Weeks 11-15

                    WEEK 11

       WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: THERE’S NO TYING IN FOOTBALL!!

   Yep, it’s the dreaded T word. After wasting my life monitoring the Eagles-Bengals 13-13 game in 2008, I had hoped to never hear the word again. I have an unnatural hatred for ties that surpasses just about anyone else’s hatred for ties. I would rather re-live “Patriots 45, Jets 3” while chained by my wrists to the ceiling like Liam Neeson in Taken 2 than sit through a tie game. I purposely set up my fantasy football league to avoid ties. When I tied for first in my Sports Broadcasting Camp’s sports debating competition, I instantly conceded my share of first and settled for second. Time out: You’re darn right I go to a sports broadcasting camp and participate in sports debating tournaments (shoutout to all my friends from SBC!) I also spent the night of the last Homecoming dance at home, watching NFL Matchup for two hours and taking notes. In a related story, there have been no girlfriends to speak of during my high school years. And I especially hate ties in the NFL. Why? Because they’re inconclusive. In the end, football is supposed to be a zero sum game. Somebody must win, and somebody must lose. Who wouldn’t be in support of that? So when something happens to violate that long held truism, it’s usually met with a healthy amount of disgust on my end.

   Why do I mention ties all of a sudden? Because that’s what happened on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers and the St Louis Rams played to a horrifying 24-24 draw after four quarters and one overtime period. What made this game especially aggravating was the fact that both teams unforgivably, irreversibly botched overtime. You know how whenever you go out to eat with adults, there’s that obligatory fight at the end over who is going to pay the check because nobody ever thinks to establish that beforehand? So as a consequence, everybody sits there awkwardly while two people go through the typical, “I’ll get it. No, I’ve got it. Don’t be ridiculous, I’ve got this. I’ll physically toss you out of the restaurant to prevent you from paying. OK, fine, we’ll split it. But I’ve got the check next time, you hear?” routine. That’s exactly what this game was like. I’ve tried (whether successfully or unsuccessfully) to coin the term “Dinner Check Games” to describe those games where each team is practically begging for the other team to win it, but neither one does. Let’s look at the most egregious examples:

• On the first play of overtime, Danny Amendola outran his cornerback on a straight Go route. Sam Bradford hit Amendola in stride, and off to the races he went. He was finally dragged down at the two yard line as his euphoric teammates ran up to congratulate the game’s hero. But....(WARNING: I’m about to channel Lee Corso again).... NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!!! An illegal formation penalty on the Rams called the whole thing back. The left tackle, Rodger Saffold, was lined up off the line of scrimmage and he never reported in as an eligible receiver. This is such an inexplicably dumb thing to have happen that I can’t begin to explain it without smashing my head on my desk a couple dozen times. Why would a coach even think of having a tackle report as eligible in that situation? Or if it wasn’t the coach, then why would the tackle ever think to line up off the line of scrimmage?  Really, the odds are very much against Niners’ HC Jim Harbaugh saying, “First and ten and the Rams are at their own eighteen yard line, I think we should commit a valuable player to covering the 314 pound left tackle in case he runs a route. “ Seriously, why would that ever need to happen? And secondly, how could a player forget to report that he’s eligible? It was either an equally dumb play by the coaching staff and Saffold or an utter fundamentals breakdown by Saffold. Either way, there’s no reason why that should happen.
• David Akers had a chance to win the game for the Niners with a 41 yard field goal. He pushed it wide left. This would be a non-issue if it were an isolated incident, but that is not the case. Akers has now missed six field goals, more than he has missed in all but five of his first fourteen seasons. He is on pace for the lowest field goal percentage of his career. I do have confidence that he’ll rebound and I hope he does, but it’s definitely an alarming trend.
• So later in the OT period, Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein has a chance to win it for the Rams from 53 yards out. He rears back his leg and kicks a beauty. It’s right down the pipe and had about ten yards to spare distance-wise. So the Rams win and now we can all finally go h-NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!!! Sorry, but I thought the second Lee Corso reference made stylistic sense. A delay of game penalty cancelled the field goal. Again, this is possibly the dumbest penalty that you could have in that situation. How complicated is it to set up for a field goal and snap it on time? I don’t know the exact answer, but I do know that just about every team does it without a hitch every Sunday. And in a shocking turn of events that absolutely everybody saw coming, Zuerlein missed his ensuing 58 yard attempt.
• Let me tell you something folks, if you love dumb penalties, then this was the game for you. These teams combined for twenty penalties and 151 penalty yards. Two especially dumb delay of game penalties by the Rams cost them dearly in the OT. And I’m not totally absolving the Niners either. They committed an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, an illegal formation penalty, a couple of holding penalties, an illegal block above the waist, and a roughing the passer penalty to name a few.
• Finally, this is a really concerning sign for the Niners. The most likely scenario is that they just had an off game. That’s fine, everybody has one. But next time a team comes out flat like the Niners did, take note of why. For instance, lets compare this game to the Niners’ 26-3 loss against the Giants. In that game, they turned the ball over three times against an aggressive Giants defense after a long streak of not turning the ball over. As a consequence, the Giants’ starting drive position was better than the Niners’ starting drive position by twenty yards. Thus, the Giants were able to score more efficiently. It was a letdown game, but the Niners didn’t play terribly.

·           In this instance, the Niners played a more undisciplined style of football than they had in any game so far this year. There were enough dumb penalties to go around (7 of them for 66 yards). They allowed over 400 yards of total offense to the Rams. St Louis was able to possess the ball for six more minutes and run eighteen more plays than the Niners. And this was all after their bye week and at home. Granted, this was probably the result of both Alex Smith going down with a concussion and it just being one of those games. But on this day, some Niners fans might have gladly accepted a tie.

               UNLEASH NICK FOLES!!!!!!

It happened by injury, but it’s time. The era lasted two and a half years, but it might be coming to an end. He might have been selected in the third round, but he is now the future of the Philadelphia Eagles. That’s right, it’s time to unleash Nick Foles. Ray, as one of the few totally rational Eagles fans that I know, fought the urge to cry Foles and instead insisted that the Eagles roll with Michael Vick until the end of the season. And while the Eagles were still in playoff contention (their loss to the Saints on Monday Night pretty much knocked them out), that move made sense. But after the Eagles fell to 3-5, there was no reason to keep Michael Vick around as the starting QB. It became quite apparent on the umpteenth fumble that so long as an aging Michael Vick was the quarterback (and Vick of all QBs has a playing style that does not handle aging well. The acceleration is often one of the first things to go from an aging NFL player), the Eagles weren’t going anywhere. The Eagles are a punchless team that is too mistake-prone, and they didn’t have a chance of winning anything significant without at least a minor overhaul. Vick exited Sunday’s loss against the Cowboys with what Andy Reid described as a “pretty serious” concussion, so it looks like Foles will be the start for at least another game or two.

My initial impression of Foles was good, but not great. He performed no better nor worse than you would expect any rookie QB to perform in their first game. His final stat line read 22-32, 219 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His throwing mechanics looked OK for a rookie, but that’s to be expected at this point in his career. He was pretty accurate and did fairly well for himself in the relatively simple offense that he was asked to run. The Eagles incorporated a lot of three step drops into the playbook once he entered the game, and he seemed to handle those very well. Problems really started to arise when the Dallas defense started playing more aggressively and more like a Rob Ryan defense. As soon as Foles entered the game, the Dallas pass rush started using stunts and other blitz patterns that they might not have used with Vick. On Dallas’ game ending sack-strip-score of Foles, linebacker Anthony Spencer lined up parallel to the left tackle. Once the play started, he took a quick step towards the tackle, but then spun around to his left and came free right up the gap between the left guard and the center. By the time Foles sees this, it’s already too late.

   The one criticism that I did have of Foles’ performance, although it’s not at all atypical for a guy making his first professional start, is that he stuck to the script too much. Oftentimes, Foles would get caught up in that rhythm of “one, two, three, throw” so much that he wouldn’t account for defenders in the way of his throw. Cowboys’ cornerback Orlando Scandrick almost had a pick six because Foles never saw him before he threw a particular five yard slant route. On another particular play, Foles threw a pick six that was wiped out by a defensive holding call. He took a three step drop and threw a short screen pass to LeSean McCoy, but failed to account for Anthony Spencer again. Spencer had broken off his pass rush a second earlier and peeled off to cover McCoy, which could not have created an easier interception. See, this is what I mean. He was often too dependent on his first read, and that got him into trouble. However, that’s a pretty fixable problem in the large scheme of things. His capacity to improvise on the fly and go through his progressions are both things that will improve as he gets more comfortable with the offense.

   And that leads me back to my argument that Foles should take over as the starting QB. Granted, I probably jumped the gun when I wanted Foles as the starter in the first five or six weeks of the season. But there’s nothing that should prevent him from being the starter now. The Eagles are already a long way out of the playoffs, so why not start building for the future? Rookie QBs take a good while of in-game action to start to come into their own. It could range from five or six games (Luck), to a couple of years (Eli Manning), to potentially never (JaMarcus Russell). But why wait on finding that out? Putting Foles in as the starter might not only help the Eagles rebuild, but it’s the last chance Andy Reid has of saving his job. Eagles’ owner Jeffrey Lurie made it clear that the team must deliver a winning season this year or else Reid would be out the door in Philly. After firing Juan Castillo, Reid seems to be out of lifelines. Putting in Foles and hoping he goes on a crazy winning streak is just about the only card that Reid has left to play. And while it made some sense to not play it at the beginning of the season, there’s every reason to play it now. Foles has the arm strength and the accuracy to be a productive starting QB, but it’s better to find out what his ceiling is sooner rather than later. The time has come for a quarterback change, and with it comes the beginning of the Nick Foles era.

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 11

• Doug Martin went on SportsNation this week and publicly declared that he hated the nickname “Muscle Hamster” and asked for a new one. The video was then posted on Youtube. Of course, the top comment within minutes was, “New nickname: Muscle Gerbil.” This is about the millionth time that a Youtube comment has made me chuckle and the first time that one appropriate for a book made me chuckle. Also, Muscle Hamster is a pretty bad nickname. I’ll have to think about that one.
• Dumbest play of the day: Phillip Rivers’ game-sealing pick six. The Chargers were down 24-21 and had the ball on third and four from the Bucs’ 23 yard line with most of the fourth quarter left. The ball is snapped and Rivers is flushed from the pocket. He scrambles way off to his right with defenders closing in from all sides. It becomes increasingly clear that he should just run out of bounds and take a slight loss; there’s absolutely no gain to be had on this play. The only receiver in his line of sight is triple covered. If he just ran out of bounds, the Chargers would have had a shot at the game-tying field goal. Does he do the smart thing? Nooooooooo! Instead, he throws the ball off of his back foot while nearly out of bounds and it goes straight to cornerback Leonard Johnson, who was five yards in front of him. It was a Romo-Revis type pick where Rivers apparently thought that if he threw it hard enough, it could just go straight through Johnson. No such luck. It was picked off and run back for an 83 yard touchdown. Why, oh why did I pick the Chargers?
• Speaking of picks, mine went down the hamster tubes last week. I needed a late game comeback (5-0 on the late games, and I’m counting the tie as a win because I hate ties) just to get a little bit above even. If you take nothing else away from this book, besides the fact that turnovers are important, take away that I’m an idiot. Don’t forget it.
• I’m not overreacting to that awful Titans game: I’m taking the Dolphins over the Bills on Thursday Night. The Bills have the worst run defense in the league, and the Dolphins’ running game can’t possibly have three bad games in a row. If there ever were an opponent that was weak to teams who ran the ball and stopped the run, it’s probably the 2012 Buffalo Bills. Miami’s corners have been abused in one on one coverage in recent weeks, particularly down the field. But since they’re playing against the Bills and Ryan Fitzpatrick-Pennington Time Out: Another obscure and untimely football reference from Goldstein! He’s on a roll!, they won’t have to defend much past twenty yards. The Bills are going to see one or both safeties in the box on most plays that are not run out of the spread offense. The Dolphins have been on a losing streak as of late, but there’s just too much talent there to go to 4-6. Unless Tannehill has another awful game, Miami should win. I’ll put them down for a 23-14 win. L Bills 19, Dolphins 14

·                       WEEK 11 PICKS: 11/14/12

CARDINALS AT FALCONS  Gonna freeeeeee faaaaaallll out into nooooothiiiiin. Gonna leeeeeeave thiiiiiis world for a while. AND I’M FREEEEE!!! Did you miss the Free Fallin’ gimmick from about ten pages ago? Wait, you didn’t? Not even a little bit? The Falcons finally have one game in the loss column after falling to the Saints, but there’s no reason why they should lose to an Arizona team with a terrible offensive line, on a five game losing streak, and traveling to the Georgia Dome from the West Coast. People who are starting  Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Julio Jones/Tony Gonzalez on their fantasy team this week are gonna have a great time. I’ll take the Falcons by two touchdowns. W Falcons 23, Cardinals 19

BROWNS AT COWBOYS Somehow, after every dumb thing that has happened to them this year, the Cowboys are not out of the picture. If they win this game, they’ll be one game off the pace of the NFC East leading Giants. And this is one of the rare times that the schedule looks like it’s cutting the Cowboys a break. I can’t wait to see Dez Bryant vs Buster Skrine and Jason Witten vs Any Browns’ safety. This is by all accounts a winnable game for the Cowboys, who are starting to rediscover some of the momentum they had after their week one victory over the Giants. By the way, here’s the rest of the Cowboys’ schedule after this week: home for Washington, home for Philly, at Cincy, home for PIttsburgh, home for New Orleans, at Washington. It’s entirely possible that the Cowboys could go 5-1 over those next six games. It’s not as improbable as you might think. I'm taking Dallas. W Cowboys 23, Browns 20 (OT)

PACKERS AT LIONS  I was tempted to put this game in as my upset special of the week, but I just couldn’t forget how awful Detroit looked against the Vikings last week. The Lions just can’t come up with stops in big moments. They were a stop away from potentially getting back into that Vikings game, but they could never execute. That doesn’t really bode well when a team like the Packers comes to town. The Lions can just never seem to turn it on until the fourth quarter, and the Vikings demonstrated that a single quarter is never good enough to beat the majority of teams. You can’t be a good team and have more points in the fourth quarter (119) than the other three quarters combined (95) over the course of a season. With the Packers coming off a four game winning streak and their bye week, the Lions would need to play the most complete game they’ve played since the beginning of 2011 to win. I just don’t know if they have it in them. I’m taking Green Bay by a touchdown. W Packers 24, Lions 20

BENGALS AT CHIEFS I’m still not entirely sure where to put the Bengals on the spectrum of NFL teams. Are they better than the post-injury Ravens? How much of their win against the Giants last week was them and how much of it was just the Giants having a crappy game? I can see a terrible loss to Kansas City as clearly as I can see a 40 point blowout win. Since KC is going to tank down the stretch for either Matt Barkley or Geno Smith (I don’t know if they actually are, but that would be the smart thing to do), I’m taking Cincy. But I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if I’m wrong. W Bengals 28, Chiefs 6

JETS VS RAMS Tebow Time is desperately needed. I never thought I would hear myself say it, and I may regret the day that I said it. But I can’t use the “you’re going nowhere anyway” argument for Nick Foles and then invalidate it for Tim Tebow. That would just be unfair. Neither quarterback is the long term solution by any means, but the Jets took in Tim Tebow for better or for worse. As long as he’s there, they might as well use him for something other than 2-3 highly predictable plays per game. With an unnamed teammate (totally not Santonio Holmes) taking shots at Tebow and calling him “terrible”, the Jets’ worst nightmare has come true. When the atmosphere in a locker room gets this toxic, nothing short of an overhaul is going to snap a team out of its funk. I’m taking the Rams by 10 UNLESS Tebow comes in mid-game. L Jets 27, Rams 13

EAGLES AT REDSKINS I’ll take Philadelphia here. Foles will probably have an easier time working into a rhythm against a soft Redskins’ secondary. Even better, the Eagles’ receivers will be able to get a fair amount of YAC because the Redskins’ corners are poor tacklers. For once, it might not be a bad idea to go back to some Wide Nine looks to contain RG3 in between the tackles. The key to the game for the Eagles is not letting RG3 extend plays. If he’s allowed to hold the ball for more than two and a half seconds, then RG3’s running ability will become more potent in addition to the heightened potential for uncovered receivers. I think the Eagles will win by a field goal. L Redskins 31, Eagles 6

JAGUARS AT TEXANS Texans. Enough said. W Texans 43, Jaguars 37 (OT)

BUCS AT PANTHERS I’m taking the Carolina Panthers in this one. I’m definitely undervaluing the Bucs because I’m watching my pre-season prediction for them explode in front of my eyes. However, the fact still remains that their cornerback squad without Aqib Talib is going to struggle until they find a way to compensate. The 34-24 final score and Leonard Johnson’s pick six conceals the fact that Philip Rivers marched the ball up and down the field against the Bucs, especially between the numbers. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Rivers was 17-17 with 236 yards and three touchdowns when throwing over the middle of the field. This would indicate poor safety play and a lack of aggressiveness in dealing with physical receivers, exactly the opposite of everything that makes Tampa Bay’s run defense fantastic. I’d expect to see some heavy doses of play action and moving pockets to clear the middle of the field. There’s nothing to indicate that such tactics would not be successful. The pick: Panthers 27, Bucs 20 L Bucs 27, Panthers 21 (OT)

SAINTS AT RAIDERS It’s a matchup of the 29th ranked defense in the league and the 30th ranked defense in the league. Good times! I would not be surprised to see over 800 combined yards of total offense and at least 80 points in this one. Both defenses are completely reeling, but I’m riding the Saints’ recent hot streak. The Raiders are just too undisciplined with regards to penalties and tackling to beat a resurgent Saints’ team. I’ll take New Orleans, 45-35. W Saints 38, Raiders 17

CHARGERS AT BRONCOS I’ll take Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Isn’t it wierd how we could get so far into a season and still have no clue what to think about some of these teams? I still have no idea what I should think about San Diego. I’m leaning more towards thinking that they’re worse than their 4-5 record than anything else. Two of those wins came against the decrepit Kansas City Chiefs and one came against the Raiders when they had a backup long snapper. On the other hand, they probably should have beaten the Broncos the first time they played them. I’ll take the certainty of Peyton Manning over the uncertainty of the San Diego Chargers. W Broncos 30, Chargers 23

COLTS AT PATRIOTS UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK!!!! I’ve decided to take the Colts over the Pats. Some will undoubtedly say that I made this pick because I hate the Patriots, and I plead guilty. But do you remember how terrible the Pats’ secondary was against Buffalo? They let Ryan Fitzpatrick, a decent QB but by no means an elite or complete one, have his way all throughout the game. He ended the day with 337 yards and two touchdowns, which was previously unthinkable for a QB playing at New England unless his last name was Manning. I’m picking against the Pats for the simple reason that their chances of victory shrink as the game goes along. The Pats can still score, but the days of them averaging historic points per game totals are long gone. You get the sense that any team with a half-decent offense can beat the Patriots as long as the score is within ten points at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Seeing as how Andrew Luck has given the most clutch performances so far this year (at Green Bay, Minnesota, Jacksonville even though they lost, Miami, etc), this is going to be a nightmare game for New England if they’re tied with six minutes to go. I’ll take Indy, 30-27, in my second upset special of the week. L Patriots 59, Colts 24

RAVENS AT STEELERS As long as Ben Roethlisberger is out of this game, then the Ravens should come away with a win. It’s a big dropoff from Roethlisberger to Byron Leftwich, and that’s going to play to the Ravens’ advantage. There were different points throughout the season that we’ve thought both of these teams were imposters, but they’ve survived some initial difficulties and now enter this game at 6-3 (Steelers) and 7-2 (Ravens). Now it’s time to see which team is the contender, and which one might be set for a second half fall. Without the crucial component of Ben Roethlisberger, my money’s on a Pittsburgh swoon. I’m taking Baltimore in a 13-9 slugfest. W Ravens 13, Steelers 10

BEARS AT NINERS Jason Campbell. Colin Kaepernick. Feel the tension. Time Out: That joke would have been significantly funnier if Kaepernick didn’t turn into RG3 2.0 This is going to be another defensive struggle along the lines of what Bears vs Texans was. I’m taking the Niners in this game. San Francisco had the most impressive streak in football broken earlier this season (the turnovers streak that I wrote about in Week 3), so there’s no way that they’re going to give the Bears any easy turnovers. The way to beat the Bears is to go toe to toe with them on the offensive and defensive lines. I believe that the Niners have the personnel required to do that. One thing that I’m looking forward to is seeing how many designed runs the Niners call for Kaepernick. While he might not be the most accurate QB, he’s incredibly mobile. Against a hyper-aggressive Bears’ D, that could be a real asset. Maybe the Niners could break out some of the Texans’ misdirection plays and use QB scrambles mixed in with a few designed backfield throwbacks to the tight end. I like the Niners for a rebound. W Niners 32, Bears 7

                        WEEK 12

·                       DOWN GOES GRONK

·       Facebook chat between Matt and I. 9:30 at night.

·       Andrew: Down goes Gronk. He broke his forearm.

·       Matt: ???????????

·       Andrew: Google it

·       Matt: NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

·       Matt: (expletive) Belichick (expletive) WHYYYYYYYYYY?????

·       Andrew: YEEEEEEEEEEEEEES

·       I normally consider it out of bounds to cheer for injuries, but Matt’s the one that did an exaggerated fist pump when Darrelle Revis went down. I warned him that karma would not be kind to such a display of joy over an injury, but he wouldn’t listen. That’s a cautionary tale against rooting for injuries.

   OK, now on to what the Gronk injury means for the Patriots, not just disillusioned Pats fans like Matt. I would argue that Gronk might be nearly equal to Tom Brady in terms of importance to the Patriots’ scheme. Brady’s probably the most important player, but Gronk is either second or third depending on how you feel about Vince Wilfork. And because the Pats’ D is clearly a liability (one good game against the Colts isn’t changing my mind. Do you ever feel comfortable with them defending a fourth quarter lead?), the Pats’ offense has to score at least 30 every game to have a shot at beating good teams. And the way that they usually do that is through attacking the middle of the defense with their two tight end set. Trust me when I say that the two tight end set is nothing new in football. Teams have been running two tight end sets since my Grandpa was in high school and probably before then as well. Passing out of two tight end sets was invented long before I was born. So Bill Belichick did not reinvent the wheel with the two tight end set. The only difference about the Pats’ double tight end set is that they might have found the best TE tandem in the game’s history to execute it. And that all starts with Rob Gronkowski, the third year tight end out of Arizona university. He’s a horrible mismatch for just about every single person he faces, and that kind of player does not come around excessively often in the NFL. The guy is 6’6 and 265 pounds, which is roughly four inches taller and twenty pounds heavier than the guys that are usually assigned to cover him. That fact alone would make Gronkowski a matchup nightmare. But what really separates him from any other blocking tight end is his athleticism. Watch the Youtube video entitled “Rob Gronkowski amazing 10 yard td vs Broncos” and ask yourself whether any other guy his size in the league could make that catch. Gronk dives for a ball that was at least a foot out of his reach, barely manages to tip it to himself, and then catches the tip on the way down to the ground. All the while, he manages to keep his feet in bounds. Most wide receivers that run 4.4’s at the combine and weigh fifty pounds less than Gronk couldn’t do something like that. A presence like Gronk’s can’t be so easily replaced.

   Think about the effect that somebody like Gronk has on a defense. Teams will often commit a double team to Gronkowski: probably a linebacker to play underneath coverage and a safety to play over the top of him. You can imagine what kind of hole that opens up in the middle of the field. That leaves a lot of space underneath for Wes Welker to beat one on one coverage. Or it might clear out the flat for a swing pass to somebody like Danny Woodhead who can follow blockers and gain yardage. Even though they play different positions, Gronk fulfills the same role that Randy Moss used to hold from 07-09: stretch the field vertically, draw double coverage on every play, and act as Brady’s hot route against the blitz. I’d actually argue that Gronkowski is even more deadly than Moss is because certain players are physically incapable of defending him. Unless Gronkowski lines up off the line of scrimmage, it’s impossible to fully commit a guy like Darrelle Revis to him . Moss could be handled as a conventional receiver, but Gronkowski can’t. Just by virtue of him being there, you could take either one or two defenders out of the box. In 2011, he had a higher catch rate (passes caught/targets) than any other tight end or receiver in the league that had at least 100 targets. His catch rate of 73% is absolutely insane considering how often he attracted double coverage, not to mention how often he ran routes that were more complex than most other tight ends are asked to run.

   OK, so now Gronkowski’s out for 4-6 weeks with a broken forearm. You can imagine what that allows opposing defenses to do. Suddenly, the Pats no longer have a guy who demands double coverage. Their upcoming opponent, the Jets, have two hard hitting safeties (LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell) that have a habit of being exposed in coverage. In other words, you could not put a tight end on this Earth that’s more equipped to deal with them than Rob Gronkowski. Take Gronkowski away, and suddenly the safeties are free to roam. Bell and Landry can now help out in run support or double Aaron Hernandez/Brandon Lloyd. They can play closer to the sidelines if they want to without fear that Gronkowski will split them down the middle for a long completion.

·       Losing Gronk will also downgrade the Pats’ run blocking. Nobody ever talks about it, but Gronk is a superb blocker. It’s something that Pats fans won’t notice until it’s gone. And what about Tom Brady? Gronk is usually his hot route against the blitz. One of the biggest reasons why you never blitz Brady is because that will leave Gronk in one on one coverage against either an OLB or a safety. That advantage is no more until the playoffs. Wes Welker usually earns a living by working underneath the deep routes, but now that strategy might be seriously compromised since Brandon Lloyd isn’t shaping up to be the vertical threat that he was a few years ago. Losing Gronk isn’t just a regular injury, it could be an unmitigated disaster for the Pats. He’s a unique player that only Jimmy Graham can come close to matching right now. The Pats are going to scramble to replace him, but they’ll quickly find out that filling Gronk’s role and replacing Gronk are two entirely different things.

·                   LET’S REVISIT THE AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

AFC East- This one still belongs to the Pats as of now. But even though they hold a three game lead over the other teams in the AFC East, I still feel like there are a specific chain of events that could cause them to lose that advantage. Their remaining schedule consists of a road game against the Jets, two games against Miami, home games against Houston and San Francisco, and a road game against Jacksonville (not in that order). It’s absolutely possible for the Pats to lose four of those games without the benefit of Rob Gronkowski. Just remember that this is the team that has blown two leads this season (Baltimore and Seattle), should have blown two more (Denver and Buffalo), and has surrendered almost 300 yards passing per game (30th in the league). Fortunately for the Pats, Matt Schaub is the only remaining quarterback on their schedule that ranks in the top twenty in passing yards, although it does bear mentioning that Niners’ QB Alex Smith does have the third highest quarterback rating in the league. Even though the possibility still exists for the Pats to lose the division, the odds are very much against this happening. In all likelihood, the AFC East will once again be won by the Patriots.

AFC North- The Ravens lead the AFC North by two games, but you wouldn’t know it from their statistics. Out of the big four yardage statistics (passing yards, rushing yards, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed) the Ravens finish in the top half of the league in only one of them: they’re 16th in passing yards. They rank 8th in points scored, but there is a certain degree of artificial inflation that’s associated with that stat. Besides a 44-13 blowout win at home against Cincinnati and a dominating performance against a lackluster (and that’s being kind) Raiders’ defense, the Ravens’ offense has not looked dominant at any point this year. And I remember their thoroughly unimpressive wins over the Chiefs (9-6) and Browns (25-15, Browns would have gone ahead late in the game if not for an illegal formation penalty) much more clearly than I do those other games. Plus, the rest of their schedule is not going to be kind to them. They’re at San Diego (Maybe a win, maybe a loss), home for Pittsburgh (maybe a win, maybe a loss), at Washington (possibly a loss), home for Denver (quite probably a loss), home for the Giants when they’re in late season form (probably a loss), and road for Cincinnati (could go either way). Is there a guaranteed win anywhere on that schedule? A 2-4 record or even a 1-5 record over that stretch is not totally out of the question. If Ben Roethlisberger were back, I’d feel comfortable about picking Pittsburgh to win the division. However, I can’t do that until I know what the deal is with Big Ben’s rib injury. It looks like he might be out for awhile, and I don’t think that this Steelers team has a good enough defense to compromise for an offense with a second string QB and a running game where you never know who the leading guy is. The Steelers have had four different guys lead the team in rushing. In half of their games, the Steelers’ lead rusher has gone for under sixty yards. That’s not going to be good enough to compensate for having an unseasoned QB under center. I’m taking Baltimore, but with a lot of caution.

AFC South- The Texans have a proven identity, a perfect balance of veterans and young players, and a three game lead in the AFC South that they are in no danger whatsoever of losing. Next.

AFC West- The Broncos have this one pretty well locked up. The Chargers had their shot, but then Norv Turner happened. Once you can explain any game to another fan by saying, “(fill in coach’s name here) happened”, then there’s a pretty good chance that (fill in coach’s name here) needs to be fired. Also, I’d like to take this time to point out how abysmal Chargers’ right tackle Jeromey Clary has been. I understand that Von Miller is a tough blocking assignment, but come on. Three sacks allowed? Really? And on one of them, Philip Rivers recognized the blitz and tried to slide his protection right. However, Miller still came unblocked off the edge because Clary never slid right. This kind of crap has been going on all year. Apparently, the Chargers thought it would be a nice idea to leave their hopelessly overmatched right tackle one on one with Miller all game because....... uh, because why? No double teams, wham blocks, chip blocks, or shortened throws of any kind all day. It was a fundamental failure by two crucial parts of the team- the Chargers’ O-Line for not protecting Rivers and the coaching staff for never making adjustments. That’s why the Chargers find themselves struggling to stay alive in the Wild Card race.

Wild Card: The two AFC Wild Card slots are currently occupied by the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everybody else in the Wild Card race except for the Bengals are two spots in back of them. I feel like the Steelers are going to hold on to their spot by virtue of their experience and improved play on defense. Since their Thursday Night loss to Tennessee, the Steelers have not allowed an opponent to accumulate over 300 yards of total offense. I feel like maybe it was too soon to leap to conclusions about the Steelers’ D. If there’s one thing that you should learn from this mistake, it’s that you should never give up on units that have a consistently good track record. Never discount the value of continuity. Speaking of which, it is because of a lack of continuity that I have the Colts missing the playoffs. They have to play the Lions on the road and the Texans twice before the season’s over, and they’ve got a not totally out of it Bills team on their hands this week. For a team with almost no capacity for dominating the line of scrimmage and an abominable defense, that’s a pretty tall order. Plus, I’ve always held the notion that your defense had to either be good or opportunistic to get in the playoffs. The Colts’ defense is neither. They rank 32nd in total DVOA at almost 25% worse than average. They allow an average of 87.5 yards per game to wide receivers beyond the first and second options, which would tell me that they have no depth whatsoever in the secondary. Any half decent offense can and will score on them, as their 26 points per game allowed would show. Rewind the Pats-Colts game and watch Cassius Vaughn attempt to cover somebody like Julian Edelman. It’s because of this weakness that I feel like the Colts are still a year away. For right now, I’d give their spot to the Bengals. A.J. Green has now caught a touchdown pass in ten consecutive games, and his stellar performance has been an unheralded storyline this year. Add in some stellar play from defensive tackle Geno Atkins (few DTs play the two gap technique better than he does) and you have a slightly better than mediocre team that could conceivably get to 9-7. A home game against Oakland, a road game against the Nick Foles led Eagles, a home game against Dallas, and a home game against the Ravens on the last day of the season that may or may not matter for Baltimore should provide four wins. The logjam is starting clear in the AFC, but a bunch of different playoff scenarios are still very possible.

               

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 12

• The schedule is not being kind to the Houston Texans. After that grueling overtime win over the Jags, Houston has to play on only three and a half days’ rest at Detroit. I think this might be the least amount of rest a team has ever gotten between games. The Lions are just about at the end of their rope; they would probably need to win out in order to even have a shot at the playoffs. This means that they’re probably going to look at the tape of the Texans’ coverage against the Jags and say, “Screw it, Stafford’s going to throw the ball sixty times.” Add all of that together and put it in the oven for three hours, and you have a well cooked Texans’ secondary for the early game. I’m taking Detroit in a 35-31 upset. L Texans 34, Lions 31 (OT)
• Some guy on NFL Total Access was doing a “Love/Hate” type segment for fantasy football last week. He recommended that fantasy owners should sit Matt Schaub. You know, the guy that went out and scored 37 points in ESPN Standard Leagues in Week 11. Before I started writing this book, I would have called for Roger Goodell to suspend him from appearing on TV for a week or two. But then again, I am the same person that wrote, “UPSET PICK!!!! COLTS OVER PATRIOTS!!!” before last week. 59 points later, I would come to regret that decision. Guy Who Told People to Bench Matt Schaub, if you’re reading this, I feel your pain.
• I’m taking Dallas over Washington. I went back and forth on this one for about fifteen minutes before coming to the conclusion that the Redskins’ offensive line (25th in adjusted sack rating) can’t block anyone. Why Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Rob Ryan played super-passive defense against Brandon Weeden all game last week is anybody’s guess. Football Outsiders ranks QBs based on DYAR, or Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which essentially means how far above or below replacement level a guy is with respect to things like schedule/offensive line/ etc. Weeden ranks 32nd in the league. And for some reason, the Cowboys decided to regularly drop eight guys into coverage. If they don’t get aggressive and bring pressure here, I don’t know of anything that will prompt them to do so. I’m going with Dallas over Washington by a field goal on the assumption that Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will be spending a little more time in the Skins’ backfield. L Redskins 38, Cowboys 31
• UPSET PIC- nope just kidding. I tried to make myself believe in the Jets’ chances of coming back and pulling off an epic playoff run for the ages, but I ultimately failed. Even though Gronk is out, I can’t bring myself to believe in the Jets again. This goes beyond the fact that the Pats have Tom Brady and the Jets do not. This goes beyond the fact that the Jets have Mark Sanchez and the Pats do not. This is about believing that your team has the acumen to win big games. After watching a talented and uniquely confident team disintegrate in one and a half seasons, I’m not being fooled again. Back in Week 9, I said in that I could, “see the writing on the wall for the rest of the season.” The writing is still there. The script hasn’t changed. I’m not being goaded into believing that the Jets are going to climb out of a hole just because they beat the last place Rams on the road. Everything changed in 2009 and 2010, and then everything stayed the same in 2011 and 2012. These are still the Belichick-Brady Patriots. And these are still the same old Jets. But I’ll still be watching, just in case. W Patriots 49, Jets 19

·               WEEK 12 PICKS:11/21/12

·       RAIDERS AT BENGALS The Bengals are another team that I’ve crapped on for at least the last five or six weeks. And just like the Bucs, I’m starting to come around on the Bengals as a legitimate playoff contender purely because of A.J. Green and the unabashed mediocrity of the AFC. Speaking of A.J. Green, he should go crazy against the Raiders’ secondary. They’ve allowed three passing touchdowns in back to back games, and it’s a good bet that the trend will continue with A.J. Green facing off against Joselio Hanson. Bengals: 34-27. W Bengals 34, Raiders 10

BILLS AT COLTS UPSET PICK!!!! Everybody (myself included) was reminded of how bad the Colts’ defense is. Tom Brady had them any way he wanted them all game long. And while Ryan Fitzpatrick is a long way off from Brady (understatement alert), isn’t it possible that he lights up the Colts’ D? This game is going to be played in a dome, which is preferable to the 37 degrees and rain that is forecasted for Buffalo on Sunday. That’s not going to give Fitzpatrick a little bit of a boost? And is there anybody on the Colts’ defense that can run down and tackle C.J. Spiller in the open field? It seems likely that the answer to those questions are yes and no, respectively. I’m taking Buffalo, 32-29. L Colts 20, Bills 13

STEELERS AT BROWNS That’s right folks, it’s time for Charlie Batch! The last time he started a significant game was 2010, but don’t let that fool you. He’s the third string QB, 37 years young (35 on a good day), has a career completion percentage of 56.3%, and ESPN Fantasy Spin calls inserting him into the lineup, “so crazy it just might work”. Did you hear that, folks? So crazy it just might work! You know what? I think it’ll work just fine against the Browns. I’m embracing the power of Batch and picking the Steelers to eke out a 13-10 win. Batch for life!! L Browns 20, Steelers 14

BRONCOS AT CHIEFS If I’m going to get carpal tunnel, I’m going to get it analyzing worthwhile games. I’m going with Denver by at least 30 and the Broncos’ D to score at least twenty fantasy points. W Broncos 17, Chiefs 9

SEAHAWKS AT DOLPHINS I think that the Dolphins’ time is on the wrong side of running out. They had golden opportunities to beat the Colts, Titans, and Bills, yet they couldn’t get the job done. Their offense has never looked worse than it did in Buffalo. They gained under 200 total yards, which is nothing short of abominable when you consider that the Bills’ D let up 550 yards of total offense in consecutive games earlier this year. Also, the fact that the Dolphins averaged 2.5 yards per carry against the worst rushing defense in the league isn’t an encouraging sign. Seattle’s third ranked defense is just about the last thing the Dolphins wanted to see right now. I’m taking Seattle to get a much needed road win. L Dolphins 24, Seahawks 21

FALCONS AT BUCS Knowing my luck, the Bucs’ bandwagon is going to capsize the instant I jump on it. Therefore, I need to see a win over a good team from Tampa before I’m sold. The teams the Bucs have beaten during their four game winning streak have a combined record of 15-25. I don’t think it’s unfair to reserve judgment on the Bucs for one more week while we see how they handle Atlanta. My first guess: not well. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the league in passing yards allowed per game. They’re going to have to put a nearly end of the line Ronde Barber on either Roddy White or Julio Jones. And Mark Barron seems to occasionally struggle in covering good tight ends, so I have no idea who is defending Tony Gonzalez. It seems like the only way the Bucs win this game is to turn it into a shootout, which plays right into the Falcons’ pass heavy style. I’m taking Atlanta by a score of 35-24. W Falcons 24, Bucs 23

VIKINGS AT BEARS I thought about an upset here, but then I remembered that I don’t have any confidence in the Vikings either. I’m not quite sure that it matters who the Bears’ QB is, because there’s not a ton of difference between a healthy Jason Campbell and a less than 50% Jay Cutler. I feel like the Bears’ defense got its bad game out of the way against the Niners last week. With Percy Harvin inactive for the Vikes, Christian Ponder has nobody to throw the ball to whatsoever. I’d expect a lot of eight and even nine man fronts from the Bears. Without Harvin, Minnesota is a one-dimensional offense before it even steps out on the field. That might work just fine against Detroit, but not against the opportunistic defense of the Chicago Bears. I’m going with Chicago, 19-12. W Bears 28, Vikings 10

TITANS AT JAGUARS I would go with my trademark all caps “Upset Pick”, but I can’t even fake getting excited about this game. I’m going with the Jaguars purely because of how good backup QB Chad Henne was last week. I wish I could provide more reasons for why I’m taking the Jags, but discussing this awful game is slowly sapping away my will to write this book. I need to move on. W Jaguars 24, Titans 19

RAVENS AT CHARGERS We’ve got an overrated 8-2 team traveling cross country to face a team that usually comes alive whenever its coach is in jeopardy of being fired. Sounds like an easy upset pick to me. This is another recurring script that we’ve seen over the years. Just when it looks like the Chargers are completely hopeless, they usually dominate somebody. It happened in 2011 when they smashed a Ravens team that would eventually go to the AFC Conference Championship. It happened in 2010 when the Chargers started 2-5, then went on a four game winning streak. They started 2-3 in 2009 before going on a little eleven game winning streak. I’m telling you, Norv Turner has more lives than a cat. So I wouldn’t be the least surprised to find the Chargers winning by two touchdowns. I’ll take San Diego. L Ravens 16, Chargers 13 (OT)

NINERS AT SAINTS I feel like the Saints are rapidly gaining momentum. Even more concerning is the fact that everybody is diving for a spot on the Saints’ rebuilt bandwagon after they casually mauled one of the worst pass defenses in the league last week. Meanwhile, everybody seems to forget that the Niners beat an infinitely better team in no less of an impressive fashion. I feel like this game will be close due to the fact that the Saints’ O-Line is worlds ahead of the Bears’ O-Line that San Fran faced last week (8th in pass blocking DVOA as opposed to 32nd). The Saints’ offensive successes over the last few weeks have masked their continued woes on the defensive side of the football (31st in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in passing yards allowed). I don’t think it’s particularly blasphemous to ask for another good game from New Orleans before buying into the whole “New Orleans is back!” movement. I’m going with San Fran, 27-21. W Niners 31, Saints 21

RAMS AT CARDINALS And I’m freeeeeeee falllin now I’m, free fallin, FREE FAAAALLLLIIN. OK, I’m tired of this gimmick. I have driven that joke into the ground. I’m picking the Cardinals to win this game purely because I don’t want to have to write those lyrics ever again. Come on, Arizona. Win this one so I don’t have to ruin Tom Petty’s masterpiece for the rest of my life. L Rams 31, Cardinals 17

PACKERS AT GIANTS Now this is a quality game. Somehow, NBC’s Sunday Night Football always manages to land way better games than Thursday Night Football or Monday Night Football. This game is no exception. The Giants are trying to fool everyone again with a big November swoon (9-12 in November since 2007) before turning on the jets in December, like they did in 2007 and 2011. Part of that November slump probably entails losing to the Packers, who are currently on a five game winning streak. The weakest part of the Giants right now is the secondary, where pedestrian corners Prince Amukamara and Corey Webster have had trouble against some of the league’s faster receivers. Vincent Jackson (5 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown), A.J. Green (7 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown), and Dez Bryant (4 catches for 85 yards) have all had big games against the Giants’ secondary. In certain games, the Giants just decide, “we can’t effectively stop this team; we’re just going to match them point for point and force a turnover on the last drive.” That’s pretty much how they beat Tampa Bay in Week 2, and that might be what they’re going to have to do in this one. I’m not convinced that they’re going to be able to do it. I’ll go with Green Bay by ten points. L Giants 38, Packers 10

PANTHERS AT EAGLES  (Cue The Final Countdown music and the super-deep voiced promoter) Ron Rivera. Andy Reid. One of them stays. THE OTHER ONE LEAVES. View the Don’t Fire Me Bowl on Pay-Per View this Monday. Wow, this game is awful. Philadelphia might be pulling a 2011 Bucs style tank job. I had previously thought that the Eagles had bottomed out in that Monday Night loss against the Saints, and then the Redskins game happened. At this point, I need to see a convincing win from the Eagles before I even consider picking them again. I’ll grab Carolina, 31-14. W Panthers 30, Eagles 22

                    WEEK 13

    HOW TO WATCH EVERY GAME ON SUNDAY: THE HIGH SCHOOL EDITION

      In a perfect world, we’d all be able to watch every game every Sunday. You know, with a nice flatscreen TV, nachos, and buddies. But this is not a perfect world. There are dangers around every corner that could prevent you from getting maximum mileage out of your football Sundays. Luckily, I’m here to help. I’ve devise- wait, why do I feel like I’ve written this paragraph before? Time Out: See the book for the first time I wrote a “How to Watch” section. Anyways, here are the ten ways for people ages 14-18 (and probably younger) to ensure they spend their Sundays watching every single game. For any adults reading this, just use your imagination and adapt some of these tricks to fit your own needs.

1. Get your homework done before the games start. Remember, the key to making sure you watch all of the games is thinking ahead. Unless you plan to start writing a football book (in which case, “I’m researching for the book” is a perfectly valid excuse), you have to think ahead. It wouldn’t kill you to hit the books on Saturday instead of Sunday. Or if you don’t mind getting up a little early, do homework on Sunday morning. It’ll make football watching a lot more enjoyable if it’s all done.

2. If your parents are in the room and you’re on the computer, pull up a word document and type something that looks like homework. Type math equations, list the presidents, it doesn’t matter. Just give the appearance that you’re busy and working hard. Carry around a textbook and look at it from time to time in front of your parents so they know how busy you are. Then, come Sunday morning, say something along the lines of, “After eight long hours, all of my homework is done.” Then, when you spend the whole day watching football, your parents will know that you deserve a day of just hanging out before you go back to school. Well thought out, no?

3. Seriously, order Sunday Ticket. Get the Red Zone channel, listen to Andrew Siciliano take you through the games, and high five yourself as you see every single touchdown. It might be a tough sell for your parents (I had to write some dumb book just to get Sunday Ticket), but try to convince them by doing extra chores/paying for part of it/etc. Trust me, you’re gonna love it if you’re an NFL diehard.

4. Use the same strategy that you did on Thanksgiving Time Out: Once again, see the book for details. and volunteer for chores that are relatively brief if you have to do something. For instance, taking the dog for a walk is a preferable chore to cleaning up the yard for two reasons. Firstly, it can be done in fifteen or twenty minutes. And secondly, it can be done while holding and looking at your mobile device if need be. Anything that can take you away from the TV for a quarter or more is a no go. In my neighborhood, recycle is taken on Sundays and it takes between 30-40 minutes to do depending on the week. Do it before the game.

5. If you’ve accomplished something significant, talk it up. If you’ve gotten an A on a big test, make sure your parents know about it. If you’ve done a chore that you know needed to be done but they haven’t asked you to do it yet, make sure you point out what a great job you did. So when your parents notice that you haven’t done anything productive between the hours of one o’clock and seven thirty, they’ll be less likely to ask you to do things. It’s all about creating a case for why you need a six hour break to use on something that won’t help with grades, pay for college, or make things look prettier. Treat it like a court case and argue point by point if need be.

6. Don’t miss significant things for football. It’ll only lead to a lot of bad blood down the road. Don’t try to get things that are scheduled on Sunday rescheduled. Sundays are for football. You know that, and every football fan alive knows that. But there are non-sports fans in every family that treat Sunday as a *gasp* regular day. It’s your job to treat Sunday as a football day without letting them know you think of it as such. Therefore, Sunday brunches and the like are going to be inevitable. Don’t fight it. You can’t win every battle as a high school student, so focus on winning the war.

7. If you have members of your family that are sports fans, appeal to them. Ask them, “Hey (Insert family member’s name), you want to watch the game with me?” The more family members that are invested in football, the less likely that it will be interrupted. If you don’t have any sports fans in your family, then some of these tricks are significantly more difficult to pull off.

8. You have to pace yourself. A day with football showing from 1:00 to 11:00 is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t spend all day super-glued to the couch, because you will eventually grow tired of football if you do that. Get up, walk around the house every hour or so, get some blood circulating. It sounds a little bit ridiculous, but I feel like I’m just about done with football at 5:30 most Sundays. After I get up and walk around for a little bit- just fifteen minutes away from the TV- I’m good to go for the rest of the night. Do likewise.

9. Seriously, get Sunday Ticket and do everything early. I’m repeating both of these because they’re super important.

10. It’s bad karma to completely avoid your loved ones on Sunday. Not walking the dog on Sundays will guarantee that your team loses. Trust me on that one. So don’t forget to spend a little bit of time with your family on Sundays. You know, before the games.

                                           THE WRONG YEAR TO BOTTOM OUT

·           There’s a lot of hype around the teams at the top of the league. It looks like this is the Texans’ year, no it’s Matt Ryan’s breakout year, I think the Giants are going to repeat, I choose D: None of the Above, yadda yadda, etc. But nobody’s paying attention to another very important group of teams. The worst teams in the league deserve at least a little bit of attention. They’re the future locations for the stars of tomorrow, after all. 2011 was one of the rare times that the Race to the Bottom was nearly as heralded as the competition for the Lombardi Trophy. The Suck for Luck sweepstakes was a genuinely interesting contest whose winner (or loser) would get to draft the best quarterback prospect since John Elway. If your team came up short in Sucking for Luck, the second place prize was OK. Some guy named Robert Griffin. A few folks in the greater DC area might have heard of him. Third prize is, you’re fired. Whoops, I was thinking of Glengarry Glen Ross. Time Out: TWO Glengarry references in the same book! I’m proud of myself.

   But maybe the lack of attention is warranted this year.The race for last place isn’t as talked about because the draft class isn’t as good as the one we saw in 2011. There is no best QB in the last twenty years. There is no best left tackle prospect in the last decade. Matt Barkley, the projected number one pick before the season started, is currently projected to go in the middle of the first round. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith is the consensus (and that’s using the word loosely) number one pick right now, and he pretty much came out of nowhere after an eight touchdown game against Baylor (119th in the country in points allowed). He followed up that performance by doing just about nothing else of note. Seriously, that’s it. Before the season, he was projected as a second or third round pick. Throw in one great game against a crappy defense and-presto!- you’re number one on all of the draft boards. He’s certainly not a bad QB prospect, and I feel like he’ll go on to find his share of success. Still, his draft stock still has a loooooong way to go before it gets to the heights of Luck and RG3. I don’t think it will ever get to that point.

In today’s NFL, draft classes are defined by the quarterbacks they include unless a transcendent prospect at a different prime position is available. And according to SI’s Peter King, the available quarterbacks are, “sinking like stones in the eyes of football scouts.” So we know that the market for the league’s premier position is going to be thin. Another good way to measure the relative strength of a draft is to look at the amount of certainty. Ask yourself: is there a consensus number one? Top three? Top five? In the 2012 draft, there was a defined top six and a relatively stable top half of the board. As I look over the 2013 draft, I feel more and more like there are a ton of players that could turn a mediocre team into a good one, but there are no truly league-altering prospects. No player illustrates this better than Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o. Time Out: This is before the whole “Catfish” story broke. I can’t imagine the field day that the psychologists had with him at the NFL Combine. Walterfootball.com, a site that releases updated mock drafts throughout the year among other things, calls Te’o, “the best prospect in a weak draft class.” Many scouts have him as either the number one pick or in the top three. He may or may not be the best player, but he’s definitely in the discussion. However, Sigmund Bloom, co-host of “The Audible” (a top rated football podcast on iTunes) wrote an article for bleacherreport.com that broke down Teo’s game. He ended that article with the following conclusions:

Te'o is an attractive prospect on some levels. He is a big, physical linebacker who is not a liability in coverage. He is a durable, stalwart starter and tough leader who will be a stabilizing influence on a defense. However, the elite physical tools and preternatural instincts that turn inside linebackers into first-round picks are just not there.

Te'o might be thought of as a first-rounder right now, but once he's put under a microscope this spring, he'll find his home in the second or third round.

   Obviously, this is just one man’s opinion, and on the Bleacher Report to boot. It’s subject to a lot of disagreement among professional football scouts. But do you ever remember a respectable football source dissenting that much about Andrew Luck’s position in the draft? Or Matt Kalil’s? How about Morris Claiborne’s? The fact that an inside linebacker, the sixth or seventh most popular position to draft (behind QB, RB, WR, LT, MLB, DT, and possibly CB), is being talked about as a potential first pick speaks to how shallow this draft really is.

   The main attractions of the 2013 draft are pass rushers and interior linemen. Walter Football has no less than fifteen front seven players being taken in the first round. Almost an entire half of the 2013 draft (if things unfolded the way the most recent mock drafts project) would be made up of defensive ends, defensive tackles, and linebackers. Even more amazingly, seven of the projected top ten are also front seven players. The teams that are projected by Walter Football to get those top ten draft picks are as follows: the Chiefs, the Jags, the Raiders, the Browns, the Eagles, the Panthers, the Bills, the Chargers, the Jets, and the Titans. Exactly four of those teams have stable quarterback situations. Six of those teams are in the bottom half of the league in sacks, and only four are in the bottom ten in rushing yards allowed. Out of all of those teams, the Raiders are the only one that I’d say is merely a defense away from contention. The rest of those teams have major needs on the offensive side of the ball as well. The upshot of all of this is that it seems like the supply of defensive players is higher than the demand. You know how on a cruise, there’s a seemingly unlimited quantity and variety of food, but none of it is that great? That’s what we have going on with the linemen in this draft class. There’s a cruise food buffet of offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and linebackers: endless varieties and skill sets, but none of them seem that great. Therefore, the few offensive players that are available (Smith, Luke Joeckel, Keenan Allen, etc) will have artificially inflated stock come draft day purely because they fit a dire need and can be more immediately useful. If I had to make a prediction about the 2013 season based solely on the 2013 draft class, I’d expect to see a lot of the bad teams from 2012 remain bad. By all accounts, 2013 is the wrong year to bottom out.

            ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 13

• The Jets have lost Revis, Holmes, seven games out of eleven, maybe Sanchez, maybe Rex Ryan, hopefully Mike Tannenbaum, and definitely their dignity. But the latest casualty of this season might hurt the most out of all of them. Legendary Jets’ fan Fireman Ed has announced that he is hanging up his hat and retiring. Ed Anzalone, the longtime face of Jets’ nation, has cited confrontations with other Jets fans as the reason for his retirement. Ed says, “The fact that I chose to wear a Mark Sanchez jersey this year and that fans think I am on the payroll— which is an outright lie — have made these confrontations more frequent.” He will still attend games, although not in his usual fireman attire.
• Jason Babin has been released by the Eagles and claimed by the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week. I feel like it was the right move for both teams. Babin always seemed like a “sacks only” guy to me. His speed rush was one of the only above average parts of his game. Ray just about pulled his hair out by the fistful every time Babin got called for a dumb penalty or was effectively contained by a single blocker when a run came to his side. He spent an entire afternoon bus ride convincing me that Jason Babin was not as good as his stats, and I wholeheartedly agree. It’s time for the Eagles to rebuild and cut costs. That starts with getting rid of Babin’s 5.5 million dollar per year contract. On the other hand, it feels like this is a smart move by the Jags. What obligations are they under salary cap wise? They’re required to pay the remaining 1.69 million dollars on his contract, but nothing at all beyond that. It’s a smart, low-risk, high potential signing. If they can convince Babin to stay on a cheap contract for another one or two years, the Jags will be getting a premier pass-rushing specialist at a price that’s well below market value.
• Moreover, this is how teams are built from the ground up. History has shown that the best teams make low risk free agent bets, invest in draft picks, and spend their money at the top and bottom of the market instead of the middle. The average team loves Jason Babin’s stats and skills, the smart team loves Jason Babin’s stats and skills at this price. It’s all about minimizing risk while maximizing reward. And here are two franchises that provide a striking contrast in that regard. The Eagles definitely did the “spend your money at the top of the market” thing correctly. But they overextended themselves with too many high priced signings. Michael Vick’s huge contract extension, the Babin contract, Nnamdi Asomugha’s eight million dollars per year contract, and Cullen Jenkins’ five million dollars per year contract all happened within one offseason. When a team does that, they tie themselves to a wall in terms of the salary cap. Options is the name of the game when it comes to running a franchise. The fewer options a team has, the harder it is to rebuild. Meanwhile, look at what Jacksonville has done. Already, they’ve refused to give Maurice Jones-Drew a new contract because they probably know the effect that age has on an RB’s production. MJD’s contract runs out when he is 28 years old, and to give him a new long term deal at this point would have tied the Jags to a big money investment in somebody who will be 32 when his deal runs out. The normal age for the wheels falling off of a running back is 30. Remember that Billy Beane quote about how big contracts for old veterans are team killers? Time Out: If you haven’t bought the book, you probably don’t. SO JUST BUY THE THING ALREADY! OK, I apologize for yelling at you through your computer screen, especially if you have already bought the book. Meanwhile, they’re taking small chances on people that have already shown promise. Just like Jason Babin. Smart moves.
• I’m taking Atlanta over New Orleans. Even though the New Orleans defense has improved over the course of the season (any trend, no matter how extreme, usually regresses or progresses towards the mean in the latter half of the year), they have still given up 500 more yards of total offense than the next closest team. Let’s not forget that the Falcons came within a yard of emerging from the SuperDome with a W the first time these two teams met. No matter how bad Atlanta has looked in any given game this year, they’ve always found a way to win. This game will not be an exception. I’ll take Atlanta, 34-31. W Falcons 23, Saints 13

                 WEEK 13 PICKS: 10/28/12

    JAGUARS AT BILLS Great start to the early games. I have nothing remotely interesting to say about either team. Buffalo’s season is all but done, which gives it something in common with Jacksonville’s season. I feel like Jacksonville’s hitting just enough of a hot streak to become the sneaky bad team over the last five or six games. We saw it with Miami and Arizona last year and Cleveland in 2010. I think it’s Jacksonville’s turn. I’m taking them for a 26-20 and at least one touchdown pass of over 50 yards to either Justin Blackmon or Cecil Shorts. L Bills 34, Jaguars 18

SEAHAWKS AT BEARS I feel like this is it for Seattle. They blew two easily winnable games against Miami and Detroit. Unless they beat Chicago, their season might be coming to a close. A 6-6 team might have to win out in order to get the sixth seed in the NFC. For that to happen, the Seahawks need vastly improved quarterback play on the road from Russell Wilson. Check out these stats:

     Russell Wilson at home: 11 TDs, 0 INTs, 8.42 Yards per attempt, 122.0 passer rating

      Russell Wilson on the road: 6 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.60 Yards per attempt, 75.5 passer rating

    Oh, and the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road. One of the best measures of a good team is their ability to win quality games on the road. The Seahawks have consistently shown that they’re not able to do that. I’m taking Chicago, 28-16. L Seahawks 23, Bears 17 (OT)

COLTS AT LIONS I’ve done a terrible job of picking Colts’ games this year. I was all in on them the one week that I shouldn’t have been (the Pats game), and then out on them for the weeks that I should have liked them (just about every other week). All I can do is play the matchups, and this looks like a bad one for the Colts. It doesn’t seem like they have anybody on their roster that can effectively cover Calvin Johnson. The tallest cornerback on Indy’s roster is six inches shorter than Johnson. The Lions can play just as well in the fourth quarter as the Colts can. And the Colts don’t have anybody that can rush the passer and prevent Matt Stafford from throwing the ball deep over and over again. In essence, there’s nothing that the Colts can do to take the Lions out of their element. I’m taking Detroit by ten. L Colts 35, Lions 33

PANTHERS AT CHIEFS I think I might have thrown up on my keyboard after scrolling through this week’s matchups and seeing this travesty. Is this going to be the worst game of the year? Cam Newton is the only thing preventing it from turning out as such. The only reason that this game might be notable is because there could be number one pick ramifications. Currently, KC holds the number one pick. Carolina still has an outside chance at the number one pick. The ESPN headline will say that they’re both playing for pride. I’ll take Carolina to win and the Red Zone channel to show less than ten minutes of this game. L Chiefs 27, Panthers 21

VIKINGS AT PACKERS This game is going to come down to offensive explosiveness. Greg Jennings has been cleared to play this week for the Pack, which just gives Aaron Rodgers another weapon in his arsenal. On the Minnesota side of this game, Percy Harvin has not been cleared to play. With Harvin not there, QB Christian Ponder doesn’t have a whole lot of options for people to throw to. His second option is usually tight end Kyle Rudolph, and he has been good yet inconsistent (take it from a guy who has Rudolph on two fantasy teams). If the Vikings have any chance of winning this game, they’re going to have to get an early lead and then keep the ball on the ground. The more time the ball spends in Christian Ponder’s hands, the more room there is for error. And that’s what this game comes down to. The Packers could be trailing by two touchdowns entering the fourth and still win. The Vikings have to be up by a touchdown early to establish any kind of offense. Minnesota’s pass rush will stall some Green Bay drives and keep things close for awhile, but I feel like there’s just going to be too much Aaron Rodgers for Minny to handle. I’m taking Green Bay. W Packers 23, Vikings 14

TEXANS AT TITANS I feel like this one is going to be closer than people think. Divisional games are always tough, especially divisional road games. The Texans are coming off of two games that went deep into overtime, which means that the Titans are going to be the more well rested team. Chris Johnson has started to roll in the last few weeks. In fact, his Week 12 game against Jacksonville marked the first time since Week 5 that he averaged under 4 yards per carry. Still, 21 carries for 80 yards isn’t bad at all. If the Titans can establish a ground game early they can stay in this one. With a game against the Patriots looming in Week 14, it’s not unreasonable to think that the Texans will simplify their playbook and do just enough to get a win. I’ll take Houston by three. W Texans 24, Titans 10

PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS The New England Patriots have scored 407 points so far, almost 100 more than the next best team (the Texans, who have scored 327). If New England averages 38.6 points per game for the remaining five weeks of regular season, they will score 600 points and surpass their own record for most points scored in a season, which was set in 2007. It’s not unreasonable to think that they’ll get there. Tom Brady and the Patriots are in a state that I know all too well. This is what happens with the Brady era Pats over the last seven or eight weeks of a season: they go into wrecking ball mode. They have not lost a single game past Week 10 since 2009. Week 15 of 2009 was the last time that the Pats were held under twenty points past Week 10. This is what makes the Patriots terrifying. No matter how much it looks like they’re slipping, no matter how bad any single unit of their team has looked up until the second half of the season, they reach another level when the pressure is on. It’s like Vin Diesel takes over the team and pushes the nitrous oxide button. The Noz will be in full effect on Sunday as the Pats run over the Dolphins, 37-21. W Patriots 23, Dolphins 16

 NINERS AT RAMS It’s official, the Colin Kaepernick era has begun. I think it was the right move for Harbaugh to bench Alex Smith. If there’s a better option on the roster, then that’s who should start. It doesn’t matter if he got the job due to the starter getting injured. There are enough teams with crappy QB situations that will give Smith a shot. On a different note, I like what I’ve seen from Kaepernick so far. His pocket awareness is much more advanced than I would have expected out of a QB at his experience level. He avoids sacks and gives the Niners an added dimension to their offense. The one rap on the Niners’ offense was that they could be contained within about fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage. The Niners had no way of beating defenses over the top. That all changes with Kaepernick at QB. He provides the Niners with even more options on offense, which is downright scary for every team in the NFC. The Niners should win this one easily. L Rams 16, Niners 13 (OT)

 CARDINALS AT JETS I can’t keep up the Free Fallin’ gimmick. It had its day in the sun, but I’m not sure I can continue to antagonize the five people who have made it to this point. For the first time in five weeks, I’m going with the Jets. As pitiful as they’ve looked, the Jets are capable of beating semi-talented teams when they’re at home. Case in point: their blowout win over Indianapolis. Arizona’s losing streak has now reached seven games and they have Ryan Lindley starting at QB behind quite possibly the worst offensive line in the league. Oh, and they’re flying east for a one o’clock game. Always be wary of west teams flying east for one o’clock games. There’s one other interesting thing to take not of. Coming into the Pats’ game, the Jets actually ranked 9th in total defensive DVOA. That’s nothing short of amazing when you consider that they have exactly zero good pass rushers and Antonio Cromartie is their only above average defensive talent. They got to that point by playing average and below average QBs like a grand piano. Fitzpatrick, Tannehill, an early season Andrew Luck (I have a feeling that the game would turn out much differently if it were played today), and Sam Bradford have all been nullified by Rex’s stunt-heavy blitz schemes. I don’t think Ryan Lindley will provide much more resistance. I’ll take the Jets by a touchdown. W Jets 7, Cardinals 6

BUCS AT BRONCOS When picking games, you need to factor in matchups. Also, it’s helpful to look at matchups. Finally, you should probably consider matchups. That’s the best picking advice that I can give you. Instead of looking at the game as a whole, look at the individual battles within the game. This one is a good example of that. On the surface, the Bucs look like a team that can give the Broncos some trouble. They’re starting to hit their stride late in the season and are one of the NFL’s hottest teams. They lost by one point to the Atlanta Falcons, who are currently tied for the best record in the league. So you’d assume that this is a classic trap game. But the fact still remains that the Bucs’ pass defense is dead last in the league. The league’s great equalizer is the deep pass, as the Bucs found out last week. They were winning 13-10 with eight and a half minutes left in the third when Matt Ryan bludgeoned them over the head with an eighty yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones. Matty Ice ended up throwing for 353 yards and a total QBR of 84.4. There’s no reason to expect Denver to do much differently this week. I’m taking Denver, 35-27. W Broncos 31, Bucs 23

BROWNS AT RAIDERS Can I interest you in an enlightening review of a game between two of the five worst teams in the league? I can’t? Fantastic. Raiders win, on to the next one. L Browns 20, Raiders 17

BENGALS AT CHARGERS The biggest thing that I left out of this week’s earlier sections was the 4th and 29 play against San Diego. I think it perfectly sums up the Norv Turner era Chargers. Let me explain. The Chargers are leading the Ravens 13-10. Baltimore has the ball at 4th and 29 from their own 37 yard line with under two minutes left in the fourth. Things could not get more hopeless for Baltimore. The play starts and Joe Flacco throws a harmless little dumpoff pass to Ray Rice. It might have traveled two yards past the line of scrimmage. Rice catches it and starts to turn upfield. Immediately, three San Diego Chargers all take terrible angles to the ballcarrier and miss the tackle. One of them, Eric Weddle, is injured after Ravens’ receiver Anquan Boldin puts an illegal chop block on him. Of course, the chop block isn’t called because these are the Chargers. Rice cuts left into the open field and rumbles towards the first down line. He dives across it and appears to be right at the markers. The call on the field is first down, a replay review nullifies that first down and spots the ball a yard back, and the re-measurement is still a first down anyways. San Diego goes on to lose that game. How am I supposed to feel good about picking the Chargers after that? There are some things that teams just don’t recover from, and I feel like that was one of those moments. I’ll take Cincy. W Bengals 20, Chargers 13

STEELERS AT RAVENS After last week’s performance, which was akin to spitting in the face of anyone hoping for a semi-entertaining game, I can’t pick the Steelers in good conscience. As long as Charlie Batch remains the Steelers’ starting QB, things are just going to continue sliding downhill. I wish this year would have had more entertaining Steelers-Ravens games, but they don’t. The entire Pittsburgh offense has been a complete mess for two weeks now, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to get back on track until Ben Roethlisberger returns from his injury. I’ll take Baltimore. L Steelers 23, Ravens 20

EAGLES AT COWBOYS As long as we’re on a two game streak of me saying, “I can’t feel good about picking (insert bad team of choice here)”, I might have to go ahead and use it a third time. I can’t feel good about picking the Eagles. It’s heresy to pick the late 2000s Cowboys in important December games, but what other options do I have? The Eagles are a team that has completely imploded. There’s nobody on this team that can be depended on to perform well consistently. They don’t have a QB, offensive line, or pass rush for all intents and purposes. There might not be a single team in the league that I’d take the Eagles over. I’m going with the Cowboys here. W Cowboys 38, Eagles 33

GIANTS AT REDSKINS I thought about making this game my upset special of the week, but I didn’t for two reasons. The first reason is because I’ve been going heavy on upsets in recent weeks and getting burned for it. That’s probably just a consequence of me being terrible at picking NFL games, but I think it would be a good idea for me to reel the upset picks in a little bit. The second reason is because the Giants have gone into their late season mode, especially on the defensive side of the football. Everybody talked about how Eli Manning threw three touchdowns and rebounded from a string of unusually poor games. But the bigger story is New York’s pass rush, which absolutely abused Green Bay’s O-Line in that Sunday Night game. They recorded 7 QB Hits and 5 sacks. And those are only the stats that show up in the box score. Who knows how many plays were influenced by that pass rush? We have no way of knowing how much the Pack had to alter their game plan to account for the consistent linebacker blitzes. One interesting thing to note is that of the Giants five sacks, four of them were recorded by linebackers. For the last two years, the Giants have recorded most of their sacks with the defensive ends. This could be a sign that Tom Coughlin and defensive coordinator Perry Fewell might be working in more blitzes instead of conventional four man pass rushing schemes. Against a poor offensive line like Washington’s, those new schemes will be very effective. I’m taking the Giants.L Redskins 17, Giants 16

WEEK 14

                                      LUCKSTRONG

Belichick and Brady. Lombardi and Starr. Walsh and Montana. Dungy and Manning. Chuck and Luck. With this week’s last second win over the Detroit Lions, we have been introduced to what will be the iconic team of the 2010s. And we have also been introduced to the QB that will define the next decade. Andrew Luck now has eight wins in his first season, which is better than any other QB who was selected first overall. He’s on pace to break Cam Newton’s rookie passing yards record. Had the Colts not let up a dumb touchdown to Cecil Shorts in their Week 3 loss to Jacksonville, they would be 9-3. That’s right, 9-3. The 2008 Miami Dolphins hold the record for the biggest improvement from the previous season, going from 1-15 to 11-5. It’s possible for the Colts to tie that mark if they win out. And with the way Luck has been playing, I can’t discount the possibility of that happening.

Rich Gannon called him, “as ready for the NFL as any player I've ever seen." Jon Gruden said, “I've never met a guy like Andrew Luck at this stage of the game." My Canadian Colts’ fan friend Keith (remember him from the first ten pages of the book?) called dibs on the fantasy team name, “All We Need is LUCK” even as the 2011 season was ending. Everybody that makes contact with Andrew Luck or watches him on Sunday has nothing but positive things to say. Can you ever remember any quarterback that has done anything close to what Andrew Luck has done? Has there ever been a single player-not just a quarterback, but a player- that has been more ready for every aspect of NFL life than Andrew Luck? He has already lead four game winning drives just this season. He has thrown for over 1,000 yards more than the guy taken directly after him: RG3. Different styles, I know, but that’s just impressive. Please keep in mind that he’s doing this with a cobbled together O-Line, an offense where Reggie Wayne is just about the only significant non-rookie skill position player, and an extremely suspect secondary that has forced Luck to throw at least 35 times per game in all but two games so far. However, he pulled the biggest rabbit yet out of his hat this past Sunday.

Lions are up 33-28. Colts have the ball at their own 25 yard line. 1:07 left. Luck had been intercepted twice and strip-sacked once. His completion percentage hovered around .500. Here’s how the drive went.

Luck snaps the ball on first and ten and is immediately under duress. He dodges the defensive end coming from his right and steps up in the pocket. After a quick second of scanning the field, he takes off running for nine yards. The ball is then spiked.

Luck faces third and one. He takes a five step drop, and then casually tosses in a bullet to Reggie Wayne. Wayne was about twenty yards downfield and had three defenders within ten yards. In other words, he has found a very tiny bit of space. None of the defenders were even close to getting a hand on the football. The gain takes them to the Lions’ 40. The ball is spiked.

Luck drops back on second down and finds nobody open. He anticipates the pressure coming up the middle and decides it’s time to get out of dodge. He quickly escapes the pocket by scrambling outside the right tackle. After a sixteen yard run, Luck is out of bounds at the Lions’ 24.

After an incomplete pass brings up second and ten, Luck takes another five step drop and fires. It’s caught by Dwayne Allen for ten yards near the left sideline. This was a fairly easy throw: the two wide receivers on the left side both ran go routes. The two CBs were cleared out and Allen ran an intermediate out route against a linebacker. Good job by Luck of identifying favorable matchups.

Two straight incompletions are thrown by Luck. The first one is in the end zone and right on the body of Reggie Wayne, who briefly catches it before having it knocked out by the CB. The second one is thrown into double coverage and almost intercepted by Jacob Lacey. The Lions take a timeout on third and ten, after which Luck is forced to throw a pass away. There are eight seconds left, the Colts have no timeouts, and Luck essentially has one chance to score from the 14 yard line after throwing three straight incompletions. Detroit essentially won the game, they just have to make it official.

Oh. My. God.

TOUCHDOWN!!!! DONNIE AVERY!!! ANDREW LUCK!!!!!! WOOOOOOWWWW!!!!!!!!!

I briefly went into Gus Johnson mode at the end of that description, but I digress. There is no rookie QB that I can ever remember that could pull off that drive. Just advancing the ball 75 yards in crunch time is impressive enough. But a rookie QB managing the clock that impressively? That’s unheard of. Equally unheard of is throwing the fourteen yard winning touchdown pass on the last play of regulation after throwing three straight incompletions. It seems like with QBs in two minute situations, there’s a snowball effect. I don’t have any actual stats on it, nor am I sure that statistics exist on the subject. But it feels like whenever a QB throws some incompletions in clutch situations: say, two in a row, that drive usually goes no further. Maybe it’s because in bounds completions keep the clock running and don’t allow defenses to disguise coverages or call anything that takes a lot of pre-snap motion. I just know that it’s extremely difficult to shake off three straight incompletions on a big drive. And yet, Andrew Luck made it look easy. I love the Luck era already.

   

ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 14     

• OK, so the Steelers and Bengals are both two games up on the Jets. If there is a three way tie at 9-7 for that last Wild Card spot, it would come down to record within the AFC. The Jets would theoretically have the best AFC record if the teams tied at 9-7. Their remaining schedule consists of Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Buffalo. The Mark Sanchez era is hopefully over.  And with those facts in mind, guess who might be returning from his cracked ribs injury this week? TEBOW!!!!!! I’m not saying that another miraculous Tebow run is going to happen. I still fully expect the Jets to screw it up in some way, assuming that they ever get the chance to catch Pittsburgh or Cincy in the first place. But if Tebow were to lead another miraculous run, isn’t this the exact scenario that it would happen in? By the way, this is the only entertaining thing that I can think of about my team before they take another defensive end at pick number 13 in this year’s draft.
• I have no idea what to think about Seattle any more. In one game, I have gone from feeling like I have them completely nailed down to not knowing what’s going on. Russell Wilson was legitimately good. He made virtually no major errors and came up with big plays when the chips were down. The Bears were playing tons of soft zone coverage, and Wilson made them pay for it. A lot of people were bailing on Wilson earlier in the season, but he proved that he could make sound decisions in tough situations.
• Did you know that Niners’ HC Jim Harbaugh played Screech’s cousin on an episode of Saved By the Bell? I don’t even know why I put that in there: I have never even watched a minute of Saved By the Bell. I guess it’s just because I’m writing this at midnight and I felt like pilfering the Bleacher Report’s news feed because I’m lazy.

• It’s kind of unbelievable that my “Denver will go on a season long winning streak” prediction from four or five weeks ago has come true. Andrew: 1, Football: 100 or so. Maybe it’s a little bit too early to count the streak as having been completed already. After all, there are still four more games to go. But I don’t foresee the Raiders giving the Broncos any problems whatsoever. I’ve seen Matt Giordano have to make too many touchdown saving tackles twenty yards downfield to have any measure of confidence in the Raiders’ D. Anybody who has bothered to read this far in the book probably knows full well how Peyton Manning vs the Raiders’ secondary is going to end. I’m going with Denver by two touchdowns. W Broncos 26, Raiders 13

                

WEEK 14 PICKS: 12/5/12

RAMS AT BILLS This is a classic “loser goes home” game. The winner is also probably going home, so that kind of takes a lot of the drama out of the whole thing anyways. I really like the direction that the Rams are headed in. Any team that goes 1-0-1 against the Niners is OK in my book. The Rams’ pass rush really harassed Colin Kaepernick, and it happened against a very good Niners’ O-Line. In fact, the entire Rams’ defense is pretty underrated. St Louis happens to be ranked 9th in total defensive DVOA for a reason. They’re a disciplined team that has a 100+ tackle per year guy (James Laurinaitis), two good pass rushers (Chris Long and Robert Quinn), and a potentially emerging cornerback (Janoris Jenkins). That should be satisfactory to shut down Buffalo unless C.J. Spiller goes bonkers. I’m taking St Louis by a field goal. W Rams 15, Bills 12

CHIEFS AT BROWNS I’m going to take the Browns and not explain myself. When a game is this crappy, I feel like I reserve the right to say that.W Browns 30, Chiefs 7

COWBOYS AT BENGALS Do you know that Dez Bryant came close to having three straight 100 yard receiving games? No, really, he did. Could security entourage guy be one of the NFL’s top ten receivers by the middle of 2013? Time Out: High five if you bought the book and got that reference. It’s definitely interesting to think about. My point is: who on Cincinnati can cover Dez Bryant? Leon Hall isn’t the same corner that he was before his ACL injury. I definitely wouldn’t feel comfortable with putting rookie Dre’ Kirkpatrick on Bryant. And I definitely wouldn’t feel comfortable with putting Pacman Jones on Bryant. In fact, any situation that involves Pacman Jones and Dez Bryant probably isn’t ending well. Plus, I can’t spot a person on the Bengals’ D that could take over Jason Witten duty.  This is a matchup between two average teams and it will come down to who can take the other team’s best weapon away. The Cowboys can stick Brandon Carr on A.J. Green. The Bengals can put nobody on Dez Bryant. I’m taking Dallas on the road. W Cowboys 20, Bengals 19

TITANS AT COLTS The runaway train of good karma known as the Indianapolis Colts rolls on. That last second win against Detroit generated so much positive buzz around the Colts that it’s gonna be tough to convince me that they’ll lose it at home against the Titans. I think this game will be closer than a lot of people think because the Colts might get caught looking ahead to their two games against Houston in the final three weeks. They’re a young team that’s playing a divisional opponent after a big win, so this situation stinks of a letdown. However, I just can’t pick against Andrew Luck unless there’s a very substantial reason for it. The Colts made a believer out of me with that last second win. I’m not entirely convinced that they’re going to blow it against a mediocre team like Tennessee. I’ll take the Colts by a touchdown. W Colts 27, Titans 23

CHARGERS AT STEELERS So let me get this straight. After losing their last four games and seven games of their last eight, Norv Turner’s Chargers are flying cross-country to play in Pittsburgh, a place where they’ve never won a single game in franchise history. Oh, and they’re also going to be playing a 1:00 game against a Steelers team that has Ben Roethlisberger. And let’s not forget that they haven’t won a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone since December of 2006 (only forty more years until I’m the football version of Tim Kurkjian!) For some reason or another, I don’t feel good about San Diego in this game. Can’t quite put my finger on why, though. I’ll take Pittsburgh for a big win. L Chargers 34, Steelers 24

BEARS AT VIKINGS  With Percy Harvin out, I can’t pick the Vikes against quality opposition and feel good about it. Christian Ponder has thrown for under 200 yards in half of his games this season. I’m not confident that the problem is going to get any better against the Bears’ D and without Percy Harvin. The Vikes have lost 4 of their last 5 games because of a lackluster passing game and a few killer turnovers. There’s no reason to expect anything different here. I’m taking Chicago by at least a touchdown. L Vikings 21, Bears 14

RAVENS AT REDSKINS It’s entirely possible that Baltimore loses their last four games and goes 9-7. They have this road game against a re-energized Redskins’ team, home dates with the Broncos and the December version of the New York Giants, and then they wrap up against Cincinnati in what is essentially a playoff game for the Bengals. There are a lot of funky things that could happen against those teams. I’m not saying it’s going to happen: I’m just saying that it’s not entirely impossible. One reason why it might not happen is Baltimore’s run defense, which has been playing much better since the first half of the season. It was as if a switch flipped after their 43-13 loss against Houston. As of immediately after that loss, they were letting up 142.8 rushing yards per game. Since then, they have allowed 101.8 yards per game. That would have put Baltimore among the top ten in stopping the run if they had been allowing that few all year. I feel like the improved run defense coupled with the emotional boost from Ray Lewis unexpectedly coming back to play this year after his injury (he says that he’s, “pissed off for greatness”, whatever that means) should be enough to carry Baltimore by Washington. It’s gonna be close and RG3 will always keep things exciting, but I’m taking Baltimore by a field goal. L Redskins 31, Ravens 28 (OT)

EAGLES AT BUCS The Phillies have won a game more recently than the Eagles have. No, seriously. The Eagles last won a game on September 30th and the Phillies last won a game on October 1st. That’s how bad things have gotten in Philly this year. One of Bill Simmons’ readers likened the Eagles to Survivor. Each week, somebody gets voted off of Andy Reid Island. Defensive line coach Jim Washburn lost this week’s immunity challenge was the latest coach to be fired. Can the Eagles get a single win for the rest of the season if their coaching staff is in this much disarray? They played well against the Cowboys, but I still don’t trust anything about them except for Bryce Brown. And he has fumble issues, which means that he’s a natural fit for the 2012 Eagles. My embargo on picking the Eagles is still in effect until I see them get a win. I’m going with Tampa. L Eagles 23, Bucs 21

JETS AT JAGUARS In typical Jet fashion, hope that the Sanchez era might be over was dangled in front of us like a chew toy in front of a dog, and then quickly yanked away. Rex Ryan has been named Mark Sanchez the starting QB for this week. And with that, the last hope for the Jets’ season has been crushed with a steel-toed boot. This is going to be yet another Jets game that I might not give ten minutes of my time for. I’m taking Jacksonville to win this game and setting the line at 20 for the number of Tebow close-ups. I’d take the over on that line just because there certainly won’t be anything else that’s worthy of attention in this game. L Jets 17, Jags 10

FALCONS AT PANTHERS It’s time for my UPSET PICK!!!! That’s right, I’m joining the mosh pit of columnists and talking heads who are waiting for the Falcons to fall. Just ask yourself: have the Falcons had any impressive wins over good teams this year? Their 27-21 win against the Broncos in Week 2 was probably the closest thing to an impressive win over a good team that they’ve had, but Peyton Manning wasn’t at 100% back then. And the Broncos still almost rallied back. Atlanta has also gone 7-1 in games decided by 7 points or under this year, which is a classic sign of a team that’s playing a little bit past their ceiling. Don’t forget that the Panthers would have beaten them back in Week 4 if not for a perfect storm of bad luck (Cam Newton’s fumble being recovered just short of the first down line), bad decisions (not going for it on fourth and one), and atrocious coverage (Roddy White’s catch over Haruki Nakamura). Besides, Cam Newton always seems to play well in completely meaningless games; i.e. the Monday Night game against Philly or Week 16 in 2011 against the Bucs. I’m taking the Panthers here. W Panthers 30, Falcons 20

DOLPHINS AT NINERS The season is just about over for the Dolphins. RIP to my far-flung AFC sleeper team. There’s no reason why the Niners should lose this game. However, I do have to give credit to the Dolphins for one thing. Miami played an admirable game against New England last week and was able to consistently pressure Tom Brady. If history is any indicator, I would expect a little bit of pressure on Colin Kaepernick, especially from the right side. Niners’ tackle Anthony Davis has been below average in recent weeks and I don’t think he’s ready to block Cameron Wake. But before I move on to the next game, I have to mention how underrated Cameron Wake is as a pass rushing specialist. He has eleven sacks for the season and at least eight sacks in each of the last three years. For a linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, that’s impressive. Still, Kaepernick’s ability to move outside of the pocket might serve to nullify a lot of Miami’s pass rush. I’m taking San Fran, 27-10. W Niners 27, Dolphins 13

CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS And the Arizona QB carousel rolls on. So as it turns out, Ryan Lindley wasn’t the answer at QB. Insert shocked face here. John Skelton will provide Cardinals’ fans with a more familiar name to curse out this Sunday against a Seahawks team that could be without both Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. Browner’s suspension begins with this game and Sherman is still appealing his case. I don’t think it will matter much for this game, but it’s going to be a huge problem down the road. However, for right now, Seattle is set up in a pretty good position. Seattle and Denver are the only teams that rank inside the Top 10 in DVOA for offense, defense, and special teams. In fact, the Seahawks might just be the most balanced team in the league right now. This is a pushover win for Seattle as they mentally prepare themselves for a showdown with San Francisco in Week 16. Seattle 31, Arizona 10. W Seahawks 58, Cardinals 0

SAINTS AT GIANTS I’m taking the Saints in my second upset pick of the week. The Giants are pulling out their classic “please don’t believe in us” act, which probably needs one more loss in order to be complete. If the Giants lose this game and Washington beats Baltimore this week, every single NFL personality in the country will dive head first onto the Washington bandwagon as it peels away at 50 mph. The Saints’ have a good enough offensive line to handle the Giants’ pass rush and a good enough passing game to take advantage of the Giants’ continuously suspect secondary. So I’d expect a fluky blowout win for the Saints before the Giants dismantle Atlanta next week. You’re not catching me off guard this year, New York. L Giants 52, Saints 27

LIONS AT PACKERS The Lions’ season is essentially over. Some poor execution against Houston and Indy put the final two nails in their coffin. This game is essentially going to come down to one key fourth quarter turnover and who can be the more efficient passer. Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are essentially a wash from a statistical standpoint, but all of the fundamentals are on Green Bay’s side. The Lions might be able to take a lead, but their awful rushing game and substandard secondary have repeatedly shown that they’re among the worst at holding it. I’m taking Green Bay. W Packers 27, Lions 20

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS This one is gonna be a classic. I’m leaning more towards New England because Houston has once again gotten incredibly unlucky on the injury front. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph can’t seem to fully rehab from his hamstring injury. He still hasn’t played since Week 11 against Jacksonville. Not just that, but slot corner Brice McCain and reserve cornerback Alan Ball are also injured. The loss of McCain is especially bad because there aren’t a whole lot of corners that can match up with Wes Welker. McCain was extremely effective in the slot before he went down for the year. New England can also call runs out of trips bunch formation and execute them with more effectiveness because they know that McCain won’t be there to step up into the box. Houston’s loss is New England’s gain because that opens up the seams to Welker and Aaron Hernandez. It also invites New England to throw on Kareem Jackson, an improved yet shaky second corner who in no way should be considered a number one coverage guy. I’d expect a big day from Brady and a Pats win. W Patriots 42, Texans 14

                                                             WEEK 15

                                                  DOWN WITH CHICAGO

The Bears’ 21-14 loss to the Vikings today dropped them to 8-5 for the season and continued a rapid and inevitable downslide. Even though it looked like they were on top of the world, there were a couple telltale signs of regression that I noticed. I’m not saying that I’m Nostradamus or anything (if you’ve gotten to this point in the book, you know that I’m nowhere close). All I did was pick up on a few warning signs and reason them out. Goodness knows that they weren’t especially hard to see.

We must first look at the most obvious culprit of overperforming teams. I am of course talking about the schedule. Fans have a tendency to overreact to extremes, which inherently clouds our understanding of future performance because most things in football will either progress or regress towards their expected levels as the season goes along. We overreacted to their gutting of Tony Romo and the Cowboys in Week 5. We were all blown away when they destroyed Jacksonville 41-3 and mauled Tennessee 51-20. It’s hard to distinguish when “what happened” is more important than “how it happened”, but this is clearly an instance where a win over the NFL’s worst should be taken at face value. The Bears went 7-1 in their first eight games while facing only three teams who are currently over .500. Since then, the Bears have faced nothing but teams who are over .500 and have gone 1-4. The lesson here is: beware of the team that looks too good, too early. If a surprise team hits its peak in October, especially against sub-par opposition, you can almost count on regression every single time.

   This is all before we get to the turnovers. In the Bears’ first eight games, they were forcing an average of three turnovers per game. Since then, they have forced 1.4 turnovers per game. The league average for turnovers forced per game through Week 14 of this year has been about 1.2. So we’re already seeing the Bears start to play like the above average defense that they are instead of the historically significant defense that they briefly looked like. Another thing that the Bears’ mostly lackluster opposition had in common was nonexistent running games. Out of the Bears’ first eight games, only one team (the Rams) rank in the top half of the league in rushing yards. There’s a distinct reason why teams don’t like to throw the ball in most capacities when they’re trying to hang on to a lead. Only seven teams in the league have gotten more takeaways through forced fumbles than through interceptions. The more a team puts the ball in the air, the more chance there is for error. That especially holds true against an opportunistic defense like the Bears’. On the other end of the spectrum, the Bears’ last five games were all against teams that ranked among the top seven in total rushing yards. Since turnovers were the Bears’ primary avenue to winning football games, it’s natural that the flow of wins would slow down as their number of forced turnovers slowed down.

   There were two other things that helped contribute to the Bears’ inflated stock. The first is fumble luck.They recovered 15 out of 22 fumbles, more than 50%, despite fumble recoveries being something that’s completely and totally random. The second is defensive touchdowns. Chicago’s defense scored seven touchdowns during their winning streak, which is more than most defenses score in an entire season. The line between skill and luck is highly ambiguous when it comes to forcing turnovers. Sometimes it’s good coverage, sometimes it’s a bad throw, sometimes the runner drops the football, etc. Most times it’s a mix of all of them. However, defensive touchdowns are almost entirely random. The Patriots have forced only one less turnover than the Bears have, yet they only scored two defensive TDs. And one of them was created when Brandon Moore’s buttocks viciously attacked Mark Sanchez. Can you really discern one thing that would make the Bears’ defense more likely to score touchdowns than the Pats’ defense? I certainly can’t.

A team that overperforms is a team that shows enough of their good qualities that it hides their bad ones. A team in regression lets all of their bad qualities show, thus overshadowing their good qualities. This was evident in the Bears’ loss to the Vikings this past week. Tomorrow, everybody will talk about how poorly Jay Cutler performed instead of the Bears’ stellar defense, which only allowed fourteen points and one drive of any substance. The fact that Christian Ponder could only amass 77 passing yards will definitely be overlooked. But that’s the way it is when a team regresses towards the man. This loss and their previous loss against Seattle had been brewing for weeks, yet nobody knew it. And that is perhaps the best thing I can tell you to do when you’re trying to look for the most likely team to regress. Make an honest evaluation of that team’s potential weaknesses, and then see if something doesn’t add up. Have they shown those weaknesses yet? Have they beaten an opponent that had the personnel to take advantage of those weaknesses? And above all, did they peak too soon? Big losses in November and early December after overly impressive early season wins are telltale signs of a team that might struggle down the stretch. The 2012 Bears are a living, breathing testament to that fact. Their loss to the Vikings was just the end product of a few factors regressing towards the mean. I wouldn’t be surprised if Chicago has a tough time advancing in the playoffs.

              

·                   RG3 AND THE REDSKINS

·           This past Sunday’s game between the Redskins and the Ravens doubled as a major moment in the career of Robert Griffin III. After the Skins almost lost the game because of their porous secondary, after defensive tackle Haloti Ngata smashed into Griffin twice, after Griffin suffered an injury that forced him to leave the game, the Skins still won. This was more than another crucial win for the Redskins, although that’s certainly part of it. And the four game win streak doesn’t tell the story, although it tells a significant portion of it. This was about Washington’s future, which looks awfully bright because of Robert Griffin III.

A huge part of being a quarterback is about the intangibles. The ability to be a leader of men is what separates the great QBs from those who are merely good. A leader has to be able to command respect from his teammates. From the little that I know about how the hierarchy of respect in an NFL team works, playing and excelling while injured is one of the surest ways to win points with teammates and fans. The penalty for not doing so is often overly harsh, even when the injury is truly debilitating, as Jay Cutler will be able to tell you after the 2010 NFC Championship game. RG3 passed the crucial test of leading a game winning drive while injured in one of the most pressure-packed situations that you’ll ever see. Yes, I know that Kurt Cousins finished the drive and went on to win the game in overtime. But don’t forget that RG3 was the one who put the Skins inside the Ravens’ 20 yard line near the end of regulation. Don’t forget that RG3 took a hit from a 340 pound man directly to his leg and still played afterwards. And don’t forget that Griffin was able to drive the Skins down the field in subsequent plays even though he couldn’t drive off of his left foot and didn’t know whether he had torn his ACL at the time. That’s more than just another win for the Redskins, that’s a turning point in the development and maturation of Robert Griffin. Everybody knew that at some point this season, both Luck and Griffin would have to carry their teams to victories. We’ve seen it from Luck time and time again, and now we’ve seen it from both Griffin and Cousins.

   This all started when RG3 was trying to lead a game winning drive with under two minutes to play. He took off running after seeing nothing open downfield. As Haloti Ngata approached to make the tackle, RG3 did the smart thing and slid to the turf. Remember those times against Atlanta and Carolina when he didn’t hook slide and paid the price for it? It looks like he is starting to learn his lesson. However, this injury was somewhat unavoidable. As RG hook slid, he soon found that 340-odd pounds of man came crashing into his leg. Exit, RG3. He had to be helped to the sideline and Kurt Cousins came into the game. But after one play, RG3 was back in there. Please keep in mind that neither RG nor anyone else knows for sure what the injury is. The best case scenario is probably a high ankle sprain. Worst case scenario is probably a torn ACL/MCL and the rest of the year on the bench. RG3 didn’t care. His team needed him. And herein lies one of the things that impressed me most about Robert Griffin’s performance. He was able to play hurt while seeming to understand limitations on his body that were not set even a minute previous. Any trained eye could see that RG3 couldn’t drive off of that leg and he knew it too. He recognized what he couldn’t do with this kind of injury and adjusted accordingly. Griffin stood tall in the pocket on first down and threw an underneath slant pattern to Santana Moss, who gained fifteen yards for a first down. After an incompletion to Pierre Garcon, RG recognized zone coverage on the next play and identified a small undefended pocket near the left sideline numbers. He knew that since Baltimore would play at least a little bit of off coverage, he wouldn’t need to zing the ball into the window and risk further ligament damage. He threw, and the ball floated before falling into the hands of Garcon, who had exploited the soft zone. That was good enough to take the Skins down to the 16 yard line. However, RG also recognized that he wasn’t getting enough drive off of his leg to merit staying in the game. Throughout this entire process, he seemed very aware of his body. He knew that he would have to throw harder once there was less field to work with, and he probably realized that he couldn’t do it. Kurt Cousins’ scrambling fastball to the corner of the end zone to tie the game is a throw that an injured RG couldn’t have made. Afterwards, RG3 said, “At some point you have to do what's right for the team. And if I'm playing the rest of that game, I probably would have hurt myself even more." And by the way, I need to give props to Cousins for actually finishing the comeback. His last throw was extremely difficult to pull off, and Cousins made it look easy.

   And then there was RG’s press conference. Remember when I said that a large part about being a QB is intangibles? Imagine being a Redskins’ fan. You’re sitting on pins and needles waiting for his press conference. You don’t know whether he tore his ACL or not. His season might be over, for all we know. Then, RG tells Sal Paolantonio ,”It don’t think it’s an ACL. I know what that feels like.” Then, he gets up in front of the associated press and says that he, “screamed after being hit. Like a man of course.” Don’t you at least feel a little bit better after seeing him smile and crack jokes in the press conference? That might seem inconsequential, but that coolness and cavalier attitude towards pressure translates to the field. When Joe Montana was leading the Niners on his long drive to beat Cincinnati in the Super Bowl, his teammates were nervous in the huddle until Montana looked at the stands and said, “Oh, look, there’s John Candy.” It got a laugh, calmed his teammates down, and the Niners went on to execute that drive and win the Super Bowl. It also doubles as the ultimate “Joe Montana was super cool” story. After seeing his press conference, I can imagine getting to a similar point with RG3 someday. Just know that what RG did in the last two minutes plus press conference of the Ravens’ game gave me the impression that I was wrong about him. He’s a franchise QB in every sense of the word.

        ODDS AND DEFENSIVE ENDS: WEEK 15

• After their dismembering of Houston, the Pats have now won twenty straight December home games dating back to December of 2002. In that statistic is everything you need to know about the Patriots’ dynasty. They’re one of the most dominant teams that the NFL has ever seen, nobody could/can beat them at home with any kind of reliability, and they upped their game to ridiculous levels when the chips were down. Every single year since Tom Brady tore his ACL, there has been at least a few people that predicted the end of the Patriots’ dynasty. And every single year, the Pats prove all the naysayers wrong. I’m convinced that the Patriots’ dynasty cannot ever be considered over until they convincingly lose a home game in the last six weeks of the season. Until that time, they are still the team to beat.
• Braylon Edwards is back on the Jets. If that isn’t the NFL equivalent of throwing your hands up in the air and saying, “Screw it, I completely give up”, then I really don’t know what is.
• With rookie QBs getting so much attention, it’s quite possible that the 2012 draft might be remembered for its class at a different position. Rookie running backs have been making a huge splash this year, and we might have found another one who could turn out to be a very good player. David Wilson of the New York Giants racked up 100 yards and two touchdowns on only thirteen carries. Granted, it was against the historically bad Saints’ defense. But I liked the raw physical tools I saw from him. His acceleration and open field speed are absolutely phenomenal. If he can hash out his fumble issues (we’ve seen Adrian Peterson and many others defeat Fumble Fever), then we might be looking at a whole new dimension to the Giants’ offense. If you’re looking for the playoffs’ most likely unsung hero, then look no further than David Wilson. Time Out: Considering that the Giants didn’t even make the playoffs, it probably would have been a good idea to look a little further than Wilson in retrospect.
• I was really tempted to go against Cincinnati against Philly, but I can’t pick the Eagles on a short week with any confidence. I think we’re going to see a Dinner Check game where the Eagles will ultimately end up paying the check. I’m going with the Bengals, 16-13. W Bengals 34, Eagles 13

                  WEEK 15 PICKS

PACKERS AT BEARS I’m taking the Packers here. The Bears have been too mistake prone lately to trust against a good team. Chicago turned the ball over four times the last time they played the Packers. Chicago also has some issues on defense. Charles Tillman’s performance has really dropped off since mid-season: Football Outsiders’ charting data shows that opponents have had a lot of success when throwing to Tillman’s side of the field. With Greg Jennings getting closer to 100% every week and Aaron Rodgers at QB, not being able to defend the deep out or the quick comeback to Tillman’s side is a big issue. The absence of Brian Urlacher is a much bigger deal than anybody realizes. He was the one who adjusted the front seven before the snap and coordinated the pass rush. Take him away, and the Bears’ ability to gain advantages with pre-snap movement is diminished. Chicago’s Two Deep Zone coverage will keep it close, but I think that the Packers will pull this one out.W Packers 21, Bears 13

GIANTS AT FALCONS Here’s some more evidence that the Falcons are the least respected 11-2 team of all time: The spread on this game is Falcons by one. An 11-2 team at home is only laying one point to a semi-consistent 8-5 team. You know what? I think that’s totally justified in this particular case. Atlanta has given people absolutely no reason to be confident. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has concluded that they’re an average team, and I don’t think that the DVOA is wrong about this. This all comes down to the fact that the Giants have an identity and the Falcons don’t. The Giants can throw and rush the passer with the best of them while the Falcons are still good at everything and not great at anything. I’m concerned about Roddy White or Julio Jones going over the top on Corey Webster because his speed is starting to diminish, but I’m not especially concerned about anything else. I’ll take the Giants in this one. L Falcons 34, Giants 0 Time Out: Andrew Goldstein from a few pages ago: “The Giants aren’t going to fool me this time.”

VIKINGS AT RAMS It’s time for my favorite type of late season matchup: a “loser goes home” game. The winner still has a shot at getting an NFC Wild Card spot, and the loser vacates all of their playoff hopes. Neither team looked especially impressive last week. St Louis emerged with a last second win over the mediocre Bills and the VIkings took advantage of Bad Jay Cutler to take care of the Bears. Ordinarily, I’d grab the team with the best player and count on him to come through, but the Rams were able to hold the Bills to just over 3 yards per rushing attempt last week. That’s pretty good. And unfortunately, picking the Vikings means buying Christian Ponder stock along with AP. Since Ponder has thrown for under 200 yards in five of his last seven games and has 4.88 yards per pass over that time span (John Skelton, the last QB listed in the Y/PA list on espn.com, has a 5.63), I’m not sure I want to believe in him. I’ll take St Louis. Cut to me weeping in front of my TV as Adrian Peterson runs for 250 yards and 4 TDs. Time Out: This is pretty much what happened. L Vikings 36, Rams 22

JAGUARS AT DOLPHINS I made a mistake and trusted the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Never again. I’m taking Miami to win and under 10 minutes of total screen time on the Red Zone Channel.W Dolphins 24, Jaguars 3

REDSKINS AT BROWNS I’m taking an upset here! If Ben Roethlisberger’s bad performance last week taught me anything, it’s that I shouldn’t trust QBs in their first couple of games back from bad injuries when they’re not 100%. Hey, wow, that sounds a lot like what RG3 is going to try to do. If he can’t go on Sunday, then Kurt Cousins is going to make his first start in a pressure-packed situation where the playoff hopes of Redskins’ nation is on his shoulders. But there’s another reason I’m making this pick. I’m starting to believe in Brandon Weeden and the Browns a little bit. I don’t think they’re one of the five worst teams in the league anymore. I’m not even sure that they’re in the bottom 10. It’s not a stretch to suggest that they could be 7-6 and in the thick of the playoff race. I’m predicting a 100 yard game from Trent Richardson and a Browns’ win.L Redskins 38, Browns 21

BUCS AT SAINTS The Bucs essentially let Nick Foles walk all over them in their two point loss to the Eagles last week. Tampa Bay has allowed almost 300 passing yards more than any other team in the league. It has also allowed 23 yards per game more than any other team in the league. And then there’s the Saints’ historically awful defense. It has allowed 437 yards per game to date, which would break the record for the most yards per game allowed in a season if it withstands the last three games. The stoppable force has met an object that’s all too willing to move. It’s going to be a shootout that comes down to whoever throws more interceptions. I have confidence that Drew Brees will make one less mistake than Josh Freeman. I’ll take New Orleans, 45-41.W Saints 41, Bucs 0

BRONCOS AT RAVENS And my Broncos prediction lives! Denver has yet to lose a game in the second half of the season. Judging by their last game and the events of this past week, I don’t think they’re in particular danger of losing this one. Baltimore ranks 21st in DVOA against number one receivers and dead last in DVOA against number two receivers. Every single Ravens’ CB is also at a severe height disadvantage against Demaryius Thomas. Things don’t look any better on the offensive side of the football for Baltimore. The week after a coordinator change will always be marked by a decline in performance. We’ve seen it happen with the Castillo-Bowles switch in Philly. The Chiefs are 0-5 since Romeo Crennel fired himself as the defensive coordinator. And we’re about to see it again here. I’m taking Denver.W Broncos 34, Ravens 17

COLTS AT TEXANS Welcome to the game of Week 15 and potentially the second half of the NFL Season. Since the Texans lost on Monday Night Football to the Patriots, the Colts now control their own destiny. If they win their final three games, they win the AFC South and can potentially claim the three seed in the AFC. Should the Texans win this game, they win the AFC South and the Colts will have to settle for a Wild Card spot. And with this huge game comes my second UPSET PICK!!!!! Yep, I’m going for the feel-good Colts. I have zero confidence in Jonathan Joseph’s hamstring, which pretty much means that I have little to no confidence that the entire Texans’ secondary can perform up to early season standards. Matt Schaub showed an alarming inability to make easy connections against a Pats’ D that played soft zone defense all the way. Plus, everybody knows that Chuck Pagano will probably be in the stadium and make an inspiring speech beforehand. The only thing that I’m worried about is J.J. Watt and the Texans’ pass rush potentially destroying Winston Justice and the Colts’ O-Line. However, Luck has amazing pocket instincts, so that problem is greatly alleviated by his ability to sense pass rushes and get the ball out quickly. I’m going with a 24-20 Colts win and a comeback win/career defining moment from Andrew Luck. L Texans 29, Colts 17

LIONS AT CARDINALS We have a matchup of the best 4-9 team of all time and one of the worst 4-9 teams of all time. The Cardinals have now visited both of the extremes this season and should start progressing towards their expected level of performance soon. And say what you will about them, but they can cause turnovers. They rank 4th in the league in turnovers forced with 28. Considering the Cardinals’ QB situation, it’s hard to imagine a much worse hand being dealt to a single defense. However, I think that Matt Stafford is going to get one too many possessions for the Cards to handle. I’m predicting a close Detroit victory and three Cardinals’ turnovers. L Cardinals 38, Lions 10

SEAHAWKS AT BILLS We have our wildly enjoyable Toronto game on the docket this week! Every year when we play the Toronto game, I think about how cool it would be to have a franchise there. Oh wait, no I don’t. It’s the Bills and someone else every year, and the game is always terrible. Sounds like the perfect atmosphere for a Seahawks’ regression. They won an easy home game by an absurd margin and have the most important game of their season in Week 16. You always have to be wary of seemingly easy games before big divisional matchups. I think that Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are going to be caught looking ahead to the Niners game. Since the Bills are officially out of the playoffs, this seems like the time for C.J. Spiller to go off for a 6 yard per carry game. I think that this is a trap game and the Bills will come out of Toronto with a W. L Seahawks 50, Bills 17

PANTHERS AT CHARGERS A late-season matchup of potential surprise playoff teams has turned into a snooze with no playoff ramifications whatsoever. Sounds like a good time to me! I feel like the Chargers took advantage of Ike Taylor’s absence last week and were more successful with their passing plays. It was a steady diet of short slants and curls that tested the man coverage ability of unheralded guys like Keenan Lewis, who weren’t able to respond. I’m taking a suddenly resurgent team that’s happy to be rid of Norv Turner at home over an inferior opponent. I’ll go with San Diego. L Panthers 31, Chargers 7

CHIEFS AT RAIDERS Raiders. Let’s move on. W Raiders 15, Chiefs 0

STEELERS AT COWBOYS I’m taking the Cowboys here. I was making McKayla Maroney’s not impressed face throughout that whole loss to the Chargers, and the fact that I just went back to the well on that McKayla Maroney joke for the umpteenth time should tell you that I need to wrap this book up soon. But I digress. Ben Roethlisberger is still not  100% healthy and I didn’t necessarily like what I saw in his first game back. A good portion of his 285 yards came in garbage time when the Steelers were down by two touchdowns or more. His throws had a lot less zip on them than they usually do, which would give me the indication that his shoulder is still not where it needs to be. I also feel like the Steelers are incapable of rushing the passer consistently. They rank 23rd in the league in sacks. Tony Romo won’t have much trouble improvising and moving out of the pocket in this one.  I’m predicting a back and forth game that Tony Romo ends by putting the Cowboys in position for a game winning field goal. I’ll take Dallas, 30-27. W Cowboys 27, Steelers 24 (OT)

NINERS AT PATRIOTS For the second week in a row, the Patriots will be involved in one of the best games of the season. On the one hand, the Patriots only have six days’ rest to prepare for one of the best teams in the league. On the other hand, the Niners have to travel to the east coast for a night game against the Brady-era Patriots in Gillette Stadium. This one is going to come down to turnovers. The Niners have the second least amount of giveaways in the league (12). Unfortunately for them, the Patriots have the least (10). The Pats are firing on all cylinders right now. Tom Brady is playing the best that he has played since 2010, Stevan Ridley is spearheading an emergent Patriots’ running game, and the defense has forced a turnover in every game so far. With the Niners about to go to Seattle to play a crucial divisional game, I feel like the Pats are going to make another statement here. The only teams that should be favored against the Patriots are teams that can get into shootouts with them and take advantage of their one glaring flaw, a depleted secondary. The Pats haven’t played anybody like that since they beat the Broncos and a not quite healthy Peyton Manning. I’m not sure that Kaepernick or the Niners can beat them by a score like 38-35. I’m taking the Patriots, 31-17. L Niners 41, 34 Patriots 34

JETS AT TITANS I swore to myself it wouldn’t happen, but the Jets have sucked me back in. No, literally. They have sucked in their last two games, managed to win, and I’m officially in on them again. Screw it, I’m taking the Jets. Maybe I am still a fan. L Titans 14, Jets 10 Time Out: Sheesh, that was a brutal week for me. I briefly considered stopping work on the book and actually working on my homework after that one. But then I thought, “Naaaaah.”