Wild Card and Divisional Rounds

ames!? Come on. Just stick with me for a little while longer.

                      WILD CARD WEEKEND

Well, here we are. The NFL Playoffs begin in T minus six days and this book will enter its final phase. Yeah, I’m relieved too. I’m going to be using a little bit of a different format for the playoffs than I did for the season. There will only be two sections instead of three. The first will consist of me breaking down each game that week and offering picks, theories, background info, etc. As for the second section, remember when I said that I was going to shamelessly hijack Bill Simmons’ running diary format? Yep, I’m going to be doing a running diary of every single game, although most of that content is in the book. In return for stealing Bill’s intellectual property, I urge the fifteen people who will read this to go check out both his column and grantland.com. Oh, and one last thing. Some yardage values/time values in the running diaries might end up being a few yards/seconds off. Please disregard them. I’m too lazy to correct every instance of, “I said it was a 35 yard catch but it was actually a 37 yard catch.” Sorry about those.

      

VIKINGS AT PACKERS

Yes, it’s a late Christmas miracle. Or at least it should have been. Christian Ponder is the starting quarterback for a road playoff team. In case you didn’t catch that, Christian Ponder is the starting quarterback for a road playoff team. I should be ecstatic. I should be effusively thanking the football gods for essentially tossing me a freebie in an atmosphere where such gifts are few and far between. It’s the chance to assure myself a 1-0 start to the playoffs by taking the mighty Aaron Rodgers over Christian Ponder. Yet I don’t feel good about this game. The Packers are no longer as much of a shoo-in as I thought they’d be. In fact, I’m probably going to continue procrastinating on my English homework to hash this game out (sorry, Mr. Lapinski). Why? Because to bet against the Vikings would be akin to betting against the modern day Jim Brown.

Yep, I went there. I’m willing to say that Adrian Peterson is in the process of putting together the best Jim Brown impression that we’ll ever see. It’s not a comparison that should be made lightly, but there’s something about both Adrian Peterson and Jim Brown that simply transcends all of his peers. Both could be considered athletic freaks of nature that represented a monumental shift in the standard of their position. Brown was a completely new breed of running back, somebody that helped to pull the position out of the “three yards, cloud of dust, rinse and repeat” mentality, although he could pull off that routine better than anyone in his day. But he was one of the first players in his era to have the moves and the quickness that would classify him as somebody that could also succeed in the modern game. He was far more powerful than anyone who played against him and delighted in running over defenders. John Mackey remembers that Brown told him, “when someone tackles you, make sure they remember how much it hurts.”

Peterson is less revolutionary, but no less unique. Simply put, he is the compilation of almost every single physical trait that would go into the making of an ideal running back. He does the same things that Brown did in an era where defenses are bigger and faster. My favorite player of all time, Curtis Martin, even seconded the Peterson-Brown comparison by saying:

“Adrian Peterson’s ability performs well in any era. You can take it back to the 1930s. He can play in Jim Brown’s era and he can play today...... I’ll always think that Jim Brown and Barry Sanders were the greatest running backs ever, but I put Adrian Peterson in that category.”

That’s a guy who’s fourth on the all-time rushing list as well as a personal friend of Jim Brown’s paying homage to All Day Peterson. But enough about Peterson’s legacy: that debate was made for people with more football knowledge and perspective than I can offer at this time. All I know is that it would be absolutely mortifying to bet against this guy. Forget the rushing record, although coming up nine yards short of Eric Dickerson is impressive enough. The most impressive Adrian Peterson stat is his six yards per carry. Strictly by the numbers, if the Minnesota Vikings hand the ball off to Peterson, 2nd and 4 is the most likely outcome. Consider every time you’ve ever heard an announcer say, “the key to beating (insert QB here) is to get him in third and long situations.” AP almost guarantees that third and long never happens. That holds especially true against the Packers, a team that he has carved up to the tune of 199 yards and 210 yards in his two games against them this year. He has amassed a career mark of 5.54 yards per carry against the Packers, never mind the fact that this particular version of the Packers’ D (ranks 26th in yards per carry allowed) might be the weakest version he has seen so far in his career. All Christian Ponder needs to do is not blow the game for the Vikings, and he has already accomplished that just this past week. If Mark Sanchez can win four road playoff games in his career, then it’s totally conceivable that Christian Ponder can win one.

However, I don’t think it will be this one. First of all, common sense dictates that the Vikings will have to play from behind at some point because, well, it’s Aaron Rodgers vs Christian Ponder. Aside from their opening day overtime win over the Jaguars, the Vikes have not come back from any kind of deficit to win a game in 2012. In every other game where they’ve trailed by even one point, they have lost. Their entire style of play is predicated around getting a lead, handing the ball to Adrian Peterson thirty times per game, and having Christian Ponder convert a bunch of third and twos. We haven’t quite tested what happens when the whole “getting a lead” part goes awry. On passes that have traveled over ten yards in the air this year, Ponder has gone 45-112 with three touchdowns and eight interceptions. Eventually, the strategy of stacking the box and challenging every short pass has to work.

Besides, picking against the Packers would mean betting against Aaron Rodgers. The guy is just locked in right now. Over his last five games, he has averaged a QBR of 82.0. Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of Eric Dickerson’s rushing record overshadowed Rodgers’ performance in Green Bay’s Week 17 loss to Minnesota. Nobody will remember that Rodgers went 28-40 for 365 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. I feel like the Packers’ playoff loss to the Giants has tarnished our perception of Rodgers whether we acknowledge it or not. Just remember two things. One: the Packers committed tons of penalties and dropped all kinds of passes in that game. So it wasn’t totally Rodgers’ fault. And two, Aaron Rodgers is still the best quarterback in the league until definitively proven otherwise. We all crowned him as such after his amazing run in the 2010 playoffs. Now, we seem to forget that ever happened.

In just about every week of this season, I’ve repeatedly picked crazy upsets. Not this time. No, this time, I’m sticking with my preseason NFC Super Bowl Pick. I’m going with the league’s best quarterback at home in a place where home field advantage truly matters. It’s true that I’m betting against one of the greatest running backs in NFL history, but I’m also going against one of the worst starting QBs that the NFL has to offer. And not that this necessarily matters, but we’re also talking about one of the most successful franchises in NFL history against one of the most malaised franchises in NFL history. That has to count for something, right? I’m taking the Packers and if Adrian Peterson makes me look like a fool for doing so, then he is the MVP and should already have his bust made for the Hall of Fame inauguration in 2025. And even if the Vikes lose, that should probably happen anyways.

PACKERS 34, VIKINGS 20 W Packers 24, Vikings 10

      

SEAHAWKS AT REDSKINS

   Yep, it’s the year of the rookie quarterback. This matchup assures that either RG3 or Russell Wilson will play in the second round of the playoffs, something that very few people thought was possible before the season began. I have to imagine that this one will probably be decided by which rookie QB plays better because these two teams are so alike. In fact, one would be hard-pressed to find two teams in the league who are as similar as these two are.

Both teams’ offenses revolve around physically punishing RBs (Marshawn Lynch and Alfred Morris) that specialize in running between the tackles and pushing piles. Lynch and Morris both rank in the top five for DYAR: yards gained over replacement. Morris might be slightly better in between the tackles, but Lynch has more speed than Morris. Lynch has 5 yards per carry and Morris has 4.8. I’d say we’re pretty even with the RBs. I might have to give a slight edge to Washington on the running game front simply because RG3’s running is a much bigger part of the Redskins’ offense than Russell Wilson’s running is for Seattle. Wilson is a terrific scrambler that usually runs when a conventional passing play breaks down, but he doesn’t have the raw speed or acceleration to run a zone read option offense like RG3 does. Wilson is a scrambling QB that can run if forced to. RG3 is far more run-oriented and thus provides a huge boost to Washington’s ground game.

   Next we have to look at the lines. No, not the betting line (although I’m looking at that too so I can talk Ray, Matt, and Liam into gambling on the playoffs with me.) The offensive and defensive lines. You always have to watch out for teams with bad lines because the more physical team will usually win in the playoffs. That’s how the Giants beat the Pats twice. They generated more push at the line of scrimmage on offense and were able to shrink Tom Brady’s pocket on defense. It’s going to be even more important in this game since we have two teams that are predicated around dominating the line of scrimmage with power runs. Unfortunately, the stats aren’t making my job easy. The two teams are within six places of each other in most important defensive line statistics. DVOA, Adjusted Sack Percentage, and second level yards allowed per play are just a few of the stats that these teams are virtually neck and neck in. The teams are also virtually identical on the offensive line, where they are once again within six spots of each other in every statistical category that is listed above. So we know that both teams can both hold onto a lead and prevent the other team from holding onto a lead. We’re pretty much even up front.

   And pretty much everything else is even. The Seahawks are the best team in the league when they’re playing at home, but they’re not playing at home. They’ve beaten the Niners, the Patriots, and the Packers (cough, cough) at home and have lost to the Lions, Cardinals, and Dolphins on the road. Both coaches are aggressive risk-takers that haven’t made many questionable coaching decisions this year. Washington hit Dallas silly with complex zone coverage schemes and linebacker stunts, but that’s more liable to confuse a pass-first team like Dallas than a run-first team like Seattle. One of the reasons why Alfred Morris is able to run the ball so effectively is because of RG3’s ability to throw the deep ball and run outside the tackles. Enter Seattle’s defense, which is ranked third in DVOA against the pass and runs a Cover 3 that allows them to drop an extra safety into the box. The safety that will most likely be dropping into said box is Kam Chancellor, only one of the best run defending safeties in the league. Things would be radically different if Richard Sherman or Brandon Browner were still serving their suspensions, but they’re not. The semi-unstoppable force has met the difficult to move object.

So that leaves two areas where these teams differ significantly. The first is special teams. Always look out for the teams that have an especially good/bad kicker or especially good/bad coverage teams. They will always rear their ugly head in some way. Come playoff time, Rich Eisen’s observation that punters are people too is validated. And unfortunately for the Redskins, Sav Rocca is 29th in net punting average and averages three yards per punt less than Seattle’s John Ryan. So on average, the Seahawks’ defense will come on to the field with their opponent thee yards further away from the end zone than the Redskins’ defense will. If your team has ever had a shaky punter or kicker, you know that nothing derails a team faster than a shanked punt or a field goal that’s missed from under 40 yards. Always take that into consideration when you look at a playoff game.

And then we get to the QBs. With rookie QBs in their first playoff games, coaches will generally try to dial the playbook back to what it was in the beginning of the season. At least that’s the generalization that I’m going to make based on my hazy recollection of Mark Sanchez’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s first playoff games. For the Seahawks, that means a steady diet of Marshawn Lynch and tons of moving pockets for Wilson. It’s going to be a conservative offense that will try to grind out the win four yards at a time. Washington might end up going back to the offense that they ran in Week 1. Lots of concepts that RG3 recognizes from his Baylor days, maybe some wide receiver screens, a heaping scoop of zone read plays, and perhaps a shot or two downfield. Their objective is going to be confusing the Seahawks’ linebackers so Robert Griffin can operate outside the pocket, where he’s most dangerous. If the Seahawks can keep him between the tackles and force him to scramble away from defenders, then that’s when the opportunity for fumbles comes in. RG3 has fumbled 12 times and has only lost 2 of them, so that fumble luck is bound to run out at some point. In the playoffs against a well balanced defense seems like a logical point for that to happen.

In the playoffs, every conceivable weakness will be exposed at some point. So naturally, it would make sense to choose the most complete team that has an identity. Washington still has some work to do in the secondary if they’re going to take that next step. The Seahawks might already be there. This game is going to go back and forth, but it’s going to come down to one play. It will either be a key turnover, a shanked punt, or a blown coverage. Time Out: Or a debilitating knee injury. That too. And the statistics show that Seattle has the upper hand in all of those categories.

SEAHAWKS 23, REDSKINS 20 (OT) W Seahawks 24, Redskins 14

      

BENGALS AT TEXANS

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Remember when the Texans were 11-1 and they played the Pats in the game of the year? Good times. Unfortunately for them, that all went down the drain fairly quickly. Once again, the Texans were unable to stay healthy throughout an entire season. Linebacker Brian Cushing went down against the Jets in Week 5 with a torn ACL. So the Texans played on without their best tackler, run defender, and play caller on defense. Other than that, he was just your run of the mill linebacker. Ace slot corner Brice McCain has been gone since Week 13 with a broken foot. He might have been a little bit of a help against, say, Wes Welker or even T.Y. Hilton. Brooks Reed’s status for this game is being described as “touch and go” by Gary Kubiak, which at this point aptly describes the entire Texans’ team. Jonathan Joseph has been on and off the field and at varying levels of effectiveness due to a groin injury. Even reserve corner Alan Ball, a guy they never would have considered putting in the starting lineup unless it were in dime packages, is questionable for this game. So that leaves Kareem Jackson and Brandon Harris as the top two healthy corners. Fantastic. A.J. Green might as well already have two touchdowns. In order to stop pass oriented teams, the Texans’ pass rush must constantly be in the backfield on play after play. If J.J. Watt or Connor Barwin doesn’t at least get in the QBs face, then the odds are in favor of a wide receiver becoming uncovered. Passing is predominantly how leads are won and lost, so one would assume that the Bengals won’t necessarily have trouble taking a lead early in the game. The number one complaint with the Texans? They can’t play from behind.

Houston is a ground and pound team. It’s a cliche, a crutch for any broadcaster to lean on, and the phrase that Rex Ryan repeated over and over until people believed in the Jets all neatly rolled into one. However, it’s the truth. The Texans are predicated on working Arian Foster and Ben Tate into the game plan early and often with plenty of stretch plays and one-cut runs. This forces the defense to quickly flow to the strong side in order to stop them before they makes that cut into a backside gap. Once those runs are firmly established, Houston then uses a ton of normal play action and misdirected play action rollouts to punish defenses who flow too quickly. Tight end screens are another tactic that Houston employs pretty liberally in its offensive playbook. However, this is all predicated on getting a lead or at least remaining close. If the Texans are down 24-14 in the fourth quarter, then most opponents won’t be scared by Arian Foster. One of the biggest principles that Football Outsiders always preaches is that running is often the result of a team winning, and not the cause. The Texans are proof of that. A lead or a close game lets them utilize their team’s strong points: Foster and all of the subtleties that a successful Foster lets the Texans execute. A deficit exposes their weakest points: an inability to throw the football.

The Texans also might have some trouble when Cincy brings pass rushers. In his last three games, Schaub has posted a total QBR of 47.3 against five or more rushers. Schaub also hasn’t faced a pass rusher quite like Geno Atkins all season long and it’s not as if he had fantastic pocket presence in the first place. Ever since that brutal stretch in November where the Texans played nine quarters in the span of four or five days, Schaub just hasn’t looked right. He’s missing guys who are wide open, he seems hesitant to throw the football, and his deep throwing accuracy seems to be all but gone. It even got to the point where Bill Simmons openly wondered on his podcast whether Schaub is hurt and the Texans just aren’t telling the general public. Since this is a QB driven league, to pick the Texans would be to give a week-long vote of confidence to Schaub. Considering his play so far and the fact that Cincy’s defense has registered the highest adjusted sack rate in the league, I find it hard to feel totally safe in picking the Texans. If they commit a turnover and go down 7-0 or even 10-0 early, the Arian Foster safety blanket will be taken away and Schaub will have no choice but to consistently throw the football against the blitz.

Don’t forget that the teams who get upset in the playoffs are rarely, if ever, the teams that everybody thinks will be ousted. That’s what makes an upset an upset. And from what I can gather from the few analysts who have submitted their picks so far, most people are predicting a game that won’t go much differently than last year. Bill Simmons pointed out that, “the Bengals haven’t gotten better” since their last playoff loss to Houston. As much as I like Bill Simmons, I have to disagree with him here. The Bengals have forced the second most turnovers in the AFC and have scored three more points per game on offense this year. Plus, they enter this game with their starters rested. That’s an advantage they didn’t have in 2011. But it’s not just about Cincy getting better. The Texans have gotten worse since last year and since a month ago. Football Outsiders’ writer Rivers McCown, an ardent Houston fan, asserts that besides J.J. Watt’s breakout year and Kareem Jackson’s improved play, the defense has gotten much worse since 2011. Injuries and a one-dimensional offense have taken their toll. I’ve never seen a team play so differently in games that they win versus games that they lose. The Texans have a set formula for winning the game- run Foster and Tate early, get into the opposing backfield often, and only let Matt Schaub make high percentage throws. The Vikings, Pats, and Colts have disrupted that formula over the past couple weeks by taking the lead early in the game and the Texans just haven’t been able to adapt. And if there’s one thing that the playoffs aren’t kind to, it’s teams that can’t adapt.

BENGALS 28, TEXANS 20 L Texans 19, Bengals 13

      

COLTS AT RAVENS

You all know that Football Outsiders has been a huge help to this book. In fact, they should probably be receiving 20% of the proceeds. I trust most things that their statistics show because they have often turned out to be correct. And their end of the season DVOA rankings show that the Colts are the fourth worst playoff team since 1990. Not only that, but they have the lowest single season DVOA for both an 11-5 team AND a 10-6 team. In other words, their -16.0% DVOA, good for 25th in the league, is lower than the DVOA of every team that finished 10-6 or better since 1990. Wait, I’m not done crapping on the 2012 Colts. Their point differential is -30. That’s right, they went 11-5 despite being outscored by a total of 30 points over the course of the season. Their Pythagorean Wins statistic, which bases win-loss records purely on points scored vs points allowed, is absolutely dismal for a playoff team. They have only 7.2 Pythagorean Wins, which would put them just behind such juggernauts as the Chargers, Panthers, Bucs, and Saints. Plus, check out who they’ve gotten to play over the course of the season. Tennessee twice (won both games by less than a touchdown), the Jaguars twice (split the series), the Jets (they were crying for uncle after a 35-9 loss. No, seriously, they were beaten by the freaking Jets.), the Bills (won by a touchdown), the Lions (won on the last play), Cleveland (won a close game), and Kansas City (won a close game). That’s nine games against teams who own a pick in the top ten spots of the draft. Something tells me that the Giants would have killed to have that kind of schedule. Their best game this entire season was this past week against a Texans team that was in a total free fall (free fallin’, now I’m fre-SHUT UP ANDREW! Sign number 1,539 that this book needs to end soon: Too many lapses into Tom Petty). Also, remember that a good record in close games is a classic indicator of possible regression because it’s a stat that has been almost totally random over the years. The Colts have a 9-1 record in close games during the 2012 regular season. I would totally buy the, “Indy has a better record in these situations than everyone else because of Andrew Luck” argument, but most of their defense is absolute garbage. They ranked dead last in DVOA against the run and 27th in DVOA against the pass. So if we were to go just according to the numbers, they would be scoring about as many points as they would give up in crunch time and it’s totally unclear how they would stop anybody’s four minute drill. 9-1 in close games with that defense isn’t at least a little dubious?

The main case for picking the Colts in this game would be the whole Chuckstrong movement. It kills me to pick against the Colts because I hate rooting against feelgood stories. It almost feels like I’m watching Miracle just to root for the Soviet hockey team. I’m gonna be wearing my Chuckstrong t-shirt for the entirety of this game and perhaps the entirety of Wild Card Weekend. However, the Ravens might have one-upped the Colts even in the intangibles category. Ray Lewis, the face of the Baltimore Ravens for seventeen years, will be retiring at the end of this season. He told teammates and members of the press that this is his “last ride.” His impact on the Ravens was so significant that we might start referring to the “post-Lewis” Ravens just as we refer to the post-Elway Broncos. I find it hard to believe that the Ravens are going one and done with Ray Lewis potentially coming back from injury in his last trip to the playoffs. Sports, especially football,  have a way of providing fitting conclusions. A team with a rookie QB going into Baltimore and ending the Ravens’ season in the first round doesn’t seem like a fitting end for Ray Lewis’ career. He simply won’t allow it to happen. One does not simply get their defensive leader and field general (more imposing way of saying play-caller) back for a home playoff game and then lose that game. It feels like the Colts’ win over the Texans was their ultimate victory. The Texans are the division champions and Indy is just a plucky young upstart that put one over on them. It was a fantastic win that was made sweeter by the fact that Chuck Pagano was there and it’s hopefully one of many to come for the Colts. But it feels like they’ve already reached their 2012 emotional high. Because of Ray Lewis’ announcement, the Ravens are going to hit their mental and emotional peak for this game.

Remember when I laid out the two scenarios where emotion could swing this game in the last chapter? I purposely picked this game last; on a Friday, just to see what the public was picking and how that might influence things. Despite all of that evidence against the Colts and the fact that they’re 7.5 point underdogs, ESPN’s fan poll shows that 60% of people are going with Indy straight up. That’s NEVER, EVER a good sign. Call it my renowned “4/40” rule: if a team that is an underdog of four or more points garners 40% or more of the popular vote in a straight-up picking contest (as opposed to against the spread), you should sprint like Usain Bolt towards the favorite unless there is a drop-dead fantastic reason to choose the underdog. And I mean a “the favored team ate Stuckey’s hot dogs before the game and got food poisoning; nobody knows about it except for you” level of good reason. As this game draws closer and closer, I can see that my bold prediction might have been correct. Indy had an impressive showing in Week 17, everybody is jumping on their bandwagon, and Ray Lewis is probably already pissed. This is not ending well for Indy.

RAVENS 38, COLTS 17 (Don’t worry, Chuck and Luck. Your time is fast approaching. Chuckstrong). W Ravens 24, Colts 9

WILD CARD WEEKEND

4:17: We are T minus thirteen minutes from the kickoff of Texans-Bengals. I am joined by my faithful dog Roscoe and two delicious chicken quesadillas that I just microwaved. I also have ten dollars down on a Cincy upset. You know what they say: it’s never a bad time to needlessly lose money. Actually, nobody says that.

4:26 As I’m typing this, the Vikings still have no idea who their starter is: Christian Ponder or Joe Webb. I’d actually be terrified of Joe Webb: much like Adrian Peterson, he always seems like he could rip off a 60 yard touchdown run at any time. Unlike Adrian Peterson, the ratio of those plays to piddling ground balls is about 1:15. OK, maybe I’m not that terrified.

4:30 We’re joined by Mike Mayock and Dan Hicks for our game tonight. Hicks says that J.J. Watt might have had the greatest season by a defensive end in the history of the league. Can’t disagree with that. The guy is just a physical freak.

4:34 Good news: NBC dumped their football intro song for the early playoff game. You know, the one that they hope viewers under 40 don’t recognize as “I Hate Myself For Loving You.”

4:36 HEEEEERE WE GOOOOOO!!!!!

4:38 Great start for Houston’s offense: three and out and punting from just short of the 20 yard line. Fortunately for Houston, Cincy’s offense can’t do much better. Defensive struggle for the first few minutes: that plays into Houston’s hands.

4:45 First positive play: Schaub pass over the middle to Daniels for 17 yards and a first down to the 24 yard line. Linebacker Rey Maualuga was just frozen on a little hip shake from Daniels. Foster reels off a fifteen yard run right afterwards to put the Texans at the 40.

4:47 REVERSE!! Keyshawn Martin runs for fifteen yards with no Bengal in sight for the first ten. Cincy was caught totally out of position because they overpursued the play-action fake. Texans now around the 30 and picking on Maualuga.

4:49 Drive stalls after an incomplete crossing route that fell off of Owen Daniels’ hands. He was open because, once again, he crossed in front of Maualuga. 48 yard field goal puts the Texans up 3-0.

4:54 Thank God that New Normal is coming back on Tuesday. I couldn’t have gotten up in the morning otherwise.

4:55 Big run from BenJarvus Green-Ellis puts the Bengals on their own 45. The ensuing play is a screen pass that loses six yards because Connor Barwin recognized it and peeled off of his blitz to go cover it. Impressive play from Barwin.

4:57 First sack from J.J. Watt. Watt and Antonio Smith ran crossing rush patterns and Watt slid right under the center’s arms. Bengals have to punt.

4:59 And 1600 Penn is debuting on Tuesday as well. You know, because one awful network comedy isn’t enough. We just need a “Go On” commercial and an “Animal Practice” commercial to complete the grand slam.

5:02 The Texans are already driving and across the Bengals’ 45. The first quarter is almost done and the Bengals’ pass rush is virtually MIA.

5:03 A pass interference penalty puts the Texans just outside the red zone. The  Bengals’ LBs have occasionally attempted to cover Owen Daniels. Repeat: occasionally.

5:07 Texans 3, Bengals 0 at the end of the first quarter. Schaub just ran a QB sneak to pick up his first rushing first down of the entire season. That’s another reason why I didn’t feel comfortable picking with Schaub: some cases of erosion move faster. Cut to Schaub throwing for 400 yards and 4 TDs as I nod sadly.

5:12 Shayne Graham converts another field goal as the Texans’ drive stalls. 6-0 Houston.

5:17 Cincy is now across the Texans’ 40 after a 12 yard run by Green-Ellis. He’s had two pretty nice runs so far and Cincy’s run blocking has been pretty solid. Holes have been open for Green-Ellis so far.

5:19 Bengals are punting again? That doesn’t sound like the Bengals I know.

5:22 GAME CHANGE!!! Schaub throws an out route short and late. Leon Hall cuts in front of it, picks it, and then takes it back the other way. And that, my friends, is Matt Schaub during his last four games in a nutshell. 7-6, Bengals.

5:28 Foster picks up a first down for the Texans with two big runs. Great blocking so far by the Houston O-Line. He juked Maualuga out of his shoes on the first of those two runs. Rey Maualuga: Least Valuable Player so far. And as I type this, the Texans just gained another first down on a shallow cross in front of Maualuga, who is injured after the play. Wow, now I just feel like a jerk for making fun of him.

5:31 Wait for it.... keep waiting....

5:31 You knew it was coming.....

5:31 DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!!!

5:32 Foster puts the Texans on the 25 yard line with a nice 15 yard run. He was initially held up at the left side of the line, but then he cut back towards the tiniest space in the A-Gap and accelerated through it. Well done on his part. Houston is eating Cincinnati’s lunch in every statistical category except the scoreboard.

5:35 The Texans are abusing Cincy with shallow crosses. Cincy’s linebackers creep up to the line: Daniels runs right by them for a 15 yard gain. Cincy’s linebackers drop back: Daniels stops in front of them and plants his foot in the turf. Texans are forced to settle for yet another field goal with 2:19 left in the second quarter when Andre Johnson drops a shallow out route. The score is 9-7, Texans.

5:39 And we STILL don’t know who the QB is for the Vikings. This totally isn’t a bad sign at all. Please don’t forget that this is the franchise who didn’t submit their draft pick on time in consecutive years. Wouldn’t it be just like them to forget to name a starting QB? At this point, it might just be best to eschew a starting QB and go wildcat on every play with Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart. Throw in Joe Webb once in awhile for variety. Come on, what would make you more scared as a Packers fan; Christian Ponder as a regular starting QB or the 2011 Broncos’ offense being run with Joe Webb and Adrian Peterson?

5:46 Bengals almost across midfield and facing 3rd and 8. A.J. Green has been suspiciously quiet. Jonathan Joseph has been jamming him, shadowing him all over the field, and generally refusing to let him breathe.

5:47 All of these Papa John’s commercials have gotten me thinking: is there a consistently worse pizza place than Papa John’s? Every time I eat it, I feel like there’s a rock in my stomach thirty minutes later. But thanks anyways for the half-priced stomach rocks with anchovies, Papa John’s.

5:53 Cincinnati LB Vontaze Burfict has been fantastic so far. His stock went from first round pick to totally undraftable in the span of a few months, but the Bengals took a chance on him. That’s paying off. His instincts have been extremely good so far. Rangy, athletic, great burst, just everything you could ever want from a linebacker. You know, just like Rey Maualuga, only the exact opposite.

6:16 And we’re back. Just stepped out during halftime to grab some delicious mini hot dogs and to take a shower. Houston is already driving at the Cincy 48. Terrific blocking so far for Houston: their zone scheme  is taking Cincy’s defensive line apart.

6:22 Misdirection play action puts the Texans inside the Cincy 10. These are the Texans that showed up for the first 12 weeks of the season. They have a lead, they’re running it all over Cincy, and now the misdirection play action is starting to enter the picture. They’re playing tight coverage and suffocating any passing game from Andy Dalton with a ruthless pass rush. Cincy’s pass rush is nonexistent.

6:25 Touchdown Houston! Arian Foster plunges it into the end zone from one yard away. Left guard Wade Smith systematically clears out the two guys in Foster’s way: nobody touches Foster on his way into the end zone. Looks like I’m already 0-1. Houston 16, Cincy 7.

6:28 Screw Tebow Time, it’s WEBB TIME!!! Christian Ponder has been declared inactive. Minny-Green Bay has now turned into the most riveting game of the weekend.

6:29 First catch from A.J. Green. Remember when I said that A.J. Green might as well already have two touchdowns? Well, that wasn’t me. That was my little bro- oh, wait I’ve used that one before. Yeah, I’m an idiot.

6:30 Or am I? Three big catches for over 60 yards by Green puts the Bengals in the red zone. I tried out Bill Simmons’ reverse jinx method. Worked like a charm.

6:36 The drive stalls in Texans’ territory and Cincy kicks a field goal. 16-10 Houston. New drinking game: every time you see the words, “the drive stalls” in my running diaries from now on, take a drink. If you’re over 21, of course.

6:38 Hey, cool! I was wondering when the Pro Bowl was! Better not miss it..... said no one ever.

6:39 The Texans are really involving Arian Foster in their passing game. He’s getting involved in screen plays, flat swings, etc. Not sure why they ever reduced his role in the passing game, he was always a very good pass catching RB.

6:44 Texans punt and the Bengals have the ball after Brandon Tate nearly muffed the punt. Andy Dalton took that gift, re-wrapped it, put an used bow on it, and then gave it right back. Jonathan Joseph picks him off and returns it to the 26 yard line. For some reason, A.J. Green never looks for the ball even though it’s thrown right in front of him

6:50 Alright guys, this is the game-winning kick. Labels out. Just trust me, it simulates a smoother contact surface for the kicker. The product placement is totally coincidental, I assure you. Also, that commercial is the only time you’ll ever see Raiders fans happily cheering. Time Out: So many jokes about obscure commercials from the 2012 Playoffs in here. Somebody’s gonna read this thing in 2019 and be thoroughly confused.

6:55 End of the third: 16-10 Houston and the Texans are inside the Cincinnati 10. I’m already in danger of going 0-1 and Joe Webb is ready to kill my Packers-Vikings pick. Not a particularly strong start.

6:58 Texans’ drive stalls (1-2-3-SHOT!!!) in Bengals territory and Shayne Graham kicks his fourth field goal. 19-10 Houston. Shout-out to Cincy’s pass rush for giving Matt Schaub enough time to read The Sound and the Fury before he throws. Maybe that’s not entirely fair: the Texans’ O-Line has been doing a fantastic job on Cincinnati’s pass rush. Geno Atkins has consistently found himself upfield of the QB.

7:01 Bengals at midfield thanks in most part to a big kickoff return by Brandon Tate.

7:05 Cincy converts a fourth down at the Houston 40 for a first down. Hmmm......

7:07 4th and 2 on the Houston 37 and on comes the field goal unit. If he misses it, things are essentially over.

7:08 He got it! 19-13 Houston with nine minutes left in the fourth. Remember when I said that you need at least a decent rushing defense to succeed in the playoffs if you don’t have a fantastic offense? This is why. If the Colts were playing in this game instead of the Bengals, it would already be over. Houston would just be able to pound them into submission and run out the clock.

7:12 The Texans start off the drive with a 21 yard play action pass to James Casey in the flat. Very imaginative play call: that’s the kind of playbook management that you like to see from a playoff coach.

7:16 Houston is forced to punt after nearly converting a 3rd and 14 with yet another short throw to Owen Daniels. Solid C- performance from the Bengals’ front seven.

7:20 Five and a half minutes are left in the fourth as BenJarvus Green-Ellis crosses the 40 yard line. Even if Houston wins this game, I would not consider picking them next week. They should have put the Bengals away by halftime with the way Cincy has been playing, but they’ve been let off the hook time and time again. Just in the last fifteen minutes, the Texans have given up a first down conversion and two third down stops because of pass interference penalties. I thought about forcing in another “coffee is for closers” joke here, but I ultimately edited it out.

7:28 A.J. Green put a nasty double move on Jonathan Joseph on third down and eleven from the 37 yard line and got open in the endzone on a go route. Andy Dalton overthrew him by a good ten yards. That might have been the game right there.

7:31 Cincy comes up three yards short of converting the fourth down. Houston gets the ball. Arian Foster runs for eight yards on the next two plays to get the Texans to 3rd and 2. This is the game right here....

7:33 Texans win, THEEEEEE TEXANS WIN!!! I apologize for briefly channeling John Sterling there. Matt Schaub converted the third and two on a play action pass over the middle to Garrett Graham. For the most part, Schaub was on point and made a ton of high percentage throws. Arian Foster gashed the Bengals for 174 total yards, almost as many as the Bengals’ offense had for the entire game. Houston dominated the line of scrimmage, shut A.J. Green down, and used tons of misdirection and throws to the flat to take advantage of Cincy’s over aggression. Fantastic win by Houston. Still not impressed enough to take them against New England, though. See you in twenty minutes.

7:40 Oh, and I thoroughly enjoyed Mike Mayock’s impression of Jim Mora. Great stuff.

8:01 Darn it, it turns out that NBC didn’t dump the Faith Hill intro. They just saved it for the primetime game. Hoping that they dumped the Faith Hill into was like hoping that the Jets could make the playoffs: fun to dream about but ultimately futile.

WILD CARD WEEKEND PART 2

1:00 Ray Lewis’ entrance was one of the top ten most awesome things I’ve ever seen in my life. There’s no doubt in my mind that Baltimore is winning this game after seeing that intro.

1:03 Bruce Arians was hospitalized with the flu about an hour before the game. Hope he’s doing OK. That’s a huge loss for the Colts: he calls the plays and ran the team when Chuck Pagano wasn’t there. Now somebody who hasn’t had to manage the playbook during a game has to manage the playbook in a playoff game on about two hours’ notice. Call me crazy, but I don’t think this ends well.

1:06 I’ll be frantically juggling this running diary, writing thank you notes from Christmas, and playing Assassin’s Creed over the next six hours. Hey, you can’t possibly expect a focused and witty writer for $12.95 these days. Time Out: That’s the price of my book. And have I told you that you should buy the book yet? I’m sure I haven’t, right?

1:08 HEEEEEERE WEEEEEE GOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Told you I would start channeling that drunk Jets fan sooner or later. The Colts start with the ball on their own 20 yard line.

1:10 This game is the first one all year where the Ravens will have their four best defensive players on the field together. Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Ray Lewis have not all been on the field at the same time since last year. That might make a small bit of difference.

1:12 Quesadilla break!

1:22 And we’re back! The Ravens drove down the field while I was away, but Ray Rice fumbled the ball on the ten yard line and the Colts recovered. By the way, my New Year’s Resolution was to eat healthier. My first meal of the day was at 1:00 PM and it was two microwavable chicken quesadillas. Somehow I can keep writing this book every day for nine months, but I can’t stay on a health program for more than nine hours.

1:25 Indy is driving on to Baltimore’s side of the field after Luck throws a beautiful back shoulder fade to Reggie Wayne. Andrew Luck has been fantastic so far. He’s been accurate, on time with his throws, and has escaped two drive-ending sacks. And that’s just on this drive.

1:29 Luck is stripped from behind by Paul Kruger and Darnell McPhee fell on it for the Ravens. Great pass rush from Kruger. He went right around his offensive lineman and swatted forward with his left arm just as Luck was about to throw the ball. Ravens now have the ball at the 37 yard line.

1:35 The Colts’ offensive line is generating more push than the Ravens’ D-Line. Running back Vick Ballard isn’t being contacted until he gets a good three or four yards downfield on most plays.

1:37 I picked the Ravens, I’m confident that the Ravens will win, and I’m wearing my “Chuckstrong” shirt. I also started clapping when the Colts forced the fumble and generally feel like a total scumbag for picking the Ravens. Chuckstrong!!

1:39 Wait, I think there is a pizza place worse than Papa John’s. I forgot about Pizza Hut. As Kevin Malone from The Office would say, “It’s like eating a hot circle of garbage.” But if you don’t mind destroying the toilet every hour or two, their extra toppings special is a great deal. In case you care about some dumb game and don’t want to hear my snarky pizza-related comments, the first quarter just ended with the score still tied at 0. Really, though, who falls under that category?

1:44 The Ravens are now on the Colts’ 38 after a beautiful catch over the middle by Torrey Smith. Flacco threw it too high, but Smith elevated and got the ball at its highest point. Just like they teach you in high school football. Or just as announcers tell me they teach you in high school football. I’m a skinny, 125 pound junior that would need to make multiple trips to BALCO before considering the football team. So I can’t confirm that they tell you to catch the ball at its highest point. The point of that rambling is: nice catch by Smith.

1:48 Bernard Pierce rips off a nice 20 yard run a few plays later to put the Ravens inside the Indy 10 yard line. The drive stalls (Bottoms up!) after three straight incompletions and Baltimore is forced to kick a field goal. This is exactly how the Colts can win this game. Force a turnover, hold the Ravens to field goals, and generally hang with the Ravens until the fourth quarter. They’re off to a great start. 3-0 Baltimore.

1:52 Ray Lewis drops an interception off of a tipped pass. It’s just so weird to see Ray Lewis miss plays like that because he’s Ray Lewis. For seventeen years, you could count on Ray Lewis to almost always make a play when the Ravens needed it the most. It’s just such a rare sight to see him drop an easy pick. I have a feeling that he’ll make up for that later in the game.

1:57 The Ravens have gone 0-2 on scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone and have dropped two interceptions. None of the first round playoff teams impressed me yesterday, and Baltimore isn’t doing much better so far.

2:01 A brilliant punt by Samuel Koch that was downed on the 2 yard line is instead called as a touchback because the guy who downed it went out of bounds earlier in the play. It’s the most interesting thing that has happened in the last twenty minutes.

2:06 Indy is driving again and just inside the Baltimore 40. They’ve been working Dwayne Allen into the offense this drive with throws over the middle and tight end screens. I like Dwayne Allen; he’s often overlooked because everybody’s paying attention to Luck, Wayne, and T.Y. Hilton. I feel like he could be to Andrew Luck what Dallas Clark or Marcus Pollard was to Peyton Manning: a reliable hot route against the blitz and the top red zone target. Speaking of blitzes, the Ravens have been pretty aggressive so far. They’re throwing five man rushes and blitzes through the A Gap at Andrew Luck pretty liberally.

2:11 Indy is forced to bring out Adam Vinatieri for a field goal and Vinatieri punches it through the uprights from 47 yards away. The game is now tied at 3-3 with 2:30 left in the second quarter.

2:17 And we have our first big play of the day! Baltimore was at the Indy 48 and Joe Flacco threw a mid-screen to Ray Rice because he read an Indy zone blitz correctly. The ball just evaded the reach of a diving Robert Mathis and Rice gathered it in with nothing but open field ahead of him. Rice matriculated the football 47 yards all the way down to the one yard line. Great job of going through progressions by Flacco and a terrific piece of running by Rice. Fantastic blocking by Torrey Smith on the outside as well. Wow, I feel like I just morphed into Jon Gruden for those last two sentences.

2:20 Forget punters, FULLBACKS ARE PEOPLE TOO!!! Vonta Leach punches it into the endzone from one yard away! That’s right, we have back to back playoff games where fullbacks scored touchdowns! Rich Eisen needs to get some “Fullbacks are people too” t-shirts made up to go with the punter ones. 10-3 Baltimore with a minute left in the half.

2:29 Ray Lewis has this ginormous brace on his left arm. It looks like somebody took off Anakin Skywalker’s robotic arm from Star Wars III and mounted it on Ray Lewis’ arm. That’s the best description I can give you, folks.

2:31 With twelve seconds left before halftime and the Colts on their own 42, Andrew Luck steps up into the pocket and fires the ball to T.Y. Hilton on a deep curl to the left sideline. Hilton had separation, caught the ball, and then turned upfield and got out of bounds on the Ravens’ 35 yard line. Vinatieri then kicked a 52 yard field goal right before the half. A bad coverage lapse by Baltimore gave the Colts a ton of momentum at halftime. The score is 10-6 Baltimore, but I’m worried. Young teams always thrive on little momentum swings like this, so I’d expect Indy to come out firing in the second half.

2:39 I wouldn’t necessarily call 2 Broke Girls, Mike and Molly, How I Met Your Mother, and Big Bang Theory my favorite comedies, CBS. And neither would most other people. But thanks anyways. Yep, this is where we’re at with network television in 2013. Although I must confess: Sean’s season of The Bachelor looks riveting.

2:47 The second half is underway and Vonta Leach is injured. That’s awful news for Baltimore. Most of their inside runs are executed right behind Leach and almost all of their red zone runs rely on him. He’s a traditional lead blocker and one of the best fullbacks in football. Hope he’s OK.

2:50 Huge play for Baltimore. Facing 3rd and Forever on his own eight yard line, Joe Flacco just heaved it thirty yards downfield towards a cluster of players on the right sideline that included three Colts’ CBs and wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Tandon Doss. Boldin came down with it after none of the CBs bothered to play the football and were instead focused on controlling the routes of the receivers, which they soon found out was considered defensive pass interference. I didn’t realize that Haruki Nakamura was starting for the Colts today. And if you’re one of the three readers that remembers who Haruki Nakamura was, then give me a high five if you ever see me. Actually, go ahead and do that even if you don’t remember who Haruki Nakamura was.

2:56 OK, I think I’ve figured out a better way to describe Ray Lewis’s arm brace. It makes him look like a muscular version of Captain Hook, only if Captain Hook had a giant robotic arm. So there you go.

3:00 Paul Kruger has been phenomenal so far. He just blew by the replacement right tackle  with a vicious speed rush and took Andrew Luck down for yet another drive ending sack. He now has two and a half sacks for the day.

3:03 And we have another huge play for Baltimore! Joe Flacco lobbed a deep ball for Anquan Boldin, who made a fantastic 46 yard catch against the sideline. That set the Ravens up at the Indianapolis 20. Colts CB Cassius Vaughn has been beaten pretty consistently by Boldin in the third quarter. Boldin had him by a step on that route and made a terrific over the shoulder catch. Baltimore is starting to get more comfortable with the thought of Joe Flacco throwing the ball deep downfield.

3:07 Touchdown Baltimore! Flacco to Pitta for a twenty yard score! Baltimore is up 17-6 and starting to pull away with this one. Joe Flacco has nine completions for over 230 yards  so far.

3:11 Baltimore’s secondary really hasn’t been great today. Their coverage has been a little bit too relaxed and they’ve missed a few interception chances. I mention this because Luck just completed a skinny post route to LaVon Brazill. Indy is now on their own 43 yard line.

3:15 I was probably too quick to stick a fork in Indy. Andrew Luck is moving the ball with a ton of passes to open receivers that are finding holes in the zone coverage. Luck is just a confident dude. You can tell when rookie QBs are playing conservative (read: scared) after getting blitzed a couple of times. Luck is certainly not one of those QBs. He’s just got tons of confidence. Andrew Luck will end up in the Hall of Fame someday. No doubt about it. The Colts punch in a field goal to make the score 17-9 Ravens.

3:23 End of the third quarter and the score is still 17-9 Baltimore. Time to sneak in a quick Assassin’s Creed mission.

3:25 The fourth quarter starts with a 25 yard hookup from Flacco to Anquan Boldin. Boldin ran a deep out that got Cassius Vaughn all turned around. Flacco is averaging over 20 yards per pass at this point.

3:26 FUMBLE!!! Ray Rice puts the ball on the turf yet again and the Colts recover. Terrific presence of mind by cornerback Brandon Lefeged to see that Rice wasn’t holding the ball high and tight and punch it out. That’s Rice’s second fumble of the day.

3:29 Indianapolis is now on the Baltimore 23 yard line after some sharp passing by Andrew Luck and a nice off tackle run by Vick Ballard. Baltimore’s defense looks more uncomfortable on this drive than they’ve looked at any point since Houston mopped them up two months ago. Also, I’m totally neglecting my peer leader application to watch these games. Probably not something I should bring up in my entrance interview later this month.

3:32 Adam Vinatieri misses a field goal, so the score is still 17-9 Baltimore with eleven and a half minutes left in the fourth quarter. The road playoff teams have not scored a first half touchdown in these playoffs so far. We might not see a road win in the first round for the second year in a row.

3:38 Huge run by Bernard Pierce. He took the handoff at the Ravens’ 38 and ran right through the B Gap for a huge gain down to the Colts’ 19 yard line. We’re in range for a knockout punch...

3:40 And there it is! Flacco to Boldin for a 19 yard touchdown! CB Darius Butler had his arm in Boldin’s face, but Boldin secured the ball against Butler’s arm and had complete control going to the ground. He’s undoubtedly the MVP of this game so far. It doesn’t matter who the Colts stick on him, he just continues to make great catches. He did this to Kareem Jackson when they played the Texans in the 2011 Playoffs. 24-9 Baltimore with nine minutes left in the fourth.

3:50 The score tells you everything you need to know about the difference between the Ravens and the Colts. The case against picking young teams like the Colts is that they often can’t fully take advantage of opportunities. They’ve forced two turnovers and gotten no points off of them. They’ve had multiple red zone trips and scored touchdowns on none of them. Baltimore just seems and plays like a more playoff-worthy team. Indy hasn’t been playing badly, but they haven’t taken advantage of potentially game changing situations like Baltimore has. Indy usually lives on momentum swings and turns things on for the fourth quarter, so I can’t help but feel like things would have turned out much differently if Indy had scored a touchdown instead of a field goal on one of their red zone trips.

3:57 The Colts are on the Ravens’ 18 yard line and facing a fourth and one with five and a half minutes left in the game. I am going upstairs to consume a brownie. Be right back.

3:58 Intercepted! CB Corey Graham tipped a quick out that was meant for Reggie Wayne and Cary WIlliams catches it off the deflection. And with that, I can now eat my brownie and take a break in peace before the last game of Wild Card Weekend kicks off.

4:33 Aaaaand we’re back for our last game of the day. Seattle-Washington is kicking off any minute now. Time Out: See the book for details. Hey, did you know that there’s a ton of extra content about the season in an accompanying book that I wrote? No, seriously, there is! Also, all of this self-promotion is making me feel arrogant. I’ll stop now.

4:35 I slept about three hours last night. I’ve got a cold and a sore throat that are making me sound like a mute cross between Rod Stewart and Michael Irvin. I’m about to spend my tenth hour this weekend in front of my laptop, writing inane things about football. And I’m still more excited than Joe Buck.

4:39 One last dance for Ray Lewis in front of the crowd that has loved him for 17 years..... wow. I got the chills just watching it.

                   DIVISIONAL ROUND

                   TEXANS AT PATRIOTS

I’m gonna go out on a limb and make a bold prediction. You know, because I looked back at this monster of a book, saw that most of it consisted of me being wrong about things, and then decided it needed a bold prediction. It’s not even that bold since the first round is over, but here goes. There will not be a single upset in these playoffs. The favorite will win every single game.

Let’s go through the games one at a time and break down why, starting with this one. Is there anything to indicate that Houston could pull off an upset here? What has changed since they were destroyed 42-14 back in December? They matched up poorly with New England back then, and they match up just as poorly now. Brice McCain still isn’t there and the Texans’ secondary is still super-thin, so anybody who wants to attack the Texans in the slot are free to do so. Welker did only manage three catches on nine targets last game, but Brady was primarily attacking the Texans with Aaron Hernandez over the middle and Brandon Lloyd downfield. The Pats picked on a hobbled Jonathan Joseph virtually all game and got good results. Joseph performed well against A.J. Green, so that advantage might be somewhat diminished. However, the Pats will have Rob Gronkowski back for this game to attack the safeties. That’s something they did not have in their first matchup with Houston. New England’s two tight end formations mean that Houston will probably have to commit at least one safety to covering the middle of the field. That’s going to leave Joseph one on one with Lloyd for a majority of New England’s passing plays. We all know how well that turned out last time. I’m convinced that J.J. Watt needs to have the game of his life in order for the Texans to win in New England. However, New England’s no huddle offense and fast developing plays are the perfect defense against great pass rushers.

To beat the Patriots, a team needs two things. Firstly, it needs a pass defense. If the team’s passing defense isn’t at least competent, the game might as well not even be played. I’m definitely not saying the Texans’ pass D is incompetent, but it has been suspect against good passing teams. Tom Brady carved them up for four touchdowns. Peyton Manning almost pulled off a comeback from being down 31-10 against them. Even Chad Henne was able to accumulate over 400 passing yards against them. They rank 28th in DVOA against number two receivers, which is a little bit of a problem when the Patriots have Wes Welker. The list of healthy Texans’ corners that have consistently performed well this season pretty much begins and ends with Jonathan Joseph. So, there’s that issue to deal with.

Secondly, it needs a good passing game. Matt Schaub is competent. He’ll usually win a few games and he won’t lose many of them. However, Schaub has been very inconsistent this season and has been especially suspect in the month of December. He has taken 12 sacks in December, which is more than he’s taken in any of the previous three months. His yards per pass in December is also the lowest of the four months and his December TD/INT ratio of 1 is tied with October for the worst month in that category. Remember, this is the same guy that performed so shakily that Bill Simmons openly wondered if he was injured and the Texans aren’t telling us. I feel like the Pats aren’t really that concerned about going up against Matt Schaub.

It’s true that the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs after getting blown out in December. Believe me, I can tell you all about that night. But that was a little bit different. The Jets were blown out in December in part because Jim Leonhard, the guy who called the defensive plays, was injured three days before the game. So the Jets had to frantically teach his placalling replacement a super-simplified version of the defense. It was a defense that was predicated largely on base formations, and Tom Brady picked it apart. That’s not to excuse anything that ensued: Tom Brady executed the hurry up offense perfectly and the Jets failed to execute even the most basic elements of their game plan. But their primary problem was fixable with time. They went into New England in January with a completely different game plan: challenge every short throw in order to expose the Pats’ lack of a deep threat. That plan won’t work for the Texans because Brandon Lloyd can stretch the field and Rob Gronkowski has emerged as a viable downfield threat over the middle. Plus, the Jets played with emotion. That was their Super Bowl. I’ve never seen a team so eager to destroy another. They wanted that game in a way that very few teams have ever wanted one. It was more than emotion, it was anger. The Jets were enraged for that game, and it boosted them to another level that they could never come close to reaching again. I don’t see that emotion from Houston. Very little has changed since the Texans lost to the Patriots in Foxborough back in December. Well, except for Rob Gronkowski coming back and New England getting a week of rest before this one.

I do feel like this game will be much closer than the last one by virtue of the fact that Houston is seeing New England for the second time. That practical experience is going to be invaluable in the preparation process. Plus, Houston isn’t coming off of a stretch where they played nine quarters in the span of five days. That’s also going to help. But there’s nothing that I saw in Houston’s 19-13 win over Cincinnati that would suggest a win over the Patriots. They played Texans football, took a lead, ran it on the ground with Arian Foster, defended the pass extremely well, and still only won by six points. In other words, everything went according to plan and the Texans still probably would have lost if Andy Dalton had just hit A.J. Green in stride on that missed go route late in the fourth. “Everything going to plan” and “only winning by six against Cincinnati” are not phrases that should be in the same sentence when describing a team that can beat New England.

Patriots 35, Texans 24 W Patriots 41, Texans 28

      

                   PACKERS AT NINERS

I could probably just write, “see above” in this section and move on to the next game. And since The Bachelor is coming on in an hour, I briefly considered it. Much like the Pats-Texans game, nothing much has changed since the Niners bullied Green Bay back in Week 1. Out of every team that made it to the playoffs, San Francisco is probably the worst possible matchup for Green Bay. The Packers’ offensive line ranks 31st in Adjusted Sack Rating: only San Diego’s offensive line is worse. Fortunately, San Francisco doesn’t have a dominant pass rusher. If they only had one guy who could take advantage of - oh wait. Aldon Smith will be taking his talents to the Green Bay backfield on virtually every single play because Green Bay doesn’t have an offensive lineman capable of blocking him. That’s what lead to Aaron Rodgers enduring five QB hits against the Niners. Rodgers was sacked 51 times over the course of the year, the most of any QB. Against a physical, line-dominating team like San Francisco, that doesn’t necessarily bode well. San Francisco is a team that is predicated on winning the tug-of-war at the line on both sides of the football. Teams like that must penetrate on both sides of the football to be successful. How far back San Fran can push Green Bay’s O-Line and how far forward they can push Green Bay’s front seven will determine their success. Green Bay’s offensive line is horrendous in pass protection and ranks 25th in adjusted line yards, although a fair portion of the blame for that falls on the shoulders of Green Bay’s inert running game. Upsets are created when good teams can be taken out of their element by matchup advantages or other outside factors, and the Packers have nothing that can seriously change San Francisco’s game plan. Don’t let the 30-22 final score fool you: the Packers-Niners game in Week One wasn’t close in terms of execution. Randall Cobb’s dubious punt return for a touchdown that should have been called back skewed the final score to give it the appearance of a good game. Well, it wasn’t. The Packers were out-schemed and out-executed by a much more fundamentally sound Niners team. You know how there’s always one team every year that comes out of the gates in Week One looking better than everyone else? In 2011, it was Baltimore. In 2010, it was New England, 2009 Minnesota, etc. In almost all cases, that team ends up making a playoff run. This year, that team is San Francisco. Green Bay has never really looked that impressive to me. They’ve lost easily winnable games against Indy, Seattle (yes, I know they should have won. But Seattle dominated them for most of that game), and Minnesota. And don’t even get me started on that Giants game: they were absolutely mauled by New York’s front seven. Their kryptonite is teams that are aggressive with their front seven and aren’t afraid to take chances down the field.

Well, we’ve already established that the Packers are pretty much helpless on the front seven side of things. But they should be safe as far as the downfield passing side of things are concerned. Nobody’s confusing Alex Smith with Daryle Lamonica anytime soon. And that last sentence was probably the first line of Chris Berman’s NFL Countdown script the week after Colin Kaepernick took over. Oh wait, I forgot about Colin Kaepernick. He’s what truly makes this game a nightmare matchup for the Packers. Alex Smith was a completion percentage passer. He was accurate, fundamentally sound, and not at all scary. Smith was a very good QB and did a fantastic job this year, don’t get me wrong. But nobody has ever said anything along the lines of, “I’m terrified of Alex Smith throwing a sixty yard touchdown on us.” Kaepernick changes everything. Suddenly, an aging Charles Woodson becomes a liability in downfield coverage, where his failing speed is brought to the foreground. Green Bay is 24th in DVOA against number one receivers, which tends to be a problem when Michael Crabtree is averaging 107.6 yards per game for his last five games. Also, with the arrival of Kaepernick, the Niners have started to work in the same designed QB runs and zone read concepts that I wrote about in the Seahawks-Redskins game. Defending that scheme requires great athleticism and smarts from the inside linebacker because the entire appeal of the zone read offense is choosing what to do after the ILB has shown his hand and committed to either the inside or outside. That seems relevant since inside linebackers Desmond Bishop, D.J. Smith, and Nick Perry are all on injured reserve. Can you really count on Dezman Moses and Minimum Salary Guy X to be the first line of defense against a punishing Niners’ O-Line? I don’t know about you, but I’m not liking their chances.

San Francisco went into Lambeau Field during the first week of the season and beat Green Bay down. It was more than just winning the game though. It was all about how they won it. The Niners were stronger, faster, and better than Green Bay. Whenever any 49er went up against any Packer at the line of scrimmage, it seemed like the 49er would always win. It was like a field day tug of war game where all of the strong kids were accidentally put on the same team. The Niners kept pushing their way further and further, inch by inch, until Green Bay could no longer hold their ground. It was one of the most impressive victories that I’ve seen all year. I’ve seen nothing in the last seventeen weeks that would suggest anything but a similar result. I’m taking San Francisco to get a win and move on to the conference championship.

49ers 31, Packers 16 W Niners 45, Packers 31

      

SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS

I’m already going to break rank with my bold prediction. I hate tossing out inane statements and immediately retracting them, but I’m going to do it anyways. The underdogs seemed hopeless, outclassed, and mismatched against the favorites. But things seem especially hopeless for this particular team. They’re 12th in total DVOA and barely above average in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Nobody believes in this particular team. Even worse, everybody seems to have forgotten about them even though they’re one of the best teams in the league. An explosive passing game. Two receivers that rank in the top twelve for DVOA. A very good offensive line that has protected its all-pro QB quite well. And nobody will give them the time of day. My upset pick is 13-3. My upset pick is the number one seed and gets to play in a loud dome for the entirety of the playoffs. My upset pick is the Vegas favorite, owned the best record in the league for a large majority of the year, and is playing a team that was down 14-0 at the end of the first quarter in their Wild Card game. Yes, I’m hopping on the Atlanta Falcons’ bandwagon.

Why? Because everybody loves Seattle too much. Atlanta just missed qualifying for my 4/40 rule because even Vegas hates Atlanta and only favored them by three points. You know how much of SportsNation likes Seattle straight up? 64%. You read that right. 64%. Have we ever seen a one seed be so blatantly disregarded before? I say no. Vegas wouldn’t exist if the majority or even a respectable minority of the public made money while betting on sports. So if you extrapolate that principle, the logical conclusion is that the public is wrong far more often than they are right when it comes to predicting upsets. So if you see such heavy action on a sleeper, well, you know what to do. I’m not claiming to be any kind of football savant or even competent at picking games, but I’ve found this theory to hold true in most cases. And for once, I’m not completely ignoring my own advice and picking against it.

Of course, the “popular upsets almost never work out” theory isn’t the only reason that I’m going with Atlanta. When I went on a vacation to San Francisco after eighth grade, I was totally exhausted for a day after the flight. If the hotel were on fire the next morning, I would have spent a second debating whether to run or stay in bed and hope someone put the fire out before it got to me. When I flew back to New Jersey, jet-lag sucker punched me once again. Since then, I’ve been a huge believer in time zone changes screwing up your body for a day or two. With that in mind, it’s pretty significant that Seattle went from West Coast to East Coast for their Wild Card game, flew back to Seattle, and then back again to the East Coast. Also, Seattle to Atlanta is the second longest flight in the NFL barring an international game (Seattle to Miami is the longest). I’m supposed to believe that the Seahawks will be totally fine after that? It’s also worth noting that a climate-controlled stadium like the Georgia Dome immensely improves Atlanta’s passing game while neither helping nor hurting Seattle’s offense. If anything, power running teams like Seattle prefer playing on fields like the horse track/bad municipal golf course that the grounds crew set up in Washington this past Sunday. The ground game is a lot less susceptible to the elements than the aerial attack is, so teams with a strong running game won’t be affected by inclement weather or bad turf to the degree that passing teams will. Playing in a dome totally nullifies that advantage. Also, domes retain sound a lot better than open air stadiums do. So on 3rd and 12 on their own 14 yard line, Russell Wilson is going to have a much more difficult time communicating audibles and quick changes than he had last week. That’s a big factor in the success of an offense that nobody really thinks about.

This game is really the perfect failed upset pick as well as one of the biggest trap games in recent memory. I’m a firm believer that if you’re going to pick an upset in the playoffs, you have to like the team that you’re picking. This goes double for a road upset pick. Let’s not forget that these same Seahawks were down 14-0 to Washington and won because Robert Griffin’s knee caved in. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage by an O-Line featuring Tyler Polumbus and it took until the fourth quarter for them to retake a lead over what was essentially a team without a QB. Apparently, 64% of the public saw that performance and loved it so much that they decided Seattle should be favored over a one seed despite traveling across the country in consecutive weeks. Uh, how does that make sense? Is there any reason to believe that Seattle will play better than they did in the Wild Card round? Or is this purely because everyone doesn’t like the Falcons?

Disliking Atlanta was an easy card to play if you wanted to go out on a limb with a prediction this year. Imagine the shock value of saying, “Hey, you know that team with the best record? The Falcons? They’re not that good!” By the time the end of the season rolled around, it was rare to find a person that liked the Falcons. Heck, I hated the Falcons for most of this season. But every time we’ve put them down for a loss- against the Giants and Saints for instance- they’ve responded with big wins. Everybody jumped on the “Falcons are overvalued” bandwagon to the point where they’re kind of undervalued right now. Plus, it’s always dangerous when nobody believes in a home team that happens to be the number one seed. And it’s even more dangerous when the team playing them might not be all that everyone says they are. So I’m going to pick the biggest upset of the week by taking the three point favorites.

Falcons 24, Seahawks 7 Falcons 30, Seahawks 28

      

RAVENS AT BRONCOS

It seems like with every week, I pick new teams to crap on. Even if I loved them the previous week, well, too bad. I hate them this week. And I’d be telling you a lie if I didn’t admit that part of why I do that is for entertainment purposes. My writing style can be best described as a snarky salad drenched in a thick coating of sarcastic dressing. Wow, that might have been the worst sentence I’ve ever seen, whether in this book or otherwise. See what I mean? It’s so much easier to write that way when you’re taking a negative viewpoint on something rather than a positive one. I’m all for giving credit where credit is due and I’m not one of those awful, “I’m gonna point out how terrible everything is” people. I’m naturally cynical and if the evidence favors one team one week and then discredits them the next, I’m going to follow that evidence. So please don’t think that I hate the Seahawks or the Ravens: I’m just calling them like I see them. And after that nice paragraph of self-reflection and inward thought, allow me to start crapping on the Ravens.

Baltimore Head Coach Jon Harbaugh: The emotions were real. It was tangible. We all felt it.

That quote was delivered hours after the Ravens’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Wild Card Weekend. Do you remember the emotional team from the “playoff roles” section? Ding-ding-ding-ding!! We found ‘em! Yep, the Baltimore Ravens are our emotional home team that very few people liked in the Wild Card Round. They had their win over the Colts, Ray Lewis got to do one last squirrel dance in front of his home fans, and now they’re coming off of an emotional high while traveling to a place that is notorious for its thin air. When they arrive, they’ll find a team that isn’t as liable to be pushed around as the Colts are. Indy ranks dead last in the league in DVOA against the run, but Denver ranks 5th. Same with pass defense: Denver is more than twenty spots above Indianapolis. So while Joe Flacco looked plenty good enough last week, there’s reason to believe that the same won’t be true this week.

And what about the defense? Last week, there was pressure coming from all sides against Andrew Luck because the Colts were operating with a patchwork O-Line that ranked near the bottom of the league in adjusted line yards and would have ranked near the bottom in sack percentage if Luck’s pocket presence wasn’t otherworldly. The Ravens will have no such luxury against Denver’s O-Line, which ranks second in the league for both sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate. And since Peyton Manning has been in the league for fifteen years, the Ravens don’t have the advantage of using a defensive scheme that he’s never seen before. That was a possibility against a rookie QB like Luck, but the Ravens have no such benefit here. Denver is just a superior team to Baltimore in almost every aspect of the game and they’re at home to boot. That doesn’t bode well for Baltimore.

Remember when I said that sports usually provide fitting endings? For years, Ray Lewis was always better than everyone else. He was stronger, faster, smarter, hit harder, talked louder, tackled more, and inspired his team more than any other linebacker in the league. Every wide receiver in the league dreaded going across the middle against the Ravens because that was Ray’s domain. You just didn’t do it unless you were prepared to be knocked into next week. After awhile, people stopped going across the middle out of both respect and fear. As his skills have deteriorated and the injuries piled up, Ray probably realized that he could no longer do what he did in his younger days. And if there’s one thing in the world that a hyper-competitive athlete like Ray Lewis would never do, it’s try and hang on past their time. Last week, the first part of Ray Lewis’ ending was written. He danced, screamed incomprehensible things, got double digits in the tackles column, and essentially did everything that the old Ray Lewis would have done. The Colts didn’t send their tight ends across the middle for some unclear reason, which brought back memories of when Lewis was the best LB in the league. He got to say a fitting and victorious goodbye to his hometown fans. Now, the second and unpleasant part of the ending comes. The one that reminds the NFL world why Ray Lewis has had enough. Demaryius Thomas might catch a slant and give Lewis a juke move. Or a running back might stiff arm him. Either way, the last ride of Ray Lewis will provide an appropriate end to the career of an all-time great linebacker. But Baltimore’s time in these playoffs are coming to an end. They’re a very good team that must play a great team on the road. I’m picking the great team.

Broncos 35, Ravens 23 L Ravens 38, Broncos 35 (2OT)

           

        A SMALL SAMPLE OF THE DIVISIONAL DIARIES

9:00 OK, I’m back. I’ve missed just about the entirety of the first quarter in Packers-Niners and I’ll probably miss more than that if you count all the time I’ll be thinking about Broncos-Ravens. Time Out: I missed the first quarter because I was too busy cataloguing Broncos-Ravens. You know those cliche “I survived____” t-shirts that they give out in the gift shop of every thrill ride ever? I wanted to get a custom “I survived five hours with Dan Dierdorf” t-shirt made up, but I decided against it. Colin Kaepernick scrambled for a 20 yard touchdown to make the score 7-7 back around 8:40. We’ve got about a minute left in the first.

9:01 Fantastic grab by James Jones. He ran a go route down the right sideline and then jumped higher than Chris Culliver when the ball arrived. He secured it in mid-air, but then let it slip from his grasp. As he went down to the ground, he tipped the ball to himself and caught it. I’m just about burned out on unbelievable things for tonight. I’m fully expecting Roscoe to grow wings and fly within the next hour.

9:03 Touchdown Green Bay! Dajuan Harris popped it in from fifteen yards away. It was a power trap play and T.J. Lang blocked the free rusher in the backfield past Harris, who burst through a hole in the O-Line and just followed his blocks from there. 14-7 Green Bay, end of the first quarter.

9:13 Muff! San Fran drove the ball to around the 50 yard line and then couldn’t convert a third down. Jeremy Ross then muffs the punt, giving San Fran great field position inside the Green Bay 10.

9:15 Touchdown San Francisco! Kaepernick to Crabtree for a 12 yard touchdown! The Niners ran some endzone routes on the outside in order to draw the safeties away, and then Kaepernick fired it into Crabtree over a suddenly very clear middle of the field. Also, one of these running diaries will be the death of me.

9:19 Since I’ve expended all of my creative energy and brainpower on the first game, I’m going to pilfer Aaron Schatz’s Twitter feed:

Re-tweet: Peyton Manning's real name is Chokey McChoker because he can't stop a Hail Mary with 30 seconds left. Manning is the worst DB ever.

9:21 Reporter back in 2007 talking to Aaron Rodgers: Aaron, how disappointed are you that the Niners didn’t draft you?

Rodgers: Not as disappointed as the Niners will be.

Ooh, Discount Double Slammed! And with that, my three hour and thirty minute streak of not making fun of ads has ended. I just couldn’t resist.

9:24 Rodgers throws an interception with about nine minutes left in the second quarter. He guns it way downfield , far past his receiver and into the hands of Tarrell Brown. Rodgers is standing on the Packers’ 20 yard line when he threw that football and Brown picked it on the Niners’ 13 yard line. That’s almost like a punt. Except, of course, for the part where Brown returns it 36 yards to midfield.

9:29 The Niners are threatening once again. They face 3rd and 9 on the Green Bay 24 yard line.

9:30 Great move by Colin Kaepernick. The Packers went man to man in the secondary and Kaepernick ran right up the middle for a big first down. And then he spiked the ball, earning a 15 yard taunting penalty. Savvy move, Colin.

9:32 Touchdown San Francisco! Michael Crabtree was in one on one coverage on the outside and he ran a straight go route against Sam Shields. Crabtree gets the inside track on Shields with a little box out move and Kaepernick throws a fastball right in there. 21-14 San Fran with 5:26 left.

9:35 With this awesome night of football coming after eight and a half months of writing, I can’t smile or frown. I can only muster blank stares and nod my head. I would not be able to pass a concussion test right now.

9:37 Great play from both Rodgers and Kaepernick. They’re taking turns one-upping each other and driving their respective teams down the field. I’m a big fan of both guys. Rodgers just completed a big twenty yard pass over the middle to Jermichael Finley. After an unnecessary roughness penalty on San Francisco, the Packers are already on the Niners’ 20 yard line.

9:41 Touchdown Green Bay! Another bullet off the middle, this time to James Jones. Rodgers identified Jones matched up against linebacker NaVorro Bouman as a horrendous mismatch. Jones just ran a straight go route, split the safeties, and Rodgers fired it in. Well done all around. It’s 21-21 with just over two minutes left until halftime. Also, my Twitter feed has roughly 180 unread tweets.

9:44 This is what’s so great about Kaepernick. The Niners are on their own 20 yard line and defensive end Cameron Heyward comes unblocked off the edge. Kaepernick steps up in the pocket to dodge Heyward, juked out to his left and then ran twenty yards for a first down. Who else in the league can make that play? Maybe Cam Newton, definitely Kaepernick, a healthy RG3, and that’s it.

9:50 Mmmmmm.... delicious, brain-restoring, chocolate mousse cake.

9:53 Another great play from Kaepernick. On third down and ten from his own 40, Kaepernick steps up and escapes a collapsing pocket. Then, he runs for a twenty-five yard gain and gets out of bounds. Finally, he puts the exclamation point on his run with an exaggerated tug of his crotch right before the next play. Solid sequence for Kaepernick.

9:56 So let me get this straight, FOX. There’s three seconds left in the half and David Akers’ impending 36 yard field goal is the only play left before halftime. Yet you’re going to make me watch commercials before the kick? Thanks for telling me that Animation Domination is back, guys. By the way, that delicious mousse cake is the only thing that will allow me to come back for the second half of this game. Be back soon.

10:03 OK, one quick thought before I go on break. Colin Kaepernick has 107 rushing yards in the first half alone. That probably doesn’t even crack the top five of crazy things that have happened tonight.

10:20 Aaaaand I’m back. Had to take another quick shower just to feel refreshed enough to finish the night. Writing this book is like training for and running a marathon, or at least what I think training for and running a marathon is like. When you first start, you’re like, “Wow, this is gonna be awesome. I’m finally going to get in shape. Running a marathon is on my bucket list: I’m gonna get up off my couch and do this.” But when you’re on the 23rd mile of that marathon, you’re probably thinking, “Oh my god, what have I done to myself? I feel like puking, I can’t feel my legs, and I’m an idiot for thinking that this is a good idea.” I’m on that 23rd mile right now. I’ve hit the wall.

10:25 Rodgers started his first drive of the second half on the ten yard line at the beginning of my 10:20 entry and is already driving down the field. A beautiful 33 yard completion to Greg Jennings and a 22 yard run off of a draw play by Randall Cobb set the Packers up on the Niners’ 22 yard line. San Fran’s defense is getting spread thin by Green Bay’s five wide looks. It’s exactly what the Packers weren’t able to do in Week One. Now, a wide receiver being covered by a safety or an LB is not an uncommon sight. We’ve got about ten minutes left in the third quarter. Packers are facing third and six from their own eighteen yard line.

10:31 Mason Crosby barely sneaks a 31 yard field goal inside the right goalpost. Both Mason Crosby and Niners’ kicker David Akers have been shaky this year. I could see either one of them taking over the role of this year’s Billy Cundiff: the goat that misses a game-ending kick. 24-24 tie with about half of the third quarter left.

10:34 Tons of grudge match potential in this one. This is a rematch of the “T.O.’s Catch” game, a chance for the Packers to avenge a beatdown that they suffered at the hands of the Niners in Week One, and a chance for Rodgers to take sweet revenge on the team that didn’t take him in the draft.

10:36 Touchdown Niners! Kaepernick fooled the entire Packers’ D with a zone read play. Kaepernick faked the ball to Frank Gore on a shotgun handoff, causing inside linebacker Erik Walden to move in to stop the run (remember what I said about inexperienced ILBs?). Walden didn’t realize that Kaepernick still had the ball until he was ten yards upfield. Nobody was left on the right side of the field to defend a zone option. He had a free ride to the end zone from there. Kaepernick now has 163 rushing yards on 12 attempts. Those numbers are beyond Petersonian. 31-24 Niners, 7:07 left in the third.

10:41 The Packers had third and ten on their own 20 yard line when the Niners tried a stunt with a four man rush. Rodgers recognized it, recognized man coverage, and did his best Colin Kaepernick impression for seventeen yards and a first. This has just been such a great game. Rodgers and Kaepernick have just been trading, “oh, you think that was good? Watch this.” moments for the whole night.

10:45 At 7:00 I typed the words, “nothing interesting has happened in awhile.” Yep, that happened.

10:49 Huge throw from Kaepernick to Vernon Davis. The Niners were on their own 41 yard line and Vernon Davis was matched up against A.J. Hawk in coverage. All that’s missing from this picture is a big neon “THROW HERE” sign. Kaepernick threw an absolutely perfect spiral down the seam to Davis. Hawk did the best that he could in underneath coverage, but the throw was just too perfect. It went for 44 yards down to the Packers’ 15. I always thought that the Niners D would stop Aaron Rodgers enough for the Niners to pull out a win. I had never considered the possibility that Colin Kaepernick, starter for all of two months, could beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at their own game.

10:53 Touchdown San Francisco! Frank Gore plunges it in from two yards away to give the Niners a 38-24 lead with 14:57 left in the fourth. If Green Bay can’t score a touchdown on their next two drives, they’re done. A Randall Cobb botched kickoff and a drive starting on the ten yard line isn’t a good start.

10:59 Green Bay is starting to shift into their hurry-up, short throw offense. This is a pure, unfiltered West Coast scheme. At least three wide on every play, three step drops, and tons of stick/comeback routes. Good switch by Mike McCarthy.

11:03 Wait. so what time is Criminal Minds on again? I didn’t catch it the first twelve times.

11:06 Green Bay punts. Kaepernick has the Niners at midfield with nine minutes left and Frank Gore just took a draw play 26 yards as I was starting to write that sentence. Green Bay’s defense just has no clue what to expect. Guys are out of position for Green Bay, the Niners’ O-Line is doing a tremendous job, and San Fran is just the more physically dominant team.

11:09 Three of the Niners’ five starting O-Linemen are the Niners’ own first round picks. If that’s not a testament to a well-built franchise, I don’t know what is.

11:12 Once again, San Fran is dominating Green Bay up front. No matter how well Aaron Rodgers plays, there’s not a whole lot that the Packers can do about San Fran’s linemen being bigger, stronger, and more athletic than their front seven. This is just classic Niners’ football.

11:16 Touchdown Niners! A two yard plunge by Anthony Dixon makes the score 45-24 in favor of the Niners with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter. Since this game is all but over, I’m gonna call the running diary for tonight. This was by far the greatest day of football we’ve seen this year. I’m exhausted, thirsty, and haven’t peed since the second quarter of Broncos-Ravens. And yet it was still the most fun I’ve ever had watching football. Good night, everyone.