiving corps would go four deep even with an average QB, but Rodgers can turn any single receiver he likes in to an absolute killer with any kind of pass. The Packers need a big play? Awesome, Jordy Nelson and his 18.6 yards per catch aim to please. Need to move the chains? Hey, look, it’s all-pro wide receiver Greg Jennings. Need a red zone touchdown? Rodgers can throw a back shoulder fade (Week 1, 2011, first touchdown vs the Saints) or throw a quick spiral to Randall Cobb or Jermichael Finley. Need a- well, you get the point.

  The Packers allowed .5 less points per game than the Jets’ defense. Yep, the 32nd ranked defense in the league allowed less points per game than the 5th ranked defense. The Green Bay defense also logged 38 takeaways, tied for first in the league. Usually, the number of takeaways that a team has is a statistic that varies from year to year. However, this is not the case with the Packers’ defense.The Packers’ D has caused an average of 33.2 turnovers over the last five years, which is among the highest averages in the league over that timespan. The NFL isn’t so much revolving around the passing game as it is around the big play. Defenses are not getting worse, they are just changing their primary focus from causing three and outs on every possession to creating turnovers. No team embodies this new defensive movement more than the Packers. They can’t stop the pass and any quarterback worth half of his salary can march up and down the field on their undersized secondary. But if the Packers need a momentum changing turnover, the statistics show that they end up getting it more often than not. And in today’s NFL, where the uptick in passing also means an uptick in opportunities for a critical mistake to happen, that defense is able to thrive. Put that together with an explosive passing game, and the Green Bay Packers are more equipped to win in the 2012 NFL than any other team. Well, except for one of them...

           1: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

   You have no idea how much I hate this. But to put anyone else here can only be described as letting the wish take over the thought. The Patriots are the clear cut Super Bowl favorites. In fact, it’s not even close. How can anyone stop this offense? Not only does it feature some of the best talent in the league, but it also moves faster than any other offense in the league. The Patriots’ offense requires  ridiculously high football I.Q. and stamina to be able to keep up with because it runs out of the no huddle so frequently. It’s the only offense where you can see the writing on the wall before they’ve even gotten close to the end zone. If you watch this Patriot offense long enough, you can almost predict when they’re about to score a touchdown because the effects of the high speed offense on the opposing defense is very noticeable. Once the opposing head coach is struggling to get their personnel switched in time and the defense is starting to let up six or seven yards on every play, they might as well run back to the sidelines and save the agonizing process of drawing out a drive that seemingly has a foregone conclusion. This may sound dramatic, but watch what the Pats’ offense does the next time they start to pull away from a team. To me, the fact that Bill Belichick keeps finding players to put around Brady that have both the talent and knowledge to play on his offense is the most impressive thing about the New England Patriots.

Of course, it helps when a team has the personnel to execute that offense. Tom Brady is the fulcrum of the system, throwing for both a career high in yards and 39 touchdowns in 2011. A good scout could spend all day finding things to like about Brady. His footwork and release are both fantastic and lead to years like the one he had in 2010, where he only threw 4 interceptions. Not fourteen. Four. Take a moment and think about how insane that is. Some elite quarterbacks have single games where they throw four interceptions. Not Tom Brady. At least some of the credit for that is due to his receivers. Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez take part in an offensive scheme that has never been executed to this level of effectiveness. It’s absolutely unbelievable. What makes so many double tight end sets or dual running back systems fail is predictability. When another team attempts to emulate the Patriots with mediocre talent, as Minnesota is trying to do with Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, it’s going to fail. Not only are Rudolph and Carlson objectively worse than Gronkowski and Hernandez, but they’re also both big, blocking tight ends. They’re not going to scare anybody in the passing game. The Patriots won the lottery in the 2010 draft by finding two Pro Bowl caliber tight ends with different skill sets, yet some overlapping talent. Gronkowski is the freakishly athletic big man: a traditional tight end after a trip to Mark McGwire’s pharmacist. He can be utilized for run blocking and in either the deep or short passing game. Hernandez is the smaller, faster tight end that led the league in broken tackles by a receiver or TE in 2011. Add in deep threat Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker for one more year, and this gives Tom Brady endless options for what he can do with the football. He can have Lloyd and Gronkowski run deep routes and clear the safeties out, then have Welker and Hernandez run underneath patterns against linebackers who will be too slow to cover them one on one. Once the safeties commit to one of the underneath receivers, then Brady could throw it deep for Brandon Lloyd. I could write more than a couple of pages just listing all the options for Tom Brady in this offense, and that would be before I even get to the running backs. I have no earthly idea how the Pats are going to utilize Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and Olympic silver medalist Jeff Demps, but I’m terrified nevertheless. Yes, the Patriots have a silver medal winning track star on their roster. I’ve mentioned that I hate the Patriots, right?

   The real reason that the Patriots might be abjectly terrifying this year is because of their defense. It’s suddenly decent. Sure, their secondary is still an unadulterated piece of garbage that hasn’t gotten better since 2011. But, what about their front seven? Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Gary Guyton; isn’t that better than a lot of team’s front sevens? You think it’ll be easy to run on that? And if that weren’t enough, they play in a division with teams that feature three quarterbacks that range from average to Mark Sanchez. By my count, the Patriots have to play exactly two above average quarterbacks all year. They’re home games against Matt Schaub’s Texans and Neck Surgery Manning’s Broncos. Let the record show that Pats fans aren’t terrified of losing those games, unless Peyton Manning is the old Peyton Manning again. I’m not kidding when I say that the Patriots have a legitimate chance at going 16-0 again. They play the easiest schedule in the league, have a frighteningly good offense, and absolutely no competition from anybody in the AFC. Seriously, think of another team in the AFC that could match New England point for point. Absolutely nobody. So here is my Super Bowl Prediction. Packers-Patriots (*sobbing*). Patriots 35, Packers 17 (*smashing head against the wall*). Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady (I’d better step away from the computer quickly)

So that’s it for the retroactive NFL Preview. If you were bored to death by reading pre-season predictions that are probably all false by the time you read this, I apologize. I will fully admit, this is the most boring section in the book. But I hoped you at least found a few of the things I’ve observed interesting, and hopefully you now know a little more about each team. You know, for the one time you meet a person at a cocktail party that’s an Arizona Cardinals fan. But more seriously, this part of the book set the stage. This book is all about providing observations and analysis set against the backdrop of the 2012 season, and I can’t do that unless I remind you of what that backdrop was and how it relates to what it is when you read this book. Now, the off-season is over. I am wrapping up this section of the book on September first. The next section you read will be the first week in the 2012 season of the National Football League. And just writing that sentence gave me goosebumps.